new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

ardinn · 07-02-2020 05:30PM

timmyntc wrote: »

Not that I believe any of the numbers coming out of China
but even with a mortality rate of 2% this is still a big deal. It has an R0 of >2, no vaccines yet, and as the virus mutates quite quickly you don't develop an immunity after recovering.

If this spreads worldwide we will keep having serious breakouts of this all over the world for years to come - if we don't contain it now while the numbers are manageable (outside of China anyways), it'll soon be too widespread to contain.

Like think of the common cold - its global, its always spreading, you always catch it again and again. Now imagine each time you caught it there was a 2% chance of death.

The Ro is 2.8 - So 3, doubling time 6 days.

Dr John discussed the cold theory yesterday - Your body wont hold the anti bodies for more than 4 months if you do recover the 1st time.

ceadaoin. · 07-02-2020 05:37PM

ardinn wrote: »

If you take the other estimates - 600,000 inf - 25,000 dead - It's a 4% Fatality rate.

There are probably thousands of people dead in their homes - especially in wuhan. The DR could actually be massive! But we just dont know!

And there are thousands more at home with mild symptoms, not dying. I think the death rate will turn out to be much lower than 4% once we get an idea of the true number of infections. If we ever do.

Pretty sure this will turn into another seasonal illness that does the rounds every year.

SeaBreezes · 07-02-2020 05:38PM

ardinn wrote: »

If you take the other estimates - 600,000 inf - 25,000 dead - It's a 4% Fatality rate.

There are probably thousands of people dead in their homes - especially in wuhan. The DR could actually be massive! But we just dont know!

Plus I imagine severe cases will be fatal if no hospital space..

ardinn · 07-02-2020 05:39PM

ceadaoin. wrote: »

And there are thousands more at home with mild symptoms, not dying. I think the death rate will turn out to be much lower than 4% once we get an idea of the true number of infections. If we ever do.

Pretty sure this will turn into another seasonal illness that does the rounds every year.

I absolutely hope you are right

circadian · 07-02-2020 05:39PM

I see people mentioning mutations, has this actually been verified?

Rvsmmnps · 07-02-2020 05:44PM

Hong Kong airlines axe 400 jobs.

Yurt2 · 07-02-2020 06:02PM

Rvsmmnps wrote: »

Hong Kong airlines axe 400 jobs.

There's some outrageously cheap deals on quality hotels in Hong Kong at the moment. A lot of places will have to fold if this persists.

babybuilder · 07-02-2020 06:05PM

What are the chances of this precipitating a world wide recession/depression? Also, Is the fact that the virus has been shown to survive 28 days on metal surfaces got anything to do with An Post's decision to cancel all mail from China? I'm aware of the obvious reason being airlines stopping flights but just wondering.

Call Me Jimmy · 07-02-2020 06:10PM

Yurt! wrote: »

There's some outrageously cheap deals on quality hotels in Hong Kong at the moment. A lot of places will have to fold if this persists.

Yup, 1/6th of the world has shut down with many predictable near-catastrophic effects and yet it seems there are only small pockets of conversation about it.

cloudatlas · 07-02-2020 06:12PM

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/07/ive-been-walking-stairs-for-exercise-life-under-coronavirus-quarantine

A couple of things annoyed me about the quarantine in the uk at the Wirral. The guy who wrote this sounds like a bit of an idiot but the people ordering take away and especially the guy hoarding the booze sound like ungrateful dicks taking the piss out of the kindness shown them.

Also they should be confined to their rooms if someone was sick they would have transferred it to handles and counters, tables by now. Makes little sense.

Call Me Jimmy · 07-02-2020 06:12PM

babybuilder wrote: »

What are the chances of this precipitating a world wide recession/depression? Also, Is the fact that the virus has been shown to survive 28 days on metal surfaces got anything to do with An Post's decision to cancel all mail from China? I'm aware of the obvious reason being airlines stopping flights but just wondering.

