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new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

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Comments

  • #4382
    tuxy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 14,981 ✭✭✭✭tuxy


    Mic 1972 wrote: »
    at the moment 80% of people have recovered and 20% died

    Which virus is this referring to?
    It sounds like MERS but the fatality rate was a bit higher.


  • #4383
    Drumpot
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,306 ✭✭✭✭Drumpot


    Mic 1972 wrote: »
    There is a real time update available online that reports on total people infected, deaths and recovered people
    at the moment 80% of people have recovered and 20% died

    20%? That sounds innacurate or at least a statistic that’s missing a lot of information.

    Does anybody have a link to a website with general information like statistics on infected and deaths outside of China? I think it’s fair to say that the statistics from China are very likely not accurate.


  • #4384
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    Drumpot wrote: »
    20%? That sounds innacurate or at least a statistic that’s missing a lot of information.

    Does anybody have a link to a website with general information like statistics on infected and deaths outside of China? I think it’s fair to say that the statistics from China are very likely not accurate.


    https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/
    Tracks Chinese and international
    The sample size outside China is small with the majority of the cases being on a boat in Japan and confirmed within the last 48 hours


  • #4385
    s7ryf3925pivug
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,999 ✭✭✭s7ryf3925pivug


    Can an ultraviolet disinfection lamp kill the new coronavirus?
    UV lamps should not be used to sterilize hands or other areas of skin as UV radiation can cause skin irritation.
    [I guess UV does kill it though or at least is not known not to or they would have phrased this differently.]

    Is it safe to receive a letter or a package from China?
    Yes, it is safe. People receiving packages from China are not at risk of contracting the new coronavirus. From previous analysis, we know coronaviruses do not survive long on objects, such as letters or packages.

    Can pets at home spread the new coronavirus (2019-nCoV)?
    At present, there is no evidence that companion animals/pets such as dogs or cats can be infected with the new coronavirus

    https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/advice-for-public/myth-busters


  • #4386
    Mic 1972
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,213 ✭✭✭Mic 1972


    wakka12 wrote: »
    What? Both are wrong. Nowhere near 20% have died and nowhere near 80% have recovered.
    The vast majority of cases are still 'ongoing', neither recovered nor likely to die

    https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/
    In china, 40.1k cases, 3280 have recovered = 8%
    908 have died = 2.2%
    6450 experiencing severe complications =16%


    death rate = total death / (total death + recover)
    you can't include to the calculation the "ongoing" people as we dont know if they are going to die or recover
    So, the correct death rate so far is 20%


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  • #4387
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    Mic 1972 wrote: »
    death rate = total death / (total death + recover)
    you can't include to the calculation the "ongoing" people as we dont know if they are going to die or recover
    So, the correct death rate so far is 20%

    But it is never actually calculated that way because death and recovery take different amounts of time. Of course the best wya to assess it is to take a large sample of early infections and calculate the outcome of all of them. I'm sure that is how the figure of around 2% has been arrived at


  • #4388
    Mic 1972
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,213 ✭✭✭Mic 1972


    Drumpot wrote: »
    20%? That sounds innacurate or at least a statistic that’s missing a lot of information.

    Does anybody have a link to a website with general information like statistics on infected and deaths outside of China? I think it’s fair to say that the statistics from China are very likely not accurate.

    That's far from inaccurate. The data is pulled from the daily update on Death, Recoveries and total infected. The stat was pulled today


  • #4389
    Drumpot
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,306 ✭✭✭✭Drumpot


    wakka12 wrote: »
    https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/
    Tracks Chinese and international
    The sample size outside China is small with the majority of the cases being on a boat in Japan and confirmed within the last 48 hours

    Only 1 death in 390 cases outside of China? Now wonder it’s not getting the kind of attention or concern a 2% virus would get. If or when those death rates increase, then we might see some real response. I guess it might be possibly if disease mutates or if death rates increase due to high numbers of infected and services being unable to look after them. That would explain why so few early infected have died (so far). Suppose time will tell.


  • #4390
    CinemaGuy45
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,181 ✭✭✭CinemaGuy45


    Mic 1972 wrote: »
    death rate = total death / (total death + recover)
    you can't include to the calculation the "ongoing" people as we dont know if they are going to die or recover
    So, the correct death rate so far is 20%

    Be quiet will you nobody wants your common sense.

    All we want is everybody is doomed or sure it will be all grand.:D:P


    On a serious note 20% death rate sounds bloody nasty and the UK has 8 or 9 confirmed cases now it is on our doorstep.:(


  • #4391
    Drumpot
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,306 ✭✭✭✭Drumpot


    Mic 1972 wrote: »
    That's far from inaccurate. The data is pulled from the daily update on Death, Recoveries and total infected. The stat was pulled today

    But it’s clearly not accurate, it doesn’t have all available information and as I said, China is an unreliable source. If that virus had a 20% kill rate the whole world would be shut down.


