GE Exit Poll 10 pm

KrustyUCC · 22-02-2020 12:33PM

Still think it will be a FF/FG/Greens government formed

charlie14 · 22-02-2020 01:33PM

McMurphy wrote: »

Soc Dems officially rule themselves out from any FFG coalition.

https://twitter.com/NextIrishGE/status/1231165426211659776?s=19

GE2020 .2 is essentially a cert at this stage.

Makes you wonder why the SD`s didn`t vote for Mary Lou as Taoiseach as she is the only other alternative.

Looking like Labour, the SD`s are sitting this one out.

is_that_so · 22-02-2020 01:37PM

charlie14 wrote: »

Makes you wonder why the SD`s didn`t vote for Mary Lou as Taoiseach as she is the only other alternative.

Looking like Labour, the SD`s are sitting this one out.

So the state of play is four political groupings parties still in opposition, three permanently. SF only have friends on the left, The Greens are open to making new friends and nobody else will talk to each other. Good hunting ground for a government!

Brendan Bendar · 22-02-2020 01:55PM

charlie14 wrote: »

Makes you wonder why the SD`s didn`t vote for Mary Lou as Taoiseach as she is the only other alternative.

Looking like Labour, the SD`s are sitting this one out.

Want to hang on to the wedge and sling the mud while pocketing the taxpayers dollauh

efanton · 22-02-2020 02:19PM

McMurphy wrote: »

Soc Dems officially rule themselves out from any FFG coalition.

https://twitter.com/NextIrishGE/status/1231165426211659776?s=19

GE2020 .2 is essentially a cert at this stage.

Well fair play to Catherine Murphy. Have always liked her, straight talking no nonsense sort of person that actually puts a lot of time and effort into her work.

Lets hope Eamonn Ryan has a bit of a backbone too.
Claims to be a republican and very much to the left of centre, will he turn the Greens into the new Labour. I hope not. I dont agree with all the Greens policies but it good that we have a party that keeps climate change issues and policies out front and in the open so that no government can conveniently forget about those issues.

So the worst possible outcome is the last resort.
FF/FG/and a whole load of independents.
In my opinion this is the worst possible combination. The independents have shown themselves to be mostly totally incompetent, FG will not want any massive spending on homes, and FF will go on a popularity spending splurge that will achieve very little in the long run as they have no real targets or goals.

Loafing Oaf · 22-02-2020 02:28PM

efanton wrote: »

So the worst possible outcome is the last resort.
FF/FG/and a whole load of independents.
In my opinion this is the worst possible combination. The independents have shown themselves to be mostly totally incompetent, FG will not want any massive spending on homes, and FF will go on a popularity spending splurge that will achieve very little in the long run as they have no real targets or goals.

quite possible if there was a deal with independents there wouldn't be any of them actually sitting in cabinet; they'd just be propping up the government in return for a few goodies for their constituencies.
I'm sure at the very least there will be serious efforts to woo the independents, so the Greens won't be thinking they have FF/FG over a barrel and all their demands will have to be met.

Brendan Bendar · 22-02-2020 02:29PM

efanton wrote: »

Well fair play to Catherine Murphy. Have always liked her, straight talking no nonsense sort of person that actually puts a lot of time and effort into her work.

Lets hope Eamonn Ryan has a bit of a backbone too.
Claims to be a republican and very much to the left of centre, will he turn the Greens into the new Labour. I hope not. I dont agree with all the Greens policies but it good that we have a party that keeps climate change issues and policies out front and in the open so that no government can conveniently forget about those issues.

So the worst possible outcome is the last resort.
FF/FG/and a whole load of independents.
In my opinion this is the worst possible combination. The independents have shown themselves to be mostly totally incompetent, FG will not want any massive spending on homes, and FF will go on a popularity spending splurge that will achieve very little in the long run as they have no real targets or goals.

Murphy knows very well how to sidestep the real issues.

Sit on the sidelines and toss out enough populist mantra to ensure the wedge keeps coming.

