new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

all about the mane · 24-02-2020 01:20PM

givyjoe wrote: »

If that's the quality of post you can come up with in response, take a break. In the last hour you've literally offered nothing constructive. You cant even bother to check basic facts, reporters making up figures to sell papers you said?

What exactly is rubbish about the actual live numbers of actual confirmed cases?! Bizarre ramblings. You were waffling on repeating my post referring to the 'worst case scenario' numbers being way off, only to acknowledge that it would only take a fraction of such numbers to overwhelm our ICU beds capacity.

Again, referring to the official numbers ~20% are critical. Again, referring to my earlier post, in February last year of 2083 cases of flu, only 5% were critical. I've no desire to get involved with stats back and forward, but if you're going to dismiss them, you're going to need to back it up with something other than "rubbish".

Chances are, that 20% figure in meaningless

MD1990 · 24-02-2020 01:20PM

Could be some positives if gets bad here.

Might help with obesity & encourage people to live a better lifestyle.

Candamir · 24-02-2020 01:22PM

givyjoe wrote: »

If that's the quality of post you can come up with in response, take a break. In the last hour you've literally offered nothing constructive. You cant even bother to check basic facts, reporters making up figures to sell papers you said?

What exactly is rubbish about the actual live numbers of actual confirmed cases?! Bizarre ramblings. You were waffling on repeating my post referring to the 'worst case scenario' numbers being way off, only to acknowledge that it would only take a fraction of such numbers to overwhelm our ICU beds capacity.

Again, referring to the official numbers ~20% are critical. Again, referring to my earlier post, in February last year of 2083 cases of flu, only 5% were critical. I've no desire to get involved with stats back and forward, but if you're going to dismiss them, you're going to need to back it up with something other than "rubbish".

Ok. Let me try again for the folks at the back.

You can’t draw meaningful conclusions from incomplete data sets.

Runaways · 24-02-2020 01:22PM

Think I posted this in the wrong thread. Hope it’s ok to put it here

Just joined to post this.

Couple of days Back from two weeks in Cambodia. Oh boy. Aside from the three airports I passed through there and back being full of Asians and others wearing the pointless masks, there wasn’t any kind of screening except one.
On the way home in phnom phenm airport, it seems certain international airlines were forcing people to get tested at check in. Not sure what the procedure was but it only looked like a temperature check tbh. Dublin being my final destination I wasn’t tested.

As to the rest of it Asia is pretty much the same wherever you go. I was in Koh Rong, a small very basic island off the coast, nearest port town Sihanoukville. Yes that Sihanoukville. More about that in a minute.
Third world country with third world facilities if you could call them that.
Bum guns alone are going to see this spread far and wide and fast. Unless you only use your own toilet exclusively in your room and wash the bejesus out of your hands, it’s the only option in every bar restaurant cafe etc. and how many have used it that day before you?
Three planes over and three back and again half the plane wearing the pointless masks and half not.

Cambodian govt have taken what’s best described as a devil may care attitude to it all and I believe there’s another infected ship in Sihanoukville with passengers quarantined on board. They’ve also allowed cargo off the ship it seems.
Some Irish onboard too I heard. Had to spend five hours in that town to wait for a bus to get to Phnom Penh.

Not knowing what to do I emailed Dublin airport before my flight explaining where I was and should I present upon arrival. In fairness they responded pretty quickly and asked me for my phone and email address. Then came back to me with a HSE number to call which I duly had to ring when I got home as a family member had been rushed to hospital while I was in the air and we were all called to the hospital.

Called the number and explained where I ld been what airports and was i ok to go to the hospital and visit as it’s urgent. They said don’t but if I have to wear a mask and make nurses aware before I go in. I didn’t end up going as it’s a respiratory issue she has. They took my details on the phone also and told me to try self isolate if possible and call immediately if I have any symptoms or begin to feel unwell. Nothing so far but had a bad cough going over anyways which has abated somewhat. (Smoker) it’s only been four days home though.

