GE Exit Poll 10 pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

When was she grilled about the Brexit process though? Very good at delivering the message from party HQ's, no doubt about it. But an original thinker or a force in getting or delivering something?...as yet totally unproven tbh.

Saturday's radio appearance was a test of that. Surely she should have been able to see that the notion of SF forming a left-wing government is dead in the water at this stage and some sort of new holding position was required. Although if this from Leo is the new party line on government formation, maybe she took one look at it and decided it was even more pathetic than the previous one:

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/fine-gael-faces-internal-resistance-to-a-grand-coalition-with-ff-and-greens-1.4175724
“Sinn Féin should try to put together a government of the left with Independents. It’s difficult and would take time, but the votes are there.

“If that doesn’t work Fianna Fáil should try to form a government with the Greens, Labour and Social Democrat parties and Independents – the numbers are there.:rolleyes:

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/forget-a-grand-coalition-here-is-what-the-next-government-will-most-likely-look-like-1.4175672

I think Michael O Regan has a good call for what might happen when the posturing stops. FFG to try make it look more rainbowy by adding an extra surplus coalition partner and slap the label change on to try make it look less like a stitch up. Will likely get heavily hard balled by the 2 junior partners who want to avoid being mudguards but will deem it worth it to keep SF at bay and also avoid another election. Imagine they would also try to funnel maximal resources in to housing and health in any govt programme to take some of the future oxygen away from SF.

Personally as someone with no party allegiance I think this could be the best outcome out of a poor selection of options. It would avoid a shock to the system that would have too many unknowns and instability. The change that is undoubtedly happening would come dropping a little more slowly, ie over the course of a couple of elections (I suspect SF would secretly prefer this too). Also, in a broader way could be positive. In PR systems coalitions and consensus building are the norms and it usually breaks in to left/right alignments. Now that civil war politics is breaking down political spectrum looks to be resetting so this might hopefully force the left to realise that if they want to get near power they will have to start finding ways of working together, being a bit more realistic and becoming attractive as a real alternative, not just a protest vote

Bertie Ahern signposted such a Govn't openly yesterday. FF + FG but also with Greens and SD to reflect and introduce the change the electorate looked for.
I think the positioning now is as much about the Greens and SD making the choice. Is their preference to be part of a SF type minority Govn't or a more centreist majority Govn't?

Well it looks like FG have slammed the door in FF's face
https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/fine-gael-we-are-preparing-to-go-into-opposition-982339.html

Despite calls from senior ministers including Tánaiste Simon Coveney and Justice Minister Charlie Flanagan to not shut the door to a deal in the “national interest,” the strong mood from those assembled was it would be better to go into opposition.

Elected party members, including seven new TDs, met for six hours in Leinster House and everyone present had an opportunity to give their view.

“An Taoiseach and Fine Gael President, Leo Varadkar, told the Parliamentary Party that he relishes the challenge to lead a strong and effective Opposition for the benefit of the country,” the statement said.

Speaking to reporters after the meeting, Mr Varadkar said the Parliamentary Party agreed that the onus is on Sinn Féin to form a Government of the left with the support of independents. “Sinn Féin has an obligation to the people who voted for it to show whether or not it can honour the extraordinary promises they made,” he said.

“If Sinn Féin fails in that challenge then the onus passes to Fianna Fáil to form a government with them, and or with the Greens, Labour and Social Democrat parties and independents,” he added.

Is is this a gambit by FG to force more concessions to them in a coalition, or is it that FG really do mean what they say.

Hard to see how they could think that a SF government was still on the cards unless they were prepared to offer a deal in order for a minority government to be formed.

There are only two alternatives left and that is FG are trying to force a SF/FF coalition or that they want FF to go solo.
I cant see FF being any more successful at forming a government than SF was without at least one of the 3 leading parties joining them or offering a C&S agreement.

So is FG playing dirty, and trying to force FF to accept SF/FF coalition?

Thoughts anyone?

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Looks like...This clause “There will be no negotiations on a Programme for Government without a further mandate from the Parliamentary Party." negates everything else in the article.
Leo knows the only options at this stage are a FF/FG (+ whoever) deal and a general election, and he has no intention of triggering the latter by slamming the door on FF. The question is are there enough people in his party who would genuinely prefer another election to block the deal.

That's exactly what I would have thought.

