new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

pc7 · 13-02-2020 03:34PM

I don’t know how reliable the source is, so will delete if anyone knows if fake news/bad site, scary if true

https://twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1227951785073090566?s=21

bb12 · 13-02-2020 03:34PM

Deleted User wrote: »

How can I be the only who spots you're out by two magnitudes of order? Multiple pages later and all these people read this post and accepted that 60k in China equates to 18k in Ireland.

4,500,000 * .00004 = 180

15% of those infected would need oxygen = 180 * .15 = 27
Of these 27 cases up to 5% would need intenstive care = 27 * .05 = 1.35

doh! yes it was .004 of 1 percent so forgot to divide by the hundred.

Wow even better numbers then!

As i said in my original post these numbers will of course change as more positives will be added, but as they stand today i don't believe there's any reason why the merchants of doom should currently be predicting the demise of the irish people.

banie01 · 13-02-2020 03:37PM

From observing the return of large numbers of Chinese and E.Asian students to campus over the last couple of days and given its week 3 of semester.

I'd guess that there was a 14day period when lots of folk from that region self isolated.

We have been getting updates as to hand sanitizer and following HSE advice over the last few weeks but the Chinese were noticeable by their absence until this week.

Is there any update on the rate of infection number?
I've seen from 0.9 to 4 reported, has that been locked down yet?

ceadaoin. · 13-02-2020 03:40PM

The reason is got out of hand in china is because nothing was done to stop the spread at the beginning. Other countries are implementing quarantines and contact tracing etc as soon as cases are being diagnosed. People are aware that they should take measures to not get sick. All those huge predicted numbers are worst case scenarios (10s of millions infected in the uk for example), as in if no preventative measures are taken and are very unlikely to come to pass. Of course they make better headlines though. You dont think governments have been planning for these things. I mean there are literally people whose job it is just to do that.

Call Me Jimmy · 13-02-2020 03:41PM

pc7 wrote: »

I don’t know how reliable the source is, so will delete if anyone knows if fake news/bad site, scary if true

https://twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1227951785073090566?s=21

Very reliable and a source for many people. Obviously just the next in a long line of communist / totalitarian tools to be deployed.

wakka12 · 13-02-2020 03:42PM

Millions banned from leaving their home in cities near Wuhan
https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/f39u3f/new_huanggang_a_city_of_6_million_people_near/
https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/f39ymt/breaking_dawu_county_in_hubei_province_announces/

..just the flu

Ficheall · 13-02-2020 03:42PM

pc7 wrote: »

I don’t know how reliable the source is, so will delete if anyone knows if fake news/bad site, scary if true

https://twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1227951785073090566?s=21

That's been out a few days - maybe a contributing factor to the spike in cases!
And twice as much money if you report yourself..

Edit: Sorry, that was reported in Fangxian - other side of Hubei.

josip · 13-02-2020 03:50PM

pc7 wrote: »

I don’t know how reliable the source is, so will delete if anyone knows if fake news/bad site, scary if true

https://twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1227951785073090566?s=21

Reminds me of

https://rarehistoricalphotos.com/rat-catchers-1900s/

Wibbs · 13-02-2020 03:58PM

banie01 wrote: »

Is there any update on the rate of infection number?
I've seen from 0.9 to 4 reported, has that been locked down yet?

It's yet another factor in this disease that's all over the place as far as numbers go.

GooglePlus · 13-02-2020 04:00PM

pc7 wrote: »

I don’t know how reliable the source is, so will delete if anyone knows if fake news/bad site, scary if true

https://twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1227951785073090566?s=21

One sure way to increase false reports.

BanditLuke · 13-02-2020 04:18PM

ceadaoin. wrote: »

The reason is got out of hand in china is because nothing was done to stop the spread at the beginning. Other countries are implementing quarantines and contact tracing etc as soon as cases are being diagnosed. People are aware that they should take measures to not get sick. All those huge predicted numbers are worst case scenarios (10s of millions infected in the uk for example), as in if no preventative measures are taken and are very unlikely to come to pass. Of course they make better headlines though. You dont think governments have been planning for these things. I mean there are literally people whose job it is just to do that.

There are literally people who's job it is to run the HSE and look how that operates.

fritzelly · 13-02-2020 04:19PM

Today's WHO briefing - starting very shortly (late as usual)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=34s6hIIS8cI

13-02-2020 04:21PM

odyssey06 wrote: »

And especially if we are talking about a respiratory disease, levels of air pollution if significant enough to have weakened \ damaged lungs could be a factor.
Wuhan's seems to rate moderate to poor.
https://aqicn.org/city/wuhan/

Beijing and Shanghai have appalling air quality. They’re the only cities in China I have visited, but you can see a thick smog emanating from Shanghai when going up their tower and indeed arriving by ship.