Based on what I saw over there and just how busy those airports are, I’d say there’s untold numbers infected and not showing symptoms yet.
Some of the panic button pushers online are a bit much and I don’t mean to do that but wouldn’t do any harm to stock up on essentials and take all the precautions re cleaning and food prep etc. we all know there’s absolutely no way our health service is up to dealing with even a few cases of this and our too laid back sure it won’t get here attitude could be our undoing in a huge way. We’d want to start testing arrivals from abroad immediately I reckon.

Anyways thats all.

DrumSteve · 24-02-2020 01:22PM

MD1990 wrote: »

Could be some positives if gets bad here.

Might help with obesity & encourage people to live a better lifestyle.

And wash their hands after they take a piss.

all about the mane · 24-02-2020 01:25PM

Runaways wrote: »

Think I posted this in the wrong thread. Hope it’s ok to put it here

Just joined to post this.

Couple of days Back from two weeks in Cambodia. Oh boy. Aside from the three airports I passed through there and back being full of Asians and others wearing the pointless masks, there wasn’t any kind of screening except one.
On the way home in phnom phenm airport, it seems certain international airlines were forcing people to get tested at check in. Not sure what the procedure was but it only looked like a temperature check tbh. Dublin being my final destination I wasn’t tested.

As to the rest of it Asia is pretty much the same wherever you go. I was in Koh Rong, a small very basic island off the coast, nearest port town Sihanoukville. Yes that Sihanoukville. More about that in a minute.
Third world country with third world facilities if you could call them that.
Bum guns alone are going to see this spread far and wide and fast. Unless you only use your own toilet exclusively in your room and wash the bejesus out of your hands, it’s the only option in every bar restaurant cafe etc. and how many have used it that day before you?
Three planes over and three back and again half the plane wearing the pointless masks and half not.

Cambodian govt have taken what’s best described as a devil may care attitude to it all and I believe there’s another infected ship in Sihanoukville with passengers quarantined on board. They’ve also allowed cargo off the ship it seems.
Some Irish onboard too I heard. Had to spend five hours in that town to wait for a bus to get to Phnom Penh.

Not knowing what to do I emailed Dublin airport before my flight explaining where I was and should I present upon arrival. In fairness they responded pretty quickly and asked me for my phone and email address. Then came back to me with a HSE number to call which I duly had to ring when I got home as a family member had been rushed to hospital while I was in the air and we were all called to the hospital.

Called the number and explained where I ld been what airports and was i ok to go to the hospital and visit as it’s urgent. They said don’t but if I have to wear a mask and make nurses aware before I go in. I didn’t end up going as it’s a respiratory issue she has. They took my details on the phone also and told me to try self isolate if possible and call immediately if I have any symptoms or begin to feel unwell. Nothing so far but had a bad cough going over anyways which has abated somewhat. (Smoker) it’s only been four days home though.

Based on what I saw over there and just how busy those airports are, I’d say there’s untold numbers infected and not showing symptoms yet.
Some of the panic button pushers online are a bit much and I don’t mean to do that but wouldn’t do any harm to stock up on essentials and take all the precautions re cleaning and food prep etc. we all know there’s absolutely no way our health service is up to dealing with even a few cases of this and our too laid back sure it won’t get here attitude could be our undoing in a huge way. We’d want to start testing arrivals from abroad immediately I reckon.

Anyways thats all.

Have you voluntarily gone into isolation for a few weeks?

blanch152 · 24-02-2020 01:26PM

MD1990 wrote: »

Could be some positives if gets bad here.

Might help with obesity & encourage people to live a better lifestyle.

We could probably afford to return the pension age to 65 too.

givyjoe · 24-02-2020 01:26PM

Candamir wrote: »

Ok. Let me try again for the folks at the back.

You can’t draw meaningful conclusions from incomplete data sets.

But you can dismiss them with non existent data?! Whatever helps you sleep at night.

Runaways · 24-02-2020 01:29PM

all about the mane wrote: »

Have you voluntarily gone into isolation for a few weeks?

Believe it or not I have as I’m just finished in a job and took the holiday so I don’t have to be anywhere right now anyway except on the phone looking for a new job. Am kind of curious should I call them and have them come out n all that n see what the test process is and how rigorous

Also afraid in case I test positive. It would be my luck.

all about the mane · 24-02-2020 01:30PM

givyjoe wrote: »

But you can dismiss them with non existent data?! Whatever helps you sleep at night.

