new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

wakka12 · 14-02-2020 10:40AM

Several new cases in Hong Kong and Tokyo

BanditLuke · 14-02-2020 10:43AM

Lot more talk today about other nations asking the Chinese to be more open about what is happening in Wuhan. Really hard to know the present situation as a lot of the original bloggers seemed to have been shut down and the Chinese are putting out propaganda on social media platforms.

BanditLuke · 14-02-2020 10:45AM

https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021154v1&sa=D&source=hangouts&ust=1581728882814000&usg=AFQjCNGD7BXJPfVEPrDa652pX-rcKNPPbg

Very interesting read.

The novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is a recently emerged human pathogen that has spread widely since January 2020. Initially, the basic reproductive number, R0, was estimated to be 2.2 to 2.7. Here we provide a new estimate of this quantity. We collected extensive individual case reports and estimated key epidemiology parameters, including the incubation period. Integrating these estimates and high-resolution real-time human travel and infection data with mathematical models, we estimated that the number of infected individuals during early epidemic double every 2.4 days, and the R0 value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6. We further show that quarantine and contact tracing of symptomatic individuals alone may not be effective and early, strong control measures are needed to stop transmission of the virus.

partyguinness · 14-02-2020 10:50AM

Duke of Url wrote: »

lol

Again I ask you. How many Flu cases are in Ireland each year?

Why do you ask? Go and find out for yourself...

Duke of Url · 14-02-2020 10:54AM

partyguinness wrote: »

Why do you ask? Go and find out for yourself...

The HSE will give me a number of confirmed Flu cases.

Where do I find the number of people who had the flu but didnt go to the doctor or Hospital.

I dont think Ireland is being Transparent on the real number of Flu cases.

gozunda · 14-02-2020 10:55AM

hmmm wrote: »

Stop shouting at me, you sound demented.

There's over a billion people in China, and the epidemic is centred in one area. The HSE has given reasonable advice, which both avoids panic and racism. If you're going to ignore that advice, you should be rightly called out for the consequences of your actions.

It's likely we will see this disease spread further around the world in the coming months, and we're going to have to deal with this without running away from anyone who doesn't have a big Irish head on them.

Seriously?

Get a grip. It doesnt matter whether the child is from China or Mars or Ireland - the fact that the family returned from an area which is experiencing one the most serious outbreaks of a highly contagious disease is what is relevant. But just you keep going on the high horse there.

VinLieger · 14-02-2020 10:57AM

Duke of Url wrote: »

The HSE will give me a number of confirmed Flu cases.

Where do I find the number of people who had the flu but didnt go to the doctor or Hospital.

I dont think Ireland is being Transparent on the real number of Flu cases.

But they correctly record the number of deaths, we have more annually than china with a population of 0.3% vs them yet you still believe china are giving us the real statistics.

14-02-2020 10:58AM

One of the people diagnosed with coronavirus in the **UK** attended a central London conference with more than 200 delegates, PA reports.

The person, who has not been named, attended the UK Bus Summit at the QEII Centre in Westminster on 6 February.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/feb/14/coronavirus-latest-updates-wuhan-hubei-china-deaths-cruise-ship-sydney-cases-covid19-live-news

Not many steps away from bus drivers and mass transit

SeaBreezes · 14-02-2020 11:01AM

That resolved case to fatality percent still dropping, down to 16% after the latest adjustment.

The National Health Commission of China, in its February 14 official report, deducted 108 previously reported deaths and 1,043 previously reported cases from the total in Hubei Province due to "repeated statistics." We have updated the daily (Feb. 12 and Feb. 13) and cumulative totals accordingly

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#feb-14

pc7 · 14-02-2020 11:02AM

Looks like the English are racist too father :pac: (please ignore source)

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8003387/Coronavirus-panic-leaves-Londons-Chinese-district-empty.html

Duke of Url · 14-02-2020 11:03AM

VinLieger wrote: »

Jesus do i have to explain this again i suppose for maybe the 10th time.

China do not record deaths correctly, this is an indisputable fact. Heres an example, say you contracted coronavirus here and then got pneumonia and die of maybe organ failure. All 3 of those illnesses would be listed on your death cert and added to the statistics.

In China they record 1 of these, and its usually the direct cause of death, so in this case it would be organ failure and not any of the underlying causes that led to it like corona virus so we have no way to know how many have died due to it.

The best example of this is china with a population of 1.3 billion officially recorded less than 200 seasonal flu related deaths last year, the US with a population of 350 million had 61000.