13-02-2020 04:31PM

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Though it is true that differing Ethnicity can have an outcome on how you are affected by the Flu ... as evidenced by the severe effect Spanish Flu had on ethnic populations.

A recent study on the Maori population:
Evidence suggests that indigenous populations have suffered disproportionately from past influenza pandemics. To examine any such patterns for Māori in New Zealand, we searched the literature and performed new analyses by using additional datasets. The Māori death rate in the 1918 pandemic (4,230/100,000 population) was 7.3× the European rate. In the 1957 pandemic, the Māori death rate (40/100,000) was 6.2× the European rate. In the 2009 pandemic, the Māori rate was higher than the European rate (rate ratio 2.6, 95% confidence interval 1.3–5.3). These findings suggest some decline in pandemic-related ethnic inequalities in death rates over the past century. Nevertheless, the persistent excess in adverse outcomes for Māori, and for Pacific persons residing in New Zealand, highlights the need for improved public health responses.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3310086/

Probably due to immunological naivety. The youngest and fittest dropped down faster than the older people who had weathered previous influenza. The cytokine storm, a super-strong kind of immunological reaction, can be the very thing that kills. A healthy person who has weathered similar viruses before “knows” better how to deal with the virus without killing the patient, where the immune system has been educated. I suspect those relatively few individuals who have survived SARS 1 may have dome relative protection from developing CoVid-19. This is something that will possibly emerge.

Wibbs · 13-02-2020 04:40PM

Deleted User wrote: »

I suspect those relatively few individuals who have survived SARS

Actually taking overall figures nearly 90% of people who caught SARS survived, though it it did kill half of all elderly patients who caught it. Some of the survivors still suffer chronic physical(and some mental)debilitation down to today.

BloodBath · 13-02-2020 04:50PM

Apologies in advance for this long post but I wanted to reply to a few since yesterday.

Deleted User wrote: »

You can catch the flu one year and catch again the next year. It's does change around a good bit hence why you have to get the flu vaccine every year.

Nope. Not the same strain. Only if it mutated. You can catch 2 different strains in the same winter season though. The flu vaccine only protects from last years strain so it's pretty useless against the current virus.

Sean 18 wrote: »

Shocking that RTÉ are completely ignoring this most of the older population won't think there's a problem when they won't hear it on the news

It's not a problem until there's a confirmed case in Ireland which may not happen at all. They still should probably be asking people to be a bit more vigilant with hygiene to be on the safe side.

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Ahhhh the WHO are on the ground. Harder to hide the dead bodies then. So the infected number had to jump to balance the numbers.

Off to the conspiracy theory forum with you.

Ulysses Gaze wrote: »

Society will collapse, particularly in a Globalised world. Imagine people in front line services and utilities not turning up to work?

How long would a Power Grid stay up? How long would water systems still run? How long would food still be delivered to the stores with an infection rate that we are seeing in China?

Also, consider this.

China is pretty much a Totalitarian state that is throwing all its resources at this and can't control it. The people there are much more pliant than Western "free" folk so we haven't seen riots or mass panic.

Can you imagine trying to control this in Western Democracies if the infection rates are close to what we are seeing in China?

Let's put things in perspective here. Wuhan has a population of 11 million people fairly densely populated and there's only roughly 60k confirmed cases there. This is largely thanks to the Chinese efforts to contain but it's still a very low number. Granted a number that is still increasing despite the efforts.

VinLieger wrote: »

Your starting figure which is where you based your infection percentage off is coming directly from the chinese government also none of the lancet or jama papers have been peer reviewed yet and they are not being written by doctors on the ground in wuhan.

In fact the lancet and jama papers estimate the infection rate to be at least triple whats being reported.

Also your methodology of trying to extrapolate it out of china's entire population shows a complete misunderstanding of how and why hubei province is in such dire circumstances compared to everywhere else.

If that is the case which I have no doubt of and have been saying all along then the mortality rate is far below 1%. The Chinese can only report confirmed cases.

pc7 wrote: »

I don’t know how reliable the source is, so will delete if anyone knows if fake news/bad site, scary if true

https://twitter.com/bnodesk/status/1227951785073090566?s=21

Why is it scary? They are trying to contain a deadly virus.

wakka12 · 13-02-2020 04:50PM

2 more confirmed in India, 1 in texas USA

http://www.donga.com/news/article/all/20200213/99665772/1
Several officials in north korea have been executed for not obeying quarantine procedures..but sure maybe this is not even newsworthy given where it occurred!

