new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

whiskeyman · 19-02-2020 10:19PM

RebelButtMunch wrote: »

Seems ok to me. What do you think they should do?

Call a local GP or medical center / local HSE clinic etc...

Calling 999 for flu symptoms seems rather excessive, no?
So much for easing sense of panic.

4068ac1elhodqr · 19-02-2020 10:19PM

Anyway see the African locust plage is spreading, even reaching Pakistan and closing on China (aka 'Sin' in the old bible books).
The 'occult' Moon (whereby it eclipses Mars) has also just occurred today Feb 19th.

And with that, chin up, and (cough cough) good (*cough*) luck, ,folks.

fritzelly · 19-02-2020 10:22PM

SeaBreezes wrote: »

The confirmed case fatality ratio, or CFR, is the total number of deaths divided by the total number of confirmed cases at one point in time. Within China, the confirmed CFR, as reported by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, is 2.3%. This is based on 1023 deaths amongst 44 415 laboratory-confirmed cases as of 11 February.

The bolded part is important - that high CFR only exists within China

Call Me Jimmy · 19-02-2020 10:23PM

SeaBreezes wrote: »

(They skip past the fact all they have to do, to get a better idea, is factor in the time lag to closed cases, and estimate the number of cases 3 weeks(ish) before, but everyone seems to be fudging that issue, so it must be a scary number, otherwise it would be all over every release.(IMO))

Anyway, here is it, the latest and greatest from WHO..

That has confused me no end, why no time lag for death (or any reasonable lag) is used. If you add all the new confirmed cases on a specific day, the deaths are still only reflective of the confirmed cases x days ago because doing it against today's deaths implies people could die instantaneously? I must be misunderstanding.

fritzelly · 19-02-2020 10:24PM

Duke of Url wrote: »

The death rate is only based on confirmed cases of people who tested positive by medical staff.

Analysis suggests that the confirmed cases only represent around 5 - 10% of the real number of people who have contracted COVID19 but have not been tested.

This would drop the actual death rate to 0.3% or lower

You could say there are deaths happening that are not recorded as covid related as well (they are not going to waste resources on it) - so swings and roundabouts. I'm sure the real CFR outside Hubei will continue to drop

branie2 · 19-02-2020 10:24PM

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

Anyway see the African locust plage is spreading, even reaching Pakistan and closing on China (aka 'Sin' in the old bible books).
The 'occult' Moon (whereby it eclipses Mars) has also just occurred today Feb 19th.

And with that, chin up, and (cough cough) good (*cough*) luck, ,folks.

I hope we don't get that either!

fritzelly · 19-02-2020 10:26PM

whiskeyman wrote: »

I just saw a clip of him on the RTE 9 news.
He said if you have symptoms, to call 999 or your GP!!!

WTF??

So everyone with a cough or a sniffle calls the emergency line, jaysus
Should only be calling if you are dying

Duke of Url · 19-02-2020 10:27PM

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

No data is definate, or will ever be final, for this dynamic event.
However the best available large set of data shows for Hubei (largest region with longest duration)
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

62k currently confirmed, with most in an unknown state
I..e 'status:pending' (each case may take weeks or perhaps months before final status can be assigned)

15k recovered and 2k dead
So of the 'final status' we know of, 13.333% didn't ever recover.

Eh what?

wakka12 · 19-02-2020 10:31PM

Eight more people on Diamon Princess become serious condition, total 28

wakka12 · 19-02-2020 10:34PM

It is unlikely the number of cases in Hubei is hugely overestimated as some suggest. Government are sweeping the province for undetected coronavirus cases by tracking and investigating purchases of fever and cough medicine currently

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-hubei-searches-cases-through-medicine-purchases-report-2020-2?utm_source=reddit.com&r=US&IR=T

fritzelly · 19-02-2020 10:36PM

108 new deaths

Total confirmed cases 62,013

Suspected - no change with new cases vs released

SeaBreezes · 19-02-2020 10:37PM

wakka12 wrote: »

Eight more people on Diamon Princess become serious condition, total 28

21% infection rate with another 79 confirmed cases.
With tests of accuracy of 30-50% ... many of them will walk who already have it.

ceadaoin. · 19-02-2020 10:38PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

You just complained about a headline saying killer virus, is it not a killer virus? At least the daily mail offers a different view on the issue

I didnt complain about it. I was pointing out that its complete bull**** that the virus isnt being reported on or is being downplayed by msm (as being claimed by some posters), and using the daily mail as an example.

