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new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

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Comments

  • #7082
    dominatinMC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,130 ✭✭✭dominatinMC


    wakka12 wrote: »
    4 new cases Japan, 3 Singapore, 1 in HK
    Provided the data is accurate, these are really small numbers in the grand scheme of things. I would consider them to be a promising sign that this can hopefully be contained


  • #7083
    odyssey06
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,385 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    show me the money.1 wrote: »
    Can they be forced to be put in quarantine in Ireland?
    Who says who should and shouldn't be?

    There's a separate thread about legal basis for forced quarantine in Ireland:
    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058053864

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • #7084
    BanditLuke
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,600 ✭✭✭BanditLuke


    I'm getting a real sense of the truth being hidden from the general population about this whole thing. It's really bizarre the supposed lack of cases outside Wuhan given how interconnected the whole planet is.


  • #7085
    wadacrack
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,172 ✭✭✭wadacrack


    dominatinMC wrote: »
    Provided the data is accurate, these are really small numbers in the grand scheme of things. I would consider them to be a promising sign that this can hopefully be contained

    Both countries are testing all flu like symptoms The data in these countries over the next few wees will help give us a better understanding of what we are dealing with


  • #7086
    Drumpot
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,306 ✭✭✭✭Drumpot


    dominatinMC wrote: »
    Provided the data is accurate, these are really small numbers in the grand scheme of things. I would consider them to be a promising sign that this can hopefully be contained

    Do you believe the Chinese figures on any level? I mean , they aren’t letting WHO into the region the outbreak started, why do you think that is?

    Do you think they are more concerned with stopping the spread or protecting the mother land from an economic and nationality/pride perspective?

    They punished people for the first few weeks for discussing the virus. Do you think it’s scaremongering to ask these questions? I feel like the whole world is being nice to China in the hope that they will eventually open up and be honest about what’s going on. In the absence of knowing for sure it’s all here say but I’m just curious if people who are optimistic about the spread of this virus presume China is now being upfront in a manner that Can be trusted.


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  • #7087
    Mic 1972
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,213 ✭✭✭Mic 1972


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Mic 1972, do your figures account for the various rates of deaths in different age groups? Or are you counting everyone unresolved to have the same rate of death regardless of age?

    Show us your full calculations.


    I'm using data from worldometers

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    Total Cases: 75,227
    Open Cases: 58,291 (77% of total cases)

    Closed cases: 16,936 (23% of total cases)
    Recovered / Discharged: 14,924 (88%)
    Deaths: 2,012 (12%)

    The Death rate calculated ONLY on the closed cases is 12%, however this rate is decreasing as the number of closed cases increases, this is because it takes longer to recover than to die


    The Death rate officially being communicated (2.6%) is calculated as
    Deaths / Total Cases = 2,012/75,227 = 2.6%
    This formula is flawed as there are 77% of total cases still without an outcome


  • #7088
    dominatinMC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,130 ✭✭✭dominatinMC


    Drumpot wrote: »
    Do you believe the Chinese figures on any level? I mean , they aren’t letting WHO into the region the outbreak started, why do you think that is?

    Do you think they are more concerned with stopping the spread or protecting the mother land from an economic and nationality/pride perspective?

    They punished people for the first few weeks for discussing the virus. Do you think it’s scaremongering to ask these questions? I feel like the whole world is being nice to China in the hope that they will eventually open up and be honest about what’s going on. In the absence of knowing for sure it’s all here say but I’m just curious if people who are optimistic about the spread of this virus presume China is now being upfront in a manner that Can be trusted.
    The stats I referred to pertain to Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong. I never mentioned anything about China...


  • #7089
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    dominatinMC wrote: »
    Provided the data is accurate, these are really small numbers in the grand scheme of things. I would consider them to be a promising sign that this can hopefully be contained

    Maybe, maybe not. One woman in South Korea yesterday infected 14 people, that are known of.3 of the cases this morning were in Tokyo, theres been a good lot of new cases there in the last few days, its insanely high population density and several of the cases have no known links to existing infected. It doesnt take much of a spark to start a fire in this instance


  • #7090
    Drumpot
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,306 ✭✭✭✭Drumpot


    dominatinMC wrote: »
    The stats I referred to pertain to Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong. I never mentioned anything about China...

    I was just curious on your thoughts about china.


  • #7091
    creditcarder
    Closed Accounts Posts: 494 ✭✭creditcarder


    New ADVChina video. I am happy they stopped talking about Corona tbh.






    Excellent video imo. Maybe the most interesting I have seen in a long, long time, but there are two points to note.



    1) Lads, the sky is just cloudy :P It's just the region in north vietnam and even saigon is pretty cloudy vs other parts.



    2) I wonder if they voiced this video over later? It's oddly relevant to the current times.