Just be careful not to make any unpopular decisions which are for the good of the state.

Past masters at that skill......;)

efanton · 22-02-2020 02:52PM

Brendan Bendar wrote: »

Murphy knows very well how to sidestep the real issues.

Sit on the sidelines and toss out enough populist mantra to ensure the wedge keeps coming.

Just be careful not to make any unpopular decisions which are for the good of the state.

Past masters at that skill......;)

It seems the only people that have any talent at all are not liked by FF and FG.

This nonsense about unpopular decision being good, is exactly why you are such a bad judge of character. An unpopular decision is almost invariable a bad decision.
Leo was tweeting every day of the week for the last 5 years trying to be popular, maybe that was a big mistake. A party leader having to wait for 5 counts to get elected must be embarrassing. I'm sure he will enjoy his Taoiseach's pension in the not too distant future

FrancieBrady · 22-02-2020 02:59PM

Brendan Bendar wrote: »

Murphy knows very well how to sidestep the real issues.

Sit on the sidelines and toss out enough populist mantra to ensure the wedge keeps coming.

Just be careful not to make any unpopular decisions which are for the good of the state.

Past masters at that skill......;)

The parties that have made a mockery of coalition are FF FG.

No surprise a small party does not want to be yet another mudguard as FG FF pretend to present a government of change.

Brendan Bendar · 22-02-2020 03:04PM

efanton wrote: »

It seems the only people that have any talent at all are not liked by FF and FG.

This nonsense about unpopular decision being good, is exactly why you are such a bad judge of character. An unpopular decision is almost invariable a bad decision.
Leo was tweeting every day of the week for the last 5 years trying to be popular, maybe that was a big mistake. A party leader having to wait for 5 counts to get elected must be embarrassing. I'm sure he will enjoy his Taoiseach's pension in the not too distant future

Talent... how do you evaluate that I’d be interested to know.

How do you evaluate your theory that “an unpopular decision is almost a
invariably a bad decision’

Sounds very strange to my way of thinking.

A party leader who has to wait for 5 counts must be embarrassing!!

My friend, if you judge a manager on popularity stakes , I have to laugh, you got a dude who is weak and populist.

Think the Bert.....:D...... Problem in Health Mr A.... Jaysus.. what do they want .... ehhh... give it to them

Ooooh roll on 2008........B ooooooo M

Get off the stage horse

Brendan Bendar · 22-02-2020 03:09PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The parties that have made a mockery of coalition are FF FG.

No surprise a small party does not want to be yet another mudguard as FG FF pretend to present a government of change.

Correct Francie, they know keeping a nice tight rein on things duddn’t butther any parsnips.

They just sit on the sidelines and collect the taxpayers wedge, roaring and shouting about ‘change’ but making sure not to annoy the electorate with anything that might advance the general good outlook of the state.

FrancieBrady · 22-02-2020 03:13PM

Brendan Bendar wrote: »

Correct Francie, they know keeping a nice tight rein on things duddn’t butther any parsnips.

They just sit on the sidelines and collect the taxpayers wedge, roaring and shouting about ‘change’ but making sure not to annoy the electorate with anything that might advance the general good outlook of the state.

or, that by not becoming the fall guy/gal, they might have extra seats the next time, to offer a coalition that does want to change things.

Brendan Bendar · 22-02-2020 03:21PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

or, that by not becoming the fall guy/gal, they might have extra seats the next time, to offer a coalition that does want to change things.

Possibly Francie, but they need to remember that one way or t’other to run things one always has to annoy some sectors of the electorate.

They will always need to hold the line at some stage, can’t always please everybody.

That’s what they seem to be afraid of.

Yurt2 · 22-02-2020 03:22PM

Hard to credit that FG and the clever boys and girls are still trotting out the hurlers on the ditch stuff when they are running away from any scintilla of responsibility and drawing red lines everywhere.