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  • #4392
    Stark
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,203 ✭✭✭✭Stark


    Takes longer to declare someone "recovered" than "dead" so the recovery rate is rising more slowly than the death rate. If you look at deaths vs confirmed cases, it's around 2%.


  • #4393
    Drumpot
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,306 ✭✭✭✭Drumpot


    Stark wrote: »
    Takes longer to declare someone "recovered" than "dead" so the recovery rate is rising more slowly than the death rate. If you look at deaths vs confirmed cases, it's around 2%.

    Wouldn’t that suggest that the death rate will end up below 2% over time?

    Seems to me like we are going to Have to wait a few weeks or months before we start getting an accurate picture of true mortality rates on this illness.


  • #4394
    CinemaGuy45
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,181 ✭✭✭CinemaGuy45


    Stark wrote: »
    Takes longer to declare someone "recovered" than "dead" so the recovery rate is rising more slowly than the death rate. If you look at deaths vs confirmed cases, it's around 2%.



    To be honest I think it is way above 2% the Chinese Government is not known for its openness and honesty.

    Nor is ours for that matter.


  • #4395
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    CinemaGuy45 wrote: »
    Be quiet will you nobody wants your common sense.

    All we want is everybody is doomed or sure it will be all grand.:D:P


    On a serious note 20% death rate sounds bloody nasty and the UK has 8 or 9 confirmed cases now it is on our doorstep.:(

    Its just not 20% though. If there were 40,000 cases of a 20% mortality rate virus going around and 8 cases in UK now, dont think youd be going to work today, or any of us, normal life worldwide would stop


  • #4396
    tuxy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 14,981 ✭✭✭✭tuxy


    Look at how many people have a mild version compared to how many are critical.
    Unless this is unlike any other virus that we have ever encountered the majority of the people will be on their way to recovery.

    The people that die often do so within 10 days of being diagnosed, the people that will recover will take 3 - 4 weeks.
    The recovery numbers are lagging way behind the death numbers.

    This virus is barely even 2 months old yet.


  • #4397
    Mic 1972
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,213 ✭✭✭Mic 1972


    wakka12 wrote: »
    But it is never actually calculated that way because death and recovery take different amounts of time. Of course the best wya to assess it is to take a large sample of early infections and calculate the outcome of all of them. I'm sure that is how the figure of around 2% has been arrived at

    you are correct about analisying a large sample, that is the correct way to calculate the death rate. The sample at the moment is still small. There are about 4500 people who either died or recovered and the break down is 1 in 5

    the 2% however was calculated as below, and that's a useless stat unfortunately
    Total death / Total infected = 2%


  • #4398
    givyjoe
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,286 ✭✭✭givyjoe


    tuxy wrote: »
    Look at how many people have a mild version compared to how many are critical.
    Unless this is unlike any other virus that we have ever encountered the majority of the people will be on their way to recovery.

    The people that die often do so within 10 days of being diagnosed, the people that will recover will take 3 - 4 weeks.
    The recovery numbers are lagging way behind the death numbers.

    This virus is note even 1 month old yet.

    It's over 2 months since the outbreak started. The wide scale tracking is lagging behind though.


  • #4399
    tuxy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 14,981 ✭✭✭✭tuxy


    givyjoe wrote: »
    It's over 2 months since the outbreak started. The wide scale tracking is lagging behind though.

    Yes edited, that was a mistake but I think the point still holds.


  • #4400
    wakka12
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    tuxy wrote: »
    Look at how many people have a mild version compared to how many are critical.
    Unless this is unlike any other virus that we have ever encountered the majority of the people will be on their way to recovery.

    The people that die often do so within 10 days of being diagnosed, the people that will recover will take 3 - 4 weeks.
    The recovery numbers are lagging way behind the death numbers.

    This virus is barely even 2 months old yet.

    It was never in question whether 'we will all survive', it is how does worldwide health infrastructure potentially deal with a large percentage of it's population being hospitalised simultaneously in a pandemic scenario. The answer is not good, as you see in Wuhan. The scenario is unlike anything in encountered for a long time, hence the reactions worldwide from governements. There are way more recovered than seriously ill but up to 15% of patients experiencing severely compromised health is extremely significant


  • #4401
    Drumpot
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,306 ✭✭✭✭Drumpot


    Mic 1972 wrote: »
    you are correct about analisying a large sample, that is the correct way to calculate the death rate. The sample at the moment is still small. There are about 4500 people who either died or recovered and the break down is 1 in 5

    the 2% however was calculated as below, and that's a useless stat unfortunately
    Total death / Total infected = 2%

    You need to also factor in information , how accurate is China’s information?

