new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

BanditLuke · 20-02-2020 01:39AM

wakka12 wrote: »

No new cases in Shanghai for second day in a row

Incredible really.

Kermit.de.frog · 20-02-2020 01:39AM

fritzelly wrote: »

They attack bacteria but this is a thread about a virus???

It is a virus, I don't know if it can be applied to this though because I don't know enough about it.

fritzelly · 20-02-2020 01:43AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

It is a virus, I don't know if it can be applied to this though because I don't know enough about it.

Why spout nonsense when you don't even know how they work
Move over to the conspiracy forum - never thought you were this type Kermit

BloodBath · 20-02-2020 01:45AM

cnocbui wrote: »

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3876197

This virus just doesn't do good news.

Not when you use unreliable news sources who still have links to debunked conspiracy theories like the cremation gases on their main page.

SeaBreezes wrote: »

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200219-sitrep-30-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=6e50645_2

WHO Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) Situation Report – 29 Feb 19..
WHO is working with an international network of statisticians and mathematical modelers to estimate key epidemiologic parameters of COVID19, such as the incubation period (the time between infection and symptom onset), case fatality ratio (CFR, the proportion of cases that die), and the serial interval (the time between symptom onset of a primary and secondary case). Reports of current analyses that have estimated these parameters are provided in this Situation Report as a summary of currently available evidence. These values should be considered preliminary and parameters will likely be updated as more information becomes available.

Preliminary estimates of median incubation period are 5-6 days (ranging from 0-14 days) and estimates for the serial interval range from 4.4 to 7.5 days

The confirmed case fatality ratio, or CFR, is the total number of deaths divided by the total number of confirmed cases at one point in time. Within China, the confirmed CFR, as reported by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, is 2.3%. This is based on 1023 deaths amongst 44 415 laboratory-confirmed cases as of 11 February.
This CFR does not include the number of more mild infections that may be missed from current surveillance, which has largely focused on patients with pneumonia requiring hospitalization; nor does it account for the fact that recently confirmed cases may yet develop severe disease, and some may die. As the outbreak continues, the confirmed CFR may change.

(They skip past the fact all they have to do, to get a better idea, is factor in the time lag to closed cases, and estimate the number of cases 3 weeks(ish) before, but everyone seems to be fudging that issue, so it must be a scary number, otherwise it would be all over every release.(IMO))

Anyway, here is it, the latest and greatest from WHO..

Edit: Comments in Twitter make me laugh/cry:

- When do we expect the findings from the team
- Apparently after half the world's population has it.

Bolded the point I've made several times. These WHO stats don't take into account undiagnosed cases which with most infections like these far exceed confirmed ones. Chinas draconic measures probably rounded up many who were recorvering at home but I'm sure they missed a lot too.

fritzelly · 20-02-2020 01:50AM

Looks like S Korea numbers are about to do a massive jump in new cases

BanditLuke · 20-02-2020 01:53AM

fritzelly wrote: »

Looks like S Korea numbers are about to do a massive jump in new cases

Yeah South Korea and Japan are the ones to watch.

Kermit.de.frog · 20-02-2020 01:54AM

fritzelly wrote: »

Why spout nonsense when you don't even know how they work
Move over to the conspiracy forum - never thought you were this type Kermit

I'll stay right here, thank you very much.

wakka12 · 20-02-2020 01:55AM

15 new cases in S Korea
More than twenty yesterday
Almost double the number of cases in the country in 48 hours

fritzelly · 20-02-2020 01:56AM

wakka12 wrote: »

15 new cases in S Korea
More than twenty yesterday
Almost double the number of cases in the country in 48 hours

More to come

CinemaGuy45 · 20-02-2020 01:58AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I'll stay right here, thank you very much.

Just be careful there are rumours this thing can spread thought wifi the 2.4GH band I think you should be safe using 5GH if you set a strong password.;)

Kermit.de.frog · 20-02-2020 02:04AM

CinemaGuy45 wrote: »

Just be careful there are rumours this thing can spread thought wifi the 2.4GH band I think you should be safe using 5GH if you set a strong password.;)

That's more plausible than the 'stats' overseen by the politburo

gozunda · 20-02-2020 02:06AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

It is a virus, I don't know if it can be applied to this though because I don't know enough about it.

