new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

wakka12 · 07-02-2020 11:29PM

fritzelly wrote: »

5 or 6 more than yesterdays total

BNO news says , at 10pm, 30 mins ago
'22:05: 2,841 new cases and 80 new deaths in Hubei province, China. '
https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/
Deaths were only like 625 or something last night, now 717 worldwide

fritzelly · 07-02-2020 11:30PM

wakka12 wrote: »

BNO news says , at 10pm, 30 mins ago
'22:05: 2,841 new cases and 80 new deaths in Hubei province, China. '
https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/

See my comment above

wakka12 · 07-02-2020 11:31PM

fritzelly wrote: »

See my comment above

Oh sorry thought you meant only 5 or 6 in total today!

wellwhynot · 07-02-2020 11:45PM

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

University Hospital Limerick investigating suspected case of coronavirus

https://www.limerickleader.ie/news/home/515496/breaking-university-hospital-limerick-investigating-suspected-case-of-coronavirus.html

The individual with the suspected case is understood to have visited China in recent weeks or was in contact with another individual with the virus, and is presenting with flu-like symptoms.

The Limerick Leader has contacted UL Hospitals Group regarding the matter, and was told to re-direct the query to the HSE, who in turn informed the Limerick Leader that the Department of Health was dealing with the issue.

A Department of Health spokesperson said: "There have been 15 suspected cases of Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) tested in the National Virus Reference Laboratory (NVRL) as of Monday 3 February. To date, there are no confirmed cases of Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in Ireland.

"No information will be provided about individual activations of these plans or about individual cases of novel Coronavirus (2019-ncCoV) other than confirmed cases.

"The Health Protection Surveillance Centre website is updated daily at 13.00 with the latest information about the novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV). Visit HPSC.ie."

It is 100% going to hit here eventually. We are a very small island with no direct flights which should have made us very easily immune with some government influence.

But no...our leaders are too busy canvassing for their jobs/pension to even comment on the issue despite having a doctor as a Taoiseach. Ffs. So self serving and short sighted.

Fr_Dougal · 07-02-2020 11:48PM

wellwhynot wrote: »

It is 100% going to hit here eventually. We are a very small island with no direct flights which should have make us very easily immune with some government influence.

But no...our leaders are too busy canvassing for their jobs/pension to even comment on the issue despite having a doctor as a Taoiseach. Ffs. So self serving and short sighted.

There’s no vaccine, and the Chinese knew about if for a month before they told anyone so...

Widdershins · 07-02-2020 11:51PM

Ireland's most overcrowded emergency department is in UHL. It looks almost like a field hospital at times. I think I'd rather take my chances at home, no disrespect to the medical professionals.

MadYaker · 08-02-2020 12:04AM

This virus hasn't demonstrated much ability to spread outside of the initial outbreak zone so im not retreating to the underground bunker just yet. I Feel for anyone inside the quarantine zone in wuhan though

they've a long few months ahead of them. Us in europe haven't much to worry about. If it was going to spread rapidly from china that would've happened already.

wellwhynot · 08-02-2020 12:15AM

MadYaker wrote: »

This virus hasn't demonstrated much ability to spread outside of the initial outbreak zone so im not retreating to the underground bunker just yet. I Feel for anyone inside the quarantine zone in wuhan though they've a long few months ahead of them. Us in europe haven't much to worry about. If it was going to spread rapidly from china that would've happened already.

I hope you are right but I fear you are not. We won’t know the real picture until 2/3 weeks.

Panrich · 08-02-2020 12:24AM

silverharp wrote: »

the Chinese doctor is an odd one, he had everything going for him, age , the best health treatment one would think and presumably healthy so his odds should have been 1 in several hundred.

Certainly when you consider how long it took for him to die as well. Most people seem to recover or die within a week or two at most. He was diagnosed around jan 10 (?) and died this week. That's over 20 days.

sdanseo · 08-02-2020 12:26AM

Even within China now, Hubei's mortality rate is an extreme outlier.

