new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

Pablo Escobar · 10-02-2020 06:59PM

Mic 1972 wrote: »

20% is the rate of death out of total Death+Recovery, this is the best estimate you can get with the current avaialbe data, which is released daily and is shared by WHO

As for cases outside China, at the moment theree are 3 cases in italy. The most recent one is still mild, while the other 2 have been in intensive care for the last 2 weeks, they both had mild syntoms when they were initially detected

That is not how you get the death rate. Because the recovery time is longer than the time it takes to die, all you are doing is proving that the death rate is below 20%, but by how much is not clear as cases are still increasing.

BanditLuke · 10-02-2020 07:05PM

odyssey06 wrote: »

Yes. The severity of this is related to the number of people infected. If that 5% of the infected who get complications is more than the capacity of the hospitals to treat them.
This isn't a linear progression... the mortality rate could spike \ go off a cliff.
In Wuhan it looks like it has been overwhelmed.

Not that's it's as important as human severity but the economic effects will be devastating also.

4068ac1elhodqr · 10-02-2020 07:07PM

The BBC at 5pm just said this virus only has a 1%* death rate, and failed to mention that there was a near break-out up in the Wirral as some were trying to escape from their quarantine.
There is also a suspision that the super spreader is close associate of a locum GP (also infected) in Brighton (although unconfirmed anywhere as of yet).

Public information broadcasting, telling the public what they think is best for them, to know.

*The most popular percentile reported is around 2%, perhaps higher. Haven't heard the 1% being used for n19Cov.

s7ryf3925pivug · 10-02-2020 07:10PM

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Lots of buildings on fire there is seems, reports on twitter say they weld the doors shut and then set apartment blocks on fire to kill the effected within.

They only do that with the strain that causes reanimation as a cerebrumivore.

4068ac1elhodqr · 10-02-2020 07:11PM

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Lots of buildings on fire there is seems, reports on twitter say they weld the doors shut and then set apartment blocks on fire to kill the effected within.

'...reports on twitter'
are largely meaningless and best ignored.

Unless it comes from some slightly more credible press/news agency (even the more questionable ones) or at least non-anonymous source, is it even worth a passing glance.

BanditLuke · 10-02-2020 07:11PM

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Lots of buildings on fire there is seems, reports on twitter say they weld the doors shut and then set apartment blocks on fire to kill the effected within.

Yeah there is stuff online showing people jumping from buildings to escape. If it get's to Beijing it's game over for them.

BloodBath · 10-02-2020 07:15PM

Ah here. Is this the conspiracy theory forum? 20% death rate and people being welded into apartments and set on fire.

Wtf drugs are you taking? Maybe time to stop watching/reading whatever sensationalist fear mongering ****e you're watching at least.

ZX7R · 10-02-2020 07:19PM

BloodBath wrote: »

Ah here. Is this the conspiracy theory forum? 20% death rate and people being welded into apartments and set on fire.

Wtf drugs are you taking? Maybe time to stop watching/reading whatever sensationalist fear mongering ****e you're watching at least.

Call Chineses whisper's in the old days

sdanseo · 10-02-2020 07:19PM

drunkmonkey wrote: »

The Death Rate Is Up To 5%": The Harrowing Admission Of A Wuhan Doctor
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/death-rate-5-harrowing-admission-wuhan-doctor

Please, people, read articles and think for yourselves and quote in context so as to avoid posting alarmist disinformation.

The actual quote if you follow the link is:

In the third week, keeping some of these acute patients alive might require extraordinary intervention. For this group, the death rate seems to be 4 per cent to 5 per cent, Dr Peng said.

marvin80 · 10-02-2020 07:21PM

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Lots of buildings on fire there is seems, reports on twitter say they weld the doors shut and then set apartment blocks on fire to kill the effected within.

Please read this:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51429400

Call Me Jimmy · 10-02-2020 07:30PM

BloodBath wrote: »

Ah here. Is this the conspiracy theory forum? 20% death rate and people being welded into apartments and set on fire.

Wtf drugs are you taking? Maybe time to stop watching/reading whatever sensationalist fear mongering ****e you're watching at least.

He must be watching that twitter profile the chinese government are lookin at hey, they've gone into full-blown panic-mode too! Lockdown after lockdown, step away from the computer screen lads.

They're saying "we are at war" "it is the devil", "grave" "enemy of mankind"... what? chill out like us.

10-02-2020 07:33PM

Some pathetic shlt going on in this thread.

Fr_Dougal · 10-02-2020 07:36PM

Apparently China are reclassifying cases. Anyone who tests positive but is asymptomatic is not included in the official infected numbers.

WHO was not aware of it, but are looking into it.

https://youtu.be/a0Nu5MURFe4?t=2340

saabsaab · 10-02-2020 07:38PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Some pathetic shlt going on in this thread.

Can you be more specific?

sdanseo · 10-02-2020 07:41PM

Dr. John Campbell going over a peer-reviewed paper which followed 130+ patients in Wuhan.
His points in bold. My own thoughts are not.

