General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

Fann Linn · 03-02-2020 10:53PM

is_that_so wrote: »

If you call being conned by an updated copy of the 1977 FF manifesto then yes they are!

Or sick and tired of FG/FF.

McMurphy · 03-02-2020 10:54PM

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

I think there will be a silent FG vote.

People who support FG and feel they've been responsible in their stewardship of Irelanf feel a bit embarrassed because of social media bashing of them

What's very interesting is FF have failed to flourish.

Whilst Varadkar will be very disappointed about how things have went , he is still in there pitching

The 3 parties could end up with very similar seat totals. Perhaps FF edging it by 3-5 seats

Certainly will be a very interesting election day

Varadkar will probably be out on his ear if they do as poorly as predicted.

Coveney won the popular vote, and it is my belief they should have went with him.

hotmail.com · 03-02-2020 10:55PM

McMurphy wrote: »

Varadkar will probably be out on his ear if they do as poorly as predicted.

Coveney won the popular vote, and it is my belief they should have went with him.

Does anyone actually like Coveney?

Naggdefy · 03-02-2020 10:57PM

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

It's all well and good saying you're going to vote SF

But irish politics is more local than that.

When people go to the ballot box and realise they dont have a clue who the SF candidate is they wont vote for them.

Minds will be firmly focused with these polls and SF will be lucky to poll at 18% come Saturday

There's a bit of wishful thinking from your posts I feel.

hotmail.com · 03-02-2020 10:59PM

So many Dublin FG TDs now nervous about their seats. Eoghan Murphy and Kate O'Connell are now in competition.

Regina Doherty and Joe Mcugh in Donegal in danger.

is_that_so · 03-02-2020 10:59PM

hotmail.com wrote: »

Meath West will elect a Sinn Fein candidate, no doubt about it. Toibin may also get elected at the expense of Damien English. Commuter/urban county. Even Dublin Bay South will give a SF TD based on those figures.

It doesn't matter how bad the candidates are - if the tide is with the party, they will pick up seats everywhere. The same happened with Labour in 2011 and a bunch of nobodys got elected.

Dublin Bay South is ex FF! Labour got transfers from everywhere. The SF transfers in 2016 largely came from the left and the Indos. That vote will decline but it should matter less as their vote may keep their candidates ahead of the rest. I wouldn't be so quick to dump out TDs, nor guess at how that vote between Toibin and SF will split. These numbers really don't tell you the local story.

McMurphy · 03-02-2020 11:01PM

hotmail.com wrote: »

Does anyone actually like Coveney?

I'm struggling to think of an actual likeable FG minister tbh. But I think he might have fared better with the public than a man who wears funky socks, yet seems to be completely devoid of emotion, and writes letters to Kylie Minogue.

I started to emphasise with leo in the last week's especially the autism slur, but I stand by my assertion he was a terrible Taoiseach - too obsessed with Leo Varadkar.

is_that_so · 03-02-2020 11:01PM

Fann Linn wrote: »

Or sick and tired of FG/FF.

Only if you don't read too carefully what you might be voting for but hey they're all selling the family china!

is_that_so · 03-02-2020 11:02PM

hotmail.com wrote: »

So many Dublin FG TDs now nervous about their seats. Eoghan Murphy and Kate O'Connell are now in competition.

Regina Doherty and Joe Mcugh in Donegal in danger.

Not McHugh, Pringle!

Dyr · 03-02-2020 11:02PM

McMurphy wrote: »

Varadkar will probably be out on his ear if they do as poorly as predicted.

Coveney won the popular vote, and it is my belief they should have went with him.

Depending on who you believe coveney may be out on his ear in cork, seems unlikely to me but there you go

The interesting thing with Tipp is that if labour have a bad day at the polls then it will have a knock on effect on akan kellys vote later

darem93 · 03-02-2020 11:04PM

Obviously it's only a poll so I'm taking it with a pinch of salt, but it's still unreal to see SF actually leading over the two Irish political juggernauts.

It's a shame SF only ran 42 candidates judging by these figures, but I can see why they did it after the local elections last year.

is_that_so · 03-02-2020 11:04PM

Bambi wrote: »

Depending on who you believe coveney may be out on his ear in cork, seems unlikely to me but there you go

The interesting thing with Tipp is that if labour have a bad day at the polls then it will have a knock on effect on akan kellys vote later

Even at 20% there is a FG quota so fairly doubtful.

hotmail.com · 03-02-2020 11:04PM

McMurphy wrote: »

I'm struggling to think of an actual likeable FG minister tbh. But I think he might have fared better with the public than a man who wears funky socks, yet seems to be completely devoid of emotion, and writes letters to Kylie Minogue.

I started to emphasise with leo in the last week's especially the autism slur, but I stand by my assertion he was a terrible Taoiseach - too obsessed with Leo Varadkar.

I agree, but I actually think Coveney comes across as even more wooden, snobby and serious and intimately unlikable.

The only likeable cabinet minister is Regina Doherty in my view. And she's likely to lose her seat based on the polls.

is_that_so · 03-02-2020 11:06PM

hotmail.com wrote: »

I agree, but I actually think Coveney comes across as even more wooden, snobby and serious and intimately unlikable.

The only likeable cabinet minister is Regina Doherty in my view. And she's likely to lose her seat based on the polls.

