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new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

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Comments

  • #7802
    Ficheall
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 9,067 ✭✭✭Ficheall


    BloodBath wrote: »
    Both methods are flawed which I've clearly pointed out.

    That's the nature of trying to guess these things in early stages. Incomplete data does not offer accurate results.
    Which method are you advocating?


  • #7803
    BloodBath
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,283 ✭✭✭✭BloodBath


    Ficheall wrote: »
    Which method are you advocating?

    Taking anything with a large grain of salt until we get more data and taking into account unconfirmed cases.

    At least considering it as an important factor with the numbers.

    The R0 and CFR are nowhere near accurate atm.

    It's most likely the R0 will go up and the CFR will go down.


  • #7804
    ardinn
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,249 ✭✭✭ardinn


    Mic 1972 wrote: »
    BloodBath wrote: »

    Can ye both not just agree to disagree?
    images.jpg
    http://slaneyfishing.com




  • #7805
    el Fenomeno
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,018 ✭✭✭el Fenomeno


    Half my company are gone home to Italy for mid term. Hope they don't bring back anything other than chocolates!


  • #7806
    Mic 1972
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,213 ✭✭✭Mic 1972


    BloodBath wrote: »
    Both methods are flawed which I've clearly pointed out.

    That's the nature of trying to guess these things in early stages. Incomplete data does not offer accurate results.


    That's how you work with stats, you take actual data and you develop Key Indicators, then you monitor the trend to formulate predictions
    If you disagree with the official methodology I can't help you with that. You will need to go back to the website owners

    The correct method is showing a death rate trending negatively, it was almost 20% when everybody was screaming at me, now it's 11% and most likely will decrease further as more people are recovering. It takes longer to recover than to die

    Mortality was never at 2%, that was a silly figure


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  • #7807
    Mic 1972
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,213 ✭✭✭Mic 1972


    el Fenomeno wrote: »
    Half my company are gone home to Italy for mid term. Hope they don't bring back anything other than chocolates!


    If they went to the north it is risky at the moment, more counties are being shut down as I'm reading this on the news


  • #7808
    MD1990
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,740 ✭✭✭✭MD1990


    quite sick of people saying as I said last week etc & acting like experts on this virus.

    Some people think & hope it wont get as bad as China some think differently.

    Some on here need to stop taking different views so personal. No one in here is an expert & even they dont know what will happen.


  • #7809
    tillyfilly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 567 ✭✭✭tillyfilly


    The thread name needs to be updated

    From:
    new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA

    To:

    new coronavirus global outbreak


  • #7810
    Mic 1972
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,213 ✭✭✭Mic 1972


    BloodBath wrote: »
    Taking anything with a large grain of salt until we get more data and taking into account unconfirmed cases.


    You can't take unconfirmed cases into account
    Pulling numbers out of your a** is not an options when you work with stats that are based on actual data.


  • #7811
    tuxy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 14,980 ✭✭✭✭tuxy


    Why not use SARS-CoV-2, it would be more accurate.


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  • #7812
    4068ac1elhodqr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,577 ✭✭✭4068ac1elhodqr


    The Ukrainans were not too pleased with a bus load of 'the infected' making their way through the country, towards a sanatarium.
    They only went and throw stones/bricks at the bus windows. Somehow I reckons that won't help reduce infection risks.

    Meanwhile, Russ must have got a loan of China's FRS Cameras, as they've facemapped their infected, if found on CCTV heading out for a beer, they'll be 'escorted' back home.


  • #7813
    Mic 1972
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,213 ✭✭✭Mic 1972


    MD1990 wrote: »
    quite sick of people saying as I said last week etc & acting like experts on this virus.

    Some people think & hope it wont get as bad as China some think differently.

    Some on here need to stop taking different views so personal. No one in here is an expert & even they dont know what will happen.


    If you referring to me, I'm not going to stop posting official useful data only because someone has an issue with the numbers


  • #7814
    tuxy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 14,980 ✭✭✭✭tuxy


    Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »
    The Ukrainans were not too pleased with a bus load of 'the infected' making their way through the country, towards a sanatarium.
    They only went and throw stones/bricks at the bus windows, somehow reckon that won't help reduce infections.

    One would wonder did these people what the infected randomly roaming the country?