To be honest I've been saying the reset has to come soon before this happened, I was even thinking 2020. But it feels like there's infinite ****ery going on with central banks, they are the gods forever protecting us from ever experiencing pain again...

If this doesn't do it, nothing will.

bodhrandude · 07-02-2020 06:17PM

Just wondering if there has been any unconfirmed reports at the UHG in Galway as the town is going to be packed for tomorrow for the opening 2020 celebrations, thinking of staying away from it and staying indoors.

Yurt2 · 07-02-2020 06:21PM

babybuilder wrote: »

What are the chances of this precipitating a world wide recession/depression? Also, Is the fact that the virus has been shown to survive 28 days on metal surfaces got anything to do with An Post's decision to cancel all mail from China? I'm aware of the obvious reason being airlines stopping flights but just wondering.

I think Xi is on borrowed time as leader of China. There were already strong rumours of the powerful Jiang Zemin faction getting into place to move against him. Xi made a lot of enemies in the group that enjoyed Jiang's patronage before and after he came to power.

Pretty open dissent on Chinese social media the last few days.

josip · 07-02-2020 06:28PM

Yurt! wrote: »

Pretty open dissent on Chinese social media the last few days.

That's just swapping one dictator for another.
Way too acquiescent for their own good (literally this time).

Loafing Oaf · 07-02-2020 06:34PM

bodhrandude wrote: »

Just wondering if there has been any unconfirmed reports at the UHG in Galway as the town is going to be packed for tomorrow for the opening 2020 celebrations, thinking of staying away from it and staying indoors.

Just keep your distance from anyone vaguely East Asian looking and you'll be fine!:P

Oranage2 · 07-02-2020 06:49PM

cloudatlas wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/07/ive-been-walking-stairs-for-exercise-life-under-coronavirus-quarantine

A couple of things annoyed me about the quarantine in the uk at the Wirral. The guy who wrote this sounds like a bit of an idiot but the people ordering take away and especially the guy hoarding the booze sound like ungrateful dicks taking the piss out of the kindness shown them.

Also they should be confined to their rooms if someone was sick they would have transferred it to handles and counters, tables by now. Makes little sense.

Wouldn't surprise me too much since half the teachers in China are alcoholics.

Fr_Dougal · 07-02-2020 06:51PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KdG8z8Nb5rk

Well...thank god for that, just a normal girl from China casually talking about her daily experience..everything is going to be okay... 🤥

VinLieger · 07-02-2020 06:58PM

babybuilder wrote: »

What are the chances of this precipitating a world wide recession/depression? Also, Is the fact that the virus has been shown to survive 28 days on metal surfaces got anything to do with An Post's decision to cancel all mail from China? I'm aware of the obvious reason being airlines stopping flights but just wondering.

Its very likely going to trigger some kind of recession but nobody knows how bad yet.

An post have only canceled post to china as theres no commercial planes for them to send it on.

TheValeyard · 07-02-2020 07:01PM

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KdG8z8Nb5rk

Well...thank god for that, just a normal girl from China casually talking about her daily experience..everything is going to be okay... ðŸ€¥

This video is approved and sponsored by the Administration. All hail Xi.

Yurt2 · 07-02-2020 07:03PM

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KdG8z8Nb5rk

Well...thank god for that, just a normal girl from China casually talking about her daily experience..everything is going to be okay... 🤥

In case the slightly Orwellian 'unity is strength' line and her robotic rehearsed demenour didn't give it away, China Plus is part of China Radio International: a soft-power propaganda arm of the CCP.

I was half expecting her to say 'drink more warm water, good for healthy' (anyone who has spent any degree of time in China will recognise this).

fritzelly · 07-02-2020 07:08PM

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KdG8z8Nb5rk

Well...thank god for that, just a normal girl from China casually talking about her daily experience..everything is going to be okay... 🤥

Looks legit

https://www.imdb.com/name/nm3137286/

07-02-2020 07:13PM

Only snapchats of significance to report was a few 15 hrs ago saying a supermarket was open.