The Death rates China are reporting based on people who were confirmed to have the Virus.

If you tested positive - got pneumonia you were added to the stats.

Should we add the deaths of people who tested negative who got pneumonia to the stats also?

VinLieger · 14-02-2020 11:06AM

Duke of Url wrote: »

The Death rates China are reporting based on people who were confirmed to have the Virus.

If you tested positive - got pneumonia you were added to the stats.

Should we add the deaths of people who tested negative who got pneumonia to the stats also?

Lol you believe they have done this honestly considering everything up until now. There is literally now way the tiny adjustment they made could correctly account for the real amount of deaths that the infection rate and critical care required to treat have likely caused.

Why do you think they deserve the benefit of the doubt after trying to cover this up, arrest doctors warning about it, misreporting statistics for weeks and refusing to let external observers in till very recently.

rosiem · 14-02-2020 11:07AM

hmmm wrote: »

Thanks for your unwanted advice.

Taking your kids out of school, against HSE advice, because of a Chinese kid is a form of racism in my opinion.

I know it's fashionable these days to start talking about liberal snowflakes and the like, but it doesn't change what it is.

We all want to protect our kids, but our kids are best served by parents not panicking every time there is a new scare, and not teaching our kids to avoid people who look different to them. In a big school there is probably kids who are not Chinese who may have been to China, or have parents who have been travelling to and from China - any of them could have become infected.

And do you consider the Chinese family themselves are also racist by segregating their children ???

SeaBreezes · 14-02-2020 11:07AM

Deleted User wrote: »

One of the people diagnosed with coronavirus in the **UK** attended a central London conference with more than 200 delegates, PA reports.

The person, who has not been named, attended the UK Bus Summit at the QEII Centre in Westminster on 6 February.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/feb/14/coronavirus-latest-updates-wuhan-hubei-china-deaths-cruise-ship-sydney-cases-covid19-live-news

Not many steps away from bus drivers and mass transit

You couldn't make this sh*t up.. if it was in Dean R Koontz book it'd be deemed too fictional..

Was this one of the 'horsemen' bus drivers who had no masks and were sent home to self isolate for 10 days?

14-02-2020 11:09AM

Jaysus.. Hanoi closes schools for another week. Five weeks off now in total. It's a good thing I'm made for early retirement and am perfectly happy sitting around working on this and that.

odyssey06 · 14-02-2020 11:11AM

Duke of Url wrote: »

The Death rates China are reporting based on people who were confirmed to have the Virus.

If you tested positive - got pneumonia you were added to the stats.

Should we add the deaths of people who tested negative who got pneumonia to the stats also?

Maybe they could tell us how many people have died from respitatory related illnesses full stop. Together with previous years figures.
Is there a significant spike in pnuemonia related deaths?

hmmm · 14-02-2020 11:12AM

Duke of Url wrote: »

The Death rates China are reporting based on people who were confirmed to have the Virus.

If you tested positive - got pneumonia you were added to the stats.

Should we add the deaths of people who tested negative who got pneumonia to the stats also?

That's actually what they've started doing in Hubei (not sure about outside this region). The reason for the recent jump in deaths being recorded was that they went back through recent pneumonia deaths that were either not tested, or had a 'negative' to ncov (the tests unfortunately are not perfect).

FishOnABike · 14-02-2020 11:13AM

VinLieger wrote: »

The best example of this is china with a population of 1.3 billion officially recorded less than 200 seasonal flu related deaths last year, the US with a population of 350 million had 61000.

If we assume a similar rate of seasonal flu related deaths in China as the US there should be approx. 226,570 (1,300,000,000 / 350,000 * 61000 = 226571).

When they only report 200 seasonal flu related deaths one has to view any of their statistics about SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 with extreme scepticism. Their actions would indicate that the problem is far greater than their official statistics indicate.

Duke of Url · 14-02-2020 11:14AM

VinLieger wrote: »

Lol you believe they have done this honestly considering everything up until now. There is literally now way the tiny adjustment they made could correctly account for the real amount of deaths that the infection rate and critical care required to treat have likely caused.

Why do you think they deserve the benefit of the doubt after trying to cover this up, arrest doctors warning about it, misreporting statistics for weeks and refusing to let external observers in till very recently.

Lets face it. With the Coronavirus. You have 0 facts that back up for statement that China are covering up the death rate in relation to this virus.

