Storm Ciara - Strong Winds & Potential Snow **TECHNICAL DISCUSSION**

Now that I'm back up to speed on developments, would say first of all, no obvious signs of unforeseen intensification, but it is worth mentioning perhaps that unlike many storms following roughly similar track, this one was always forecast to have a much wider band of strong winds that were most intense at latitudes between 50 and 55 N, only in some very late stage near landfall was there any hint of a strong wrap-around near the low centre. So there won't likely be a scenario where the strongest winds are offshore, Ireland is likely to see whatever is strongest of Ciara.

Noted some sustained 70 kt winds east of Newfoundland on oil platforms (similar exposure to Kinsale energy platform) as 968 mb low tracked past to their north last night and this morning. That may indicate at least a similar outcome for south coast of Ireland (70 kt at the energy platform usually means 60-65 at the coastal heads). No useful ship reports (all routed away from strong wind zone).

As to this question of snow becoming disruptive later Monday into Tuesday, yes I am taking the "high ground mainly" approach but not ruling out some mixing at all elevations, don't want anyone to interpret the comments by me or about me as "it won't snow below 200m" because it probably will at some point, just the accumulating and not rapidly melting snow would be on higher terrain.

Cork may be an exception too, if the snow were to stick at elevations closer to 100 metres then it could be in west Munster getting the best of the upper dynamics with this set-up. Will perhaps address that in more detail with the Sunday morning forecast. I think we've all seen a few cases where this kind of long-fetch cold just modifies that little bit at the end of the buildup period and cuts off the potential, maybe that's in the back of my mind (lots of room in there see username).