new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

BanditLuke · 10-02-2020 08:52PM

fritzelly wrote: »

BA cancel all flights to Beijing and Shanghai

Should have happened weeks ago.

odyssey06 · 10-02-2020 08:54PM

wakka12 wrote: »

Actually this may not necessarily be true, you can face jail time in China now if you do not present yourself to a hospital once you experience any flu like symptoms. So it is in fact likely the vast majority of ncov cases are being recorded in China. Anyone buying cold/flu meds in pharmacies must show their ID and their name is recorded.

Hmm playing devils advocate such an approach might encourage people to stay underground if they can...

hmmm · 10-02-2020 09:09PM

littlemac1980 wrote: »

The only good thing to come out of this is that it has clearly demonstrated that the WHO are a total shambles and completely ineffective against a real crisis. Hopefully that will be immediately shut-down following this and replaced by a more "fit for purpose" body that has the proper expertise and know-how to identify and respond to risks as they arise.

I think that's really unfair.

Firstly the WHO is underfunded. Significantly underfunded, it's not like they have thousands of doctors and epidemiologists on standby (which perhaps they should have).

Secondly, they need information and the CCP is not inclined to be forthcoming. Pissing off China would have done nothing, and they had to suck up a bit to get access.

Thirdly, the agreements before this called for travel restrictions to be avoided. I know all the armchair epidemiologists on the Internet have decided that travel restrictions are the simple answers to epidemics, but the scientific literature shows otherwise. We also know that panic and over-reaction causes economic devastation, which can be far more damaging to health than a virus. The WHO has to try and communicate this message while voters are clamouring for politicians to "do something".

Finally, the WHO yesterday have started trying to prepare the world for the reality that this will probably become relatively widespread. Governments are giving the impression that this will be contained, when the reality is it probably won't - but it will be managed and controlled. The world is on alert for outbreaks now.

saabsaab · 10-02-2020 09:09PM

odyssey06 wrote: »

Hmm playing devils advocate such an approach might encourage people to stay underground if they can...

Might be hard for many to do that with their system of government and control.

GooglePlus · 10-02-2020 09:24PM

BanditLuke wrote: »

Should have happened weeks ago.

It did..

fritzelly · 10-02-2020 09:25PM

Just throw this out there - not sure how reliable NTD are but it's a good listen

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-KFxCqV1fPQ

hmmm · 10-02-2020 09:31PM

fritzelly wrote: »

Just throw this out there - not sure how reliable NTD are but it's a good listen

Wikipedia says this is a Falun Gong run channel, so it's likely to be extremely unreliable. You have to be careful about posting propaganda.

fritzelly · 10-02-2020 09:32PM

hmmm wrote: »

Wikipedia says this is a Falun Gong run channel, so it's likely to be extremely unreliable. You have to be careful about posting propaganda.

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/ntd-tv-new-tang-dynasty/

Reuters have a complimentary piece on them too

Mic 1972 · 10-02-2020 09:36PM

How to correctly calculate the mortality rate during an outbreak

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#correct
https://academic.oup.com/aje/article/162/5/479/82647

Both articles agrees on two points

Wrong formula
CFR = deaths / cases

Correct formula
CFR = deaths / (deaths + recovered)

Also correct but requires an estimation of time before death
CFR = deaths at day.x / cases at day.x-{T}

Pablo Escobar · 10-02-2020 09:43PM

Mic 1972 wrote: »

How to correctly calculate the mortality rate during an outbreak

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#correct
https://academic.oup.com/aje/article/162/5/479/82647

Both articles agrees on two points

Wrong formula
CFR = deaths / cases

Correct formula
CFR = deaths / (deaths + recovered)

Also correct but requires an estimation of time before death
CFR = deaths at day.x / cases at day.x-{T}

It's very basic maths. Even your link says that your method assumes that the rate will be similar for those that remain in hospital. The fact that cases have exponentially increased recently means that it's incredibly likely to be an overestimate. It's basically proving that the rate lower than 20%, but not by how much as we don't have enough information.

