General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

Shelga · 03-02-2020 05:17PM

Help me out- really not sure what way to vote on Saturday. The three main parties don’t do anything for me:

Fianna Fail destroyed the country a decade ago, and still have as their leader a man who was right at the helm of all of that. The amount of people who are happy to overlook this is incomprehensible to me.

Fine Gael- I’ve liked their stance on Brexit but that’s about it. The housing crisis in this country is out of control, and I don’t agree with where we’re going with things like data centres- bending over and giving American conglomerates whatever they want.

Sinn Fein- economically illiterate, and I’ve no interest in a United Ireland. Very worrying links to terrorism- another aspect that I’m amazed so many people are happy to ignore.

Who does that leave? I’m probably going to vote Social Democrats #1, Greens #2, and leave the rest blank. Pretty uninspiring stuff really.

cameramonkey · 03-02-2020 05:20PM

sid waddell wrote: »

Would it have been better for Labour's base for the party to have stood back and allowed Fine Gael single party government to have imposed far worse cuts, knowing that they'd likely have benefitted electorally in 2016? Because that was an option for them. FG could have formed a government with minority support in 2011. They had 76 seats.

Yes it would have been better in the long run to stay out of government both for the country and for Labour. If FG wanted to impose their right wing policies with the results we have now they just should of let them at it. Labour could have formed a strong opposition to fight those policies. By going into government they decimated the party, imposed cruel conditions on the poor and those having difficulty with the downturn. They were not strong enough or ideologically driven enough to get enough out of the coalition, a bit like the Greens with FF.

sid waddell wrote: »

Labour got 37 seats in 2011. Had they stayed out of government then they could certainly have pushed into the 40s if not even better in terms of seats in 2016.

Meanwhile FF crashed the economy and are about to walk back into power.

This is mainly the result of FG perusing pro big business and punishing the poorer in society ably supported by Labour. FG and Labour's ineptitude and arrogance are to blame for much of FF recent support.

sid waddell wrote: »

The Greens will likely return a record seat haul this time despite being FF's coalition partner between 2007 and 2011, standing pretty much idly by as FF brought in the Troika, the bailout and the cuts (and I absolutely accept it wasn't the Greens that crashed the economy, it was FF).
Labour seem to be judged by different standards to everybody else.

The greens and Labour would be much bigger parties now if they had not acted as ineffective mudguards for both FG and FF. Labour are judged by their deeds in government not their words outside it. They deserve to be ignored for their destruction of peoples hopes and their arrogance while imposing austerity.

An Ciarraioch · 03-02-2020 05:30PM

Shelga wrote: »

Help me out- really not sure what way to vote on Saturday. The three main parties don’t do anything for me:

Fianna Fail destroyed the country a decade ago, and still have as their leader a man who was right at the helm of all of that. The amount of people who are happy to overlook this is incomprehensible to me.

Fine Gael- I’ve liked their stance on Brexit but that’s about it. The housing crisis in this country is out of control, and I don’t agree with where we’re going with things like data centres- bending over and giving American conglomerates whatever they want.

Sinn Fein- economically illiterate, and I’ve no interest in a United Ireland. Very worrying links to terrorism- another aspect that I’m amazed so many people are happy to ignore.

Who does that leave? I’m probably going to vote Social Democrats #1, Greens #2, and leave the rest blank. Pretty uninspiring stuff really.

Depends on your constituency, of course - if either Soc Dems and/or Greens have a realistic shot at a seat, choose either/both.

sid waddell · 03-02-2020 05:34PM

Water John wrote: »

It will be interesting as to where SF end up.

I know you meant that in terms of how many seats they'll get this time, but in terms of the longer term and policy positions, I really do think they will end up as another Haughey-era FF - and long term FF are the party they want to wipe out and occupy the ground of.

SF's policy positions have been moderated a lot over the last 15 years or so when they were nakedly anti-EU and anti-business. They currently occupy a sort of populist, nationalistic, quasi-social democratic ground with a fair smattering throughout the party membership of more unreconstructed nationalists who likely have some very conservative leanings. That isn't a million miles off what FF were under Haughey.

