new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

Candamir · 24-02-2020 12:28PM

givyjoe wrote: »

What are you talking about? I think you are completely misunderstanding the point i'm making and to be honest, I've now no idea what point you are trying to make. There are mild cases in both illnesses, we will not see most of these in the stats because they won't be needing hospital treatment.

Here's an example of critical cases as quoted by the IT last year. 2083 cases of which 112 were critical, thats 5%. As already quoted, the currently available stats for covid19 suggest a 20% severe/critical rate.

The point I’m making is that the numbers need to be taken with a very large heap of salt at this stage, and drawing conclusions from that data, by people without any epidemiological background (such as journalists who are selling papers), such as 20,000 deaths and however many was said would need critical care is pretty much meaningless.

Re the mild:critical cases - you left out probably the biggest cohort of cases in your numbers - moderate.

Seamai · 24-02-2020 12:29PM

I see the government here is advising against people travelling to those parts of Italy affected, short of cancelling flights I can't see too many people changing their plans. We'll have several thousand Italian over here the weekend after next for the 6 Nations match, most of them from Northern Italy where the game is more popular. Issuing travel advice is pointless unless it's heeded.

Mic 1972 · 24-02-2020 12:30PM

DrumSteve wrote: »

Some interesting stats here:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

this is an interesting point I'd hadn't seen before; I'd imagine smoking and the general low air quality in China might be having a larger impact than thought.

major flaw in that article

*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%).

Using that calculation all you really get is
3% probability of dying
31% probability of recovery
66% probability of sitting in a limbo until you either die or recover

totally useless!

24-02-2020 12:33PM

Seamai wrote: »

I see the government here is advising against people travelling to those parts of Italy affected, short of cancelling flights I can't see too many people changing their plans. We'll have several thousand Italian over here the weekend after next for the 6 Nations match, most of them from Northern Italy where the game is more popular. Issuing travel advice is pointless unless it's heeded.

Where did you see that?

Seamai · 24-02-2020 12:36PM

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

Where did you see that?

https://www.thejournal.ie/irish-citizens-advised-not-to-travel-to-italy-areas-with-coronavirus-5019341-Feb2020/

DrumSteve · 24-02-2020 12:37PM

Mic 1972 wrote: »

major flaw in that article

*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%).

Using that calculation all you really get is
3% probability of dying
31% probability of recovery
66% probability of sitting in a limbo until you either die or recover

totally useless!

I was referring more to the smoking aspect of it, we probably won't know for another week or so what the actual recovery rate is.

SARS eventually came in at around 91% recovery rate. If we get 9% mortality rate with COVID's incubation period, the **** will truly hit the fan.

pc7 · 24-02-2020 12:37PM

Titclamp wrote: »

They already had cancer.

I mean in general seems to be affecting older people (most tend to have underlying illnesses). Still it’s yuck!

DrumSteve · 24-02-2020 12:39PM

pc7 wrote: »

I mean in general seems to be affecting older people (most tend to have underlying illnesses). Still it’s yuck!

I suppose the one bright spot coming out of this (if you can call it that) is that it doesn't really seem to be affecting kids.

Mic 1972 · 24-02-2020 12:41PM

DrumSteve wrote: »

I suppose the one bright spot coming out of this (if you can call it that) is that it doesn't really seem to be affecting kids.

Natural selection at its best!

givyjoe · 24-02-2020 12:41PM

Candamir wrote: »

The point I’m making is that the numbers need to be taken with a very large heap of salt at this stage, and drawing conclusions from that data, by people without any epidemiological background (such as journalists who are selling papers), such as 20,000 deaths and however many was said would need critical care is pretty much meaningless.

Re the mild:critical cases - you left out probably the biggest cohort of cases in your numbers - moderate.

That was a medical professional, not a newspaper reporter, professor of Tropical Medicine at Beaumont.

I'd more inclined to take posters who are downplaying this with a pinch of salt. All I've seen so far is an alarming level of head in the sand thinking "be grand.. not that bad.. nothing to worry about.. etc." Its a very real problem regardless of exact numbers, medical supplies are limited and this virus has the potential to cause cases exceeding our supply of respiratory equipment. The health system is ALREADY creaking at the seams.

skimpydoo · 24-02-2020 12:43PM

Titclamp wrote: »

They already had cancer.

Cancer gives you a compromised immune system. I should know as I have cancer and I know that if I get Covid19 I could be screwed.

silverharp · 24-02-2020 12:43PM

How many Italian fans tend to travel? They should stop those flights coming over as far as I am concerned. I live 10min walk from the Stadium, cant say im thrilled at the idea of a concentration like that even if logically the sum total of other travel maybe a greater risk.

24-02-2020 12:43PM

Seamai wrote: »

https://www.thejournal.ie/irish-citizens-advised-not-to-travel-to-italy-areas-with-coronavirus-5019341-Feb2020/

Have to click through a few pages on the dfa website

https://www.dfa.ie/travel/travel-advice/a-z-list-of-countries/italy/

They haven’t listed the affected areas but say to consult your travel or accommodation provider to find out if it is an affected area. If you are in Italy, dial 1500 (is that like 999?)

Found it

1500: Call centre for health emergencies managed by the Department of Health which gives information to the population in case of health emergencies, notably information about SARS, flu syndromes, bioterrorist threat or information about the risk of excessively warm weather. The service is active only in some periods of the year.