Beijing. 1 death, 33 recovered. 33:1 ratio.
Guangdong. 1 death, 88 recovered. 88:1 ratio.
Zheijiang. 0 deaths. 133 recovered. There is no ratio.

And still only 2 deaths outside Mainland China, and one outside China entirely.

If the figures are not reliable, as is likely - they are all we have to go by and have at least been consistent. And that consistency shows that something went terribly wrong in Hubei. My guess is an initially more virulent disease followed by sharp tapering, combined with locally health facilities being utterly overwhelmed by genuine illness but also by panic and fear.

I can go by numbers but also by gut instinct. This time last Sunday i was genuinely worried. Now, for the western world not so much.

That is not to belittle this outbreak.. it is unprecedented in the modern world. It shows we need to dramatically increase research into viral disease, to the level into which we research cancer.
But it is not the "big one".

Yet.

ChikiChiki · 08-02-2020 12:29AM

Out of all the hospitals Limerick would be the absolute worst right now.

kenmc · 08-02-2020 12:40AM

MadYaker wrote: »

This virus hasn't demonstrated much ability to spread outside of the initial outbreak zone so im not retreating to the underground bunker just yet. .

Tell that to the folk on the cruise ship, who went from around 10 to 40 overnight

sdanseo · 08-02-2020 12:46AM

kenmc wrote: »

Tell that to the folk on the cruise ship, who went from around 10 to 40 overnight

It's a bloody cruise ship.

I was on an Irish Ferries crossing to Cherbourg a few years ago in a Force 10 Gale. Wasn't sick myself but you could smell the vomit pungently through the AC. They are notorious for infection spreading.

That said. I've a cruise booked in June :eek:

gozunda · 08-02-2020 12:51AM

wakka12 wrote: »

Huge increase in serious and critical cases, another jump of 1000 in the space of a day. Over 20% of patients in Hubei are now in a (20%)critical or (80%)serious state with a 2.8% mortality rate

The fatality rate for the Spanish flue is estimated to have been around 2%. (Estimated low figure)

It is believed that outbreak was responsible for the deaths of between 20 million to 50 million people worldwie

Blanco100 · 08-02-2020 12:55AM

sdanseo wrote: »

Even within China now, Hubei's mortality rate is an extreme outlier.

Beijing. 1 death, 33 recovered. 33:1 ratio.
Guangdong. 1 death, 88 recovered. 88:1 ratio.
Zheijiang. 0 deaths. 133 recovered. There is no ratio.

And still only 2 deaths outside Mainland China, and one outside China entirely.

If the figures are not reliable, as is likely - they are all we have to go by and have at least been consistent. And that consistency shows that something went terribly wrong in Hubei. My guess is an initially more virulent disease followed by sharp tapering, combined with locally health facilities being utterly overwhelmed by genuine illness but also by panic and fear.

I can go by numbers but also by gut instinct. This time last Sunday i was genuinely worried. Now, for the western world not so much.

That is not to belittle this outbreak.. it is unprecedented in the modern world. It shows we need to dramatically increase research into viral disease, to the level into which we research cancer.
But it is not the "big one".

Yet.

What do you mean by "the big one"?

sdanseo · 08-02-2020 12:57AM

gozunda wrote: »

The fatality rate for the Spanish flue is estimated to have been around 2%.

It is believed that that outbreak was responsible for the deaths of between 20 million to 50 million people.

Somewhere between 2.5% and 20% is where science puts it. Margin of error around 800%.
Even the US National Institute of Health's own study contradicts itself dramatically in the abstract. Says >2.5% then quotes minimum deaths at a figure that equates to 10%.
There was just not enough records kept - or able to kept- to tell for sure.

Mind you, that's before antibiotics (for secondary bacterial pneumonia), antivirals or mechanical ventilation.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3291398/

An estimated one third of the world's population (or ≈500 million persons) were infected and had clinically apparent illnesses (1,2) during the 1918–1919 influenza pandemic. The disease was exceptionally severe. Case-fatality rates were >2.5%, compared to <0.1% in other influenza pandemics (3,4). Total deaths were estimated at ≈50 million (5–7) and were arguably as high as 100 million (7).