SeaBreezes · 14-02-2020 11:18AM

hmmm wrote: »

That's actually what they've started doing in Hubei (not sure about outside this region). The reason for the recent jump in deaths being recorded was that they went back through recent pneumonia deaths that were either not tested, or had a 'negative' to ncov (the tests unfortunately are not perfect).

From now they are including clinically diagnosed who then die in new deaths.
They haven't adjusted historically.
Just since WHO arrived to observe.

Duke of Url · 14-02-2020 11:22AM

odyssey06 wrote: »

Maybe they could tell us how many people have died from respitatory related illnesses full stop. Together with previous years figures.
Is there a significant spike in pnuemonia related deaths?

This Virus is still a few weeks old.

Isnt that analysis more relevant when this is over?

The answer could be no today and then Yes in 4 weeks time.

People will just say "but..but...but.... China said it didnt increase only 4 weeks ago! Liars.......

VinLieger · 14-02-2020 11:22AM

Duke of Url wrote: »

Lets face it. With the Coronavirus. You have 0 facts that back up for statement that China are covering up the death rate in relation to this virus.

Except they just admitted they were doing it up until two days ago by adjusting the figures..... Also they have been trying to cover up every aspect of it since it started.

Then lets look at their history, it took them 3 months to tell the WHO about the SARS outbreak, they are one of the most secretive and authoritarian regimes on the planet who are controlling social media and punishing anyone who contradicts the party line..... But yes its me who has no evidence of them covering up the real facts....

hmmm · 14-02-2020 11:23AM

Duke of Url wrote: »

Lets face it. With the Coronavirus. You have 0 facts that back up for statement that China are covering up the death rate in relation to this virus.

Agreed. And if everytime someone quotes figures we hear "oh well those are fake" than we're just into conspiracy theories and a useless thread. We can only work with the figures we have.

Part of the issue with the figures is that this is fast-moving, and there is limits on testing and hospital capacity, meaning it leaves an open-door for conspiracy theorists when new hospitals open or new tests are done and the numbers jump.

There's a WHO team recently arrived on the ground in China with apparently some very good people involved, and they will no doubt be reporting back if they are concerned the figures are incorrect.

pc7 · 14-02-2020 11:25AM

Human impact aside, the financials must be crippling China now for parts to be shut down so long.

hmmm · 14-02-2020 11:25AM

VinLieger wrote: »

Except they just admitted they were doing it up until two days ago by adjusting the figures...

They adjusted the figures by including people who had tested negative, but had clear symptoms. I'm not sure what more they can be expected to do - if anything the new figures are going to start over-stating cases in time.

VinLieger · 14-02-2020 11:26AM

hmmm wrote: »

Agreed. And if everytime someone quotes figures we hear "oh well those are fake" than we're just into conspiracy theories and a useless thread. We can only work with the figures we have.

Part of the issue with the figures is that this is fast-moving, and there is limits on testing and hospital capacity, meaning it leaves an open-door for conspiracy theorists when new hospitals open or new tests are done and the numbers jump.

There's a WHO team recently arrived on the ground in China with apparently some very good people involved, and they will no doubt be reporting back if they are concerned the figures are incorrect.

The point is not that they are fake but that they shouldnt be relied on for decision making and viewed with extreme skepticism.

odyssey06 · 14-02-2020 11:26AM

Duke of Url wrote: »

This Virus is still a few weeks old.

Isnt that analysis more relevant when this is over?

The answer could be no today and then Yes in 4 weeks time.

People will just say "but..but...but.... China said it didnt increase only 4 weeks ago! Liars.......

No. If there is a significant spike in respiratory related deaths when they know a new virus is circulating and they dont call that out it is concealment.
Of course it is relevant.

VinLieger · 14-02-2020 11:29AM

hmmm wrote: »

They adjusted the figures by including people who had tested negative, but had clear symptoms. I'm not sure what more they can be expected to do - if anything the new figures are going to start over-stating cases in time.

What can be expected is for them to change their reporting nationally for deaths and start recording them properly, these changes you are lauding are only happening in wuhan

Duke of Url · 14-02-2020 11:32AM

odyssey06 wrote: »

No. If there is a significant spike in respiratory related deaths when they know a new virus is circulating and they dont call that out it is concealment.
Of course it is relevant.

So your saying that all respiratory related deaths minus the average from last year and the year before now need to be added to the stats for Coronavirus Death rate?

MD1990 · 14-02-2020 11:32AM

How many cases would Ireland or the UK need to go into lockdown I wonder?

new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

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