You can dismiss them without a complete data set.

citysights · 24-02-2020 01:31PM

DrumSteve wrote: »

And wash their hands after they take a piss.

Yes and another thing is that maybe it’s a wake up call about how connected we all are now right round the globe now and how easily things can spread.

Am not a doomsday merchant but would be wary of confined spaces now with large numbers of people and also of air con which i’ve always found very unhealthy.Can see more sustainable living on the cards.

all about the mane · 24-02-2020 01:31PM

Runaways wrote: »

Believe it or not I have as I’m just finished in a job and took the holiday so I don’t have to be anywhere right now anyway except on the phone looking for a new job. Am kind of curious should I call them and have them come out n all that n see what the test process is and how rigorous

So you are staying in the house, and eliminating any contact with the outside world?

Runaways · 24-02-2020 01:32PM

all about the mane wrote: »

So you are staying in the house, and eliminating any contact with the outside world?

I am.
Mad part is my housemates a nurse in a major hospital. He’s not bothered so I’m not.

all about the mane · 24-02-2020 01:32PM

Runaways wrote: »

I am.
Mad part is my housemates a nurse in a major hospital. He’s not bothered so I’m not.

How did you get back from the airport?

givyjoe · 24-02-2020 01:36PM

all about the mane wrote: »

You can dismiss them without a complete data set.

There is no complete data set. The only way it would be complete is if every single case of flu and covid19 were documented, regardless of the level of severity. They aren't, won't and never will be. Both viruses have cases where they will not be officially recorded, clinging to this hope that isnt that serious and the numbers will come down to flu level mortality (without a vaccine) is delusional.

all about the mane · 24-02-2020 01:38PM

givyjoe wrote: »

There is no complete data set. The only way it would be complete is if every single case of flu and covid19 were documented, regardless of the level of severity. They aren't, won't and never will be. Both viruses have cases where they will not be officially recorded, clinging to this hope that isnt that serious and the numbers will come down to flu level mortality (without a vaccine) is delusional.

How do you know without a complete data set?

givyjoe · 24-02-2020 01:39PM

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Acknowledging that the data is incomplete and should be regarded with a pinch of salt isn't dismissing the data.

There's a trend in this thread that any data indicating things won't be too bad is scoffed at while any data that indicates something much worse is going on is taken as gospel. The reality is we just don't know. It's a developing situation.

Except that isnt what the poster in question is saying, they have literally dismissed it out of hand as has mane just now! Can you point me to the data suggesting it won't be too bad? All I keep seeing are comparisons to flu and flu death rates.

givyjoe · 24-02-2020 01:40PM

all about the mane wrote: »

How do you know without a complete data set?

So you've always gone to the doctor every time you've been sick have you? You really need that explained do you?

Runaways · 24-02-2020 01:41PM

all about the mane wrote: »

How did you get back from the airport?

Taxi.

Gruesome aside, final flight home putting my luggage up before take off and forgot my headphones in the bag so reached back up and somehow sliced my finger wide open on the lock. Blood everywhere. Given loads of space by people trying to find their seats. Like it was gushing. Found an attendant who very helpfully gave me loads of napkins and a plaster. *Cant attach pic some reason.
That was me all the way til Dublin. Felt so bad for
the two ladies beside me. One was kind about it the other looking at me like I had the plague she asked to move seats.
Don’t fly ethiad. They haven’t a clue when it comes to first aid.

skimpydoo · 24-02-2020 01:43PM

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

Try not to worry.

I'm not worried yet but I will be curtailing some of my activities.

DrumSteve · 24-02-2020 01:44PM

givyjoe wrote: »

Except that isnt what the poster in question is saying, they have literally dismissed it out of hand as has mane just now! Can you point me to the data suggesting it won't be too bad? All I keep seeing are comparisons to flu and flu death rates.

If we prepare for the worst possible scenario, we should be okay.

Everything I'm seeing so far is making it look like this is clocking in at a 9% mortality rate, in line with SARS. Looking at current strategies, it seems to be the case that countries are looking to contain it as long as possible, but I think that horse has long bolted.

