new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

21-02-2020 07:56PM

Minime2.5 wrote: »

How bad is it in Thailand , its very warm there all year round

Oh yeah, and Singapore. Nevermind.

Mic 1972 · 21-02-2020 08:00PM

BloodBath wrote: »

Apologies to others for this post but it has to be done.

Ok you're gonna make me do this again. I've done it several times already and you just ignored it. Maybe you want to try and offer a rebuttal this time.

You say this isn't misrepresenting stats?

I'll stick this here too as it's important. It relates to the h1n1 but also applies to covid.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mortality_from_H5N1

I've been saying this all along.

Failure of logic here. For the 2% to become lower the recoveries from currently infected would have to simply outnumber the deaths by a higher factor than they have been currently. Not simply none dying from the remaining cases.

Reading the same material for calculations as you, from the WHO, you have to understand the limitations with those calculations for an an ongoing potential pandemic which are seriously flawed. But they are the only ones they can make with the currently limited information.

It' not an exact science so representing them as factual is disingenuous.

Those figures have trended downwards but still don't take into account unconfirmed cases which at this moment in time are hard/impossible to estimate.

You never mentioned any of the caveats I've made above. To the uninformed your 19% number is simply scaremongering.

Still trying to imply that the death rate is far higher than 2.1%

Again misrepresenting the numbers which are extremely flawed. Taking the 1 caveat into account from above, there are others, the number could only be lower. Not higher.

I could link more but I think I've made my point.

You are wasting a lot of your time here and no, you are not proving anything

The stats are out on a daily basis, you can do the math yourself
As of today we have 11% death rate on closed cases and 22% in critical condition on open cases.
We also have 3% on deaths / total cases which is basically an update to the 2% from weeks ago

Link below, you just need to hover over it with your mouse, then click, wait for the page to load and read. It's all in there

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

...oh, I almost forgot, there is also a link on How to calculate the Mortality Rate during an outbreak, you will love this one ;-)

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#correct

Once an epidemic has ended, it is calculated with the formula: deaths / cases.
But while an epidemic is still ongoing, as it is the case with the current novel coronavirus outbreak, this formula is, at the very least, "naïve" and can be "misleading if, at the time of analysis, the outcome is unknown for a non negligible proportion of patients
An alternative method, which has the advantage of not having to estimate a variable, and that is mentioned in the American Journal of Epidemiology study cited previously as a simple method that nevertheless could work reasonably well if the hazards of death and recovery at any time t measured from admission to the hospital, conditional on an event occurring at time t, are proportional, would be to use the formula:
CFR = deaths / (deaths + recovered)

BloodBath · 21-02-2020 08:12PM

Mic 1972 wrote: »

You are wasting a lot of your time here and no, you are not proving anything

The stats are out on a daily basis, you can do the math yourself
As of today we have 11% death rate on closed cases and 22% in critical condition on open cases.
We also have 3% on deaths / total cases which is basically an update to the 2% from weeks ago

Link below, you just need to hover over it with your mouse, then click, wait for the page to load and read. It's all in there

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

...oh, I almost forgot, there is also a link on How to calculate the Mortality Rate during an outbreak, you will love this one ;-)

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#correct

Once an epidemic has ended, it is calculated with the formula: deaths / cases.
But while an epidemic is still ongoing, as it is the case with the current novel coronavirus outbreak, this formula is, at the very least, "naïve" and can be "misleading if, at the time of analysis, the outcome is unknown for a non negligible proportion of patients
An alternative method, which has the advantage of not having to estimate a variable, and that is mentioned in the American Journal of Epidemiology study cited previously as a simple method that nevertheless could work reasonably well if the hazards of death and recovery at any time t measured from admission to the hospital, conditional on an event occurring at time t, are proportional, would be to use the formula:
CFR = deaths / (deaths + recovered)

If that is your reply then yes I am wasting my time.

I already told you I've read that and pointed out the flaws in it.

You didn't answer any of my points.

