new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

VinLieger · 13-02-2020 01:22PM

bb12 wrote: »

ok so looking at china's numbers for today 59804 infected.
so whats the population of china? 1.5 billion?

59804/1,500,000,000 = current infection rate of 0.004% of total population.

in terms of irish population that would equate to an infected rate of
4,500,000 * .004 = 18,000

15% of those infected would need oxygen = 18000 * .15 = 2700
Of these 2700 cases up to 5% would need intenstive care = 2700 * .05 = 135

So these figures represent the full flow of the disease in china at the minute and as its infected figures go up, so would the possible infected figures in ireland...

but so far they don't look too bad for ireland...definitely not apocalyptic yet anyhow.

Those numbers are nowhere near correct and neither are the deaths, todays spike in both deaths and infections proves the theories that china have been misreporting the real numbers since the start and theres no reason to believe the new methods are giving us the full picture either

13-02-2020 01:24PM

bb12 wrote: »

ok so looking at china's numbers for today 59804 infected.
so whats the population of china? 1.5 billion?

59804/1,500,000,000 = current infection rate of 0.004% of total population.

in terms of irish population that would equate to an infected rate of
4,500,000 * .004 = 18,000

15% of those infected would need oxygen = 18000 * .15 = 2700
Of these 2700 cases up to 5% would need intenstive care = 2700 * .05 = 135

So these figures represent the full flow of the disease in china at the minute and as its infected figures go up, so would the possible infected figures in ireland...

but so far they don't look too bad for ireland...definitely not apocalyptic yet anyhow.

Do to the shear size of China as a country would it not be better to compare it with an area with a similar landmass like Europe? Or even compare with the province of Hubei?

UsBus · 13-02-2020 01:26PM

Scrabbles38 wrote: »

Sorry spelling mistake bent America

What was it that first interested you in scrabble...?

bb12 · 13-02-2020 01:26PM

VinLieger wrote: »

Those numbers are nowhere near correct and neither are the deaths, todays spike in both deaths and infections proves the theories that china have been misreporting the real numbers since the start and theres no reason to believe the new methods are giving us the full picture either

I didn't mention anything about deaths.

Those are the statistics and percentages currently being published by peer reviewed scientific papers from doctors in the midst of the crisis...that's the only source we can truly rely on at the moment and not hearsay...of course the figures will changes as more facts come to light but these sources are the only true ones you should rely on for information at the moment.

wakka12 · 13-02-2020 01:33PM

Japanese woman who died had not left the country any time recently and has no known links to any infected person

https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/f395wl/the_woman_in_japan_who_died_of_coronavirus_had/

She is the first non-Chinese national outside China to die from coronavirus.

Zenify · 13-02-2020 01:36PM

bb12 wrote: »

ok so looking at china's numbers for today 59804 infected.
so whats the population of china? 1.5 billion?

59804/1,500,000,000 = current infection rate of 0.004% of total population.

in terms of irish population that would equate to an infected rate of
4,500,000 * .004 = 18,000

15% of those infected would need oxygen = 18000 * .15 = 2700
Of these 2700 cases up to 5% would need intenstive care = 2700 * .05 = 135

So these figures represent the full flow of the disease in china at the minute and as its infected figures go up, so would the possible infected figures in ireland...

but so far they don't look too bad for ireland...definitely not apocalyptic yet anyhow.

The figures right now are not bad. Nobody is saying that this is really bad right now. It's how fast it is going to spread. This isn't going to stop here, it is going to get worse and that's the problem. This is not contained and it is far to contagious to contain now.

The Spanish flu started with 1 person and 50 million ended up dead. I'm not saying that is going to happen here but your argument is flawed. If they re-release smallpox (nearly happened a few years ago by accident) to just 1 person are you saying it's not a big deal it's just 1 person? It would be a major problem for the world just like this.

bb12 · 13-02-2020 01:44PM

Zenify wrote: »

The figures right now are not bad. Nobody is saying that this is really bad right now. It's how fast it is going to spread. This isn't going to stop here, it is going to get worse and that's the problem. This is not contained and it is far to contagious to contain now.

