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Storm Ciara - Strong Winds & Potential Snow **TECHNICAL DISCUSSION**

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,537 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Squall in sligo now lashing


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,262 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Ciara hasn't deepened in the 6 hours up to 12Z, still 969 hPa just east of New Foundland.

    ukmo_nat_fax_2020020812_000.png

    ukmo_nat_fax_2020020806_000.png

    By 06Z tomorrow it will have deepened to only 950 hPa, so not rapidly intensifying, though it did start off as a low way down near Florida during the week.

    ukmo_nat_fax_2020020806_024.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,262 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    ASCAT winds measured at 11:50Z today show 40 knots off the west coast. Belmullet was reporting 35 knots at the time, with a 54-knot gust in the following hour.

    The ECM 100-metre winds for the same area at the same time were around 26 m/s (50 knots), which tallies well with the Belmullet and ASCAT figures.

    502221.png

    ecm0125_nat_100uv_mslp_2020020800_012.jpg

    The same ECM chart for tomorrow morning shows 100-metre winds around 6 m/s (12 kt) stronger, meaning about 8 knots higher at the surface. Mace Head could touch mean winds near 50 knots, gusts high 60s.

    ecm0125_nat_100uv_mslp_2020020800_030.jpg


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,104 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    At 4pm, Malin Head gusting 106 km/h


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 531 ✭✭✭Goldfinch8


    Has been a very wet afternoon in Mayo. Sheets of driving rain here now.
    Pools of water already showing in some fields locally.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,651 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    very windy here in Meath, not much rain so far today, a few spits of drizzle every few minutes.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,262 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    The Met Éireann aviation chart for 18Z shows a 80-knot spot wind at 5000 ft at 52.5N 15W, temperature +6 C.
    At 55N 15W (280 km further north) wind is 55 kt, temperature 0 C.


  • Posts: 4,896 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Wind has dropped here in west Mayo. V heavy rain though in the last while.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,109 ✭✭✭TomOnBoard


    Very quiet in South Roscommon. ..


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,335 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    The weather in north Dublin right now reminds me of every single day I have ever spent in Galway.

    Occasional strong winds touching gale force, spits and spots of rain, still 9.2c at the moment and we are only heading up from there overnight. The more persistent rain about to arrive.


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  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 11,094 Mod ✭✭✭✭squonk


    The ME radar is showing an intense area of rain across Northern Ireland just now. It’s unusual to see such an organised and widespread area of heavy rain.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,031 ✭✭✭✭Discodog


    squonk wrote: »
    The ME radar is showing an intense area of rain across Northern Ireland just now. It’s unusual to see such an organised and widespread area of heavy rain.

    And the circular pattern around Shannon - hope the radar isn't playing up.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,262 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Discodog wrote: »
    And the circular pattern around Shannon - hope the radar isn't playing up.

    That's called Bright Banding and is totally normal. It's caused by the reflection off melting snow at a certain level, and the rings show this effect at different scan angles. The radar is working fine.


  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 11,094 Mod ✭✭✭✭squonk


    Discodog wrote: »
    And the circular pattern around Shannon - hope the radar isn't playing up.

    Yeah I hope so. I thought the northern Irish reading looked a bit suspect. They’ll be flooded up there if the radar is correct.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,516 ✭✭✭mayo.mick


    Wind has dropped here in west Mayo. V heavy rain though in the last while.

    25mm or so since midday here in east Mayo

    EQRKoPrXkAERIFH?format=png&name=small


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 71 ✭✭Laurali


    Icon has upgraded mayo for the main event in the early hours of tomorrow where gfs seems to have down graded.
    Does icon notoriously over estimate?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,528 ✭✭✭Hooter23


    Ciara hasn't deepened in the 6 hours up to 12Z, still 969 hPa just east of New Foundland.
    By 06Z tomorrow it will have deepened to only 950 hPa, so not rapidly intensifying, though it did start off as a low way down near Florida during the week.

    Since its not deepening as rapidly as forecast maybe the track might change also and the storm may come closer to us


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,774 ✭✭✭typhoony


    Laurali wrote: »
    Icon has upgraded mayo for the main event in the early hours of tomorrow where gfs seems to have down graded.
    Does icon notoriously over estimate?

    Yes gfs had a slight downgrade on winds for tomorrow morning, a mid range orange but nothing more unless this system bombs overnight which looks unlikely


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,262 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Lovely hi-res MODIS image of the frigid air bubbling up into cumulus and then showers as it flows southeastwards off the sea ice in Baffin Bay, the source of Monday/Tuesday's cold air. Dewpoints in the area are below -25 C, so how much will the 3000+ km sea track modify this airmass by then? That's the question.

    49505976678_63d9b4fde8_h.jpg


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,262 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Hooter23 wrote: »
    Since its not deepening as rapidly as forecast maybe the track might change also and the storm may come closer to us

    It is deepening as forecast. It's just not "bombing" (as DublinLive would say). Forecasts have been remarkably accurate all week (up to now anyway).


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 377 ✭✭YanSno


    The speed it's traveling i would expect less modification. Compared to last week westerly


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,375 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Lovely hi-res MODIS image of the frigid air bubbling up into cumulus and then showers as it flows southeastwards off the sea ice in Baffin Bay, the source of Monday/Tuesday's cold air. Dewpoints in the area are below -25 C, so how much will the 2000+ km sea track modify this airmass by then? That's the question.

    49505976678_63d9b4fde8_h.jpg

    From a quick look at the hi res models, only Euro 04 is seeing the snow a lot of us think possible....


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,743 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    Big drops of rain in cork city of this evening. Not too windy yet, the occasional gust but not that strong either. Charts seem to be accurate enough so far.

    Edit: gusts increased as I posted this


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,262 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    YanSno wrote: »
    The speed it's traveling i would expect less modification. Compared to last week westerly

    Yes, that's the only reason why I'm more optimistic about this particular northwesterly.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,495 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Knock Shannon Cork and Dublin airport forecasting max gusts of 60 knots for a period tomorrow morning ,easing off a fair bit into the afternoon.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,127 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    Lovely hi-res MODIS image of the frigid air bubbling up into cumulus and then showers as it flows southeastwards off the sea ice in Baffin Bay, the source of Monday/Tuesday's cold air. Dewpoints in the area are below -25 C, so how much will the 3000+ km sea track modify this airmass by then? That's the question.

    49505976678_63d9b4fde8_h.jpg

    That image is class.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,616 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    From a quick look at the hi res models, only Euro 04 is seeing the snow a lot of us think possible....

    Are they out to Monday night yet though?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,537 ✭✭✭pauldry


    19.9mm of rain in Sligo since yesterday

    12.1mm in past 2 hours alone but now 2mm an hour rate again about. Floods everywhere though


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,031 ✭✭✭✭Discodog


    That's called Bright Banding and is totally normal. It's caused by the reflection off melting snow at a certain level, and the rings show this effect at different scan angles. The radar is working fine.

    Thanks. I have often wondered as I have seen it before. I think the new radar image makes it more obvious.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,537 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Storm Desmond in Dec 2015 is still my record rainfall event with 98mm over its course. 20mm from Ciara a long way off yet


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