Doesn’t say how long it was open for and there was no mad crowd of people rushing to get in.

Carol25 · 07-02-2020 07:41PM

Just watching RTE Six One news and a number of concerning points have been raised:
1. Why are we relying on people to ‘self declare’ re the virus, and not doing any screening at airports at all...seems extremely reckless.
2. How on earth do you track everyone that had been in contact with a person who potentially carried the virus from Asia to Ireland.
3. Has Ireland identified any areas/places to open in the event of an outbreak in an specific area.
4. Should there be a public awareness campaign made available to schools, companies, etc, and precautionary measures taken to try and limit any potential spread.
5. When a person suspects they might have the virus, what is the procedure. What number do you ring, what is the plan?! At least in England they’ve been given a number to dial...

Loafing Oaf · 07-02-2020 07:46PM

Carol25 wrote: »

3. Has Ireland identified any areas/places to open in the event of an outbreak in an specific area.
4. Should there be a public awareness campaign made available to schools, companies, etc, and precautionary measures taken to try and limit any potential spread.
5. When a person suspects they might have the virus, what is the procedure. What number do you ring, what is the plan?! At least in England they’ve been given a number to dial...

Our health minister appears to have himself been quarantined for the duration of the general election campaign:P so the country may be a bit rudderless with regard to these matters...

babybuilder · 07-02-2020 07:50PM

You don't have to go to China for censorship. Was the potential virus threat ever mentioned during the TV debates?

hmmm · 07-02-2020 07:51PM

Carol25 wrote: »

2. How on earth do you track everyone that had been in contact with a person who potentially carried the virus from Asia to Ireland.

You don't have to track everyone, just enough to reduce the spread. If someone has been in contact with 50 people, it's not going to spread to 50 people - maybe 2 or 3 might have been infected. If you can track down 40 of those people and ask them to keep an eye on any symptoms, you stand a good chance of reducing future spread.

hmmm · 07-02-2020 07:57PM

wakka12 wrote: »

40 more cases confirmed on the Japanese boat. 61 in total now. Well if the spreadability of the virus was ever in doubt that certainly puts it to bed
Given that it seems remarkable that there has been so few localised outbreaks of note outside of China, especially with the lax screening of chinese touristsand immigrants into many countries even now, and several verified reports of confirmed infected invididuals holidaying throughout countries such as Mexico, England. I was reading an article yesterday about a Chinese man ho was infected and was hoolidaying in Mexico city, none of the dozens of people he was in contact with contracted it.

There's must be something about the environment of a cruise ship which is causing the spread to be more severe, and while they might not like being guinea pigs it's giving researchers a great opportunity.

We're not seeing much in the way of spreads in airports or railways etc. Even on airplanes, we're not seeing cases caused by people sitting directly beside infected people.

VinLieger · 07-02-2020 07:57PM

babybuilder wrote: »

You don't have to go to China for censorship. Was the potential virus threat ever mentioned during the TV debates?

No because it would help none of them to be talking about it during campaigning.

joseywhales · 07-02-2020 07:58PM

Hmmm, I wonder could it have anything to do with the lack of fresh air supply.

saabsaab · 07-02-2020 08:01PM

Carol25 wrote: »

Just watching RTE Six One news and a number of concerning points have been raised:
1. Why are we relying on people to ‘self declare’ re the virus, and not doing any screening at airports at all...seems extremely reckless.
2. How on earth do you track everyone that had been in contact with a person who potentially carried the virus from Asia to Ireland.
3. Has Ireland identified any areas/places to open in the event of an outbreak in an specific area.
4. Should there be a public awareness campaign made available to schools, companies, etc, and precautionary measures taken to try and limit any potential spread.
5. When a person suspects they might have the virus, what is the procedure. What number do you ring, what is the plan?! At least in England they’ve been given a number to dial...

All good points 'self declare' is daft policy. The number they indicate is the local HSE contact on their website. We should have closed potential flights days ago.

new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

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