General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

easypazz · 04-02-2020 01:16PM

Chips Lovell wrote: »

I can't see it happening. Everything he's said over the past few weeks will make it impossible and I think on a personal level he won't do it either. If it comes down to it, I think he'd resign as leader rather than do a deal with them.

Hopefully his only choices are either resign or enter coalition with Sinn Fein.

seamus · 04-02-2020 01:20PM

Sir Oxman wrote: »

Would not surprise me at all.

To be fair, people from all parties were coming out and saying they didn't want a pre-Xmas election, that the electorate will punish politicians that force them to engage in an election campaign while the Xmas preparations are happening. Even if the length of his tenure was in his mind, I doubt it was Leo's primary motivation.

Whether Micháel will pull the same trick as Eamonn Ryan, and step down after negotiating a coalition with SF, I'd don't know. He's at an age now where he might be eyeing up the possibility of serving one term as leader, and then retiring on a high. The only reason he'd step down is if he wanted to ensure he was re-elected at the next election.

blanch152 · 04-02-2020 01:21PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I take you point about turnout.
FG if anything have finished below their polling figures (they were as high as 31% in a few polls last time and finished on 25%) in the last two elections. 3 of the last 5 polls had them on 30%. If that were to happen this time they would finish somewhere between 15 and 20%, closer to 15 imo.

I can't see FG falling to 15%, that is fantasy stuff.

What was most interesting from today's poll was the figure for who you don't want in government. 36% of people don't want Sinn Fein in government. They are mostly FF and FG voters. Whichever of those two parties goes into government with SF will alienate a large section of their support.

The party in second place on the unpopularity index was FG, with 30% of voters not wanting them in government. Those voters are probably more spread out in parties like Labour, Greens, PBP, I4C etc., as well as SF and FF.

So FF supporters would marginally prefer FG over SF, but FG may play hard to get and FF activists may prefer SF to their traditional enemy.

Interesting times.

loyatemu · 04-02-2020 01:28PM

seamus wrote: »

Whether Micháel will pull the same trick as Eamonn Ryan, and step down after negotiating a coalition with SF, I'd don't know.

that was Trevor Sargent, who is now a vicar I believe.

Tricky for FF and FG. If there's stalemate after the election, and another vote is needed, you can be damn sure SF won't only run 42 candidates.

FrancieBrady · 04-02-2020 01:31PM

blanch152 wrote: »

I can't see FG falling to 15%, that is fantasy stuff.

If voting went the way it did last time was the point.
They finished 3-5% points down on what the polls predicted.

FrancieBrady · 04-02-2020 01:33PM

loyatemu wrote: »

that was Trevor Sargent, who is now a vicar I believe.

Tricky for FF and FG. If there's stalemate after the election, and another vote is needed, you can be damn sure SF won't only run 42 candidates.

And if I was FG, I would take my beating and regroup. Shoring up another failure FF FG C&S government will hurt them more long term.

Michael may have no options after if FG won't play ball.

loyatemu · 04-02-2020 01:37PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Michael may have no options after if FG won't play ball.

If SF do top the poll (which I still think is unlikely) expect them to play very hard ball in any negotiations.

charlie14 · 04-02-2020 01:40PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

And if I was FG, I would take my beating and regroup. Shoring up another failure FF FG C&S government will hurt them more long term.

Michael may have no options after if FG won't play ball.

If that was to happen and Martin didn`t go with SF there wuld most likely be another election.
If that happens, while SF might improve their seat numbers FG would most likely get a real hammering losing voters to FF.

A rock and a hard place for FG.

blanch152 · 04-02-2020 01:51PM

charlie14 wrote: »

If that was to happen and Martin didn`t go with SF there wuld most likely be another election.
If that happens, while SF might improve their seat numbers FG would most likely get a real hammering losing voters to FF.

A rock and a hard place for FG.

That is one narrative.

Another one is that FG lose seats on Saturday, Varadkar takes the position that the electorate have voted them down on two successive occasions, they are listening to the electorate and will take a step back, go into opposition and it is up to the other parties with nearly 120 seats between them to figure it out.

When they fail, he can go back to the electorate with the message that the others can't do it without us, if you want a government you have to give us more votes and seats.

is_that_so · 04-02-2020 01:58PM

easypazz wrote: »

If FG lose a heap of seats, and FF and SF each gain a heap of seats, as is being predicted, then the people are clearly saying they want FG out and they want a FF/SF coalition.

This must be respected. FG would be mad to go into a confidence and supply on the back of a hiding.

The last time out FF did it on the back of a good performance.

Voters are doing the equivalent of none of the above. FF/SF is as likely as a FG/FF coalition. FG would prefer to regroup but they are also available to do the necessary.

is_that_so · 04-02-2020 02:03PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

And if I was FG, I would take my beating and regroup. Shoring up another failure FF FG C&S government will hurt them more long term.