Timberrrrrrrr · 13-02-2020 04:54PM

Just got this text message from my old doctors here in the UK

If you have travelled to China or been in contact with Coronavirus in the last two weeks and develop symptoms, please call 111 for further advice. Thank you Peelhouse Medical Plaza

one armed dwarf · 13-02-2020 04:58PM

I see that Lewisham has a case, my old UK home not far from there either.

The amount of people going in and out of east london is scary to think about

4068ac1elhodqr · 13-02-2020 05:01PM

No great surprise, despite public information and information alerts over in the uk:

The 1st case of coronavirus was diagnosed in London after a woman arrived unannounced in an 'Uber' at a busy A&E, after flying in to Heathrow from China.
She “self-presented” at Lewisham (slightly busy and densely populated area) hospital’s A&E unit last Sunday afternoon.

It gets worse:
The woman was sent home in an ambulance pending the results of the test, and on Wednesday when they returned positive, she was taken to St Thomas’ hospital for specialist treatment.

Two staff members from the hospital in south London are now in isolation at home after coming into contact with the woman.

An litany of errors and elevated risk from just a single individual.

13-02-2020 05:02PM

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

Just got this text message from my old doctors here in the UK

A doctors surgery in Islington is closed today for a deep clean as they had a patient there yesterday who was showing symptoms. This is what will cause a big strain on the system. Calling ahead is vital.

Good idea to text all numbers they had on record.

Call Me Jimmy · 13-02-2020 05:03PM

one armed dwarf wrote: »

I see that Lewisham has a case, my old UK home not far from there either.

The amount of people going in and out of east london is scary to think about

Doesn't help that the reporting has largely been 'It's Just A Flu Bro'. Hence, people who do get it often don't know things like 'don't get in an uber and go to the hospital, sit in the waiting room in london' etc.

13-02-2020 05:04PM

one armed dwarf wrote: »

I see that Lewisham has a case, my old UK home not far from there either.

The amount of people going in and out of east london is scary to think about

Is that a confirmed case?

13-02-2020 05:06PM

I’m from South East London. Went to school in Lewisham and have family still living not too far away.

Feels a bit more real right now.

13-02-2020 05:08PM

Wibbs wrote: »

Actually taking overall figures nearly 90% of people who caught SARS survived, though it it did kill half of all elderly patients who caught it. Some of the survivors still suffer chronic physical(and some mental)debilitation down to today.

What I meant really was the few people overall in the world who acquired and survived SARS 1. I’m wondering if those, who recovered from it back to a healthy state, will be found to have some Relative immunity to getting full blown SARS 2.

1800_Ladladlad · 13-02-2020 05:09PM

There appears to be alot of this kind of activity going on thats making its way out online

https://twitter.com/BasedPoland/status/1227790787729149952

Call Me Jimmy · 13-02-2020 05:12PM

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

I’m from South East London. Went to school in Lewisham and have family still living not too far away.

Feels a bit more real right now.

That's the point us CoNSpIRaCY ThEoRiSts have been trying to raise. The pattern has repeated from wuhan, to other cities to the whole province, and out across china and into other countries. Everything is fine until it isn't. The scale of the reaction in China is unprecedented. Each time it goes to a new place everyone keeps getting shot down for saying 'this is a big deal'. It's not to be panicked but to be aware. The main problem has been how little we know about the disease, partly because china for a lot of different reasons haven't been as transparent as they could be and so there is further lag in understanding and interpreting the situation.

So while we are in the situation of not knowing enough about the disease, any place that it pops up will also see reflexive shut downs of schools, work places etc.

Indeed a couple of days ago Indeed told their staff to work from home. More of that will come in the UK very shortly.

theguzman · 13-02-2020 05:15PM

Chilling reading, we don't know the origin of this virus, but the spectre of it being manmade is all too possible to discount.

https://reason.com/2006/04/03/to-save-the-planet-kill-90-per/

MD1990 · 13-02-2020 05:15PM

WHO said that the rise in clinical cases yesterday was cumulative & not all in one day.

They expect it to come down today. Also the the clinical deaths over 100 all had Pneumonia not 100% confirmed as Coronavirus

pc7 · 13-02-2020 05:16PM

BloodBath wrote: »

Why is it scary? They are trying to contain a deadly virus.

Because if you didn't like Billy living down the road you could report him, if some of the images of people being taken away are valid you could have well people taken into quarantine with 1000's of sick people. They may not check you have a fever, the testing hasn't been reliable so I am not sure of such tactics tbh.

new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

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