new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

Gynoid · 16-02-2020 01:55PM

tromtipp wrote: »

ok, fair enough re: the family ages, I got it wrong.

On the Internet you get 3 goes at being wrong about anything, on the 4th time you get instantly vaporised by a laser from a drone that is programmed to seek out your IP address. Best of luck.

tillyfilly · 16-02-2020 01:58PM

Once this virus takes a hold in India or Africa, it will be around for a decade

volchitsa · 16-02-2020 02:01PM

Gynoid wrote: »

On the Internet you get 3 goes at being wrong about anything, on the 4th time you get instantly vaporised by a laser from a drone that is programmed to seek out your IP address. Best of luck.

That explains why some people are unable to ever admist to having got something wrong then. Some will brazen it out, while others disappear off and come back with a new username. Now I know why.

(Seriously though, fair play to Tromtipp for saying so.)

ldy4mxonucwsq6 · 16-02-2020 02:05PM

tara73 wrote: »

I think this is a very important question and I wonder why it's not available/done by China/WHO.
And before the racist/pc brigade shows up again, it's NOT to discriminate elderly people, it's to get the facts right who is mostly affected by the virus to get a better perception of the overall situation and get it under control the best we can (silly to even explain/justify this..:rolleyes:)

From what I have read its having the greatest critical effect on people aged 55 or over, more men than women and seems to have little effect on those under 15.

From the death stats available so far it does seem to be killing older people and those with underlying conditions (similar to flu) although there have been some that don't fit that category who have died as well.

SeaBreezes · 16-02-2020 02:07PM

silverharp wrote: »

oddly heard this mentioned as a factoid this morning

First reported case in States, hard to see how it could have originated in another country and only first be reported in the States

where the first known case was reported at a military base in Kansas on March 11, 1918.

On 4 March 1918, company cook Albert Gitchell reported sick at Fort Riley, an American military facility that at the time was training American troops during World War I, making him the first recorded victim of the flu. Within days, 522 men at the camp had reported sick

MadYaker · 16-02-2020 02:08PM

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Chang Kai, born in 1964, worked at #Hubei Film Studio, died of #COVID19 in the morning on the #valentinsday . His sister died in the same afternoon. His father died on Jan 28. His mother died on Jan 31. Within 17 days, four members died. His wife was infected too

https://twitter.com/jenniferatntd/status/1228799606588420097

In the tweet comments: If the mortality rate of the virus was really 2.5% as China is telling the world, the probability of a family of four being killed by the virus is one in 2.5 million. If the mortality was 10% it is one in 10,000. I suspect the real rate is north of 10%

The example of one family is a statistical outlier. It's anecdotal and shouldn't be used an example of anything other than bad luck for that poor family. Based on the cases we've seen so far mortality rate seems to be somewhere between 2% to 3%. It's worth noting that China has been reporting a drop in the number of new cases for the last 3 days in a row now so it would seem at the moment that the spread of this virus is starting to slow after it's peak in the last 2 weeks or so. So it's unlikely the mortality will rise much now, as the spread of the virus slows down the number of people infected will drop and this virus will have run it's course in 4 to 6 weeks or so. It'll likely continue to be an issue in Hubei for another year or more though.

laurah591 · 16-02-2020 02:18PM

https://mobile.twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1228998880244781058

1st from Taiwan to die, 60's with underlying medical issues (diabetes and Hep B.)
Was he recorded as serious/critical before death?

Drumpot · 16-02-2020 02:19PM

Lyanna Salty Toadstool wrote: »

I just think it's a little too perfect of a virus to be natural.

It's ability to transmit, reinfect and kill is phenomenal.

Rumours of it being capable of living on surfaces for lengthy periods and capable of being transmitted by food or goods.

It's apparent non effect on those under 15 years old. It's seeming lethality specifically on Asian people due to the receptors and the way the lungs react.

The timing too, a time of huge gathering and travelling for Chinese New year.

I don't know, I suppose good news is China reporting drops in cases (if figures are legit) also the Christmas Island evacuees all seem to be clear after quarantine.

I feel like I could be in tin foil hat territory but I would not be surprised to learn if it was man made or a purposeful release.

You really could keep going into all sorts of rabbit holes regarding what exactly is the full story surrounding this virus.

If it’s so contagious why isn’t it spreading faster outside of China? Is it that 85% will have such mild symptoms that most cases might go actually unrecorded?

Do the authorities believe it’s a natural virus or biologically made? I imagine they won’t want to discuss this publically, but I presume they have all sorts of theories as to how this started. I thought that it was debunked that it started in that market, so what was the explanation?