24-02-2020 12:45PM

skimpydoo wrote: »

Cancer gives you a compromised immune system. I should know as I have cancer and I know that if I get Covid19 I could be screwed.

Try not to worry.

BanditLuke · 24-02-2020 12:46PM

Thought this was cool. Can't see this level of calmness when it reaches here unfortunately though sadly.

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-asia-51609712/coronavirus-drone-captures-massive-queue-for-masks-in-south-korea

BanditLuke · 24-02-2020 12:47PM

silverharp wrote: »

How many Italian fans tend to travel? They should stop those flights coming over as far as I am concerned. I live 10min walk from the Stadium, cant say im thrilled at the idea of a concentration like that even if logically the sum total of other travel maybe a greater risk.

Ridiculous if that goes ahead. We need to start getting real.

Mic 1972 · 24-02-2020 12:47PM

5th death in Italy, the list so far

60 yo man
88 yo man
68 yo woman
77 yo woman
78 yo man

Candamir · 24-02-2020 12:50PM

givyjoe wrote: »

That was a medical professional, not a newspaper reporter, professor of Tropical Medicine at Beaumont.

I'd more inclined to take posters who are downplaying this with a pinch of salt. All I've seen so far is an alarming level of head in the sand thinking "be grand.. not that bad.. nothing to worry about.. etc." Its a very real problem regardless of exact numbers, medical supplies are limited and this virus has the potential to cause cases exceeding our supply of respiratory equipment. The health system is ALREADY creaking at the seams.

1 million infected with 20% requiring critical care - that’s 200,000 needing icu level care. We have less than 300 ICU beds in this country. We really don’t need to go to exaggerated ‘worst case scenario’ levels to overwhelm our health services. If it ever got to anywhere near that level, we’re in a field hospital/triage scenario.

VinLieger · 24-02-2020 12:51PM

silverharp wrote: »

How many Italian fans tend to travel? They should stop those flights coming over as far as I am concerned. I live 10min walk from the Stadium, cant say im thrilled at the idea of a concentration like that even if logically the sum total of other travel maybe a greater risk.

Theres 2 weeks till the next matches, i dont think we will see them played and they will get postponed till later in the year, probably autumn similar to what happened the year of foot and mouth

imfml · 24-02-2020 12:51PM

Seamai wrote: »

I see the government here is advising against people travelling to those parts of Italy affected, short of cancelling flights I can't see too many people changing their plans. We'll have several thousand Italian over here the weekend after next for the 6 Nations match, most of them from Northern Italy where the game is more popular. Issuing travel advice is pointless unless it's heeded.

Great to see they're back in work today. This should have been the advice given late last Friday evening or early Saturday.

givyjoe · 24-02-2020 12:52PM

Candamir wrote: »

1 million infected with 20% requiring critical care - that’s 200,000 needing icu level care. We have less than 300 ICU beds in this country. We really don’t need to go to exaggerated ‘worst case scenario’ levels to overwhelm our health services. If it ever got to anywhere near that level, we’re in a field hospital/triage scenario.

So you agree with me then, good to know.

Candamir · 24-02-2020 12:54PM

givyjoe wrote: »

So you agree with me then, good to know.

I agree that it’s a serious disease. I think some of the conclusions being drawn from the very early and incomplete numbers are rubbish.

skimpydoo · 24-02-2020 12:57PM

Ulysses Gaze wrote: »

How many of us will still be here?

Kermit.de.frog · 24-02-2020 12:59PM

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1231907150508756995

givyjoe · 24-02-2020 01:00PM

Candamir wrote: »

I agree that it’s a serious disease. I think some of the conclusions being drawn from the very early and incomplete numbers are rubbish.

And how you come to this conclusion? Have you any stats to counter whatever it is you believe to be rubbish?

24-02-2020 01:06PM

Are Italy testing everyone in an area or just those with symptoms?

Candamir · 24-02-2020 01:07PM

givyjoe wrote: »

And how you come to this conclusion? Have you any stats to counter whatever it is you believe to be rubbish?

Ffs. Like any algorithm. Rubbish in, rubbish out.

Mic 1972 · 24-02-2020 01:13PM

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

Are Italy testing everyone in an area or just those with symptoms?

Testing people with symptoms and people who were exposed to potential spreaders

givyjoe · 24-02-2020 01:17PM

Candamir wrote: »

Ffs. Like any algorithm. Rubbish in, rubbish out.

If that's the quality of post you can come up with in response, take a break. In the last hour you've literally offered nothing constructive. You cant even bother to check basic facts, reporters making up figures to sell papers you said?

What exactly is rubbish about the actual live numbers of actual confirmed cases?! Bizarre ramblings. You were waffling on repeating my post referring to the 'worst case scenario' numbers being way off, only to acknowledge that it would only take a fraction of such numbers to overwhelm our ICU beds capacity.

Again, referring to the official numbers ~20% are critical. Again, referring to my earlier post, in February last year of 2083 cases of flu, only 5% were critical. I've no desire to get involved with stats back and forward, but if you're going to dismiss them, you're going to need to back it up with something other than "rubbish".

CinemaGuy45 · 24-02-2020 01:19PM

imfml wrote: »

Great to see they're back in work today. This should have been the advice given late last Friday evening or early Saturday.

Don’t be silly it was the weekend it not like we have a emerging pandemic or something.

Oh wait.

new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

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