new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

Mic 1972 · 10-02-2020 04:08PM

Personally i only trust the actual data that is published, anyone can make up a % rate but i like to know how that was calculated before i take it seriously. One thing is panic, another thing is being accurate

wakka12 · 10-02-2020 04:09PM

Drumpot wrote: »

Wouldn’t that suggest that the death rate will end up below 2% over time?

Seems to me like we are going to Have to wait a few weeks or months before we start getting an accurate picture of true mortality rates on this illness.

Not really, unless there are a lot of unrecorded cases . Even if 100% of the remaining confirmed cases recovered the mortality rate would stay at 2.2%

wakka12 · 10-02-2020 04:11PM

Scrabbles38 wrote: »

If it is 20% like you say than we should be seeing this in cases outside of China by now... it my not be 2% but it’s not 20%.. it might even be lower

But then there are real life variables that affect that mortality rate. In chinese cities where there a lot of cases, the mortality rate is 4-5% due to hospitals being overwhelmed. Patients outside China are tiny in number, and receieve adequate care

SeaBreezes · 10-02-2020 04:11PM

wakka12 wrote: »

Its just not 20% though. If there were 40,000 cases of a 20% mortality rate virus going around and 8 cases in UK now, dont think youd be going to work today, or any of us, normal life worldwide would stop

Life DID stop in Many cities in China....

And mic is right, the actual time lag from infection to death or recovery is min 3 weeks. SARS when it was happening had a death rate of 2% it was only after, when actual numbers were gathered the 10% figure was realised.

That said there may be many many mild cases not presenting at hospital at all.
It's the cases that get to hospital (and are tested) have a 20% fatality rate.

So, watching the cases in Singapore, Germany and UK with interest as we will get more accurate idea of stats. And hoping it is just a flu for all concerned

Mic 1972 · 10-02-2020 04:12PM

Scrabbles38 wrote: »

If it is 20% like you say than we should be seeing this in cases outside of China by now... it my not be 2% but it’s not 20%.. it might even be lower

Ok, for the 2% to become even lower the assumption to make is for more people to get infected and no one out of the total currently infected are going to die. That's the most unrealistic scenario

For the 20% to become a more accurate stat we would need to analyses a specific sample of people who all got infected at the same time and have now either died or survived, This % may or may not be lower than 20%

ceadaoin. · 10-02-2020 04:16PM

Today a student from china is spending 2 weeks in my daughters class. The school have implemented a policy that anyone who has been in China within the past 2 weeks can not come to school. Am I being a dick if I double check that this is actually the case with this child? I mean, I know the chances that this one person from a population of a billion is infected but I cant help but worry.

Unearthly · 10-02-2020 04:18PM

tuxy wrote: »

The British couple on channel 4 had already said they plan to take the other cruises they have booked so they will be happy.

Fair play but to me it would be like John McClane being offered a free tour of a different Nakatomi plaza

saabsaab · 10-02-2020 04:19PM

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Today a student from china is spending 2 weeks in my daughters class. The school have implemented a policy that anyone who has been in China within the past 2 weeks can not come to school. Am I being a dick if I double check that this is actually the case with this child? I mean, I know the chances that this one person from a population of a billion is infected but I cant help but worry.

You could ask the school just to have peace of mind.

CinemaGuy45 · 10-02-2020 04:20PM

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Today a student from china is spending 2 weeks in my daughters class. The school have implemented a policy that anyone who has been in China within the past 2 weeks can not come to school. Am I being a dick if I double check that this is actually the case with this child? I mean, I know the chances that this one person from a population of a billion is infected but I cant help but worry.

It depends do you care more about your daughter and your family or a load of libtards calling you a racist?

Drumpot · 10-02-2020 04:24PM

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Today a student from china is spending 2 weeks in my daughters class. The school have implemented a policy that anyone who has been in China within the past 2 weeks can not come to school. Am I being a dick if I double check that this is actually the case with this child? I mean, I know the chances that this one person from a population of a billion is infected but I cant help but worry.

What? They’ve allowed a student from China to come and stay in the class? Is this a student that just flew over in the last few days or have they been hear for weeks? Unless there is a reasonable explanation it Seems very irresponsible considering our concerns regarding China’s initial response (protect mother land reputation) and most likely innacurate information on the amount infected. Also the fact it may take up to 2 weeks to show symptoms.

saabsaab · 10-02-2020 04:25PM

Unearthly wrote: »

Fair play but to me it would be like John McClane being offered a free tour of a different Nakatomi plaza

'You can walk out of here or be carried out.' Hans Gruber

Tacitus Kilgore · 10-02-2020 04:25PM

CinemaGuy45 wrote: »

It depends do you care more about your daughter and your family or a load of libtards calling you a racist?