You may be interested in this piece of research

The old adage of feed a cold and starve a fever.
now is feed a virus, starve a bacterium?

https://directorsblog.nih.gov/2016/09/13/feed-a-virus-starve-a-bacterium/

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2016/09/glucose-inflammation/498965/

wakka12 · 20-02-2020 02:07AM

fritzelly wrote: »

More to come

Yep 16 more added just now, a total of 31 added in the last hour and 51 over the last 24 hours. It is the most daily increases ever reported outside China. Country total 82 now, just behind Japan and Singapore with 84 each

CinemaGuy45 · 20-02-2020 02:09AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

That's more plausible than the 'stats' overseen by the politbureau

I am not into the conspiracy theories much myself either but one thing you said was we can not trust anything the Chinese government says.

You can not trust anything any Government says if would be a wacky conspiracy to believe there is any honest Government out there.:D

fritzelly · 20-02-2020 02:09AM

wakka12 wrote: »

Yep 16 more added just now. Country total 82 now, just behind Japan and Singapore with 84 each

Over 50% increase in one day is not good news

BanditLuke · 20-02-2020 02:15AM

fritzelly wrote: »

Over 50% increase in one day is not good news

I wonder if they are now at the stage Wuhan was at 6 weeks ago?

Huge increase either way.

fritzelly · 20-02-2020 02:18AM

BanditLuke wrote: »

I wonder if they are now at the stage Wuhan was at 6 weeks ago?

Huge increase either way.

Who knows what Wuhan was like 6 weeks ago - they don't know

fritzelly · 20-02-2020 03:27AM

China's got this under control - all hail Xi

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1230311827889967105

bodhrandude · 20-02-2020 03:36AM

Coronavirus 'spike' protein just mapped, leading way to vaccine (livescience.com).

fritzelly · 20-02-2020 04:03AM

Sad news - Japanese couple in their 80's. Japan and WHO have a lot to answer for

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1230320994298073088

tuxy · 20-02-2020 04:36AM

fritzelly wrote: »

Sad news - Japanese couple in their 80's. Japan and WHO have a lot to answer for

I'm out of the loop on this one. What exactly did the WHO do that caused Japan to leave these people on the ship?

fritzelly · 20-02-2020 04:38AM

tuxy wrote: »

I'm out of the loop on this one. What exactly did the WHO do that caused Japan to leave these people on the ship?

To paraphrase they said it was best for them to stay on the ship - will try to find the video of the Irish doctor saying it

fritzelly · 20-02-2020 04:44AM

Here

tuxy · 20-02-2020 04:45AM

fritzelly wrote: »

To paraphrase they said it was best for them to stay on the ship - will try to find the video of the Irish doctor saying it

I see, well lets wait and see if these two were some of the infected that were taken off the ship early and taken to hospital. Or maybe they were possibly uninfected and only contracted the virus as a result of being left on the ship.

It really does look like most of the spread happened while docked after the first discovery of an infected person on board.

fritzelly · 20-02-2020 04:51AM

Important to study this event to see what issues led to the spreading sic
I mean seriously

ardinn · 20-02-2020 04:52AM

So I posted a video yesterday of bodies lining the streets.

Im wondering now, how many people die each day naturally.

Worldwide, 150k people die every day

7b people - 150k dead - so, china (1/7th of world population) = about 22k dead per day.

so 22k per billion people.

500m - 11k

50m - 1.1k

10m - Wuhan size - 220 people die every day.

So - since Jan 25th - 5940 people on average would have died in wuhan anyway.

It would explain a lot including why so many people are lining the streets dead. In some morbid fashion its actually making me feel better. with the lack of any real medical help for all other illnesses this figure would naturally increase also.

I suppose I didnt think that the day to day deaths etc, in a place in nearly full lockdown, would eventually have a severe backlog of bodies piling up which makes it very hard to judge what your seeing regards dead coming out of wuhan.

tuxy · 20-02-2020 04:54AM

fritzelly wrote: »

Important to study this event to see what issues led to the spreading sic
I mean seriously

I think it may be possible that there is an incredibly long incubation period and it did not spread much after quarantine started on the ship. But it is looking less likely everyday.

bodhrandude · 20-02-2020 04:55AM

The Guardian report on the Japanese deaths..

tuxy · 20-02-2020 04:58AM

bodhrandude wrote: »

The Guardian report on the Japanese deaths..

This is the video referenced in that article.

fritzelly · 20-02-2020 05:01AM

bodhrandude wrote: »

The Guardian report on the Japanese deaths..

The infected guy was on the ship from the 20/01 to 25/01
The ship docked on the 4/02 in Japan
They were hospitalised about a week later - so nearly 3 weeks after this guy left the ship
A week later they are dead.

Average incubation being 5/6 days it would look like they got infected while docked and quarantined