TLDR:
Approx 17% of patients developing pneumonia and being admitted to hospital (this part is not in the report but John seems sure enough of the figures)
Approx 33% of those (5.5% total) requiring ICU
Approx 4.3% of the 17% in total fatal. [would give a fatality rate of 0.73%]

[Major catch here is that under half of those patients studied are discharged by the end of the review. So you could easily assume a little over double the mortality rate, perhaps 1.5 to 2%].

This leaves out all extenuating circumstances like:
Comorbidity (pre existing conditions)
Smokers
ACE2 predisposition if it actually exists
Higher population
Epicentre of the initial spread so likely no precautions taken when these people became infected

in other words, China is reacting in a dystopian way for 3 reasons.
1. It's China
2. If 2% of their population died, that would still be 28 million people.
3. It's China

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r0wgV-_XnvI

littlemac1980 · 10-02-2020 07:41PM

I've been following this thread now for some time and decided to make a post.

There has been a lot of discussion around the mortality rate of this virus.

I see the same points being raised over and over again.

As far as I see it the correct answer to how lethal this virus maybe is "We don't know", everything else is still speculation at this stage.

We know the WHO early estimates is 2%, but I haven't seen anywhere the WHO are alleging it is definitely 2% - they couldn't possibly do that as they are responding to a dynamic situation with very little information.

It could well be much higher or lower than that.

My understanding is that the techniques used to establish how lethal a disease/virus is are more suited to retrospective analysis. We know the precise mortality rate of the SARS virus and MERS virus because we have the benefit of hindsight and precise data from which to determine that. As far as I know we don't have that here (and I am happy to be corrected - on this and any points here - this is just my opinion based on what I have read) No authority has claimed to have enough data yet to carry out a proper calculation, there is no magic crystal ball.

The dashboard on Worldmeters - which has been providing a very useful daily update on the numbers (as per China's official releases, and other subsequent Countries of infection) - correctly (assuming China's figures to be accurate) reports the death rate from "Cases with Outcomes" as 20%, so 1 in 5.

Link to Worldmeters page here -> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

That's not to say that (20%) should be considered the actual mortality rate. As noted earlier - any attempt to do that now is pure speculation. There are a huge number of factors that are unknowns, that would drastically affect that calculation, e.g. people potentially dead in their homes & people who may have contracted the virus but never developed symptoms or considered it a mild flu (these are two speculative examples of considerations that are at odds with each other - and hence will tend to drive the mortality rate up or down when known, but right now we don't know).

As a further example - if China's capacity to test for the virus were to increase two-fold over night but their ICU/Hospital capacity stayed the same, then we might see a situation where numbers of cases increased dramatically but recorded numbers of fatalities and/or serious conditions would remain static. In those circumstances someone (organisation/government/media) might report the death rate is moving toward 1%, as it would still be calculated by deaths vs infected - but of course it would still be a meaningless number, as indeed the current number of 2% is.

We really still have no idea of the mortality rate of this virus.

We know that right now (presumably with some measure of medical resources available) about 1 in 5 people who progress through to the end of the infection die. But we don't know how many never present with symptoms (hopefully there are many many of those).

The real issue obviously is how contagious it is. That doesn't mean the mortality rate isn't a real issue, but speculating on it at this stage (from all those involved - media, commentators etc.) is helpful only up to the point where it becomes far less clear through the dissemination of that information that it is simply speculation - unfortunately it looks like that point was passed very quickly in this case and that isn't helping.

In the absence of any real knowledge of what the mortality rate is, and with there being a possibility it is relatively high - taken in combination with how contagious the virus has demonstrated to be (which is possible to estimate at this stage) the highest priority global response (in my opinion) is to do everything to limit its spread.

I hope this turns out to be "a load of hype", I am not sure it will, but I hope it does.

The only good thing to come out of this is that it has clearly demonstrated that the WHO are a total shambles and completely ineffective against a real crisis. Hopefully that will be immediately shut-down following this and replaced by a more "fit for purpose" body that has the proper expertise and know-how to identify and respond to risks as they arise.

fritzelly · 10-02-2020 07:45PM

littlemac1980 wrote: »

The only good thing to come out of this is that it has clearly demonstrated that the WHO are a total shambles and completely ineffective against a real crisis. Hopefully that will be immediately shut-down following this and replaced by a more "fit for purpose" body that has the proper expertise and know-how to identify and respond to risks as they arise.

You would think the WHO are a political party (suppose they are in a way - majorly funded by a country with a vested interest) with the way they dodge questions or give very vague answers

sdanseo · 10-02-2020 07:53PM

littlemac1980 wrote: »

The dashboard on Worldmeters - which has been providing a very useful daily update on the numbers (as per China's official releases, and other subsequent Countries of infection) - correctly (assuming China's figures to be accurate) reports the death rate from "Cases with Outcomes" as 20%, so 1 in 5.

Don't forget that a week ago the deaths vs recovered figure was on the wrong side of equal. Now it's 4:1.
It has been plummeting and will continue to do so.
Also, if you exclude Hubei, which accounts for all but 39 of the deaths, the number is more like 2.3%. There are 1724 recoveries and 39 deaths outside Hubei. Yes Allegedly, but at least we're comparing apples with apples. If one source is dodgy they likely both are.