Moomoomacshoe · 10-02-2020 09:48PM

saabsaab wrote: »

Best not to worry too much, just prepare, use precautions and avoid the public if you can. Hope our people responsible for public health protection are worried and taking any actions necessary to safeguard the island.

How do we prepare? Stupid question probably but masks for example, seem to be out of stock

4068ac1elhodqr · 10-02-2020 09:48PM

The regular chart looks a strange, perhaps they've changed the counting criteria:

There have been some recoveries, but hard to imagine it's more than a single daily new case amount, as it expands.
Also Japan is showing up as 161 now (likely not including the cruise ship folks, that may be classed as 'others'.
Once it gets into the 000's can perhaps assume you've lost control of it, for a good few months anyway.
Singapore, HK, Thai, Sing also all over 25 each, fast approaching the 50mark.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

fritzelly · 10-02-2020 09:51PM

The Japan figure includes 135 from the cruise ship

BanditLuke · 10-02-2020 09:55PM

fritzelly wrote: »

The Japan figure includes 135 from the cruise ship

Hopefully doesn't take hold in Tokyo but i wouldn't be confident

sdanseo · 10-02-2020 09:56PM

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

The regular chart looks a strange, perhaps they've changed the counting criteria:

There have been some recoveries, but hard to imagine it's more than a single daily new case amount, as it expands.
Also Japan is showing up as 161 now (likely not including the cruise ship folks, that may be classed as 'others'.
Once it gets into the 000's can perhaps assume you've lost control of it, for a good few months anyway.
Singapore, HK, Thai, Sing also all over 25 each, fast approaching the 50mark.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

That S-curve happens daily, as different Chinese provinces fake their figures at different times.

4068ac1elhodqr · 10-02-2020 09:56PM

fritzelly wrote: »

The Japan figure includes 135 from the cruise ship

Appears to be listed seperate on the map
Japan 161 (4 recovered) & 135 for 'others', could well be an error or mix up.

// other news agencies say it's included.
About 450 total global cases are outside of China.

Akrasia · 10-02-2020 10:01PM

Thunderfoot has a good video on why it’s right to be concerned about this Coronavurus and why reasonable precautions are legitimate
https://youtu.be/jEPi1KYanh4

fritzelly · 10-02-2020 10:03PM

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

Appears to be listed seperate on the map
Japan 161 (4 recovered) & 135 for 'others', could well be an error or mix up.

// other news agencies say it's included.
About 450 total global cases are outside of China.

Depends on where you're reading it - Japan do not include them in their official figures for the country, which makes sense

BanditLuke · 10-02-2020 10:03PM

Brits now saying they will force people into quarantine if necessary.

saabsaab · 10-02-2020 10:11PM

hmmm wrote: »

I think that's really unfair.

Firstly the WHO is underfunded. Significantly underfunded, it's not like they have thousands of doctors and epidemiologists on standby (which perhaps they should have).

Secondly, they need information and the CCP is not inclined to be forthcoming. Pissing off China would have done nothing, and they had to suck up a bit to get access.

Thirdly, the agreements before this called for travel restrictions to be avoided. I know all the armchair epidemiologists on the Internet have decided that travel restrictions are the simple answers to epidemics, but the scientific literature shows otherwise. We also know that panic and over-reaction causes economic devastation, which can be far more damaging to health than a virus. The WHO has to try and communicate this message while voters are clamouring for politicians to "do something".

Finally, the WHO yesterday have started trying to prepare the world for the reality that this will probably become relatively widespread. Governments are giving the impression that this will be contained, when the reality is it probably won't - but it will be managed and controlled. The world is on alert for outbreaks now.

You make some good points but the above is not true see quote.