    Very very good video imo.


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  • #7092
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 17,378 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Mic 1972 wrote: »
    I'm using data from worldometers

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    Total Cases: 75,227
    Open Cases: 58,291 (77% of total cases)

    Closed cases: 16,936 (23% of total cases)
    Recovered / Discharged: 14,924 (88%)
    Deaths: 2,012 (12%)

    The Death rate calculated ONLY on the closed cases is 12%, however this rate is decreasing as the number of closed cases increases, this is because it takes longer to recover than to die


    The Death rate officially being communicated (2.6%) is calculated as
    Deaths / Total Cases = 2,012/75,227 = 2.6%
    This formula is flawed as there are 77% of total cases still without an outcome





    Your analysis of the data is reading a few figures of a non-official website. Why are you not taking the remaining cases and then taking their age groups and associated death rate statistics we have so far, and then adding the percentage of cases which are never reported, to come to your figure?

    Do you believe you have a more accurate figure than professional organisations, based on the data you are using and your methods?


  • #7093
    BloodBath
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,299 ✭✭✭✭BloodBath


    Mic 1972 wrote: »
    I'm using data from worldometers

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

    Total Cases: 75,227
    Open Cases: 58,291 (77% of total cases)

    Closed cases: 16,936 (23% of total cases)
    Recovered / Discharged: 14,924 (88%)
    Deaths: 2,012 (12%)

    The Death rate calculated ONLY on the closed cases is 12%, however this rate is decreasing as the number of closed cases increases, this is because it takes longer to recover than to die


    The Death rate officially being communicated (2.6%) is calculated as
    Deaths / Total Cases = 2,012/75,227 = 2.6%
    This formula is flawed as there are 77% of total cases still without an outcome





    Your whole logic and calculations are flawed and you claim to understand data for your job. They are not even roughly estimating unconfirmed cases in these figures which would drive all those death rate figures down by at least 50-75%.

    The final death rate will be far below 2% but you insist on claiming it's far higher without any logic or facts to back to that up. I would say 0.5% tops.


  • #7094
    Snow Garden
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,126 ✭✭✭Snow Garden


    Doctor Jimbob wrote: »
    People are determined to make this seem as scary as possible, for whatever reason.

    The fear virus spreads very easily in the modern world.


  • #7095
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 17,378 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    If you want to offer your opinion, I've started a feedback thread regarding the fake stuff and manipulation of stats.

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058055420


  • #7096
    HeidiHeidi
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,319 ✭✭✭✭HeidiHeidi


    I heard on the 1o'c news headlines something along the lines of the ship in Japan being disembarked after a 14 day quarantine period.


    But there are still hundreds of cases of the virus on board, as far as I know.


    Should the quarantine period not start only after the cases have been cleared/taken off/recovered? Or am I missing something?


    What's the point of a quarantine if cases are still spreading?


  • #7097
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    HeidiHeidi wrote: »
    I heard on the 1o'c news headlines something along the lines of the ship in Japan being disembarked after a 14 day quarantine period.


    But there are still hundreds of cases of the virus on board, as far as I know.


    Should the quarantine period not start only after the cases have been cleared/taken off/recovered? Or am I missing something?


    What's the point of a quarantine if cases are still spreading?

    Yeh was thinking that too. Could be a good long cruise holiday for some


  • #7098
    laurah591
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 326 ✭✭laurah591


    HeidiHeidi wrote: »
    I heard on the 1o'c news headlines something along the lines of the ship in Japan being disembarked after a 14 day quarantine period.


    But there are still hundreds of cases of the virus on board, as far as I know.


    Should the quarantine period not start only after the cases have been cleared/taken off/recovered? Or am I missing something?


    What's the point of a quarantine if cases are still spreading?

    https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0219/1116200-coronavirus-diamond-princess/

    From reading the above - they are disembarking some and then restarting quarantine for 2 more weeks. Hope they disinfect that ship


  • #7099
    HeidiHeidi
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,319 ✭✭✭✭HeidiHeidi


    laurah591 wrote: »
    https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0219/1116200-coronavirus-diamond-princess/

    From reading the above - they are disembarking some and then restarting quarantine for 2 more weeks. Hope they disinfect that ship
    But surely disembarking some when the virus is still active and spreading within the ship is madness?



    Like I say, maybe I'm missing something obvious, but this just seems nuts.


    Like, the Irish pair who were flown home, they're in self-imposed isolaton - fair enough. But how did they get home? That wasn't in isolation, I'm assuming..... so what about all the people they came in contact with en route?

    This isn't meant as scaremongering, btw! I'm just trying to get my head around the logic (or not) of it.


