new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

tuxy · 08-02-2020 09:55PM

saabsaab wrote: »

The count?

Ballot papers.

MadYaker · 08-02-2020 09:55PM

What do people expect the HSE to say exactly?

s7ryf3925pivug · 08-02-2020 09:56PM

saabsaab wrote: »

I hope you are right but another site says 65M dead before this ends!

Both ideas are compatible.
It is slowing down, but if you project its current rate of spread then it would infect everyone on the planet within six months. (Simple linear projection ignoring any mitigating factors and is therefore not to be considered accurate; just illustrative of how rampant it is right now.)

odyssey06 · 08-02-2020 09:57PM

tom1ie wrote: »

All due respect but that’s just your opinion.
We need concrete, globally agreed stats on how infectious this disease is, the mortality rate and what demographics are most at risk.
Otherwise we are just guessing.
Tbh I’m erring on the side of caution and getting extra supplies in so I don’t have to que up with the public if panic buying does set in like it has in Singapore.
Might be something to consider.

I think you should err on the side of caution, especially if you or close family are in the groups so far identified as being most at risk.

This is boards.ie this is where you come to for best guesses when there isn't globally agreed information on something... we're all just reading between the lines here based on the dubious though large amounts of data from China & the small amount of reliable data from other locations.

s7ryf3925pivug · 08-02-2020 09:57PM

tuxy wrote: »

Ballot papers.

ah **** it. I had just been thinking of a crowded indoor environment but the papers themselves would be a vector for infection.

cnocbui · 08-02-2020 09:57PM

MadYaker wrote: »

Maybe in pitch darkness and perfect conditions a virus could maybe survive for that long (in that german mans lab no doubt). UV radiation (sunlight) breaks down the viruses genetic material and kills them pretty quick. Most transmissions are through direct physical contant or someone coughing / sneezing on you and you breath that in etc. You'd be unlucky to get it off a door handle or whatever but it is possible.

You must be in Australia, mate; where I am, the UV index is 0, there's no sunlight to speak of and its grey, cold and damp.

saabsaab · 08-02-2020 09:57PM

tuxy wrote: »

Ballot papers.

Of course! I'm a bit out of touch..

MadYaker · 08-02-2020 09:58PM

Kaya Prehistoric Landlord wrote: »

Both ideas are compatible.
It is slowing down, but if you project its current rate of spread then it would infect everyone on the planet within six months. (Simple linear projection ignoring any mitigating factors and is therefore not to be considered accurate; just illustrative of how rampant it is right now.)

The virus won't survive or infect in significant numbers in most countries for 6 months. Rising temps going into summer are not good for viruses. These outbreaks always happen in winter as the colder conditions are more favourable then it peeters out as summer approaches.

odyssey06 · 08-02-2020 09:59PM

Flu kills approximately 500,000 people globally a year.

Flu vaccines are on average 45% effective - often the strain in the vaccine is not the strain that hits.
People who have recovered from B strains of flu have some immunity against other B strains so if the vaccine misses a mutated A strain it means a more severe flu season for older people.
We have no vaccine against coronavirus.

Even if this is "just as bad as the flu", and I think it looks like it's more severe in terms of secondary pneumonia, think about what that means.
Our hospital system is overloaded annually during flu season.
Imagine we have to do deal with flu and an annual coronavirus season for which we have no vaccines.
Yikes.

MadYaker · 08-02-2020 10:00PM

cnocbui wrote: »

You must be in Australia, mate; where I am, the UV index is 0, there's no sunlight to speak of and its grey, cold and damp.

Well it is currently night so thats understandable I guess. Assuming you're in Ireland.

tuxy · 08-02-2020 10:00PM

saabsaab wrote: »

The count?

Also maybe this guy would be handy for counting how many bats started this

cnocbui · 08-02-2020 10:01PM

MadYaker wrote: »

What do people expect the HSE to say exactly?

We currently have x cases of concern at the moment, they are all in isolation units receiving appropriate medical care. We are currently awaiting test results, which we should have in y days/hours and we let you know the results of these as soon as we have them.

tuxy · 08-02-2020 10:01PM

Kaya Prehistoric Landlord wrote: »

ah **** it. I had just been thinking of a crowded indoor environment but the papers themselves would be a vector for infection.

Yes and did everyone wash their hands after using the pencil in the polling station today?

lolanacho · 08-02-2020 10:03PM

MadYaker wrote: »

That would fit the definition of a limited spread. 5 people out of how ever many thousands were crammed into that ski resort isn't very many.