You must be the only person who thinks that! But yeah she'll be under pressure.

hotmail.com · 03-02-2020 11:08PM

is_that_so wrote: »

Dublin Bay South is ex FF! Labour got transfers from everywhere. The SF transfers in 2016 largely came from the left and the Indos. That vote will decline but it should matter less as their vote may keep their candidates ahead of the rest. I wouldn't be so quick to dump out TDs, nor guess at how that vote between Toibin and SF will split. These numbers really don't tell you the local story.

Transfers will be irrelevant based on this figures as they will pass the quota on the first or second count. I think you are ignoring the poll figures! 25% is enough for them to win a lot of new seats.

They finished 6th in Dublin Bay South in 2016, with 9.5% of the vote. They will win a seat there. Sorry to break it to you!

McMurphy · 03-02-2020 11:10PM

hotmail.com wrote: »

I agree, but I actually think Coveney comes across as even more wooden, snobby and serious and intimately unlikable.

The only likeable cabinet minister is Regina Doherty in my view. And she's likely to lose her seat based on the polls.

I like Fergus O'Dowd tbh, but his biggest problem (for FG) was that he was always way too truthful on the telly. You can't have an honest politician, that's never gonna last long.

ArmaniJeanss · 03-02-2020 11:11PM

If it was one of the candidates who are standing in multiple constituencies then it could make a farce of the whole thing.
It's an unfortunate situation that doesn't have an ideal solution, but this seems one of the worst options.

is_that_so · 03-02-2020 11:12PM

hotmail.com wrote: »

Transfers will be irrelevant based on this figures as they will pass the quota on the first or second count. I think you are ignoring the poll figures! 25% is enough for them to win a lot of new seats.

They finished 6th in Dublin Bay South in 2016, with 9.5% of the vote. They will win a seat there. Sorry to break it to you!

Only if they get those numbers. TBH you're just randomly calling constituencies based on an opinion poll. If you're going to have a stab at it use the quotas not the %.

hotmail.com · 03-02-2020 11:13PM

is_that_so wrote: »

Only if they get those numbers. TBH you're just randomly calling constituencies based on an opinion poll. If you're going to have a stab at it use the quotas not the %.

You mentioned Dublin Bay South.

is_that_so · 03-02-2020 11:13PM

McMurphy wrote: »

I like Fergus O'Dowd tbh, but his biggest problem (for FG) was that he was always way too truthful on the telly. You can't have an honest politician, that's never gonna last long.

He should be OK as a Drogheda TD but retaining 2nd seat looks very challenging.

hotmail.com · 03-02-2020 11:14PM

McMurphy wrote: »

I like Fergus O'Dowd tbh, but his biggest problem (for FG) was that he was always way too truthful on the telly. You can't have an honest politician, that's never gonna last long.

Yeah he's not bad, although he isn't a minister. He's outside of the loop in FG I get the impression.

is_that_so · 03-02-2020 11:15PM

hotmail.com wrote: »

You mentioned Dublin Bay South.

And Donegal and pointed out the issue with your "4 and 5 seater" claim. Use quotas not %.

Jizique · 03-02-2020 11:17PM

McMurphy wrote: »

I started to emphasise with leo in the last week's especially the autism slur, but I stand by my assertion he was a terrible Taoiseach - too obsessed with Leo Varadkar.

You mustn’t remember Haughey or Bertie

McMurphy · 03-02-2020 11:17PM

hotmail.com wrote: »

Yeah he's not bad, although he isn't a minister. He's outside of the loop in FG I get the impression.

Yeah, he's an ex minister, caused quite the furore when he made some serious claims about dark forces and privatisation ref Irish water.

mcgragger · 03-02-2020 11:18PM

darem93 wrote: »

Obviously it's only a poll so I'm taking it with a pinch of salt, but it's still unreal to see SF actually leading over the two Irish political juggernauts.

It's a shame SF only ran 42 candidates judging by these figures, but I can see why they did it after the local elections last year.

If the poll was done by a reputable agency then I'd be pretty surprised if it was much wrong outisde of the normal tolerance levels.

FF and FG are in trouble.

Fann Linn · 03-02-2020 11:18PM

Jizique wrote: »

You mustn’t remember Haughey or Bertie

Decades ago.

is_that_so · 03-02-2020 11:19PM

McMurphy wrote: »

Yeah, he's an ex minister, caused quite the furore when he made some serious claims about dark forces and privatisation ref Irish water.

He was banished for being a tad too anti-Enda and of course comments on the many flaws of IW.

is_that_so · 03-02-2020 11:20PM

mcgragger wrote: »

If the poll was done by a reputable agency then I'd be pretty surprised if it was much wrong outisde of the normal tolerance levels.

FF and FG are in trouble.

FF will probably be in government and l'm sure that's trouble they'd welcome.

McMurphy · 03-02-2020 11:21PM

Jizique wrote: »

You mustn’t remember Haughey or Bertie

Haughey no, Bertie I was living abroad for the most of his tenure.

Biffo, Enda and Leo would be the ones I'm most familiar with, had no interest in politics tbh until I became a real adult (mortgage and kids) :pac:

hotmail.com · 03-02-2020 11:21PM

is_that_so wrote: »

And Donegal and pointed out the issue with your "4 and 5 seater" claim. Use quotas not %.

I addressed that point.

If these figures are correct, they will surpass the quota on the first or second count in 4 or 5 seat constituencies as they are only running one candidate in most of them.

It's fairly simple.

General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

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