Mic 1972 · 21-02-2020 08:17PM

Both methods are explained very clearly at the above links, if you have an issue with that you need to go back to website owners

Flawed/naive method
deaths / cases = 3%

Better method
deaths / (deaths + recovered) = 11%

BloodBath · 21-02-2020 08:19PM

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Both methods are explained very clearly at the above links, if you have an issue with that you need to go back to website owners

Flawed/naive method
deaths / cases = 3%

Better method
deaths / (deaths + recovered) = 11%

Both methods are flawed which I've clearly pointed out.

That's the nature of trying to guess these things in early stages. Incomplete data does not offer accurate results.

drunkmonkey · 21-02-2020 08:23PM

16 new cases in Italy, http://www.ansa.it/english/newswire/english_service/2020/02/21/coronavirus-16-new-cases-in-italy-4_fdfd4f36-855e-40f0-993d-48fa8a8a80f4.html

Won't be long before supermacs is the only safe place in town.

Ficheall · 21-02-2020 08:24PM

BloodBath wrote: »

Both methods are flawed which I've clearly pointed out.

That's the nature of trying to guess these things in early stages. Incomplete data does not offer accurate results.

Which method are you advocating?

BloodBath · 21-02-2020 08:26PM

Ficheall wrote: »

Which method are you advocating?

Taking anything with a large grain of salt until we get more data and taking into account unconfirmed cases.

At least considering it as an important factor with the numbers.

The R0 and CFR are nowhere near accurate atm.

It's most likely the R0 will go up and the CFR will go down.

ardinn · 21-02-2020 08:26PM

Mic 1972 wrote: »

BloodBath wrote: »

Can ye both not just agree to disagree?

el Fenomeno · 21-02-2020 08:28PM

Half my company are gone home to Italy for mid term. Hope they don't bring back anything other than chocolates!

Mic 1972 · 21-02-2020 08:28PM

BloodBath wrote: »

Both methods are flawed which I've clearly pointed out.

That's the nature of trying to guess these things in early stages. Incomplete data does not offer accurate results.

That's how you work with stats, you take actual data and you develop Key Indicators, then you monitor the trend to formulate predictions
If you disagree with the official methodology I can't help you with that. You will need to go back to the website owners

The correct method is showing a death rate trending negatively, it was almost 20% when everybody was screaming at me, now it's 11% and most likely will decrease further as more people are recovering. It takes longer to recover than to die

Mortality was never at 2%, that was a silly figure

Mic 1972 · 21-02-2020 08:31PM

el Fenomeno wrote: »

Half my company are gone home to Italy for mid term. Hope they don't bring back anything other than chocolates!

If they went to the north it is risky at the moment, more counties are being shut down as I'm reading this on the news

MD1990 · 21-02-2020 08:34PM

quite sick of people saying as I said last week etc & acting like experts on this virus.

Some people think & hope it wont get as bad as China some think differently.

Some on here need to stop taking different views so personal. No one in here is an expert & even they dont know what will happen.

tillyfilly · 21-02-2020 08:35PM

The thread name needs to be updated

From:
new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA

To:

new coronavirus global outbreak

Mic 1972 · 21-02-2020 08:37PM

BloodBath wrote: »

Taking anything with a large grain of salt until we get more data and taking into account unconfirmed cases.

You can't take unconfirmed cases into account
Pulling numbers out of your a** is not an options when you work with stats that are based on actual data.

tuxy · 21-02-2020 08:37PM

Why not use SARS-CoV-2, it would be more accurate.

4068ac1elhodqr · 21-02-2020 08:38PM

The Ukrainans were not too pleased with a bus load of 'the infected' making their way through the country, towards a sanatarium.
They only went and throw stones/bricks at the bus windows. Somehow I reckons that won't help reduce infection risks.

Meanwhile, Russ must have got a loan of China's FRS Cameras, as they've facemapped their infected, if found on CCTV heading out for a beer, they'll be 'escorted' back home.

Mic 1972 · 21-02-2020 08:39PM

MD1990 wrote: »

quite sick of people saying as I said last week etc & acting like experts on this virus.