Michael may have no options after if FG won't play ball.

No party is obliged to do a deal with any other. Policy-wise SF are backing two that FF will not entertain and most of the rest of what they want to do is a gamble on CT. Then there is the historical stuff which Martin is very vociferous about and their stance is not to go into government with them.

charlie14 · 04-02-2020 02:17PM

blanch152 wrote: »

That is one narrative.

Another one is that FG lose seats on Saturday, Varadkar takes the position that the electorate have voted them down on two successive occasions, they are listening to the electorate and will take a step back, go into opposition and it is up to the other parties with nearly 120 seats between them to figure it out.

When they fail, he can go back to the electorate with the message that the others can't do it without us, if you want a government you have to give us more votes and seats.

He could do that, but he would most likely get a hammering for causing another GE so soon.
First he would be saying "We heard what you are saying and we are taking a step back" then less than a wet week after it`s "Give us more seats so we can form a government".

Most, if not all, of FG`s strategy in this election has been a shambles, but to attempt that is a level of stupidity where even the most diehard FG supporter would have trouble giving them a vote of any preference on.

is_that_so · 04-02-2020 02:23PM

charlie14 wrote: »

He could do that, but he would most likely get a hammering for causing another GE so soon.
First he would be saying "We heard what you are saying and we are taking a step back" then less than a wet week after it`s "Give us more seats so we can form a government".

Most, if not all, of FG`s strategy in this election has been a shambles, but to attempt that is a level of stupidity where even the most diehard FG supporter would have trouble giving them a vote of any preference on.

The biggest party will try to form a government. That should be FF and they are clear on who they will not work with and people who vote for FF understand that. If an agreement can't be reached and voters of all parties will have their own views on that we'll be back at it soon enough.

Phoebas · 04-02-2020 02:35PM

loyatemu wrote: »

If SF do top the poll (which I still think is unlikely) expect them to play very hard ball in any negotiations.

SF must be eyeing the possibility of no combination being able to firm a government (after having rejected SF) followed by another election in the early summer.

charlie14 · 04-02-2020 02:36PM

is_that_so wrote: »

The biggest party will try to form a government. That should be FF and they are clear on who they will not work with and people who vote for FF understand that. If an agreement can't be reached and voters of all parties will have their own views on that we'll be back at it soon enough.

All true, but if FF are the largest party and we end up with FG causing a GE because of refusing to reciprocate with a C&S agreement then I could not see it going well for them.

Interestingly enough, there are still 17% undecided from this latest poll.

This late in the game I`m surprised the percentage is so high.

is_that_so · 04-02-2020 02:42PM

charlie14 wrote: »

All true, but if FF are the largest party and we end up with FG causing a GE because of refusing to reciprocate with a C&S agreement then I could not see it going well for them.

Interestingly enough, there are still 17% undecided from this latest poll.

This late in the game I`m surprised the percentage is so high.

Yes it is pretty high. I don't think they'll refuse a C&S but will move to limit it. I think other entities would suffer more if end up back at the polls again.

charlie14 · 04-02-2020 02:57PM

is_that_so wrote: »

Yes it is pretty high. I don't think they'll refuse a C&S but will move to limit it. I think other entities would suffer more if end up back at the polls again.

Perhaps, but if we end up back at the polling booths because of that I could see it being a very hard sell for FG.

Nothing more than a feeling, but I`m getting the impression that 17% may be keeping their powder dry waiting for the Jerry Maguire "Show me the money" moment before deciding.

is_that_so · 04-02-2020 03:01PM

charlie14 wrote: »

Perhaps, but if we end up back at the polling booths because of that I could see it being a very hard sell for FG.

Nothing more than a feeling, but I`m getting the impression that 17% may be keeping their powder dry waiting for the Jerry Maguire "Show me the money" moment before deciding.

They really can't be blamed if the biggest party can't do a deal with others. A C&S is a courtesy agreement but not mandatory and one I'd expect them to drive a hard bargain over. Tonight may be a deciding moment for some voters.

FrancieBrady · 04-02-2020 03:07PM

is_that_so wrote: »

They really can't be blamed if the biggest party can't do a deal with others. A C&S is a courtesy agreement but not mandatory and one I'd expect them to drive a hard bargain over. Tonight may be a deciding moment for some voters.

I think tonight will be mostly box office for voters.

They'll be tuning in fireworks and wisecracks mostly.

blanch152 · 04-02-2020 03:41PM

charlie14 wrote: »

All true, but if FF are the largest party and we end up with FG causing a GE because of refusing to reciprocate with a C&S agreement then I could not see it going well for them.

Interestingly enough, there are still 17% undecided from this latest poll.

This late in the game I`m surprised the percentage is so high.

It won't be just FG refusing to reciprocate with a C&S agreement, it will be SF refusing to step up to the plate again.