I'd be more inclined to quarantine myself away from anyone in Ireland who uses the word libtard.

CinemaGuy45 · 10-02-2020 04:26PM

Drumpot wrote: »

What? They’ve allowed a student from China to come and stay in the class? Is this a student that just flew over in the last few days or have they been hear for weeks? Unless there is a reasonable explanation it Seems very irresponsible considering our concerns regarding China’s initial response (protect mother land reputation) and most likely innacurate information on the amount infected. Also the fact it may take up to 2 weeks to show symptoms.

flat,750x,075,f-pad,750x1000,f8f8f8.u2.jpg

:D:D:D

marvin80 · 10-02-2020 04:27PM

fritzelly wrote: »

If this turns out positive along with the doctors surgery the UK could be in serious trouble

https://www.dailyecho.co.uk/news/18224218.st-marys-independent-school-southampton-closed-evacuated-coronavirus-fears/?Ref=fbpg

Also, reported today that cases in the UK have DOUBLED from 4 to 8

tuxy · 10-02-2020 04:27PM

Unearthly wrote: »

Fair play but to me it would be like John McClane being offered a free tour of a different Nakatomi plaza

The Irish land quarantined in the Wirral is really chilled too, the only thing he is anxious about is that he may not be able to return to China as soon as he would like to.
While another person at the same quarantine centre has just made everything much more strict and uncomfortable by panicking and threatening to escape

Drumpot · 10-02-2020 04:28PM

CinemaGuy45 wrote: »

It depends do you care more about your daughter and your family or a load of libtards calling you a racist?

Agreed.

This is not “I don’t like Chinese people because I don’t like Chinese people”. This isn’t a racist issue, this is just common sense, a virus doesn’t care about borders. I don’t want to get the virus and I don’t want to see lazy attitudes more focused on not appearing to be racist as a reason why the virus spreads.

I hope there is some background to this students story that we just aren’t getting here.

Hector Savage · 10-02-2020 04:31PM

Shame on those here trying to say it's about racism - no it's not !
It's a stats / probability issue, if someone is just over from China I would have concerns - whether they are Chinese, French, Antarctic..... we have a Chinese guy working with us, and he was home for the Chinese new year, hes back a week now, but still has not been to the office, they told him to work from home for 2 weeks - and rightly so!!

Now if they had just said that to him based on him being Chinese and he hadn't been home for CNY ... then fair enough, you could have a point about racism.

4068ac1elhodqr · 10-02-2020 04:32PM

Kaya Prehistoric Landlord wrote: »

Can an ultraviolet disinfection lamp kill the new coronavirus?
UV lamps should not be used to sterilize hands or other areas of skin as UV radiation can cause skin irritation.
[I guess UV does kill it though or at least is not known not to or they would have phrased this differently.]

The (5-10secs or so) use of UV-C may actually be very useful to kill surface viruses. Very unlikely to feel any skin irritation in that time, unless a vampire.
Many hand driers in bathrooms include a UV lamp for this reason. Some air filter sytems might use it (along with ozone) and small steralisation kits use UV bulbs.

Other cheap hacks for non-toxic/irritant cleaning methods include plain table salt & lemons for uneven surfaces such as chopping boards, and vinegar mixed with hotwater for floors.[/QUOTE]

CinemaGuy45 · 10-02-2020 04:33PM

Drumpot wrote: »

Agreed.

This is not “I don’t like Chinese people because I don’t like Chinese people”. This isn’t a racist issue, this is just common sense, a virus doesn’t care about borders. I don’t want to get the virus and I don’t want to see lazy attitudes more focused on not appearing to be racist as a reason why the virus spreads.

I hope there is some background to this students story that we just aren’t getting here.

The thing started in China and anybody travelling from China would be at higher risk.
Also being stuck on a long flight if even one person is infected the way air is recycled on a plane good luck.

Look at that cruse ship and how quickly the numbers of infected are going up.

Steve F · 10-02-2020 04:35PM

saabsaab wrote: »

Unless it starts to die back soon i.e. in the next 2 months this is starting to look like the predicted 'big one' like 1918/19 flue pandemic. No good news on this really yet.

Well.....every so often something comes along to thin out the population. I'm not saying this is it but at over 7 billion the earth needs a breather maybe?

CinemaGuy45 · 10-02-2020 04:35PM

Hector Savage wrote: »

Shame on those here trying to say it's about racism - no it's not !
It's a stats / probability issue, if someone is just over from China I would have concerns - whether they are Chinese, French, Antarctic..... we have a Chinese guy working with us, and he was home for the Chinese new year, hes back a week now, but still has not been to the office, they told him to work from home for 2 weeks - and rightly so!!