The problem here is the relatively long incubation rate of the disease.

Though I'd imagine as it gets warmer, this may help kill it off for a bit until a vaccine is found.

DrumSteve · 24-02-2020 01:45PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Being the eternal ghoul I am, I’ll be curious to know who our Patient 1 will be, where they will have come from, what hospital they will be in, what is their place of work (eg restaurant server), where they will have been during incubation, and the HSE and media response.

Runaways wrote: »

Taxi.

Gruesome aside, final flight home putting my luggage up before take off and forgot my headphones in the bag so reached back up and somehow sliced my finger wide open on the lock. Blood everywhere. Given loads of space by people trying to find their seats. Like it was gushing. Found an attendant who very helpfully gave me loads of napkins and a plaster. *Cant attach pic some reason.
That was me all the way til Dublin. Felt so bad for
the two ladies beside me. One was kind about it the other looking at me like I had the plague she asked to move seats.
Don’t fly ethiad. They haven’t a clue when it comes to first aid.

We have a winner!

drkpower · 24-02-2020 01:47PM

givyjoe wrote: »

And how you come to this conclusion? Have you any stats to counter whatever it is you believe to be rubbish?

77,000 cases in a country of a billion people
That means .000077 infection rate
Apply that to Ireland; sure it’s only a few cases
Easy peasy this stuff.

We definitely have enough data to make informed assessments.......

Runaways · 24-02-2020 01:48PM

DrumSteve wrote: »

We have a winner!

Haha. Please god no.
I’m not even going the shops never mind the gym or anything. Wouldn’t fancy being the one. But how many flights a day into Dublin fron all over?
There’s people here have it already we just don’t know yet I’d say.

all about the mane · 24-02-2020 01:49PM

Runaways wrote: »

Taxi.

Gruesome aside, final flight home putting my luggage up before take off and forgot my headphones in the bag so reached back up and somehow sliced my finger wide open on the lock. Blood everywhere. Given loads of space by people trying to find their seats. Like it was gushing. Found an attendant who very helpfully gave me loads of napkins and a plaster. *Cant attach pic some reason.
That was me all the way til Dublin. Felt so bad for
the two ladies beside me. One was kind about it the other looking at me like I had the plague she asked to move seats.
Don’t fly ethiad. They haven’t a clue when it comes to first aid.

So besides the taxi man and your housemate you have had no other contact?

Mic 1972 · 24-02-2020 01:51PM

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Acknowledging that the data is incomplete and should be regarded with a pinch of salt isn't dismissing the data.

There's a trend in this thread that any data indicating things won't be too bad is scoffed at while any data that indicates something much worse is going on is taken as gospel. The reality is we just don't know. It's a developing situation.

There is a lot of actual data available, we have been 2 months solid into this and numbers have piled up. While not being able to account for unreported cases, there are almost 80,000 reported cases that are showing consistent trends and can no longer be dismissed as "too early to draw conclusions"
Also rates are dynamics and have evolved over the last couple of weeks, people - and the press - are still referring to figures that no longer apply to the current data

Runaways · 24-02-2020 01:51PM

all about the mane wrote: »

So besides the taxi man and your housemate you have had no other contact?

One. My da with the keys to the house.

Candamir · 24-02-2020 01:51PM

drkpower wrote: »

77,000 cases in a country of a billion people
That means .000077 infection rate
Apply that to Ireland; sure it’s only a few cases
Easy peasy this stuff.

We definitely have enough data to make informed assessments.......

Gotta love statistics!

DrumSteve · 24-02-2020 01:52PM

Runaways wrote: »

One. My da with the keys to the house.

So 3 people?

I wonder how many people that Taxi man will pick up or the nurse will see in the ward.

givyjoe · 24-02-2020 01:53PM

drkpower wrote: »

77,000 cases in a country of a billion people
That means .000077 infection rate
Apply that to Ireland; sure it’s only a few cases
Easy peasy this stuff.

We definitely have enough data to make informed assessments.......

Genuinely not sure which side of the argument this sarcasm is aimed at but, what has the infection SO FAR in China got to do with the mortality or critical rates?

new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

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