The Spanish flu started with 1 person and 50 million ended up dead. I'm not saying that is going to happen here but your argument is flawed. If they re-release smallpox (nearly happened a few years ago by accident) to just 1 person are you saying it's not a big deal it's just 1 person? It would be a major problem for the world just like this.

I didn't say it wasn't a big deal...I'm just pointing out that with the disease in full flow in china after nearly 2 months of it being let loose and getting out of control, the corresponding statistics applied to ireland's population are not currently catastrophic...yes of course this is an evolving situation and numbers will change, but you have to look calmly at the figures before letting panic in...

plus in ireland we're not as crammed in as they are in china's cities. we're now aware of the virus so people will take extra measures for hygiene etc so the chances of it running riot like it did in china for the past 2 months are a lot slimmer here and in western europe in general...as evidenced by the lack of new cases being reported over the last few weeks.

13-02-2020 01:49PM

Ms2011 wrote: »

Have on one my Smart Watch. Always at 97%.

Mine pops down to 91-93% when I get a bout of atrial fibrillation. On aspirin for it as I could be prone to strokes and there are very small patches of past damage on brain mri. With these commonplace health issues you have to be a bit careful.

Scrabbles38 · 13-02-2020 01:50PM

UsBus wrote: »

What was it that first interested you in scrabble...?

I’m a front line emergency service worker

13-02-2020 01:50PM

wakka12 wrote: »

Japanese woman who died had not left the country any time recently and has no known links to any infected person

https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/f395wl/the_woman_in_japan_who_died_of_coronavirus_had/

As per that reddit link

Jan 21st - Felt unwell
Feb 1st - hospitalised and diagnosed with pneumonia
Feb 12th - condition worsens
Feb 13th - dies and tests positive for Covid19

She wasn’t tested previously?

wakka12 · 13-02-2020 01:50PM

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

Is the death in Japan related to the cruise liner passengers?

No, she had not recently left the area of Tokyo she lived in.

And yeh^ that is pretty crazy. Cases like this make me think coronavirus is already circulating worldwide. Seriously this woman was sick with coronavirus for over a week just outside Tokyo the biggest city on earth and didnt infect one other person? it seems unbelievable, and who infected her? And she was in a busy hospital for weeks being touched by probably dozens of staff who didnt know she had coronavirus? She was also infectious for at least several days before 21st January,almost a month ago, and that means the person who infected her who was travelling in Tokyo had coronavirus as far back as 21st January and infected her, and that person could have had the virus in Tokyo for weeks before that even.

There were just 240 confirmed cases in all of China by 21st January, it wasnt even confirmed whether it could spread from human to human then, but it had already occurred in Tokyo days prior.

Mic 1972 · 13-02-2020 01:51PM

bb12 wrote: »

ok so looking at china's numbers for today 59804 infected.
so whats the population of china? 1.5 billion?

59804/1,500,000,000 = current infection rate of 0.004% of total population.

in terms of irish population that would equate to an infected rate of
4,500,000 * .004 = 18,000

15% of those infected would need oxygen = 18000 * .15 = 2700
Of these 2700 cases up to 5% would need intenstive care = 2700 * .05 = 135

So these figures represent the full flow of the disease in china at the minute and as its infected figures go up, so would the possible infected figures in ireland...

but so far they don't look too bad for ireland...definitely not apocalyptic yet anyhow.

The number of infected people in China is doubling on a weekly basis

Ficheall · 13-02-2020 01:51PM

bb12 wrote: »

the disease in full flow in china after nearly 2 months of it being let loose and getting out of control

How many millions of people have they on lock-down?

bb12 wrote: »

we're now aware of the virus so people will take extra measures for hygiene etc

Citation needed.

Zenify · 13-02-2020 01:53PM

bb12 wrote: »

I didn't say it wasn't a big deal...I'm just pointing out that with the disease in full flow in china after nearly 2 months of it being let loose and getting out of control, the corresponding statistics applied to ireland's population are not currently catastrophic...yes of course this is an evolving situation and numbers will change, but you have to look calmly at the figures before letting panic in...

plus in ireland we're not as crammed in as they are in china's cities. we're now aware of the virus so people will take extra measures for hygiene etc so the chances of it running riot like it did in china for the past 2 months are a lot slimmer here and in western europe in general...as evidenced by the lack of new cases being reported over the last few weeks.