I also can’t get my head around containment of this virus. If it can be 2 weeks before some people show symptoms it would be virtually impossible to stop the spread. How many people would the average person interact with in 2 weeks? Now add in people going to different countries, how many people would they meet, even just passing in an airport? If it takes 15 minutes of exposure to get it (heard that somewhere) then what about a person getting public transport to the airport. Then cueing up to check bags in. Then cueing up at security. Then having some food or drink. Then cueing up to get on plane. Then being on plane. Then waiting for bags at other end of destination. Then public transfer. Checking into hotel and then somebody cleaning that room the next day...

How does the virus not be catching on everywhere?

I’m genuinely curious....

igCorcaigh · 16-02-2020 02:20PM

Lyanna Salty Toadstool wrote: »

From what I have read its having the greatest critical effect on people aged 55 or over, more men than women and seems to have little effect on those under 15.

From the death stats available so far it does seem to be killing older people and those with underlying conditions (similar to flu) although there have been some that don't fit that category who have died as well.

The tendency towards male cases may be due to the fact that most men in China smoke tobacco.

wakka12 · 16-02-2020 02:29PM

laurah591 wrote: »

https://mobile.twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1228998880244781058

1st from Taiwan to die, 60's with underlying medical issues (diabetes and Hep B.)
Was he recorded as serious/critical before death?

Not yesterday anyway, there were just 6 critical yesterday in the Chinese regions Macau Hong Kong Taiwan , all 6 were in HK

Don't think it'd take much to kill a diabetic 60 something with Hep B, poor guy

MadYaker · 16-02-2020 02:30PM

Drumpot wrote: »

You really could keep going into all sorts of rabbit holes regarding what exactly is the full story surrounding this virus.

If it’s so contagious why isn’t it spreading faster outside of China? Is it that 85% will have such mild symptoms that most cases might go actually unrecorded?

Do the authorities believe it’s a natural virus or biologically made? I imagine they won’t want to discuss this publically, but I presume they have all sorts of theories as to how this started. I thought that it was debunked that it started in that market, so what was the explanation?

I also can’t get my head around containment of this virus. If it can be 2 weeks before some people show symptoms it would be virtually impossible to stop the spread. How many people would the average person interact with in 2 weeks? Now add in people going to different countries, how many people would they meet, even just passing in an airport? If it takes 15 minutes of exposure to get it (heard that somewhere) then what about a person getting public transport to the airport. Then cueing up to check bags in. Then cueing up at security. Then having some food or drink. Then cueing up to get on plane. Then being on plane. Then waiting for bags at other end of destination. Then public transfer. Checking into hotel and then somebody cleaning that room the next day...

How does the virus not be catching on everywhere? It’s been outside China for a month I think at this stage, is it unusual that we still don’t appear to know much about it (including how it spreads)?

I’m genuinely curious....

People have immune systems that fight it off. Your body comes into contact with thousands of different viruses and bacteria constantly 24/7. There's viruses and bacteria swilling around in your blood stream right now. They're all over your skin and clothes, on everything you touch etc etc. The normal influenza virus (in it's various strains) killed around 60,000 people last year in the UK alone. The only reason this one is getting attention is because it's new and new viruses are always more of a threat due people's immune systems not recognising them. Like all the other times this has happened it persists for a couple of months and then eventually subsides.

gozunda · 16-02-2020 02:30PM

MadYaker wrote: »

The example of one family is a statistical outlier. It's anecdotal and shouldn't be used an example of anything other than bad luck for that poor family. Based on the cases we've seen so far mortality rate seems to be somewhere between 2% to 3%. It's worth noting that China has been reporting a drop in the number of new cases for the last 3 days in a row now so it would seem at the moment that the spread of this virus is starting to slow after it's peak in the last 2 weeks or so. So it's unlikely the mortality will rise much now, as the spread of the virus slows down the number of people infected will drop and this virus will have run it's course in 4 to 6 weeks or so. It'll likely continue to be an issue in Hubei for another year or more though.

If we have learnt anything about the coronvirus is that it appears to be highly variable among those who are infected. Some only report coughs and mild symptoms - others (a much smaller number apparently) end up in ICU requiring intensive medical care.

Looking at disease modeling- for any given population - infection rates will generally start to plateau as all those at risk fall Ill, recover or die. That is not to say that the outbreak is starting to slow - rather it is in transmission to other susceptible populations.

The wider spread of that infection to other areas will most likely follow a similar pattern imo. The current increase in numbers in surrounding regions and countries is a case in point.

wadacrack · 16-02-2020 02:38PM

MadYaker wrote: »

People have immune systems that fight it off. Your body comes into contact with thousands of different viruses and bacteria constantly 24/7. There's viruses and bacteria swilling around in your blood stream right now. They're all over your skin and clothes, on everything you touch etc etc. The normal influenza virus (in it's various strains) killed around 60,000 people last year in the UK alone. The only reason this one is getting attention is because it's new and new viruses are always more of a threat due people's immune systems not recognising them. Like all the other times this has happened it persists for a couple of months and then eventually subsides.