  • #7815
    Mic 1972
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,213 ✭✭✭Mic 1972


    Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »
    The Ukrainans were not too pleased with a bus load of 'the infected' making their way through the country, towards a sanatarium.
    They only went and throw stones/bricks at the bus windows. Somehow I reckons that won't help reduce infection risks.

    Meanwhile, Russ must have got a loan of China's FRS Cameras, as they've facemapped their infected, if found on CCTV heading out for a beer, they'll be 'escorted' back home.


    only, they weren't infected


  • #7816
    silverharp
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,853 ✭✭✭✭silverharp


    the other thing about "2%" is , is that 2% when everyone has access to medical facilities , what does 2% become when you are given a pat on the head, 2 paracetamol and told to go home?

    A belief in gender identity involves a level of faith as there is nothing tangible to prove its existence which, as something divorced from the physical body, is similar to the idea of a soul. - Colette Colfer



  • #7817
    BanditLuke
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,600 ✭✭✭BanditLuke


    MD1990 wrote: »
    quite sick of people saying as I said last week etc & acting like experts on this virus.

    Some people think & hope it wont get as bad as China some think differently.

    Some on here need to stop taking different views so personal. No one in here is an expert & even they dont know what will happen.

    Nobody is claiming to be an expert. Its a discussion forum and people are discussing the situation.


  • #7818
    tuxy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 14,980 ✭✭✭✭tuxy


    silverharp wrote: »
    the other thing about "2%" is , is that 2% when everyone has access to medical facilities , what does 2% become when you are given a pat on the head, 2 paracetamol and told to go home?

    Are they recommending paracetamol and other medicines to reduce fever?
    Is a high fever not beneficial in helping to combat the virus?


  • #7819
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,099 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    16 cases recorded in one day in Italy, bit of a cluster.


  • #7820
    Mic 1972
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,213 ✭✭✭Mic 1972


    silverharp wrote: »
    the other thing about "2%" is , is that 2% when everyone has access to medical facilities , what does 2% become when you are given a pat on the head, 2 paracetamol and told to go home?


    2% is not indicative of anything, the figure goes up and down depending on how many new cases are added to the total regardless of the outcome.
    Currently it's at 3% because China went from adding 3K cases per day to 500 cases per day. That figure is not to be used


  • #7821
    creditcarder
    Closed Accounts Posts: 494 ✭✭creditcarder


    How many cases are in Thailand tbh? Hnmmmm, I'd be nervous if I was a thai guy. They have a strange society and I'd be curious what would happen if the monarchy/military crashes.


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  • #7822
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,099 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    January 23rd

    2020.02.21before.PNG?itok=hFv0ost4

    February 13th

    2020.02.21after.PNG?itok=ZPMIFjC3

    2020.02.21graph.PNG?itok=yo3YltPl


  • #7823
    Mic 1972
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,213 ✭✭✭Mic 1972


    creditcarder wrote: »
    How many cases are in Thailand tbh? Hnmmmm, I'd be nervous if I was a thai guy. They have a strange society and I'd be curious what would happen if the monarchy/military crashes.


    35 official cases.
    Worryingly they haven't recorded anymore new cases which is probably because they are not testing anybody at the moment, like Italy until yesterday


  • #7824
    bodhrandude
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,193 ✭✭✭✭bodhrandude


    creditcarder wrote: »
    How many cases are in Thailand tbh? Hnmmmm, I'd be nervous if I was a thai guy. They have a strange society and I'd be curious what would happen if the monarchy/military crashes.

    35 cases now for the last week, wouldn't be surprised if there's a few asymptomatic folk wandering about unobserved.

    If you want to get into it, you got to get out of it. (Hawkwind 1982)



  • #7825
    givyjoe
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,286 ✭✭✭givyjoe


    tuxy wrote: »
    Are they recommending paracetamol and other medicines to reduce fever?
    Is a high fever not beneficial in helping to combat the virus?

    It was tongue in cheek obviously. Point still stands that the rate will increase when Oxygen etc is needed and not available.


  • #7826
    Mic 1972
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,213 ✭✭✭Mic 1972


    givyjoe wrote: »
    It was tongue in cheek obviously. Point still stands that the rate will increase when Oxygen etc is needed and not available.


    Correct
    at the moment there are 22% of patients worldwide in critical conditions, basically in hospital


  • #7827
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,099 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    https://twitter.com/jenniferatntd/status/1230873333002129408


  • #7828
    tuxy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 14,980 ✭✭✭✭tuxy


    Many of the producers of medial supplies in China are now reopened.
    There was a real risk that this would have cost many lives worldwide if these companies had not gone back to work.