Blanco100 wrote: »

What do you mean by "the big one"?

A "contagion" style virus that wipes out a very significant proportion of the population.

gozunda · 08-02-2020 12:57AM

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

University Hospital Limerick investigating suspected case of coronavirus

https://www.limerickleader.ie/news/home/515496/breaking-university-hospital-limerick-investigating-suspected-case-of-coronavirus.html...

One of the Tabloids is reporting that there are three suspect cases being investigated at UHL

"Three patients await results of tests for Coronavirus after presenting at Limerick hospital"

A source said two female patients were admitted to the hospital this morning with flu-like symptoms after they had together travelled to Ireland from China in recent days...

A third male patient, who is understood to have traveled to Ireland from China recently, also presented at the hospital today with similar symptoms.

All three are awaiting the results of tests, which take at least eight hours to process ...

The patients were being accommodated in special isolation rooms at the hospital, as a precaution, and in line with usual infection control protocols.

News report not confirmed bt the HSE or Department of health...

s7ryf3925pivug · 08-02-2020 12:57AM

Blanco100 wrote: »

What do you mean by "the big one"?

apocalypse probably

gozunda · 08-02-2020 01:02AM

sdanseo wrote: »

Somewhere between 2.5% and 20% is where science puts it. Margin of error around 800%.

Mind you, that's before antibiotics (for secondary bacterial pneumonia), antivirals or mechanical ventilation.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3291398/ ...

Yeah 2 % detailed = low figure

Yes as detailed previously antibiotics are no use for Coronavirus.

sdanseo · 08-02-2020 01:04AM

People need to stop "presenting at hospital" with a suspected case of borderline pandemic virus.

Self isolate. Stay at home and call your doctor, then let them advise and assist.

If people can't follow that basic advice, perhaps Darwinism needs to run its course.

s7ryf3925pivug · 08-02-2020 01:04AM

gozunda wrote: »

One of the Tabloids is reporting that there are three suspect cases being investigated at UHL

"Three patients await results of tests for Coronavirus after presenting at Limerick hospital"

News report not confirmed bt the HSE or Department of health...

Article is 100% credible. Journalist is friends with my wife.

sdanseo · 08-02-2020 01:07AM

Kaya Prehistoric Landlord wrote: »

Article is 100% credible. Journalist is friends with my wife.

Jesus wept

Kermit.de.frog · 08-02-2020 01:09AM

China strong!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UctriMuXYS0

s7ryf3925pivug · 08-02-2020 01:10AM

quoted text is not from the article linked that I can see.
Previous post sounded funny but my point is that I'm familiar with what the guy does and doesn't say and it has always been true to my knowledge.

gozunda · 08-02-2020 01:29AM

According to the HSE website each GPs practice in the country will recieve 4 packs of disposable PPE equipment- including gown, gloves and facemask

Accompanying HSE Video on the personal protective equipment provided

https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/guidance/infectionpreventionandcontrolguidance/

From:

https://www2.hse.ie/conditions/coronavirus.html#gp-hcp

fritzelly · 08-02-2020 01:34AM

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1225939107530100739

gozunda · 08-02-2020 01:48AM

News reports from a variety of media sources report that Royal Caribbean and Norwegian Cruise Lines are banning passengers (and staff) from their cruise ships who hold passports from China, Hong Kong, or Macao “until further notice” because of the coronavirus outbreak,

https://www.theverge.com/2020/2/7/21128468/ships-coronavirus-ban-royal-caribbean-norwegian-cruise-outbreak-passports

Kermit.de.frog · 08-02-2020 03:00AM

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1225949028724113408

tuxy · 08-02-2020 04:02AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The CIA say it's the most advanced bio weapons facility in China.

bodhrandude · 08-02-2020 04:50AM

Chinese sources claiming that the virus came from this scaly creature called the Pangolin, fluid was extracted from the creature that apparently 99% matched 2019-cov.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/07/wuhan-facing-wartime-conditions-as-china-tries-to-contain-coronavirus

new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

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