Corona Virus and events

Definitely heading that way.

Something similar to the foot and mouth of 2001 - I remember a host of things cancelled but most notably the Ballycotton 10 (aside from St Patricks Day, 6 nations, Cheltenham etc) which ended up being held in June.

Bet they won't cancel Mass though....

rovers_runner wrote:

Can't see them being bothered with Parkrun, nobody travelling a distance to take park. Local people in a local event.

What about local people who have recently travelled and have no symptoms?

The cancellation (or is it just a postponement?) of the Ireland-Italy game does set off some alarm bells.

But the Irish Govt does have form in this regard. Back in 2003 various countries' Special Olympics teams were told that they weren't welcome on account of the SARS panic of that time.

In June 2003 it was eventually conveyed to the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region that they'd be tolerated. Have a look at the official WHO figures at the time the decision was made:

https://www.who.int/csr/sars/country/2003_06_06/en/

Going by today's panicked reaction the Irish Govt would have banned the Canadians and Americans.

Granted, world travel has increased massively over the intervening years but, from a European perspective, back in 2003 we had Schengen and we had Ryanair flights etc. (Then again the Ryanair trick of calling something Frankfurt Hahn etc is almost like flying people into areas so remote from their intended destinations, 125+ km in some cases, that it's a bit like a quarantine regime).

For race organisers they're in a completely different position than St Patrick's Day parades/gatherings etc. Race organisers know or ought to know the nationality of a large percentage of their participants. It makes any so-called risk assessment much easier, even before engaging with the health authorities.

The Irish boxing delegation are returning from Italy today. It'd appear that we'll take the medieval-plague-is-upon-us approach at national level but whether it generates any new-found political interest in funding the health service is another matter.

At the end of the day I fear that a number of perfectly safe events in Irelan will be cancelled out of the symbolism of being seen to 'do something', e.g. wear a hi-vis vest and stare mournfully at Shannon flooding whilst nodding seriously every so often etc.

However, I strongly doubt that other countries will hit the 'national panic' button. Sure, it'd play very well as a dog whistle in some countries to be 'keeping out the foreign threat' but braver politicians, better-equipped health systems, and the likelihood of a temperature rise (with consequent drop in viral survival rates outside a host) should all contribute to the situation becoming a properly-assessible risk over the coming weeks.

WesternStorm wrote: »

I am also booked to do the Barcelona marathon on March 15th. Thankfully I have free cancellation on the accomodation until check in day, so it gives me the luxury to monitor the situation for another few weeks before making a call on it.

same here, can cancel my accomodation up to the 12th. will see how things pan out in the next week or so.

average_runner wrote: »

Ireland hasn't hit the panic button. Loads of Serie A games were cancelled last week and more this week. Tokyo marathon was cancelled also.

Both those countries have actual cases. Here it's a case of various Govt Ministers (e.g. Health, Sport etc) elbowing one another out of the way to stand beside a traffic light and roar 'turn red, I command you to turn red' and sure enough the light changing as it was expected to. We're in the phase of 'managing the message' and being seen to do something.

If they force the IRFU to cancel events now then I can't see why people would hope that the Limerick marathon would survive in May, as we're into a different version of the Irish tradition of what-about-ery.

For events outside Ireland it'll be a nervous few weeks ahead to see what'll be cancelled but if it's like the SARS or Asian Bird Flu panics then we've at least another two months of drama ahead.

glacial_pace71 wrote: »

Both those countries have actual cases. ...

I think you're missing something.

Paris half cancelled - 1 days notice!.
All events of 5000 or more cancelled in France.

robinph wrote: »

All depends what stats you are comparing between the flu and covid19. Some sites list 0.1% death rate for flu, of those infected but could vary between 0.4‰ and 3% for Covid19, or even 15% if they just talk about over 80 year olds.

I'm not concerned about a difference between 0.1% and 0.4% as whilst it several times higher it's still negligible.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51540981

robinph wrote: »

Keep off cruise ships is generally good advice to stay healthy.

Can't imagine their great running on anyway

robinph wrote: »

All depends what stats you are comparing between the flu and covid19. Some sites list 0.1% death rate for flu, of those infected but could vary between 0.4‰ and 3% for Covid19, or even 15% if they just talk about over 80 year olds.

I'm not concerned about a difference between 0.1% and 0.4% as whilst it several times higher it's still negligible.

This is not normally the place to debate medicine but I'm sick of the misinformation and misunderstanding about this.

As a doctor and following this closely, I have not seen any papers that indicate 0.4% mortality as likely. The figure generally estimated is 2-3%, though of course there is considerable uncertainty.