I agree with all of that. So what would constitute "panic"? I agree we shouldn't panic but we do need to prepare and be on guard.

13-02-2020 01:54PM

bb12 wrote: »

I didn't say it wasn't a big deal...I'm just pointing out that with the disease in full flow in china after nearly 2 months of it being let loose and getting out of control, the corresponding statistics applied to ireland's population are not currently catastrophic...yes of course this is an evolving situation and numbers will change, but you have to look calmly at the figures before letting panic in...

plus in ireland we're not as crammed in as they are in china's cities. we're now aware of the virus so people will take extra measures for hygiene etc so the chances of it running riot like it did in china for the past 2 months are a lot slimmer here and in western europe in general...as evidenced by the lack of new cases being reported over the last few weeks.

One of the reasons I will be glad to get on my Namibia trip-it has an extremely low density population, whilst having fairly good sanitation with its Germanic element. At least I’m trying to comfort myself about these things. If the small group of us get through the flights without contamination we’ll be as safe as anywhere could be. Maybe I’ll stay there but it’s quite an expensive place

VinLieger · 13-02-2020 01:55PM

bb12 wrote: »

I didn't mention anything about deaths.

Those are the statistics and percentages currently being published by peer reviewed scientific papers from doctors in the midst of the crisis...that's the only source we can truly rely on at the moment and not hearsay...of course the figures will changes as more facts come to light but these sources are the only true ones you should rely on for information at the moment.

LOL, these are not peer reviewed scientific papers by any stretch of the imagination. They are the figures being published by the chinese government who we know for a fact now are not adhering to modern western or global medical reporting standards. For example they do not record all illnesses on a death cert like literally everyone else does which is why china with a population of 1.3 billion had less than 200 seasonal flu related deaths compared to the US who has 350 million population and 61k flu related deaths.

Trying to extrapolate anything out of the numbers china are giving out is absolutely useless.

cnocbui · 13-02-2020 01:58PM

silverharp wrote: »

the high critical is more worrying. I guess one on the many unknowns is how it affects a European population? , it may not be as severe here...here's hoping.

Asian males are more susceptible to the virus due to having more of the targeted receptors in their lungs.

bb12 · 13-02-2020 01:59PM

VinLieger wrote: »

LOL, these are not peer reviewed scientific papers by any stretch of the imagination. They are the figures being published by the chinese government who we know for a fact now are not adhering to modern western or global medical reporting standards. For example they do not record all illnesses on a death cert like literally everyone else does which is why china with a population of 1.3 billion had less than 200 seasonal flu related deaths compared to the US who has 350 million population and 61k flu related deaths.

Trying to extrapolate anything out of the numbers china are giving out is absolutely useless.

Those figures and statistics are not coming from the chinese government.

They are coming from the likes of the Lancet and Jama (The Journal of the American Medical Association)

cnocbui · 13-02-2020 02:00PM

Deleted User wrote: »

One of the reasons I will be glad to get on my Namibia trip-it has an extremely low density population, whilst having fairly good sanitation with its Germanic element. At least I’m trying to comfort myself about these things. If the small group of us get through the flights without contamination we’ll be as safe as anywhere could be. Maybe I’ll stay there but it’s quite an expensive place

I'd be more worried about having to use airports to get to the destination than the population density there.

Zenify · 13-02-2020 02:02PM

cnocbui wrote: »

Asian males are more susceptible to the virus due to having more of the targeted receptors in their lungs.

This is being mentioned a few places but is their proof they are more susceptible?

BanditLuke · 13-02-2020 02:03PM

Zenify wrote: »

All over the papers at the moment "EU warns outbreak poses risk to economy". What about the risk to life? What the hell is going on...?

If the EU take the same measures as China (and that's a big if) it will put the EU into an immediate recession. Millions upon millions of people won't turn up for work. Trains, buses, undergrounds, offices empty, the truck drivers that delivery your milk, eggs, meat etc...all at home riding out the worst of it.