The guy was staying in a chalet that was divided into two apartments, he was sharing his with the 5 people that gave positive, one a 9 year old child.
The other six people from the other apartment are also in hospital under observation, so the rate is not as low as you might think.
The government is trying to trace any other person that might have been in close contact with him but have already left the ski resort.

The British family live in that resort, the children attend school in a nearby location, all the parents have been informed the schools will be closed at least for a week until they test all the kids.

odyssey06 · 08-02-2020 10:03PM

This article calls out one of the "Known Unknowns" about the virus, it's basic reproduction number (R0), or how many people will catch a bug from a single infected person.

https://www.livescience.com/how-far-will-coronavirus-spread.html

Also known as the "basic reproduction number," R0 predicts the number of people who can catch a given bug from a single infected person. For example, diseases such as polio, smallpox and rubella have R0 values in the 5 to 7 range; such values mean that, on average, one sick person would be likely to infect five to seven people who were not resistant to the virus, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The measles virus ranks among the most highly transmissible diseases on the planet, with an estimated R0 value of 12 to 18.

As Chinese health officials confirmed more and more cases of 2019-nCoV, scientists around the world rushed to estimate R0 for the new virus. Last week, several reports placed the figure between 2 and 3, while the World Health Organization reported that the virus's R0 falls slightly lower, at between 1.4 and 2.5. Other estimates have surpassed this range, hovering above 3.5. But what do all these numbers really mean?

For context, know that diseases with an R0 below 1 typically disappear from a population before becoming widespread, as infected people recover faster than the bug can be transmitted to new hosts.

cnocbui · 08-02-2020 10:04PM

MadYaker wrote: »

Well it is currently night so thats understandable I guess. Assuming you're in Ireland.

I am. It's been grey cold and damp for most of the daylight hours. Ireland doesn't get noticeable UV at this time of year, at least not by my standards.

igCorcaigh · 08-02-2020 10:05PM

saabsaab wrote: »

I guess they mean if say you were in the same room as an infected person for a minute you may have only received a small number of viruses but say you were in close contact for a few hours with an infected person you would have received a very large number of viruses and your system would find it hard to deal with it.

It also has to do with viral load.
A person who has a lot of virus can be a superspreader. The quantity of virus one is exposed to impacts on the outcome.

At least that's my understanding, open to correction. I'm not an expert.

MadYaker · 08-02-2020 10:05PM

cnocbui wrote: »

We currently have x cases of concern at the moment, they are all in isolation units receiving appropriate medical care. We are currently awaiting test results, which we should have in y days/hours and we let you know the results of these as soon as we have them.

Thats fair enough I suppose, though I don't see how it would make people feel better. There may be patient confidentiality issues with discussing specific cases though I might be wrong there I'm not a doctor. Technically since the syptoms are the same as any other flu virus or the common cold until the tests come back we probably have thousands of cases here that could be considered "cases of concern". Unless they are people just got back from China.

ardinn · 08-02-2020 10:06PM

MadYaker wrote: »

In China people who think they have the virus are are panicking, presenting at hospital and overloading the infrastructure. Most of these people have some other sickness like a common cold or some other virus as the symptoms are similar.

That was the case - now people who have symptoms are being dragged (literally) out of their homes and put into what can only be called concentration camps with no medical facilities.

Wuhan was told to "round up" anyone with symptoms, people are now terrified of the "healthcare" there and are accepting they are better off dying at home.

igCorcaigh · 08-02-2020 10:06PM

odyssey06 wrote: »

Flu kills approximately 500,000 people globally a year.

Flu vaccines are on average 45% effective - often the strain in the vaccine is not the strain that hits.
People who have recovered from B strains of flu have some immunity against other B strains so if the vaccine misses a mutated A strain it means a more severe flu season for older people.
We have no vaccine against coronavirus.

Even if this is "just as bad as the flu", and I think it looks like it's more severe in terms of secondary pneumonia, think about what that means.
Our hospital system is overloaded annually during flu season.
Imagine we have to do deal with flu and an annual coronavirus season for which we have no vaccines.
Yikes.

18% of cases are severe... That means hospital. This is going to clog up resources big time.

saabsaab · 08-02-2020 10:08PM

MadYaker wrote: »

What do people expect the HSE to say exactly?

Not so much what they say but a public announcement on TV in mandarin and English telling people that have returned recently form China to call a number and not show up in hospitals or GPs.

Not solely HSE but
Also get a list for those on flights where there are potential cases(18 Now) from transport agencies and follow up on those potentially affected.