So why play the hard ball? Is it they are already in negotiation and FG want to make it clear FF need to be a bit more negotiation friendly.
They could have kept their mouths shut and simply say they are waiting for a mandate for negotiation by party members

I can see how FG would be perfectly happy to sit back on the opposition benches waiting for a government to collapse and then come back with the 'we weren't as bad as you thought line' but if FF go nuclear and force another general election surely this little play could back fire massively on FG.

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Mary Lou said today she is trying to form a government with the left.

Are you saying she is lying?

All are agreed she won't have the figures for govt.

efanton wrote: »

That's exactly what I would have thought.

So why play the hard ball? Is it they are already in negotiation and FG want to make it clear FF need to be a bit more negotiation friendly.
They could have kept their mouths shut and simply say they are waiting for a mandate for negotiation by party members

I can see how FG would be perfectly happy to sit back on the opposition benches waiting for a government to collapse and then come back with the 'we weren't as bad as you thought line' but if FF go nuclear and force another general election surely this little play could back fire massively on FG.

Remember, neither of them have been in this particular pickle before. The possibility of them adopting a strategy that backfires is definitely on the table. They didn't exactly adopt strategies that worked in the lead in to the election either.

Fann Linn wrote: »

As O Broin said the other day either FG or FF will be required.

My money is on FF.

She didn't say that today.

She said she is still trying to form a government with the left.

She's lying but she knows the some not very clued in supporters will believe her and blame everyone else.

She's lying simple.

Fann Linn wrote: »

All are agreed she won't have the figures for govt.

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Except herself.

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

She didn't say that today.

She said she is still trying to form a government with the left.

She's lying but she knows the some not very clued in supporters will believe her and blame everyone else.

She's lying simple.

https://twitter.com/irishexaminer/status/1229503915865104385

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Mary Lou said today she is trying to form a government with the left.

Can't see why she has reopened this question. Just playing into the hands of FF and FG...

It feels like MLM is in a Trump situation, didn't expect the numbers they got, but burned too many bridges with other parties to do anything with it.

I mean, spending the election painting FF/FG as the devil incarnate, then blaming them for not wanting to deal with you, in other news, water wet.

astrofool wrote: »

It feels like MLM is in a Trump situation, didn't expect the numbers they got, but burned too many bridges with other parties to do anything with it.

I mean, spending the election painting FF/FG as the devil incarnate, then blaming them for not wanting to deal with you, in other news, water wet.

When was that election?

You must have been out of the country the last couple of weeks when both FF/FG focused their entire campaign against Sinn Fein (with the help of the usual friendly media).

Obviously their internal polling forecast what was coming.

If you going to try a history rewrite, give it more than a fortnight FFS.

Boggles wrote: »

When was that election?

You must have been out of the country the last couple of weeks when both FF/FG focused their entire campaign against Sinn Fein (with the help of the usual friendly media)

Couldn't both be true (about what the campaigns were focused on I mean)?

It's amazing how parties, who have preached for many years that funds aren't available for certain projects, but in changed circumstances, it can suddenly be found. The UK Tory party is a good example.
FG walked through the whole of the last Govn't without one idea. The Inds in the Govn't didn't do any thing either.

Water John wrote: »

It's amazing how parties, who have preached for many years that funds aren't available for certain projects, but in changed circumstances, it can suddenly be found. The UK Tory party is a good example.
FG walked through the whole of the last Govn't without one idea. The Inds in the Govn't didn't do any thing either.

I agree.
This argument there is no money for something important is pure nonsense.

If your boiler of some other high cost appliance decides to give up the ghost in your own home you do not say, we cant afford a new one we will do without.
You will trim your budget or housekeeping in other areas so that it can be replaced. You might make sacrifices in other areas for a short period, but you will without doubt find that money for things that are essential.

Last year the Government gave €16.8 million to the greyhound industry.
No doubt it gave similar amounts to large numbers of other organisation that were not essential to the country. Cut those budgets in half and suddenly you are looking at close to €100 million, maybe more, without even adjusting taxes or budget for essential services.

The government had €80 billion to spend last year. Admittedly a large chunk of that disappeared almost immediately to service the country's debt, but I think any government would find it hard to explain how it could not find 5 or 6 billion for something that was essential. Adjustments would have to be made but what is more important the country as a whole or the local parish pump?