Its not comparable to the flu. Far more dangerous and contagious

MadYaker · 16-02-2020 02:38PM

Yeah id be surprised if there isn't some transmission in singapore or tokyo. But it doesn't look like it'll be on the same level as what we saw in China. Part of the issue in China is that people don't cover their mouths when they cough, it just isn't considered something you do. People will cough right in your face and think nothing of it. Spitting on the street is also very common. I think these issues combined with very high pop density in urban areas are why China has struggled and we haven't seen the same spread elsewhere. Bit of a head scratcher though.

MadYaker · 16-02-2020 02:45PM

wadacrack wrote: »

Its not comparable to the flu. Far more dangerous and contagious

It is comparable, they are both viruses with similar pathology. It's too early to say that this corona virus is far more dangerous or contagious. We don't have enough info to make that call yet, but it looks likely as the mortality rate from the likes of influenza A and B is lower.

Timberrrrrrrr · 16-02-2020 02:47PM

MadYaker wrote: »

People have immune systems that fight it off. Your body comes into contact with thousands of different viruses and bacteria constantly 24/7. There's viruses and bacteria swilling around in your blood stream right now. They're all over your skin and clothes, on everything you touch etc etc. The normal influenza virus (in it's various strains) killed around 60,000 people last year in the UK alone. The only reason this one is getting attention is because it's new and new viruses are always more of a threat due people's immune systems not recognising them. Like all the other times this has happened it persists for a couple of months and then eventually subsides.

Can you link to a report for this please as I can't seem to find anywhere near those numbers reported for UK flu/influenza deaths.

MadYaker · 16-02-2020 02:50PM

I think it was 2018 not 2019, ill try find the report.

Ms2011 · 16-02-2020 02:56PM

igCorcaigh wrote: »

The tendency towards male cases may be due to the fact that most men in China smoke tobacco.

Would China's one child policy and favoritism towards sons not mean that it would have a higher male population and therefore higher likelihood of male casualties also?

Timberrrrrrrr · 16-02-2020 02:56PM

MadYaker wrote: »

I think it was 2018 not 2019, ill try find the report.

I seen something from 2017/2018that said an extra 45k deaths but that seems to have been down to an ineffective flu shot that only protected 1/10 especially over 65's.

MadYaker · 16-02-2020 02:59PM

Ms2011 wrote: »

Would China's one child policy and favoritism towards sons not mean that it would have a higher male population and therefore higher likelihood of male casualties also?

Despite the one child policy (which is now abolished) China's population is about 45:55 women to men, not much different to the rest of the world. If the virus is affecting more men it's likely because more men are smokers.

igCorcaigh · 16-02-2020 02:59PM

Ms2011 wrote: »

Would China's one child policy and favoritism towards sons not mean that it would have a higher male population and therefore higher likelihood of male casualties also?

Maybe that too. Good point.

odyssey06 · 16-02-2020 03:15PM

MadYaker wrote: »

Despite the one child policy (which is now abolished) China's population is about 45:55 women to men, not much different to the rest of the world. If the virus is affecting more men it's likely because more men are smokers.

More likely it is because of smoking.
Secondary factor - could men also be more exposed to air pollution, working outdoors or in factories I wonder? And therefore possible damage to respiratory system.

MadYaker · 16-02-2020 03:17PM

Air quality in urban areas in China is generally very bad and has been for decades I think so that probably doesn't help either.

1800_Ladladlad · 16-02-2020 03:20PM

It appeals the hospital they erected in 120 days in Wuhan is leaking heavely =, I don't know how much of the hospital is damaged. This was a brick and mortar location but more modules assembled and put together without

https://twitter.com/BasedPoland/status/1228900576576069632

odyssey06 · 16-02-2020 03:22PM

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

I seen something from 2017/2018that said an extra 45k deaths but that seems to have been down to an ineffective flu shot that only protected 1/10 especially over 65's.

That seems to be a very broad figure of excess winter mortality... I don't think it even looked at what the actual deaths were from. Ineffective flu vaccine is a good theory, but for all we know there was another virus or infection in circulation, and\or something exceptional about the weather \ pollution conditions.
How much of it was down to below average winter temperatures and the 'Beast from the East'.

It seems hard to scale up from these figures to 50000:
UK an average of 600 people a year die from complications of seasonal flu. However in 2013-14, it is estimated that about 11,000 people died from flu-related causes.
https://vk.ovg.ox.ac.uk/vk/influenza-flu

cnocbui · 16-02-2020 03:22PM

SeaBreezes wrote: »

First reported case in States, hard to see how it could have originated in another country and only first be reported in the States

where the first known case was reported at a military base in Kansas on March 11, 1918.