  • #7100
    BloodBath
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,299 ✭✭✭✭BloodBath


    It's massively over estimated how easily this virus spreads as well. It doesn't affect the sinus which is the main way the flu spreads.

    No runny nose, no sneezing. Coughing comes later though sure.


  • #7101
    givyjoe
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,287 ✭✭✭givyjoe


    BloodBath wrote: »
    It's massively over estimated how easily this virus spreads as well. It doesn't affect the sinus which is the main way the flu spreads.

    No runny nose, no sneezing. Coughing comes later though sure.

    Are you kidding? Have you missed the news stories on the cruise ship? It's been previously confirmed to be airborne, something which flu is not. Seriously leap you are making there which doesn't even remotely match with the reality on the ground in China.


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  • #7102
    PhantomHat
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 151 ✭✭PhantomHat


    This thread is just going through periods of blind optimism and then it switches to waves of overreacting despair and then back again.


  • #7103
    tuxy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 14,983 ✭✭✭✭tuxy


    givyjoe wrote: »
    It's been previously confirmed to be airborne, something which flu is not.

    The WHO have not confirmed it. How was it confirmed?
    By some of the posters on this thread perhaps?


  • #7104
    sweetie
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,797 ✭✭✭sweetie


    wakka12 wrote: »
    Yeh was thinking that too. Could be a good long cruise holiday imprisonment for some

    fixed that for ya


  • #7105
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    PhantomHat wrote: »
    This thread is just going through periods of blind optimism and then it switches to waves of overreacting despair and then back again.

    All in the space of about half a day as well. I like coming on here to see whether its been all overblown and a big fuss made out of nothing or the apocalypse will happen tomorrow


  • #7106
    bodhrandude
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,850 ✭✭✭✭bodhrandude


    Japan critical of the disembarkation of passengers from the Diamond Princess. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51555420

    If you want to get into it, you got to get out of it. (Hawkwind 1982)



  • #7107
    Somedaythefire
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 758 ✭✭✭Somedaythefire


    givyjoe wrote: »
    Are you kidding? Have you missed the news stories on the cruise ship? It's been previously confirmed to be airborne, something which flu is not. Seriously leap you are making there which doesn't even remotely match with the reality on the ground in China.
    It has absolutely not been confirmed that it's airborne. It is said to spread through respiratory droplets.


  • #7108
    BloodBath
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,299 ✭✭✭✭BloodBath


    givyjoe wrote: »
    Are you kidding? Have you missed the news stories on the cruise ship? It's been previously confirmed to be airborne, something which flu is not. Seriously leap you are making there which doesn't even remotely match with the reality on the ground in China.

    It get's airborne through spreading bodily fluids through contact or coughing and sneezing. Since it doesn't affect the sinus this seriously reduces how bad the situation could have been if it did. The only way it get's airborne is through coughing/sneezing.

    The reality on the ground is a city with 11 million people have had near 75k infections, a 0.68 infection rate in several months. Yes they have taken major measures to counter it which has helped massively I'm sure but the fact that it doesn't affect the sinus is a huge help in reducing how easily it spreads. Explosive sneezing and spreading fluids from runny noses is the main way the flu spreads.


  • #7109
    tuxy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 14,983 ✭✭✭✭tuxy


    BloodBath wrote: »
    It get's airborne through spreading bodily fluids through contact or coughing and sneezing. Since it doesn't affect the sinus this seriously reduces how bad the situation could have been if it did. The only way it get's airborne is through coughing/sneezing.

    If it's contained in droplets from coughing and sneezing it is not considered airborne. These droplets only go short distances before coming to rest on a surface.
    Airborne would be it spreading from people breathing.


  • #7110
    BloodBath
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,299 ✭✭✭✭BloodBath


    tuxy wrote: »
    If it's contained in droplets from coughing and sneezing it is not considered airborne. These droplets only go short distances before coming to rest on a surface.
    Airborne would be it spreading from people breathing.

    Well in that case then it is not airborne at all. I was going to say that initially but I wasn't sure.


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  • #7111
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Drumpot wrote: »
    There seems to be a strategy of prioritizing not spreading panic and prejudice of people infected at play. But like I said, the way they are not communicating anything has left a vacuum that will be filled , so they are leaving others to fill in the gaps. You can’t just whine about an information gap that you know scaremongers and fake news will fill, certainly in an age when it’s never been easier to dupe populations and we all know it.

    Most people it appears are happy to remain ignorant on the subject in a “until it gets worse I will not worry” POV, therefore it seems the authority’s feel this suits them as they don’t want to make anymore of this then they have to. Again, this is a mistake bacause they are just letting others communicate their uninformed opinions that can become “fact” to some.

    I'm sure governments would rather have a small subset of extremely interested people over reacting than the potential for panic among general population


This discussion has been closed.
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