Yes, 0.1% death rate for flu is the generally quoted rate, though of course this varies considerably from year to year.

So, 20-30 times the death rate of flu is our best guess.

But, let's say we accept the extremely low end of the estimate as a 0.4% death rate.

You may regard this 0.4% mortality as negligible, I can assure you that puts you in the minority. Anyone working in this area would regard this figure as high.

As there is no vaccine and no prospect of one anytime soon, and we are only getting started with this outbreak, it is reasonable to expect a lot of deaths worldwide and perhaps in Ireland.

And the figure of 15-20 % needing hospitalisation and 5-10% with very serious illness needing ICU or similar treatment is HORRENDOUS. This may be the real problem here. The hospitalisation rate for flu is only around 1% and needing ICU care is very very rare for flu. In fact I don't think I can recall ever seeing it.

ICU care is incredibly resource intensive. It requires very high staffing, lots of resources and money, and depends on staff who are already in short supply. There are very few ICU beds around as it is. A decent sized Dublin hospital like Connolly Hospital only has 5-6 ICU beds and only 2 of these are in isolation and these are already full every day. A typical COVID patient needing ICU will be there for weeks. Naas hospital has one isolation ICU bed. I could go on.

What happens when you get 10, 20 or 100 extra ICU cases? What happens when you get ICU staff out sick? What happens to the rest of the hospital? There will be no surgeries for a start. The entire hospital will be grossly affected in a system that was already close to breakdown.

What happens if and when the entire country shuts down, with schools, business and shops closed? I'm not saying this WILL happen, but there is a decent chance of it. The UK is already contemplating shutting down entire cities as reported in the papers this morning.

What about the economic and social effects of doing this?


Now, I'm normally someone who gets annoyed at people over-estimating risk and I'd normally be someone who'd argue for a calm response to threats, but this situation is extremely worrying. And it's not going away. This is not likely to be over and done quickly like SARS, this threat may last for years. And even if the threat were actually low, is that how government and people will treat it? The US state of Washington is now in a state of emergency after just one death in the entire US so far. Expect similar strong reactions everywhere. This will greatly affect all of us, rightly or wrongly.

And for those who like to point out the risk is really for old and sick people as if this somehow makes it ok, then I don't know what to tell you except that you have a very strange way of looking at the world if you can so readily dismiss this cohort. These are our parents, relatives and friends. They are not disposable. They are real people too.

You might be 25 and healthy and feel like you have nothing to worry about but some of use are looking at a slightly bigger picture.

Once again, I'm not saying the worst case scenario WILL happen, I'm saying there's a decent chance this could get bad and that if it's bad it will be very bad indeed. And even if it isn't, the uncertainty around it will overshadow and haunt us for a long time. No mater what happens, we'll still be fretting over this in 2 months' time.

I'd love to be wrong about all this of course.

And, personally, I'm training for Manchester and I'd say it's 50/50 at best, probably less.

healy1835 wrote: »

If Manchester doesn't pan out, I'm banking the training the just moving along.

same here. Training wont be lost - I wont be doing a Marathon for the sake of it.

Was just thinking earlier that at the back end of last year, my main goal was a sub 60 10 miler - the HM in Bohermeen and then Manchester spawned from that.

Should M'Chester be cancelled, then I've still achieved my goal.
Plenty of local races to be done.

sideswipe wrote: »

I was looking at that. Did some research on the events section and came up with this thread which relates to the same route as this year. The general consensus is that it's a tough route but I suppose beggars can't be choosers.

Tralee is definitely a tough route - but somehow I still managed to run my lifetime PB on that very course! (I was in awesome shape that year)

Meath Athletics are cancelling various events this weekend. IMO this is completely uncalled for.

I'm all for caution and I can see this situation getting bad over time but there is NO reason to cancel a local XC event this week.

As my post above says I can see this situation getting serious in the coming weeks but right now there is zero risk in a small local event. There'd be as much risk buying milk in the shop, frankly.

Burkie1203 wrote: »

Bohermeen half in that category?

Not as of now. They say it's up to Bohermeen AC.

The events are kids XC and indoors events I think. Of course the kids are already together in their schools which are not closed!

It's utterly pointless and only adds to the panic.

People say "ah sure you can't be too careful" which is ok up to a point but fear and panic are also harmful and spread a lot faster than a virus!

What I see happening now is a snowball of one cancelled events leads to another and another as everybody panics and nobody wants to be 'brave'.

Small local outdoor events have no risk as things stand. Official advice is to not cancel events.