In Zheijang there are 1092 cases, 242 recoveries and no deaths. Again allegedly.

(https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6)

More time - and as horribly morbid as it sounds, more cases and resolutions in normal functioning countries. - are needed to draw any conclusions

littlemac1980 · 10-02-2020 07:53PM

fritzelly wrote: »

You would think the WHO are a political party (suppose they are in a way - majorly funded by a country with a vested interest) with the way they dodge questions or give very vague answers

I don't blame them for that. Every major organisation is, but what I can criticise them for (and I am posting from recollection so may be off by a day or so), they had their first meeting about this at the end of January and then scheduled the next meeting for 5 days later The international body that coordinates global responses scheduled a follow up meeting for 5 days later when there were clear indicators that the situation in China was incredibly serious and that there was very little information. These guys should be meeting and reporting every 12 hours.

I appreciate that this is "Novel" (excuse the pun) situation but if the response time for the WHO to a potential threat is the order of 1 to 2 weeks (with bi-weekly) updates - which it very much appears to be, then any Country contributing to the WHO is throwing their money in the toliet because clearly these folks can put together pamphlets on the "Flu" or the "Seasonal cold" but that's where their capabilities end. I wouldn't put them in charge of B&B.

fritzelly · 10-02-2020 07:55PM

BA cancel all flights to Beijing and Shanghai

4068ac1elhodqr · 10-02-2020 08:01PM

fritzelly wrote: »

BA cancel all flights to Beijing and Shanghai

There were already cancelled but were due to resume 29Feb, are now rolled back even further until 1st April, which is a fair bit away.

The Chinese economy sure will take a bit of a kicking.
On the plus side, crusies and oil filler-ups are both getting cheaper.

volchitsa · 10-02-2020 08:05PM

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

Apparently China are reclassifying cases. Anyone who tests positive but is asymptomatic is not included in the official infected numbers.

WHO was not aware of it, but are looking into it.

https://youtu.be/a0Nu5MURFe4?t=2340

If so, this would mean it is far less serious an illness than previous figures suggested. More like flu, with millions infected and therefore a high number of deaths but actually a very low death rate.

ZX7R · 10-02-2020 08:05PM

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

There were already cancelled but were due to resume 29Feb, are now rolled back even further until 1st April, which is a fair bit away.

The Chinese economy sure will take a bit of a kicking.
On the plus side, crusies and oil filler-ups are both getting cheaper.

Did they not just cancel passenger flights

Hector Savage · 10-02-2020 08:09PM

I'm starting to really worry about this ...

saabsaab · 10-02-2020 08:33PM

Hector Savage wrote: »

I'm starting to really worry about this ...

Best not to worry too much, just prepare, use precautions and avoid the public if you can. Hope our people responsible for public health protection are worried and taking any actions necessary to safeguard the island.

Fr_Dougal · 10-02-2020 08:40PM

volchitsa wrote: »

If so, this would mean it is far less serious an illness than previous figures suggested. More like flu, with millions infected and therefore a high number of deaths but actually a very low death rate.

I don’t know where you’re getting that from.

15% of people with it develop pneumonia.

ceadaoin. · 10-02-2020 08:44PM

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

I don’t know where you’re getting that from.

15% of people with it develop pneumonia.

15% of people who present to a hospital with bad symptoms. So the figures are skewed because the people who have mild symptoms and dont need treatment are not included.

The fact is , it's too early to know what the accurate rates of severe cases and fatalities are.

odyssey06 · 10-02-2020 08:48PM

volchitsa wrote: »

If so, this would mean it is far less serious an illness than previous figures suggested. More like flu, with millions infected and therefore a high number of deaths but actually a very low death rate.

Flu already overwhelms our health system annually resulting in people on trolleys.
We have no vaccine for this virus.

Imagine a flu that causes twice as many people as influenza to need hospital treatment to get over the complications.
Now imagine it infects 1.5 times the number of ppl as flu.
None of the numbers above are crazy due to the amount of known unknowns with coronavirus.

There is a limit to the number of respiratory virus complications that countries medical services can cope with.

wakka12 · 10-02-2020 08:50PM

ceadaoin. wrote: »

15% of people who present to a hospital with bad symptoms. So the figures are skewed because the people who have mild symptoms and dont need treatment are not included.

The fact is , it's too early to know what the accurate rates of severe cases and fatalities are.

Actually this may not necessarily be true, you can face jail time in China now if you do not present yourself to a hospital once you experience any flu like symptoms. So it is in fact likely the vast majority of ncov cases are being recorded in China. Anyone buying cold/flu meds in pharmacies must show their ID and their name is recorded.

ZX7R · 10-02-2020 08:50PM

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

I don’t know where you’re getting that from.

15% of people with it develop pneumonia.

On average 1000 people a year died of pneumonia in 100'000 between 2009 -2018 in Ireland

new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

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