FF are actually going to be in a difficult position. The electorate is polarised. 30% don't want FG in government. 36% don't want SF in government.

If FF go in with FG, SF have the 30% all to themselves, if they go in with SF, then FG have the 36% all to themselves.

Pete_Cavan · 04-02-2020 03:46PM

charlie14 wrote: »

Perhaps, but if we end up back at the polling booths because of that I could see it being a very hard sell for FG.

You seem to have decided that any failure to form a government will be the fault of FG. As said, first port of call is for the biggest party to form a government so ball will be in FF's court. In theory, SF on their own is the easier option but all the rest will probably do too. SF are attracting votes from people who want a change of government, I don't think they will be holding those voters if they don't do everything possible to be part of the next government, be that with FF or all the rest. FG will be bottom of the list in culpability if he government can't be formed and another election is required.

FrancieBrady · 04-02-2020 03:52PM

blanch152 wrote: »

It won't be just FG refusing to reciprocate with a C&S agreement, it will be SF refusing to step up to the plate again.

FF are actually going to be in a difficult position. The electorate is polarised. 30% don't want FG in government. 36% don't want SF in government.

If FF go in with FG, SF have the 30% all to themselves, if they go in with SF, then FG have the 36% all to themselves.

32% don't want Fine Gael.

Gunmonkey · 04-02-2020 04:53PM

average_runner wrote: »

Did SF explain the finances for implementing their policies last night ? I was looking at it and Mary Lou was lost.

One of SF senior candidates called to my door and failed to explain how his party will implement their policies without tax increases ?

Because they dont know themselves. Everytime its come up, we are told "its been costed by the Dept of Finance".......which means F all in reality!

You can "cost" something easily: going to the cinema, you can cost up the amount fairly handily: lets 2 tickets @ €12 each, 2 drinks and a lrg popcorn @ €10 leads to a costed total amount of €32.

Rock up with only a fiver means you may have costed it but cant afford it!

keane2097 · 04-02-2020 05:02PM

Gunmonkey wrote: »

Because they dont know themselves. Everytime its come up, we are told "its been costed by the Dept of Finance".......which means F all in reality!

You can "cost" something easily: going to the cinema, you can cost up the amount fairly handily: lets 2 tickets @ €12 each, 2 drinks and a lrg popcorn @ €10 leads to a costed total amount of €32.

Rock up with only a fiver means you may have costed it but cant afford it!

I don't really think your analogy reflects the reality of what is meant by all parties when they say their manifestos have been costed.

Amirani · 04-02-2020 05:26PM

keane2097 wrote: »

I don't really think your analogy reflects the reality of what is meant by all parties when they say their manifestos have been costed.

Sinn Fein had individual parts of their manifesto costed in isolation.

This is an entirely different exercise to taking all our their proposed measures in their entirety. The whole "costing" thing is nonsense, from most/all of the parties.

RandomViewer · 04-02-2020 05:36PM

L1011 wrote: »

Candidate is extra-specially unpopular; dumped on the first count in May and the bulk of her vote base from 2014 is in Kildare South now. Also has about ten posters across the entire constituency and I'm seeing less online activity than in May

If she gets in on a national SF wave it would probably be the biggest surprise of the election.

Stagg still going? Must be old as the hills

L1011 · 04-02-2020 05:38PM

RandomViewer wrote: »

Stagg still going? Must be old as the hills

Yes. Suspect it could be the oldest average age for the traditional party candidates in any constituency as Durkan is a very similar age and Murphy is >65 also.

charlie14 · 04-02-2020 05:59PM

Pete_Cavan wrote: »

You seem to have decided that any failure to form a government will be the fault of FG. As said, first port of call is for the biggest party to form a government so ball will be in FF's court. In theory, SF on their own is the easier option but all the rest will probably do too. SF are attracting votes from people who want a change of government, I don't think they will be holding those voters if they don't do everything possible to be part of the next government, be that with FF or all the rest. FG will be bottom of the list in culpability if he government can't be formed and another election is required.

If FF end up wit most seats and refuse too do a deal with SF as they have said. If the numbers stack up for a FG C&S and FG refuse, or appear to set unreasonable demands resulting in another GE, then I very much doubt they would be looked upon as bottom of the list in culpability.

blanch152 · 04-02-2020 06:05PM

charlie14 wrote: »

If FF end up wit most seats and refuse too do a deal with SF as they have said. If the numbers stack up for a FG C&S and FG refuse, or appear to set unreasonable demands resulting in another GE, then I very much doubt they would be looked upon as bottom of the list in culpability.

FF are top of the list for blame, SF second, in that scenario.

The parties that lose seats in a general election carry the least responsibility to form a government because the electorate have decided.

endainoz · 04-02-2020 06:07PM

blanch152 wrote:

FF are top of the list for blame, SF second, in that scenario.

So it's their fault that other parties won't go into government with them?

Yeah that makes sense.

General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

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