They must be tripping on a bad batch of mushrooms to come up with a communications strategy so bad. This will be a case study for PR and communications gurus for decades to come.

How to lose an election and destroy a political party in a few short sneers.

efanton · 22-02-2020 03:22PM

Brendan Bendar wrote: »

Talent... how do you evaluate that I’d be interested to know.

How do you evaluate your theory that “an unpopular decision is almost a
invariably a bad decision’

Sounds very strange to my way of thinking.

A party leader who has to wait for 5 counts must be embarrassing!!

My friend, if you judge a manager on popularity stakes , I have to laugh, you got a dude who is weak and populist.

Think the Bert.....:D...... Problem in Health Mr A.... Jaysus.. what do they want .... ehhh... give it to them

Ooooh roll on 2008........B ooooooo M

Get off the stage horse

Do you somehow think that I would ever be foolish enough to support FF?

FrancieBrady · 22-02-2020 03:25PM

Brendan Bendar wrote: »

Possibly Francie, but they need to remember that one way or t’other to run things one always has to annoy some sectors of the electorate.

They will always need to hold the line at some stage, can’t always please everybody.

That’s what they seem to be afraid of.

Well they certainly annoyed Cowen today. He was vitriolic in conversation with Roisin Shortall who simply give her reasons (not trusting of FF and FG) so much so that he had to clarify to the presenter that it wasn't personal abuse.

efanton · 22-02-2020 03:28PM

Yurt! wrote: »

Hard to credit that FG and the clever boys and girls are still trotting out the hurlers on the ditch stuff when they are running away from any scintilla of responsibility and drawing red lines everywhere.

They must be tripping on a bad batch of mushrooms to come up with a communications strategy so bad. This will be a case study for PR and communications gurus for decades to come.

How to lose an election and destroy a political party in a few short sneers.

Not their fault that someone took Leo's Strategic Communications Unit away from him. Now Leo has to think for himself, and to be fair that must be challenging for him. Ask him a question and you get a prerecorded message that probably has nothing to do with the question, I swear that lad has a tape machine stuck up his behind

Brendan Bendar · 22-02-2020 04:04PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Well they certainly annoyed Cowen today. He was vitriolic in conversation with Roisin Shortall who simply give her reasons (not trusting of FF and FG) so much so that he had to clarify to the presenter that it wasn't personal abuse.

Listening myself and while I wouldn’t have a great grá for Cowen, he was dead right in his assertion on Shorthall.

Stand up and be counted, these tools are scared shhidtless about what happened to Labour who took the hit from the entitlement brigade for putting the State first.

Brave decision but of course the entitlement brigade paid no heed to the big picture.

‘What’s in it for me’ was the main concern.

And the SDs are afraid to annoy anyone........

charlie14 · 22-02-2020 04:33PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Well they certainly annoyed Cowen today. He was vitriolic in conversation with Roisin Shortall who simply give her reasons (not trusting of FF and FG) so much so that he had to clarify to the presenter that it wasn't personal abuse.

If it is okay for the SD`s not to wish to form a coalition with FF or FG because they do not trust them, then is that not also a good reason for FG and FF not to enter coalition with SF ?

efanton · 22-02-2020 04:34PM

Brendan Bendar wrote: »

Listening myself and while I wouldn’t have a great grá for Cowen, he was dead right in his assertion on Shorthall.

Stand up and be counted, these tools are scared shhidtless about what happened to Labour who took the hit from the entitlement brigade for putting the State first.

Brave decision but of course the entitlement brigade paid no heed to the big picture.

‘What’s in it for me’ was the main concern.

And the SDs are afraid to annoy anyone........

Are you suggesting that if the tables were turned FF and FG wouldn't also be looking out for their own interests?

That's exactly what they are trying to do at the moment with this Drew Harris stunt and it looks like it going to spectacularly back fire on them.
Surely someone told them that trying to tar SF during the election was an own goal and they haemorrhaged votes because of it.

