General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

is_that_so · 03-02-2020 10:31PM

FF coalition it is.

antimatterx · 03-02-2020 10:33PM

Despite MM objections, it's not his choice. FF will ditch him if refuses to use SF to regain power

is_that_so · 03-02-2020 10:33PM

hotmail.com wrote: »

The trend is clear now.

SF stand to win most of the seats they are contesting based on those figures. FF may end up losing some seats.

FG , well, should be banned from contesting elections. They are so bad at them.

SF can't really as they don't have enough candidates. FG got two terms, they shouldn't be greedy!

is_that_so · 03-02-2020 10:34PM

antimatterx wrote: »

Despite MM objections, it's not his choice. FF will ditch him if refuses to use SF to regain power

He doesn't need them. A deal can be made with the rest.

hotmail.com · 03-02-2020 10:35PM

is_that_so wrote: »

SF can't really as they don't have enough candidates. FG got two terms, they shouldn't be greedy!

That's why I said they will win most of the seats they are contesting, which is 42.

At this point, they could advise their voters on second preferences.

ninebeanrows · 03-02-2020 10:36PM

I think there will be a silent FG vote.

People who support FG and feel they've been responsible in their stewardship of Irelanf feel a bit embarrassed because of social media bashing of them

What's very interesting is FF have failed to flourish.

Whilst Varadkar will be very disappointed about how things have went , he is still in there pitching

The 3 parties could end up with very similar seat totals. Perhaps FF edging it by 3-5 seats

Certainly will be a very interesting election day

kazoo106 · 03-02-2020 10:36PM

Can he though - considering the relationship with the SDLP in the North

Fann Linn · 03-02-2020 10:37PM

SF top of poll now according to Ipsos MRBI for Irish Times.

antimatterx · 03-02-2020 10:37PM

is_that_so wrote: »

He doesn't need them. A deal can be made with the rest.

Won't last 3 years, but I suppose he doesn't care. He's 60 and will get a term as Taoiseach

is_that_so · 03-02-2020 10:37PM

hotmail.com wrote: »

That's why I said they will win most of the seats they are contesting, which is 42.

At this point, they could advise their voters on second preferences.

Some of them they haven't a hope in and in some they'll have a huge transfer going to nobody.

antimatterx · 03-02-2020 10:38PM

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

I think there will be a silent FG vote.

People who support FG and feel they've been responsible in their stewardship of Irelanf feel a bit embarrassed because of social media bashing of them

What's very interesting is FF have failed to flourish.

Whilst Varadkar will be very disappointed about how things have went , he is still in there pitching

The 3 parties could end up with very similar seat totals. Perhaps FF edging it by 3-5 seats

Certainly will be a very interesting election day

I really hope there's a secret FG vote

is_that_so · 03-02-2020 10:39PM

antimatterx wrote: »

Won't last 3 years, but I suppose he doesn't care. He's 60 and will get a term as Taoiseach

I think it will probably be a replica of what we've had, with maybe same 3 year commitment from FG. If he can't get a deal it might be GE2020 #2.

Ohmeha · 03-02-2020 10:39PM

Wow if replicated on Saturday FF/FG will have a combined 43% of the vote

hotmail.com · 03-02-2020 10:39PM

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

I think there will be a silent FG vote.

People who support FG and feel they've been responsible in their stewardship of Irelanf feel a bit embarrassed because of social media bashing of them

What's very interesting is FF have failed to flourish.

Whilst Varadkar will be very disappointed about how things have went , he is still in there pitching

The 3 parties could end up with very similar seat totals. Perhaps FF edging it by 3-5 seats

Certainly will be a very interesting election day

I don't think it can be under estimated how disliked Eoghan Murphy and Simon Harris are among the public.

And it isn't social media hype. The hatred is real. Leo should have sacked both of them last year.

gmisk · 03-02-2020 10:40PM

antimatterx wrote: »

Sinn Fein top

Sinn Féin 25
Fianna Fáil 23
Fine Gael 20
Greens 8
Labour 4

**** this. FG should be top, they're doing a fabulous job but because they won't give everyone free houses and money they won't get the result they deserve!

Jesus SF are flying!

is_that_so · 03-02-2020 10:41PM

antimatterx wrote: »

I really hope there's a secret FG vote

When you drill down into these polls it's very hard to say what anyone is thinking but FG and Indos will lose seats and almost everyone else will gain.