Now if they had just said that to him based on him being Chinese and he hadn't been home for CNY ... then fair enough, you could have a point about racism.

Nobody here is trying to say that I am pointing out the way things play out in this crazy society we live in.:)

ceadaoin. · 10-02-2020 04:38PM

Drumpot wrote: »

Agreed.

This is not “I don’t like Chinese people because I don’t like Chinese people”. This isn’t a racist issue, this is just common sense, a virus doesn’t care about borders. I don’t want to get the virus and I don’t want to see lazy attitudes more focused on not appearing to be racist as a reason why the virus spreads.

I hope there is some background to this students story that we just aren’t getting here.

Yeah it's not about race, they may not even be chinese but they live in China. The only reason I know is because my daughter told me, there has been no communication from the school at all. We are in the US where travel restrictions from China have been in place for a couple of weeks now anyway. So I'm hoping that it means that this family have arrived several weeks ago.

timmyntc · 10-02-2020 04:38PM

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

The (5-10secs or so) use of UV-C may actually be very useful to kill surface viruses. Very unlikely to feel any skin irritation in that time, unless a vampire.
Many hand driers in bathrooms include a UV lamp for this reason. Some air filter sytems might use it (along with ozone) and small steralisation kits use UV bulbs.

Other cheap hacks for non-toxic/irritant cleaning methods include plain table salt & lemons for uneven surfaces such as chopping boards, and vinegar mixed with hotwater for floors.

[/QUOTE]

The thing started in China and anybody travelling from China would be at higher risk.
Also being stuck on a long flight if even one person is infected the way air is recycled on a plane good luck.

Luck at that cruse ship and how quickly the numbers of infected are going up.

Begs the question, why don't airplanes filter the recycled air with UV bulbs? Surely sterilising the air shared by all in the plane is a good idea in general for prevention of illness (nCov aside)

tuxy · 10-02-2020 04:40PM

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

The (5-10secs or so) use of UV-C may actually be very useful to kill surface viruses. Very unlikely to feel any skin irritation in that time, unless a vampire.
Many hand driers in bathrooms include a UV lamp for this reason. Some air filter sytems might use it (along with ozone) and small steralisation kits use UV bulbs.

Is the ozone generated a health issue?
I'd also be reluctant to look at them close up with the naked eye.

Steve F · 10-02-2020 04:45PM

"China's ambassador to Britain described the newly identified virus as "the enemy of mankind" in an interview with the BBC yesterday, but added it "is controllable, is preventable, is curable".

I would add to that...if people heed the warnings yeah?

khalessi · 10-02-2020 04:49PM

For handwashing use the Ayliffe Technique,its what they teach med staff, does front and back of hands, thumbs, between fingers, repeat a couple of times.

CinemaGuy45 · 10-02-2020 04:50PM

Steve F wrote: »

Well.....every so often something comes along to thin out the population. I'm not saying this is it but at over 7 billion the earth needs a breather maybe?

Be that change you want to see.:D

As in you first buddy.

4068ac1elhodqr · 10-02-2020 04:53PM

tuxy wrote: »

Begs the question, why don't airplanes filter the recycled air with UV bulbs? Surely sterilising the air shared by all in the plane is a good idea in general for prevention of illness (nCov aside)

Would have to ask an airplane air systems engineer. Likely they use a series of passive filters ranging in type including carbon filters. Guess expense would be a factor also, when blowing so much dynamic and variable pressurised air for extended periods of time it would need some sort of chamber to hold for upto 10secs and treat.

tuxy wrote: »

Is the ozone generated a health issue?
I'd also be reluctant to look at them close up with the naked eye.

Don't frequent them, but are widely used in chippers to kill flies, and keep surfaces clean. Anyone eating fast food would have more to worry about than a 10w UV lamp up on the roof.

Ozone is good for steralisation, but not in confined spaces. A UV lamp system would be useful for doorway/entry areas where there is natural air movement anyway. Again less of a health concern, than those large trucks spraying out tonnes of gas across Chinese streets.

tuxy · 10-02-2020 04:53PM

timmyntc wrote: »

Begs the question, why don't airplanes filter the recycled air with UV bulbs? Surely sterilising the air shared by all in the plane is a good idea in general for prevention of illness (nCov aside)

Wouldn't that be bulky and heavy.
They have to cool the air from the extreme temperate it enters at from the engine to make it safe to breath. Using massive amounts of UV light to cool all that air would heat the air needing a much lager air con system on top of the large UV system.

Steve F · 10-02-2020 04:58PM

CinemaGuy45 wrote: »

Be that change you want to see.:D

As in you first buddy.

But...but...but I'm too young to die...I'm "only" 56

new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

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