General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

charlie14 wrote: »

If FF end up wit most seats and refuse too do a deal with SF as they have said. If the numbers stack up for a FG C&S and FG refuse, or appear to set unreasonable demands resulting in another GE, then I very much doubt they would be looked upon as bottom of the list in culpability.

What has happened in other countries is that the smaller entities get punished and votes come back to the main parties. While voting patterns may seem alien, voters do become aware of their choices and adjust. You'd want some level of dislike to blame a potentially future opposition party in FG for others not being able to do a deal. All parties have red lines. Just because voters don't see them does not mean they don't exist and they certainly can't demand that they cross them.

blanch152 wrote: »

It won't be just FG refusing to reciprocate with a C&S agreement, it will be SF refusing to step up to the plate again.

FF are actually going to be in a difficult position. The electorate is polarised. 30% don't want FG in government. 36% don't want SF in government.

If FF go in with FG, SF have the 30% all to themselves, if they go in with SF, then FG have the 36% all to themselves.

If FF win most seats and stick to ruling out SF, then it wont be a case of SF refusing to step up to the plate.


The only other possible government in that scenario then would be a FF led one with a C&S agreement from FG.
If FG refuse, or are deemed to be unreasonable, then a potential bar of soap for them in how their voters are going to react if it is the cause of another GE which would most likely return SF as the largest party.

Gunmonkey wrote: »

Because they dont know themselves. Everytime its come up, we are told "its been costed by the Dept of Finance".......which means F all in reality!

You can "cost" something easily: going to the cinema, you can cost up the amount fairly handily: lets 2 tickets @ €12 each, 2 drinks and a lrg popcorn @ €10 leads to a costed total amount of €32.

Rock up with only a fiver means you may have costed it but cant afford it!

It just means this is the correct cost of such a measure but no comment as to the advisability of the policy.

A bit too early to discuss but basically it's the Dail failing to elect a Taoiseach. One would suspect the President won't be overly eager to dissolve the Dail since the people have spoken. He possibly send them back for another round of talks, if that's within his power.
Way ahead of myself, Saturday first.

charlie14 wrote: »

That would be a call for the electorate if it resulted in another GE as to which they view as being unreasonable.

I think we're close to a plague on all their houses and I really can't see this transpiring.

blanch152 wrote: »

Martin will be clever. He will ask Sinn Fein to apologise for the actions of the IRA, to co-operate with a statutory investigation into the Mairia Cahill and Paudie McGahon cases and to come clean on incidents like Paul Quinn. His hatred runs deeper than mine.

Sinn Fein will refuse, leaving questions.

Martin has been doing that and it is the opposite of 'clever'.

He is two points down on the people he is asking pointless questions of.
The voters know the answers, they are sick and tired of them.

charlie14 wrote: »

If it did transpire, if one party is seen as culpable then I could see it being a major plague on their house.

No one party can be held responsible if the Dail fails to accept all nominees for Taoiseach.

blanch152 wrote: »

Will Sinn Fein step up to the plate and agree a Confidence and Supply Arrangement?

Why do you see the onus on FG only?

Are Leo and Michael going to come down off the fence and discuss a C&S?

is_that_so wrote: »

Not until a possible deal has been lined up so about a month away at least.

If I ran SF and they finished first or second in the % vote and the two other's tried to thrash out a deal first and then came to me after they had failed...I'd be telling them were to go. Or making a fairly large demand..rotating Taoiseach or some such, to do business.

It would be something like what the arrogant power share party's would do, followed quickly by their supporters and the anti SF crowd blaming SF for the failure to form a government.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

If I ran SF and they finished first or second in the % vote and the two other's tried to thrash out a deal first and then came to me after they had failed...I'd be telling them were to go. Or making a fairly large demand..rotating Taoiseach or some such, to do business.

It would be something like what the arrogant power share party's would do, followed quickly by their supporters and the anti SF crowd blaming SF for the failure to form a government.

Well it would be the overall numbers in the Dail. FF will go to others first. They won't do a deal with SF and apparently SF's policies are red lines anyway so like that would work.

sid waddell wrote: »

Kerry poll:

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1224771027827339265

Might have been better if this poll had never been released as it means Danny Healy Rae's vote will probably get shored up now.

Anyone know what Danny is polling so badly here?

Any ideas where i could watch the prime time debate online from the uk?

Can't see any reason why it would be geoblocked on the RTE Player?