What ever chance they might have had of forming a FF/FG government is rapidly going up in smoke. probably the same smoke they use in their smoke and mirrors tricks. Very little substance or evidence of what they claim to be true when the smoke clears and a good objective look is taken.

Will the Greens be foolish enough to entertain them after this debacle? not likely in my opinion.

So time for Leo and Mehole to round up what independents they can buy off, but we know how unreliable and incompetent some of them can be.
How about Danny Healy-Rae as transport minister? They can replace the fool they currently have with yet another fool, but there will be CHANGE, he will want to issue permits to actually drink and drive.

Plumbthedepths · 22-02-2020 04:44PM

Catherine Murphy spent much of the 2011/2016 Dail holding the behaviour of FG up to the light , Siteserv anyone? Can't say I blame the Soc Dems for not trusting them . FF deserves no trust from anyone, history itself is enough.
GE 2.0 , the traditional big two will get no thanks from the electorate if it' becomes a reality.

Galwayguy35 · 22-02-2020 04:54PM

I wonder how many new SF voters even know what their policies are, I suspect most voted for them as a kind of protest vote and no other reason.

We only have to look to the other side of the border to see they are no great shapes in government at all.

limnam · 22-02-2020 04:57PM

Galwayguy35 wrote: »

I wonder how many new SF voters even know what their policies are, I suspect most voted for them as a kind of protest vote and no other reason.

I'd say desperation is closer to the truth.

Loafing Oaf · 22-02-2020 04:59PM

efanton wrote: »

So time for Leo and Mehole to round up what independents they can buy off, but we know how unreliable and incompetent some of them can be.
How about Danny Healy-Rae as transport minister? They can replace the fool they currently have with yet another fool, but there will be CHANGE, he will want to issue permits to actually drink and drive.

Doubt Healy-Raes, McGrath etc. would even want to be in cabinet. And I don't see why they would be particularly unreliable: Healy-Rae senior and Michael Lowry stuck by the 2007-11 coalition to the bitter end. As someone on the Irish Times comments said of the 'rural independents': They're honest men; when they're bought they stay bought...

Brendan Bendar · 22-02-2020 05:00PM

Galwayguy35 wrote: »

I wonder how many new SF voters even know what their policies are, I suspect most voted for them as a kind of protest vote and no other reason.

We only have to look to the other side of the border to see they are no great shapes in government at all.

That’s putting it mildly Gg.

I’m afraid our country is doomed if this can of stuff get in.

McMurphy · 22-02-2020 05:48PM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Catherine Murphy spent much of the 2011/2016 Dail holding the behaviour of FG up to the light , Siteserv anyone? Can't say I blame the Soc Dems for not trusting them . FF deserves no trust from anyone, history itself is enough.
GE 2.0 , the traditional big two will get no thanks from the electorate if it' becomes a reality.

Exactly why the likes of Brendan there wouldn't be a fan, him being a one time cheerleader of the laughing yoga brigade money collecting quango that Murphy helped throw a spanner in the works of.

Uncle Dinny no too happy with her I'd say.

efanton · 22-02-2020 06:46PM

Galwayguy35 wrote: »

I wonder how many new SF voters even know what their policies are, I suspect most voted for them as a kind of protest vote and no other reason.

We only have to look to the other side of the border to see they are no great shapes in government at all.

I have read this manefesto in full.
There lots of good measures in it. Have you?

What about the additional funding and resources for start up companies.

Equalising the tax allowances for the self employed.

Addition funding for the IDA and Enterprise Ireland.
Funding for the IDA to develop new sites to attract FDI to areas outside of the main cities. If workers are not forced to relocate to cities or commute long distance there will be less demand for housing in cities, less traffic congestion and more time at home for parents.