Yes it's the worst case scenario but as other posters have mentioned the Chinese have gone to extraordinary lengths to halt this and still they can't stop it's progress, lengths i don't think western democracies will go to.

wakka12 · 13-02-2020 02:03PM

https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/f39igl/japan_has_reported_4_new_cases_of_coronavirus_in/

4 more cases in Japan, none have any immediately known links to infected persons.

13-02-2020 02:06PM

Zenify wrote: »

I agree with all of that. So what would constitute "panic"? I agree we shouldn't panic but we do need to prepare and be on guard.

I think a degree of “panic” is inevitable. Individuals respond to situations differently. Some might become dysfunctionally obsessive, whilst at the other end some will go to the grave in denial. Most will have a fair degree of anxiety, it’s how we survive as a species. Those of us who are single individuals without children etc can better afford to become philosophical and whilst taking all reasonable precautions accept the possibility we might become infected, very ill or even die.

I am just after returning from a bit of shopping, and there is most definitely the beginning of a sense of urgency about getting “stocked up”, and with the check-out people using gels. The guy I was talking to says the staff at SuperValu are taking more frequent toilet breaks to wash their hands.

VinLieger · 13-02-2020 02:06PM

bb12 wrote: »

Those figures and statistics are not coming from the chinese government.

They are coming from the likes of the Lancet and Jama (The Journal of the American Medical Association)

Your starting figure which is where you based your infection percentage off is coming directly from the chinese government also none of the lancet or jama papers have been peer reviewed yet and they are not being written by doctors on the ground in wuhan.

In fact the lancet and jama papers estimate the infection rate to be at least triple whats being reported.

Also your methodology of trying to extrapolate it out of china's entire population shows a complete misunderstanding of how and why hubei province is in such dire circumstances compared to everywhere else.

Hande hoche! · 13-02-2020 02:06PM

wakka12 wrote: »

https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/f39igl/japan_has_reported_4_new_cases_of_coronavirus_in/

4 more cases in Japan, none have any immediately known links to infected persons.

Surprised the Japanese don't have harsher restrictions on travel between China and themselves.

BanditLuke · 13-02-2020 02:07PM

Zenify wrote: »

My point was that people dying should be more important than somebody's share portfolio.

To normal people yes but not to the people who organise our society.

13-02-2020 02:09PM

wakka12 wrote: »

https://www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/f39igl/japan_has_reported_4_new_cases_of_coronavirus_in/

4 more cases in Japan, none have any immediately known links to infected persons.

And in 4 completely different areas. One of them is a taxi driver.

4068ac1elhodqr · 13-02-2020 02:11PM

cnocbui wrote: »

Asian males are more susceptible to the virus due to having more of the targeted receptors in their lungs.

Link to source? Please don't refer to that (signular) study with a sample group of 8 and N1 postive. Non-peer reviewed, and largely unverified, and not a widely supported 'theory'.

In reality older Chinese males can be heavy smokers, also Wuhan was the uncontrolled epicentre (from early to late Dec), hence China/Asia will suffer the most in initial months, as would be expected in such patterns.

cnocbui · 13-02-2020 02:14PM

Zenify wrote: »

This is being mentioned a few places but is their proof they are more susceptible?

The result indicates that the ACE2 virus receptor expression is concentrated in a small population of type II alveolar cells (AT2). Surprisingly, we found that this population of ACE2-expressing AT2 also highly expressed many other genes that positively regulating viral reproduction and transmission. A comparison between eight individual samples demonstrated that the Asian male one has an extremely large number of ACE2-expressing cells in the lung. This study provides a biological background for the epidemic investigation of the 2019-nCov infection disease, and could be informative for future anti-ACE2 therapeutic strategy development.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.26.919985v1.full

wakka12 · 13-02-2020 02:16PM

cnocbui wrote: »

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.26.919985v1.full

One asian male in the sample, not even an asian female sample for the tiniest bit of balance to the argument that it affects 'asian men' primarily, this is assumed simply because there was no asian woman in the study

Interesting but useless without further tests

new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

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