Fann Linn · 03-02-2020 10:42PM

is_that_so wrote: »

When you drill down into these polls it's very hard to say what anyone is thinking but FG and Indos will lose seats and almost everyone else will gain.

Not a bad thing really.

hotmail.com · 03-02-2020 10:42PM

is_that_so wrote: »

Some of them they haven't a hope in and in some they'll have a huge transfer going to nobody.

I don't know the details of each constituency but they will win a seat in every 4 or 5 seater constituency based on those figures.

is_that_so · 03-02-2020 10:44PM

Fann Linn wrote: »

Not a bad thing really.

Not surprising for a party seeking a third term. FF looked to be heading out in 2007 but rallied in the last week or so.

An Ciarraioch · 03-02-2020 10:45PM

SF lead in every age group under 50:

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1224445551141253121

Fann Linn · 03-02-2020 10:45PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

SF lead in every age group under 50:

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1224445551141253121

Now to get the votes out.

L1011 · 03-02-2020 10:47PM

There is a consistent thing of Leinster sans Dublin being hugely SF in all these polls. Fed up commuter vote surely?

is_that_so · 03-02-2020 10:47PM

hotmail.com wrote: »

I don't know the details of each constituency but they will win a seat in every 4 or 5 seater constituency based on those figures.

Not DL, may not win Meath West( Toibin), Dublin Bay South is another one but will probably retain both in Louth and pick up that one in Donegal they blew in 2016.

ninebeanrows · 03-02-2020 10:48PM

It's all well and good saying you're going to vote SF

But irish politics is more local than that.

When people go to the ballot box and realise they dont have a clue who the SF candidate is they wont vote for them.

Minds will be firmly focused with these polls and SF will be lucky to poll at 18% come Saturday

easypazz · 03-02-2020 10:51PM

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

It's all well and good saying you're going to vote SF

But irish politics is more local than that.

When people go to the ballot box and realise they dont have a clue who the SF candidate is they wont vote for them.

Minds will be firmly focused with these polls and SF will be lucky to poll at 18% come Saturday

Not this time. People are sick of the same old FF / FG sh1t.

We all know SF can only be the smaller party in a coalition and wont get to implement all of their crazy policies.

Fann Linn · 03-02-2020 10:51PM

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

It's all well and good saying you're going to vote SF

But irish politics is more local than that.

When people go to the ballot box and realise they dont have a clue who the SF candidate is they wont vote for them.

Minds will be firmly focused with these polls and SF will be lucky to poll at 18% come Saturday

All these young voters are far more clued in than you give them credit for.
The only thing which will hold them back now is apathy.

Annasopra · 03-02-2020 10:51PM

sid waddell wrote: »

Kildare South is one. They finished fifth there in 2016 in a three seater. That's now a four seater but effectively still three because it contains the Ceann Comhairle. Their candidate Patricia Ryan was eliminated on the second last count, about 1900 odd votes behind the FF candidate who got in. That's doable for them.

She isnt exactly taking the campaign seriously

https://www.midlands103.com/news/midlands-news/general-election-candidate-goes-on-pre-planned-holiday-a-week-out-from-polling/

Sir Oxman · 03-02-2020 10:51PM

Ohmeha wrote: »

Wow if replicated on Saturday FF/FG will have a combined 43% of the vote

That's what I am keeping my eye on - I want that duopoly smashed or at least continuing to decline.

Oh what fun, if SF come out and express their desire for prefs to other leftish parties, well Sunday could be fun.:D

is_that_so · 03-02-2020 10:52PM

Fann Linn wrote: »

All these young voters are far more clued in than you give them credit for.
The only thing which will hold them back now is apathy.

If you call being conned by an updated copy of the 1977 FF manifesto then yes they are!

hotmail.com · 03-02-2020 10:52PM

is_that_so wrote: »

Not DL, may not win Meath West( Toibin), Dublin Bay South is another one but will probably retain both in Louth and pick up that one in Donegal they blew in 2016.

Meath West will elect a Sinn Fein candidate, no doubt about it. Toibin may also get elected at the expense of Damien English. Commuter/urban county. Even Dublin Bay South will give a SF TD based on those figures.

It doesn't matter how bad the candidates are - if the tide is with the party, they will pick up seats everywhere. The same happened with Labour in 2011 and a bunch of nobodys got elected.

General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

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