    Then there is also a question of how much does governmental response , environment (weather, smog etc) and cultural (families/community’s closer) differences affect transmission. And of course medical access, how has this effected survival rates in China?

    I really think every information discussed and quoted should have massive caveats. As I said, I think when we see how this affects people in comparable countries , only then can we be confident on these numbers. Mass numbers being infected is possibly a bigger issue then catching the virus itself.


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  • #4402
    Mic 1972
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,213 ✭✭✭Mic 1972


    this is the link where I get the data, it's updated a couple of times per day
    (UK new cases are still not showing)



    https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6


  • #4403
    Mic 1972
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,213 ✭✭✭Mic 1972


    Drumpot wrote: »
    You need to also factor in information , how accurate is China’s information?

    Then there is also a question of how much does governmental response , environment (weather, smog etc) and cultural (families/community’s closer) differences affect transmission. And of course medical access, how has this effected survival rates in China?

    I really think every information discussed and quoted should have massive caveats. As I said, I think when we see how this affects people in comparable countries , only then can we be confident on these numbers.


    As of now we have data to know that the death rate is nowhere near 2%


  • #4404
    Unearthly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,147 ✭✭✭Unearthly


    I see the people on the cruise ship will be provided a full refund + a credit to take another cruise ship in the next 12 months :pac:


  • #4405
    CinemaGuy45
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,181 ✭✭✭CinemaGuy45


    OK 20% sounds extreme however 2% seems to be downplaying things.

    I don't know the real death rate but those videos coming out of China look like they come straight out of a zombie movie.

    I have seen loads of people with this collapse the flu does not do this.

    Time will tell.


  • #4406
    marvin80
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,817 ✭✭✭marvin80


    CinemaGuy45 wrote: »

    I don't know the real death rate but those videos coming out of China look like they come straight out of a zombie movie.

    Please read this:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51429400


  • #4407
    tuxy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 14,981 ✭✭✭✭tuxy


    Unearthly wrote: »
    I see the people on the cruise ship will be provided a full refund + a credit to take another cruise ship in the next 12 months :pac:

    The British couple on channel 4 had already said they plan to take the other cruises they have booked so they will be happy.


  • #4408
    Drumpot
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,306 ✭✭✭✭Drumpot


    Mic 1972 wrote: »
    As of now we have data to know that the death rate is nowhere near 2%
    CinemaGuy45 wrote: »
    OK 20% sounds extreme however 2% seems to be downplaying things.

    I don't know the real death rate but those videos coming out of China look like they come straight out of a zombie movie.

    I have seen loads of people with this collapse the flu does not do this.

    Time will tell.

    The only accurate statement is that we really don’t know for sure.

    I think the pictures of panic and society breaking down is exactly what I would expect. It’s not clear how much is being communicated to it’s population.

    I rememeber when sept 11 happened and at the time everybody was panicking. Was it a new world war? Was it China? Wtf was going on.... The lack of information was leading to all sorts of crazy stuff.

    We aren’t programmed to deal with these sort of incidents. Most of us go along thinking we’ve got everything sorted. Feel sick, goto doctor or hospital. Need money, work and get loans. Need food, goto shops. Nature is an after thought if even an thought at all. How we abuse our environment is a testament to that.,

    When something unplanned happens (like a virus) I would suggest panic is one of our greatest threats. People turning on each other and not trusting one another. What’s probably upsetting about these Chinese pictures and stories is that unlike war torn countries, this could very well happen to us if we don’t manage it correctly. That’s what frightening, more so then the virus itself (at this early stage)


  • #4409
    Scrabbles38
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29 ✭Scrabbles38


    Mic 1972 wrote: »
    you are correct about analisying a large sample, that is the correct way to calculate the death rate. The sample at the moment is still small. There are about 4500 people who either died or recovered and the break down is 1 in 5

    the 2% however was calculated as below, and that's a useless stat unfortunately
    Total death / Total infected = 2%
    If it is 20% like you say than we should be seeing this in cases outside of China by now... it my not be 2% but it’s not 20%.. it might even be lower


  • #4410
    fritzelly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,191 ✭✭✭✭fritzelly


    If this turns out positive along with the doctors surgery the UK could be in serious trouble

    https://www.dailyecho.co.uk/news/18224218.st-marys-independent-school-southampton-closed-evacuated-coronavirus-fears/?Ref=fbpg


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  • #4411
    CinemaGuy45
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,181 ✭✭✭CinemaGuy45


    marvin80 wrote: »
    Please read this:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51429400

    I did read it and I do agree there is a lot of bull going around, however,.


    We cannot trust China to be honest.

    Even if death rates are about 2% this thing looks nasty more than a flu.


This discussion has been closed.
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