General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

is_that_so · 03-02-2020 07:42PM

Story on Tipperary postponement here
https://www.rte.ie/news/election-2020/2020/0203/1112908-marese-skehan/

sid waddell · 03-02-2020 07:47PM

cameramonkey wrote: »

You dont think they could have handled the water charges debacle better for example? Many labour leaders say that they could have done better on many issues. Its not credible to say its a fact that they couldnt.

Personally despite being no lover of FG whatsoever I was for water charges and I certainly thought the idea of water meters and a national public utility to oversee the water system was an eminently sensible idea because the water system nationwide is a total mess and requires massive upgrading and investment. The government actually caved on the issue when they probably shouldn't have. Yet they were accused of not listening. The reason they caved is because they listened. An FG single party government probably wouldn't have listened and would have ploughed on.

sid waddell · 03-02-2020 07:50PM

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Beyond what the legislation says why not just continue with the existing number of candidates? What am I missing?

I guess if it had been an FF or FG or SF candidate who had died, people wouldn't be seeing it that way.

It just so happens that it's an independent candidate who wasn't going to be elected who has died - but the rules have to be the same for everybody.

blue5000 · 03-02-2020 07:53PM

Marese Skehan R.I.P.

What does this mean for the Tipperary voters, will they hold the balance of power in a hung Dail. Has this ever happened before?

https://kilkennynow.ie/shock-as-tipperary-general-election-candidate-found-dead-at-her-home/

Petyr Baelish · 03-02-2020 07:54PM

blue5000 wrote: »

Marese Skehan R.I.P.

What does this mean for the Tipperary voters, will they hold the balance of power in a hung Dail. Has this ever happened before?

https://kilkennynow.ie/shock-as-tipperary-general-election-candidate-found-dead-at-her-home/

Not much, no and probably.

Kristopherus · 03-02-2020 07:55PM

Election in Tipp will be cancelled and a new election will be held there.

wirelessdude01 · 03-02-2020 07:56PM

Initially it means there will be no voting in Tipperary on Saturday.

is_that_so · 03-02-2020 07:56PM

Postponement also means nominations have to be reopened.

Bit cynical · 03-02-2020 08:35PM

Water John wrote: »

It will be interesting as to where SF end up. The polls are showing a big trend towards them and some of that certainly will come through in votes and seats. One poll might be an aberration but a No of Polls, No.
In effect as a party they seemed to to have done nothing exceptional in terms of a causal link. It's like the voters found them.

I think they've got to be seen as part of a general populist rise in Europe as well as elsewhere.

Marcusm · 03-02-2020 08:41PM

It's sad for the deceased candidate's family but how on earth did this get put into law. It makes no sense to allow this. Would be easier to arrange a by-election in the evnt that she had been elected.

An Ciarraioch · 03-02-2020 08:44PM

If every candidate currently filling the appropriate number of seats in each constituency according to Paddy Power was elected, the Dáil would end up as follows:

FF 58
FG 37
SF 28
Ind 16
Green 8
Lab 6
Soc Dems 5
Sol/PBP 1
Aontú 1

touts · 03-02-2020 08:52PM

RIP but postponment is crazy. If she was to win a seat (which was very unlikely) then hold a by-election for that seat.

hotmail.com · 03-02-2020 08:53PM

Irish Times poll due after 9pm, probably the last of the campaign.

I Am The Law · 03-02-2020 08:53PM

sid waddell wrote: »

I didn't vote for Labour in 2011 or 2016 and I won't be giving them a number one in 2020. I might give them a number two.

You can do nothing in opposition. You have a say in government.

None of SF, Soc Dems, Solidarity etc. would have done any better than Labour did in that government. That's a fact. They may well have done considerably worse. Being in opposition means you have no responsibility and can say what you like without having to follow through on it.

There isn't a person alive who would have improved the lot of anybody if they were in government from 2011-2016. That's in the realm of miracle working, which doesn't exist. 2011-2016 was about making sure the country did not become ungovernable and didn't descend into complete chaos and that there was a chance to build after that. Labour succeeded in that task.

It is not a government that people will look back fondly on but it did its job and that job was to stabilise things.

5%, the so called 'Labour' party are at 5%.

They have to be the biggest joke in Irish political life.

They failed in government, but how is it possible to fail so spectacularly in opposition.

Not a word from them in the last 4 years, when the election is called we are faced with Howlin, Burton and AK, enough to turn my stomach.

Sinn Fein are filling the vacuum and who could blame them.

hotmail.com · 03-02-2020 09:09PM

None of this sort of stuff would be able to happen if we used voting machines.

L1011 · 03-02-2020 09:22PM

Marcusm wrote: »

It's sad for the deceased candidate's family but how on earth did this get put into law. It makes no sense to allow this. Would be easier to arrange a by-election in the evnt that she had been elected.

Copy/paste from the UK most likely.