'Travel restrictions were included in the WHO interim protocol: rapid operations to contain the initial emergence of pandemic influenza that was published in 2007 by the World Health Organization (WHO).1 However, as they would hamper global travel and trade, such restrictions are not recommended by WHO once the global spread of pandemic influenza is established.'

That is not the case this here.Makes sense to restrict travel.

marvin80 · 10-02-2020 10:19PM

BanditLuke wrote: »

Brits now saying they will force people into quarantine if necessary.

That makes sense.

littlemac1980 · 10-02-2020 10:22PM

I'm not sure that this was posted previously, if so I apologize, but I didn't see it:

This appears to be a confirmed positive case.

A staff member of a GP Office in Brighton Area. The GP office is now closed.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51447761

My brother lived in Brighton for a number of years. He commuted to London for work every day, a great deal of Brighton area residents do. The train service there to London is really good (I'm told - only used it myself a couple times when visiting from Ireland)

Extracts from Article:

A GP practice in Brighton has been temporarily closed after a staff member tested positive for coronavirus.

Patients at the city's County Oak medical centre have been advised to contact the NHS 111 phone service if they have concerns.

Two of the eight people diagnosed in the UK are understood to be GPs.

...

A school in Southampton has also closed over concerns about the virus.

St Mary's Independent School said the "precautionary" three-day closure came after "members of the school community" became ill, having recently travelled to China.

...

Two of the new cases are understood to be GPs - one of whom works at the County Oak medical centre.

A sign put up at the surgery said it had been closed "for extensive cleaning as a precautionary measure" and would be open as soon as possible, hopefully on Tuesday afternoon.

...

A British man has also been diagnosed with coronavirus in Majorca after coming into contact with a carrier in France.

...

Meanwhile, the Department of Health has introduced new measures in England that mean those in quarantine will not be free to leave their accommodation, and can be forcibly sent into isolation if they pose a threat.

saabsaab · 10-02-2020 10:23PM

marvin80 wrote: »

That makes sense.

Human nature being what it is you can't just rely on people to do the right thing. People can do stupid and harmful things and compulsion is necessary at times.

BanditLuke · 10-02-2020 10:26PM

marvin80 wrote: »

That makes sense.

Absolutely. It's good news.

odyssey06 · 10-02-2020 10:32PM

BanditLuke wrote: »

Brits now saying they will force people into quarantine if necessary.

I wonder if we have similar legislation and capability to do same if needed...

BanditLuke · 10-02-2020 10:34PM

Meanwhile this is NOT good news

https://youtu.be/6HCRmTHCUao

People still seem unwilling to accept how serious this is.

cloudatlas · 10-02-2020 10:37PM

That dick who tried to leave. Some of the people in there don’t seem to have a moral compass. I was wondering when they’d change the law though.

marvin80 · 10-02-2020 10:42PM

BanditLuke wrote: »

Meanwhile this is NOT good news

https://youtu.be/6HCRmTHCUao

People still seem unwilling to accept how serious this is.

Any chance of a synopsis of that video.

I see from the comments people are going full panic mode - worse than this thread!!

littlemac1980 · 10-02-2020 10:44PM

marvin80 wrote: »

Any chance of a synopsis of that video.

I see from the comments people are going full panic mode - worse than this thread!!

I've only watched the first couple minutes, but I believe the BAD NEWS is that China have now reported that the virus can spread by Aerosilization. Can't imagine the rest of the video could gets worse than that. That's official reporting from China (per John - who has been prudent with his sources) so most likely accurate. If true that is a huge blow to any effort to contain this.

BanditLuke · 10-02-2020 10:49PM

marvin80 wrote: »

Any chance of a synopsis of that video.

I see from the comments people are going full panic mode - worse than this thread!!

Watch it and make your own mind up.

Panic isn't ideal but understandable. Preparation is key but all i see here in Ireland is stupid memes on Whatsapp that think the virus is something to laugh about, it's not. This is deadly serious and i stand by my earlier comments that it has the potential to collapse the world economy.

new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

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