MD1990 · 19-02-2020 10:41PM

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1230260100822175745

great decline in new cases

wakka12 · 19-02-2020 10:43PM

https://twitter.com/hectorology/status/1230247971540783114?s=21

Call Me Jimmy · 19-02-2020 10:44PM

fritzelly wrote: »

108 new deaths

Total confirmed cases 62,013

Suspected - no change with new cases vs released

Seems like they're getting a handle on things in Hubei and Wuhan.

Yesterday in Wuhan 1,600 new cases, today 615.

And today in Hubei outside Wuhan, 13.

igCorcaigh · 19-02-2020 10:45PM

Thankfully all the seeds seem to be contained across the wider globe.

Asian countries will bring new cases, as to be expected.

This will go everywhere, but the more we can slow it down the better.

wakka12 · 19-02-2020 10:46PM

Not to sound too cynical but it actually seems impossible to believe that neighbouring countries of China today counted far more new cases than all of China outside Wuhan

laurah591 · 19-02-2020 10:47PM

fritzelly wrote: »

108 new deaths

Total confirmed cases 62,013

Suspected - no change with new cases vs released

349 new cases.... big drop off in new cases reported today. Edit so I see China have changed reporting format again and have reverted to test diagnosis again and netted off some cases ..... another monkey covers eye moment

Meanwhile outside of the ship and China; the rest of world reported 39 new cases and 3 deaths (albeit all 3 were elderly with pre existing). Regular cases cropping up in Japan and Singapore might be raising flags - looks like both countries will hit 100 cases in the next few days

Meanwhile Iran is going into major containment phase with all schools and universities closed tomorrow followed today's developments.

fritzelly · 19-02-2020 10:47PM

wakka12 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/hectorology/status/1230247971540783114?s=21

What isn't Iran telling us? They currently have a 100% death rate!

Fr_Dougal · 19-02-2020 10:48PM

It would be helpful if they released the daily numbers of tests carried out.

Beasty · 19-02-2020 10:49PM

OK, time to step in with some mod instructions:

1. Please interact in a civil manner
2. Do not tell others what to do, or what to post
3. If you have a problem with a post report it and leave the modding to the mods

In terms of thread content:

4. Treat everything you read here with caution. Anything posted is from an anonymous internet poster. You cannot assume anyone has any "specialist" knowledge whatever they claim
5. Statistics are important to some (and I personally pay a lot of attention to them), but they are of very little use to anyone who is already caught up in this, or indeed knows of people who are caught up
6. Terms such as "sinus", "airborne", "aerosol" have little relevance at this time in this jurisdiction. Ultimately though if cases are discovered in Ireland please pay attention to the relevant authorities and what they advise/recommend, and not some randomer(s) on the internet

All the above is me talking as a complete layman on the subject. Like everything in this thread do not treat it as chapter and verse, beyond paying attention to items 1-3 above

Any questions please PM me - do not try and dissect this post in-thread

laurah591 · 19-02-2020 10:50PM

wakka12 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/hectorology/status/1230247971540783114?s=21

lol I didn't want to post that link for fear of being accused of spreading fake news ... monkey covers eyes

wakka12 · 19-02-2020 11:02PM

laurah591 wrote: »

lol I didn't want to post that link for fear of being accused of spreading fake news ... monkey covers eyes

Haha! Yeh..the signpost auto detected to Persian and there is clearly a very large military presence so it could be real, and with two deaths it would not be surprising a government implemented these measures considering how other countries have reacted, but yeh still big grain of salt for this one

fritzelly · 19-02-2020 11:26PM

OK who farted?

cnocbui · 19-02-2020 11:26PM

Exclusive: Chinese doctors say Wuhan coronavirus reinfection even deadlier
Instead of creating immunity the virus can reportedly reinfect an individual and hasten fatal heart attack

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3876197

This virus just doesn't do good news.

wakka12 · 19-02-2020 11:28PM

Apparently Taiwanese news is notoriously unreliable, that seems like big news, but I havnt heard anything about that before.

fritzelly · 19-02-2020 11:30PM

wakka12 wrote: »

Apparently Taiwanese news is notoriously unreliable, that seems like big news, but I havnt heard anything about that before.

Not so much unreliable but their ahem history leads to certain rhetoric

creditcarder · 19-02-2020 11:32PM

wakka12 wrote: »

Apparently Taiwanese news is notoriously unreliable, that seems like big news, but I havnt heard anything about that before.

Curious how Taiwan culture differs from the country China's culture? Is it more democratic or more authoritarian?

Christ, that news could be scary, but I am taking everything with a grain of salt.

cloudatlas · 19-02-2020 11:34PM

Watching a live stream there, the commentators saying the hospitals that were thrown up in a few days were a p.r exercise primarily, bad design, infrastructure problems, people in large rooms together cross infecting.

new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

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