Mattie is considering challenging it. No incumbent is going to want the nominations process reopened when there's late stage polling data out there

FrancieBrady · 03-02-2020 09:26PM

is_that_so wrote: »

The traditional biggest parties don't do opposition unless forced into it. It's as it should be. There is nothing more unedifying than politicians announcing they will be in opposition the minute the vote are counted. As Harney said even one day in power is better than a whole term in opposition. You also get nothing done.

Perish the thought what state the country would be in had we not parties willing to 'oppose'.

Opposition is critical to a functioning democracy.

thequarefellow · 03-02-2020 09:26PM

I'll be voting Louise O'Reilly in Dublin Fingal

L1011 · 03-02-2020 09:28PM

sid waddell wrote: »

Kildare North is even tougher but again could be doable. It's a commuter constituency and the sort of place their message might hit home. But Catherine Murphy is there and she should get back, and the Greens will also be challenging. There are two FF TDs and they'll be hard to dislodge. Emmett Stagg for Labour could poll decently even if he won't get in. So a lot of competition.

Candidate is extra-specially unpopular; dumped on the first count in May and the bulk of her vote base from 2014 is in Kildare South now. Also has about ten posters across the entire constituency and I'm seeing less online activity than in May

If she gets in on a national SF wave it would probably be the biggest surprise of the election.

touts · 03-02-2020 09:39PM

Reading the law I think this throws up some interesting possobilities. As there will now be 5 seats up for grabs after the election those 5 seats could make or break the formation of the next government.

For example could Sinn Fein decide to drop Browne and instead parachute in a candidate that actually stood a chance. Maybe Gerry Adams could be talked out of retirement.

Or with local polls apparently showing that FG are splitting their vote and won't take a seat could one candidate be dropped from the ballot paper and they focus on a single name.

sid waddell · 03-02-2020 09:40PM

I Am The Law wrote: »

5%, the so called 'Labour' party are at 5%.

They have to be the biggest joke in Irish political life.

They failed in government, but how is it possible to fail so spectacularly in opposition.

Not a word from them in the last 4 years, when the election is called we are faced with Howlin, Burton and AK, enough to turn my stomach.

Sinn Fein are filling the vacuum and who could blame them.

That's a classic SF supporter "hurler on the ditch" type post.

Lots of inanities, lots of shouty, vague rhetoric, but zero attempt to acknowledge the existence of the complexities and difficulties of being in government.

SF are all talk, but they have no intention whatsoever of actually putting their words into action.

They would rather not even try to implement their policies, because they fear that if they tried to, they'd end up just like Labour.

RandomViewer · 03-02-2020 09:43PM

Nitrogan wrote: »

There's not much appetite to turn Ireland into Venezuela around here thankfully.

SF are basically FF with Passats instead of Mercedes, PBP would be your Venezuelan candidates

katana1 · 03-02-2020 09:54PM

Jin luk wrote: »

Just wondering how big the party is getting around the country?

Our main candidate for my area is matt mccarthy and the feeling is hes gonna smash the constituency and beat heather humphreys to the No.1 seat, seems this election alot more people around here are getting behind him and sinn fein

That is a very good question.I live between Cobh and Midleton ( Cork)..This is only from what I perceive from conversations with others ..
The hard line party people will still vote their respective parties but I would think that the usually "Undecided" and neutrals are more likely than ever to vote SF.
This is just my humble opinion.

irishash · 03-02-2020 10:07PM

hotmail.com wrote: »

Irish Times poll due after 9pm, probably the last of the campaign.

They have been hyping it since 7pm too. Maybe this is why.

sid waddell · 03-02-2020 10:12PM

Opinion poll "in the knows" are the political equivalent of football's transfer "in the knows" or ITKs.

ddarcy · 03-02-2020 10:14PM

It looks like the election in Tipp isn’t happening on Saturday

https://www.rte.ie/news/election-2020/2020/0203/1112908-marese-skehan/

I would have thought that it would have gone ahead and if she was elected a bye election would occur. Mattie McGrath is going to the courts to postpone all elections on Saturday as well. Will be interesting to say the least.

antimatterx · 03-02-2020 10:23PM

Sinn Fein top

Sinn Féin 25
Fianna Fáil 23
Fine Gael 20
Greens 8
Labour 4

**** this. FG should be top, they're doing a fabulous job but because they won't give everyone free houses and money they won't get the result they deserve!

Atlantic Dawn · 03-02-2020 10:27PM

RIP to her.

Is this not a rather dangerous rule to have in place, what if a candidate was assassinated in a constituency of a leader of one of the main party's for the purpose of rigging the election or if someone deliberately put their name down as a candidate in one of the big constituencies when they had days to live purely to delay voting?

hotmail.com · 03-02-2020 10:27PM

The trend is clear now.

SF stand to win most of the seats they are contesting based on those figures. FF may end up losing some seats.

FG , well, should be banned from contesting elections. They are so bad at them.

realdanbreen · 03-02-2020 10:29PM

This whole resubmitting nominations in Tipperary could be interesting. SF's candidate in Tipp is seen as being weak so might they parachute in a stronger candidate?

General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

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