Banning below-cost selling of fresh food products by retailers.

additional legislation in the insurance industry to make cost of insurance premiums more transparent. Ban on the two price practice that insurance companies use where they charge a customer more for a renewal than they would if a customer contacts them by phone
Creation of a dedicated insurance fraud squad in the gardai

Providing additional funding to the Irish Competition and Consumer Protection Authority to establish a unit to investigate allegations of price fixing and other
cartel-like behaviour in the AGRI food sector

Provide a public child care service where childcare is significantly cheaper and all child care workers are properly qualified and garda vetted

Changes to public broadcasting funding so that €40 million is ring-fenced for independent productions commissioned by RTÉ. No longer would RTE have total control of revenue collected for programming, that €40 million would be ringfenced for productions created by private companies for transmission on state owned media. This can only be good news, less wastage by RTE and a more diverse selection of programming, as well as providing employment opportunities
for younger people leaving college with media qualifications.

Im sure there's lots more, that's all I can think of to be honest, but does any of the above sound like an anti business, far left agenda. I bet there a few in there that you would be happy with.

Galwayguy35 · 22-02-2020 10:06PM

efanton wrote: »

I have read this manefesto in full.
There lots of good measures in it. Have you?

What about the additional funding and resources for start up companies.

Equalising the tax allowances for the self employed.

Addition funding for the IDA and Enterprise Ireland.
Funding for the IDA to develop new sites to attract FDI to areas outside of the main cities. If workers are not forced to relocate to cities or commute long distance there will be less demand for housing in cities, less traffic congestion and more time at home for parents.

Banning below-cost selling of fresh food products by retailers.

additional legislation in the insurance industry to make cost of insurance premiums more transparent. Ban on the two price practice that insurance companies use where they charge a customer more for a renewal than they would if a customer contacts them by phone
Creation of a dedicated insurance fraud squad in the gardai

Providing additional funding to the Irish Competition and Consumer Protection Authority to establish a unit to investigate allegations of price fixing and other
cartel-like behaviour in the AGRI food sector

Provide a public child care service where childcare is significantly cheaper and all child care workers are properly qualified and garda vetted

Changes to public broadcasting funding so that €40 million is ring-fenced for independent productions commissioned by RTÉ. No longer would RTE have total control of revenue collected for programming, that €40 million would be ringfenced for productions created by private companies for transmission on state owned media. This can only be good news, less wastage by RTE and a more diverse selection of programming, as well as providing employment opportunities
for younger people leaving college with media qualifications.

Im sure there's lots more, that's all I can think of to be honest, but does any of the above sound like an anti business, far left agenda. I bet there a few in there that you would be happy with.

No I haven't because I'm not a SF voter but it's something I would have done if I was considering changing my vote to them.

Sure that all sounds great but I don't see anything about how it's all going to be paid for.

efanton · 23-02-2020 01:38AM

Galwayguy35 wrote: »

No I haven't because I'm not a SF voter but it's something I would have done if I was considering changing my vote to them.

Sure that all sounds great but I don't see anything about how it's all going to be paid for.

you are capable of reading that for yourself. I believe SF posted a full manefesto on their website.

I haven't re-read it myself for the detail of costing, lots of jobs around the house to get done at the weekend, but all above were costed.

Many of them are actually more or less self funding or only requiring legislation changes, and most are fairly modest investments, the only big ticket item there is the childcare system.

Foxtrol · 23-02-2020 02:37AM

efanton wrote: »

you are capable of reading that for yourself. I believe SF posted a full manefesto on their website.

I haven't re-read it myself for the detail of costing, lots of jobs around the house to get done at the weekend, but all above were costed.

Many of them are actually more or less self funding or only requiring legislation changes, and most are fairly modest investments, the only big ticket item there is the childcare system.

Despite how much members of SF lie about it, their manifesto wasn't properly costed for impact to the economy.

The type of costing they did was like a shop planning its budget, where they currently sell 100 chocolate bars for a euro each, making 100 euro. For next year they plan to raise the price of each bar to 5 euro and still expect to sell 100 chocolate bars, taking in a total of 500 euro.

I agree that some of the items you noted above are good and relatively cheap but the fundamentals of their manifesto is magic money tree nonsense.

GE Exit Poll 10 pm

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