On 4 March 1918, company cook Albert Gitchell reported sick at Fort Riley, an American military facility that at the time was training American troops during World War I, making him the first recorded victim of the flu. Within days, 522 men at the camp had reported sick

If, say, a Chinese person delivering food supplies, or working as an assistant in the kitchen had gotten sick and died, it would never have been recorded or mentioned. Such people were invisible. It's unlikely an outbreak of flu in China would have made it into the historical record.

16-02-2020 03:29PM

Drumpot wrote: »

You really could keep going into all sorts of rabbit holes regarding what exactly is the full story surrounding this virus.

If it’s so contagious why isn’t it spreading faster outside of China? Is it that 85% will have such mild symptoms that most cases might go actually unrecorded?

Do the authorities believe it’s a natural virus or biologically made? I imagine they won’t want to discuss this publically, but I presume they have all sorts of theories as to how this started. I thought that it was debunked that it started in that market, so what was the explanation?

I also can’t get my head around containment of this virus. If it can be 2 weeks before some people show symptoms it would be virtually impossible to stop the spread. How many people would the average person interact with in 2 weeks? Now add in people going to different countries, how many people would they meet, even just passing in an airport?

If it takes 15 minutes of exposure to get it (heard that somewhere) then what about a person getting public transport to the airport. Then cueing up to check bags in. Then cueing up at security. Then having some food or drink. Then cueing up to get on plane. Then being on plane. Then waiting for bags at other end of destination. Then public transfer. Checking into hotel and then somebody cleaning that room the next day...

How does the virus not be catching on everywhere? It’s been outside China for a month I think at this stage, is it unusual that we still don’t appear to know much about it (including how it spreads)?

I’m genuinely curious....

As mentioned earlier, there is a “cultural” habit of spitting, especially among the less educated people in China. I took a trip from Ireland to Beijing and Shanghai, incorporating what should have been a lively cruise to Jspan and South Korea. Whilst the big Chinese cities are kept very free from litter and graffiti etc, you do see men spitting. On board the cruise it was horrendous, men spitting all over the food and quite frankly some deplorable behaviour.

Our Chinese guides quietly explained that there is a huge problem about very low education levels in a cohort. Whilst they work very hard physically, they received minimal schooling. I was born in 1961 and when a child I used to see lots and lots of men in Dublin spitting. Of course you still see this among the “scobes”, but much less. In 1980 I was travelling to Orkney islands and I remember on board the Very old bus to the port was a sign “no spitting”, but the habit in men in Ireland and UK was starting to be behind us.

However I noticed young Chinese people were generally much better educated. One of our guides, in spite of never having been to Ireland, had learned Irish, and Welsh, and had a fascination for Celtic culture. Indeed he was due to commence studies later that year in Bangor University, Wales. He would explain things happening around us in Beijing in terms of Irish culture, eg “you see that Garda car there, those Gardaí are stopping the Culchies from coming into the city centre as they are only allowed to come in Mondays, Wednesdays, Fridays... to relieve traffic congestion”.

Health and safety culture would vary. Three of our fellow travellers had brought cigarette lighters in the checked-in luggage from Dublin-Heathrow-Beijing. When we were about to depart in a flight Beijing-Shanghai the three were called up to security to open the suitcases and remove the lighters and given a warning how dangerous it was to have them in the flight. On board the aircraft we were then treated to a pre-flight video of a fire smoking up an aircraft cabin and passengers bending down and putting scarf etc around face to escape and survive!

Kermit.de.frog · 16-02-2020 03:56PM

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1229014125625389056

SeaBreezes · 16-02-2020 04:27PM

cnocbui wrote: »

If, say, a Chinese person delivering food supplies, or working as an assistant in the kitchen had gotten sick and died, it would never have been recorded or mentioned. Such people were invisible. It's unlikely an outbreak of flu in China would have made it into the historical record.

A flu with a mortality rate of 30-40% in China in 1918 would have been recorded as it made its way from china to Europe and the states. The trail of destruction that virus and its mortality rate was shocking.

And if the person was a cook? How many more would they have infected? Disaster. Just as happened in the states.

Makes no sense that a virus that was so virulent and such a high mortality rate could march accross a continent to another without anyone noticing..

imfml · 16-02-2020 04:31PM

There was a Channel 4 interview with a British couple in the cruise ship in Japan posted here. They mentioned they were keeping in touch via Facebook with other British couples and an Irish couple they met on the ship. Has it been confirmed there is an Irish couple on the ship? I really feel for anyone on that cruise.

new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

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