Some people think & hope it wont get as bad as China some think differently.

Some on here need to stop taking different views so personal. No one in here is an expert & even they dont know what will happen.

If you referring to me, I'm not going to stop posting official useful data only because someone has an issue with the numbers

tuxy · 21-02-2020 08:39PM

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

The Ukrainans were not too pleased with a bus load of 'the infected' making their way through the country, towards a sanatarium.
They only went and throw stones/bricks at the bus windows, somehow reckon that won't help reduce infections.

One would wonder did these people what the infected randomly roaming the country?

Mic 1972 · 21-02-2020 08:40PM

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

The Ukrainans were not too pleased with a bus load of 'the infected' making their way through the country, towards a sanatarium.
They only went and throw stones/bricks at the bus windows. Somehow I reckons that won't help reduce infection risks.

Meanwhile, Russ must have got a loan of China's FRS Cameras, as they've facemapped their infected, if found on CCTV heading out for a beer, they'll be 'escorted' back home.

only, they weren't infected

silverharp · 21-02-2020 08:41PM

the other thing about "2%" is , is that 2% when everyone has access to medical facilities , what does 2% become when you are given a pat on the head, 2 paracetamol and told to go home?

BanditLuke · 21-02-2020 08:42PM

MD1990 wrote: »

quite sick of people saying as I said last week etc & acting like experts on this virus.

Some people think & hope it wont get as bad as China some think differently.

Some on here need to stop taking different views so personal. No one in here is an expert & even they dont know what will happen.

Nobody is claiming to be an expert. Its a discussion forum and people are discussing the situation.

tuxy · 21-02-2020 08:44PM

silverharp wrote: »

the other thing about "2%" is , is that 2% when everyone has access to medical facilities , what does 2% become when you are given a pat on the head, 2 paracetamol and told to go home?

Are they recommending paracetamol and other medicines to reduce fever?
Is a high fever not beneficial in helping to combat the virus?

Kermit.de.frog · 21-02-2020 08:45PM

16 cases recorded in one day in Italy, bit of a cluster.

Mic 1972 · 21-02-2020 08:47PM

silverharp wrote: »

the other thing about "2%" is , is that 2% when everyone has access to medical facilities , what does 2% become when you are given a pat on the head, 2 paracetamol and told to go home?

2% is not indicative of anything, the figure goes up and down depending on how many new cases are added to the total regardless of the outcome.
Currently it's at 3% because China went from adding 3K cases per day to 500 cases per day. That figure is not to be used

creditcarder · 21-02-2020 08:49PM

How many cases are in Thailand tbh? Hnmmmm, I'd be nervous if I was a thai guy. They have a strange society and I'd be curious what would happen if the monarchy/military crashes.

Kermit.de.frog · 21-02-2020 08:50PM

January 23rd

2020.02.21before.PNG?itok=hFv0ost4

February 13th

2020.02.21after.PNG?itok=ZPMIFjC3

Mic 1972 · 21-02-2020 08:51PM

creditcarder wrote: »

How many cases are in Thailand tbh? Hnmmmm, I'd be nervous if I was a thai guy. They have a strange society and I'd be curious what would happen if the monarchy/military crashes.

35 official cases.
Worryingly they haven't recorded anymore new cases which is probably because they are not testing anybody at the moment, like Italy until yesterday

bodhrandude · 21-02-2020 08:51PM

creditcarder wrote: »

How many cases are in Thailand tbh? Hnmmmm, I'd be nervous if I was a thai guy. They have a strange society and I'd be curious what would happen if the monarchy/military crashes.

35 cases now for the last week, wouldn't be surprised if there's a few asymptomatic folk wandering about unobserved.

givyjoe · 21-02-2020 08:52PM

tuxy wrote: »

Are they recommending paracetamol and other medicines to reduce fever?
Is a high fever not beneficial in helping to combat the virus?

It was tongue in cheek obviously. Point still stands that the rate will increase when Oxygen etc is needed and not available.

new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

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