  • #7829
    silverharp
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,853 ✭✭✭✭silverharp


    Mic 1972 wrote: »
    2% is not indicative of anything, the figure goes up and down depending on how many new cases are added to the total regardless of the outcome.
    Currently it's at 3% because China went from adding 3K cases per day to 500 cases per day. That figure is not to be used

    to put it differently, if 1 in 5 get a severe dose, what happens if treated with standard care v no oxygen , medical supervision worth speaking of?

    A belief in gender identity involves a level of faith as there is nothing tangible to prove its existence which, as something divorced from the physical body, is similar to the idea of a soul. - Colette Colfer



  • #7830
    ardinn
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,249 ✭✭✭ardinn


    tuxy wrote: »
    Many of the producers of medial supplies in China are now reopened.
    There was a real risk that this would have cost many lives worldwide if these companies had not gone back to work.

    There is also a risk they could contaminate the very goods they are sending to healthcare workers around the world also!
    images.jpg
    http://slaneyfishing.com




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  • #7831
    PrairieDawn
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 95 ✭✭PrairieDawn


    Have been following this here and on R:// for the last few weeks.

    I find it most unusual that the media doesnt seem to report whats happening at the same rate things appear to be happening. But I also found this very interesting post on redit which is quite possibly fake news but also made me want to share it here.

    https://www.reddit.com/r/COVID__19/comments/f2jwew/if_you_were_ever_banned_or_had_a_post_removed/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf

    r/COVID__19
    u/jackthoma59d
    2
    If you were ever banned or had a post removed from r/Coronavirus or r/China_Flu or have noticed the censorship then please read this...
    Conspiracy
    I found something interesting on u/CLO_Junkie the guy who created all the main coronavirus communities and is the main moderator.

    So if you go to his post history and look at when his account was created it was November 7th, right around the time China probably knew they ****ed up about the virus and mainstream news about it was imminent. His profile suggests he deals with money so of course his first post on November 7th is in r/wallstreetbets. But after that zero posts and comments for months. Sounds like a typical cover to disguise who he really is. I mean not even one post or comment after that? Come on.

    Then once official news broke of the virus on January 20th he rushed and immediately created multiple communities such as r/China_Flu and r/coronavirus as if he already had this all planned. As people joined and posted he suppressed information heavily as you can tell because all of his comments are telling people why a post is being removed. Pretty much anything showing negative things about China is removed.

    My guess is that he is working for the CCP, probably works for them full time and they had this plan all along. His goal was to come into reddit disguised as a normal user and then to create communities that everyone would join that the CCP could control. He must not have a day job because he moderates 24/7.

    If they control those communities, then they control the information that most of the reddit users talking about the virus have.

    When I posted in r/coronavirus complaining about the heavy censorship on the thread and asking others to join my community the post was removed and I was permanently banned without reason.

    He also immediately rushed and made r/COVID19 today almost instantly once the WHO released the name.

    What do you think?

    UPDATE: This may be worse than I thought. His account was created ONE DAY after Event 201

    UPDATE 2: After searching r/wuhan_flu for “clo” I came across this thread It’s worse than I thought. It may be a group of globalists who decided to play event 201 in real life, the account was created one day after event 201 took place. Could this group be comprised of rich people with an agenda? Could they have leaked the virus from the Wuhan Level 4 bio lab by knowing someone inside who is part of their agenda? This is ****ing crazy.

    UPDATE 3: One of the mods who is heavy on censorship (likely from China/CCP) is a virologist. Maybe he worked in the Wuhan Level 4 Bio Lab...see this

    UPDATE 4: Another thread about CLO_Junkie and his friends trying to nuke a discord putting out negative info on China that they couldn’t control!

    UPDATE 5: Today February 12th, CLO_Junkie had an AMA on his subreddit and everyone was pressuring him with questions that I brought about in my post here. Spread the truth!

    Also, r/Wuhan_Flu is a now quarantined subreddit. It was the only popular subreddit about the virus that CLO and his peers could not control. They had that subreddit quarantined because they could not control it. If the link in UPDATE 2 for the thread is not working please search for r/Wuhan_Flu and join it, then try the link in UPDATE 2 and it should work.


This discussion has been closed.
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