The best approach would be to quarantine returnees or ban flights to begin with.

s7ryf3925pivug · 08-02-2020 10:08PM

Kaya Prehistoric Landlord wrote: »

ah **** it. I had just been thinking of a crowded indoor environment but the papers themselves would be a vector for infection.

Apparently she is doing the tallies which means she stands behind the people counting the actual papers and makes a mark every five votes. (Riveting way to spend her day apparently.) The actual counting is done by council employees.

MadYaker · 08-02-2020 10:09PM

lolanacho wrote: »

The guy was staying in a chalet that was divided into two apartments, he was sharing his with the 5 people that gave positive, one a 9 year old child.
The other six people from the other apartment are also in hospital under observation, so the rate is not as low as you might think.
The government is trying to trace any other person that might have been in close contact with him but have already left the ski resort.

The British family live in that resort, the children attend school in a nearby location, all the parents have been informed the schools will be closed at least for a week until they test all the kids.

But that is a low transmission rate, he infected the people he lived with and nobody else. He was on a skiing holiday, out on the slopes and in bars, restraunts shops etc for days while carrying the virus yet he only infected the people he was living with. Nice to see the French taking proper precautions though.

auspicious · 08-02-2020 10:11PM

lolanacho wrote: »

The guy was staying in a chalet that was divided into two apartments, he was sharing his with the 5 people that gave positive, one a 9 year old child.
The other six people from the other apartment are also in hospital under observation, so the rate is not as low as you might think.
The government is trying to trace any other person that might have been in close contact with him but have already left the ski resort.

The British family live in that resort, the children attend school in a nearby location, all the parents have been informed the schools will be closed at least for a week until they test all the kids.

If it properly breaches our shores I hope the appropriate agencies learn from these examples and apply direct and snappy protocols.

cnocbui · 08-02-2020 10:12PM

MadYaker wrote: »

The virus won't survive or infect in significant numbers in most countries for 6 months. Rising temps going into summer are not good for viruses. These outbreaks always happen in winter as the colder conditions are more favourable then it peeters out as summer approaches.

I wasn't going to post this, as the SARS figures timeleine is overly compressed due to Chinese secrecy, but saying it's going to take 6 months, given what is happening, is pretty weird.

s7ryf3925pivug · 08-02-2020 10:12PM

tuxy wrote: »

Yes and did everyone wash their hands after using the pencil in the polling station today?

:pac:

odyssey06 · 08-02-2020 10:14PM

igCorcaigh wrote: »

It also has to do with viral load.
A person who has a lot of virus can be a superspreader. The quantity of virus one is exposed to impacts on the outcome.
At least that's my understanding, open to correction. I'm not an expert.

Yep, to further your point:
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/coronavirus-singapore-doing-it-right-with-measures-says-expert-who-led-whos-fight

How severe the illness in a person is depends both on the person's own immune system, as well as how large the viral load is when the person is infected. If someone who is very sick sneezes or coughs in the person's face, the viral load could be high.
(according to Professor David Heymann, who headed the WHO response to SARS)

odyssey06 · 08-02-2020 10:17PM

MadYaker wrote: »

But that is a low transmission rate, he infected the people he lived with and nobody else. He was on a skiing holiday, out on the slopes and in bars, restraunts shops etc for days while carrying the virus yet he only infected the people he was living with. Nice to see the French taking proper precautions though.

If it's as infectious as the flu it would mean 10% of the population will get it. Flu has a transmission rate of 1.3 i.e. each infected person infects a further 1.3 people. So what seems like a low transmision rate, as long as it is greater than 1 can ultimatlely lead to large number of infections.
At the moment we don't know if coronavirus transmisson rate is 1.3, 2.5 or 3.5 but it seems to be greater than 1.

igCorcaigh · 08-02-2020 10:18PM

odyssey06 wrote: »

Yep, to further your point:
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/coronavirus-singapore-doing-it-right-with-measures-says-expert-who-led-whos-fight

How severe the illness in a person is depends both on the person's own immune system, as well as how large the viral load is when the person is infected. If someone who is very sick sneezes or coughs in the person's face, the viral load could be high.
(according to Professor David Heymann, who headed the WHO response to SARS)

Thanks for that.

I took a module in epidemiology in college many years ago, but not working in that area now.

It's a very interesting area of study, so trying to refresh my knowledge now. Cheers.

MadYaker · 08-02-2020 10:18PM

Yeah that's why doctors and nurses are most at risk, they get riddled with it treating victims

many have already died in China.

new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

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