new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

pc7 wrote: »

Surely it has to be positive that we aren't seeing huge growth in numbers so far out side of China?

China knows what they have on their hands, you get a cold in the wrong part of china they're testing you. Even then there's a limit to how many they can diagnose.

Whereas everywhere else it's being limited to ports of entry and the odd out of the norm confined outbreak that needs to be investigated.

Might be that they're just aren't finding it.

volchitsa wrote: »

If that is happening in any numbers, then death rates from pneumonia etc will have spiked. Are they going to refuse to make those available while publishing (official) death rates from this virus? Would be pretty dodgy looking, surely?

I don't think these deaths are showing up in official numbers.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/relatives-wonder-whether-pneumonia-deaths-were-tied-to-coronavirus-11579915630

A 53-year-old fitness trainer died on Wednesday after checking into a hospital in Wuhan a little more than a week earlier, said his niece. His family had expected the death certificate to reflect the deadly coronavirus, because as his condition deteriorated, his doctors told his family he was suffering from an untreatable virus in his lungs. Instead, it recorded “severe pneumonia” as the cause of death, she said. The relatives of two other people who died in separate hospitals in Wuhan this week also described similar situations, saying the causes of death had been given as “viral pneumonia.”

odyssey06 wrote: »

I don't think these deaths are showing up in official numbers.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/relatives-wonder-whether-pneumonia-deaths-were-tied-to-coronavirus-11579915630

A 53-year-old fitness trainer died on Wednesday after checking into a hospital in Wuhan a little more than a week earlier, said his niece. His family had expected the death certificate to reflect the deadly coronavirus, because as his condition deteriorated, his doctors told his family he was suffering from an untreatable virus in his lungs. Instead, it recorded “severe pneumonia” as the cause of death, she said. The relatives of two other people who died in separate hospitals in Wuhan this week also described similar situations, saying the causes of death had been given as “viral pneumonia.”

Right, and my point is that these deaths are also recorded. Has the death rate in China for viral pneumonia or other illnesses risen significantly? (I realize we may not know this yet, but unless China usually keeps its death rates secret from the WHO, this will come out at some point, or their refusal to make the numerous available will show that they are hiding something important.

(Although just on the point of what the family expected to be told, I read during the swine flu scare in the UK that one major problem for hospitals was that other illnesse - in this case it was about a death from meningitis - tend to be missed because everyone thinks of the current epidemic, swine flu or Coronavirus or whatever, and treats accordingly. So let's not forget that we don't know that the man actually had Coronavirus. That itself is a dangerous assumption.)

volchitsa wrote: »

Right, and my point is that these deaths are also recorded. Has the death rate in China for viral pneumonia or other illnesses risen significantly? (I realize we may not know this yet, but unless China usually keeps its death rates secret from the WHO, this will come out at some point, or their refusal to make the numerous available will show that they are hiding something important.

Have you seen those figures? I think it's very telling we haven't seen them published anywhere yet. And I think that's the reason China sealed off Wuhan, and Hong Kong is closing its border. And that's why western governments evacuated its citizens and told them to leave.
It's not the published death toll accredited to the virus that scared them.
It's the total death toll.

At least, that's my interpretation of the numbers.

Several cases of new local h2h transmissions amongst people with no travel history to China in Singapore, Hong Kong and Malaysia

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

Japan is registered as haivng 45 cases, which is significant, with Tokyo being perhaps the world's most populated and very densely packed city.

The Japanese will be perhaps even more reluctant to report true figures than China. They are not known for their transparency.

Kaya Prehistoric Landlord wrote: »

Keep trading, keep traveling, and prepare for the virus to spread in your country. That's the apparent consensus among governments and NGOs. Rather than seek to prevent its spread, they accept that it will and look only at mitigating its effects when it does.

What I dont get is that China now has major areas under effective lockdown and is severely restricting travel between regions/ cities. And yet they are being critical of other countries curtailing travel to and from China. What gives?

Why does it take so long to diagnose these Irish cases, I thought there was quicker testing kits out there, I hate this not knowing if they are genuine cases or not.

Edit: Just found a news item that says there are faster testing kits that can diagnose Novell Coronavirus in 4 to 6 hours available in Ireland, so why the hell are they not using these. https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/coronavirus-new-test-with-faster-results-available-in-ireland-1.4160156

creditcarder wrote: »

I thought 10 as we are talking about the cruise guy?

Well twenty now.

Duke of Url wrote: »

The HSE said in a statement that they will not be commenting on individual cases until a time where there is a confirmed case of the killer influenza in Ireland.

lol.... did they really use that language