I do think there are plenty of good people in SF, but overall I just don't see a real commitment there to being a constructive socialist/social democratic party, what I see is a willingness to say anything they think will win votes, that the popularity of the party is the most important thing, and there is still a sort of cult-like air about them as a party, or at least that's the perception I get. And I say that as somebody who voted for them last time - but not this time.

Mary Lou McDonald started off by flirting with FF, remember.

is_that_so · 03-02-2020 05:38PM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Irish Times have an MRBI poll tonight.

https://twitter.com/fiachkelly/status/1224355664706838531

Saw a comment on the Indo from John Dowling that up to 30 of the constituencies are impossible to predict with the current arithmetic. We've never been in a situation where a seat bonus will not really be available.

An Ciarraioch · 03-02-2020 05:40PM

Mary Lou shall go to the ball!

https://twitter.com/MichealLehane/status/1224365412466544640

An Ciarraioch · 03-02-2020 05:43PM

Also an effective coalition audition on Thursday:

https://twitter.com/MichealLehane/status/1224367332803457026

realdanbreen · 03-02-2020 05:47PM

People in my area have good memories. Paul Quinn beaten to death and not by FF,FG, or labour supporters..

sid waddell · 03-02-2020 05:53PM

cameramonkey wrote: »

Yes it would have been better in the long run to stay out of government both for the country and for Labour. If FG wanted to impose their right wing policies with the results we have now they just should of let them at it. Labour could have formed a strong opposition to fight those policies. By going into government they decimated the party, imposed cruel conditions on the poor and those having difficulty with the downturn. They were not strong enough or ideologically driven enough to get enough out of the coalition, a bit like the Greens with FF.

This is mainly the result of FG perusing pro big business and punishing the poorer in society ably supported by Labour. FG and Labour's ineptitude and arrogance are to blame for much of FF recent support.

The greens and Labour would be much bigger parties now if they had not acted as ineffective mudguards for both FG and FF. Labour are judged by their deeds in government not their words outside it. They deserve to be ignored for their destruction of peoples hopes and their arrogance while imposing austerity.

I'm sorry but how could it have been better "for the country" to have had five years of unchecked Fine Gael government which would have imposed much harsher austerity, rather than have FG's worst impulses at least be checked and moderated by Labour?

The 2011-2016 governmment was one which was never going to be looked back on fondly by anybody because of the circumstances which it had to work with. But it could have been a lot worse than it was, and I'm glad Labour was there to provide that check.

Labour were not miracle workers and never claimed to be. SF effectively do claim that power now. Well guess what, they don't have it or anything remotely close to it.

The Tetrarch · 03-02-2020 05:56PM

A few minutes ago I wrote out my 1 to 13 in my constituency.

FG will tend to suffer the usual party in power dissatisfaction.
FF have done little and people forget the past.
SF have (I think) promised an extra 11 billion spend, and a united Ireland.
Greens are riding the global warming wave.
Labour are chasing a working class who now consider themselves middle class.

It is politics as usual, promise the sun, moon, and stars to get back into power.

Itssoeasy · 03-02-2020 06:02PM

is_that_so wrote: »

Saw a comment on the Indo from John Dowling that up to 30 of the constituencies are impossible to predict with the current arithmetic. We've never been in a situation where a seat bonus will not really be available.

So up to 30 of the 39 are as clear as mud then ? Next Sunday and possibly this day week wil be a mess.

The Tetrarch · 03-02-2020 06:14PM

They had a solid 5% first preferences in my constituency in the 2016 election.
They do great opinion poll, but I expect the ballot box poll to be similar to 2016.
I'll give them my 13th preference.

cameramonkey · 03-02-2020 06:17PM

I though I might put up a strange election video. One of many I think. This is Pascal talking to nobody and standing on a box.

https://twitter.com/Paschald/status/1223606653746057216

cameramonkey · 03-02-2020 06:19PM

https://twitter.com/ciaranahern/status/1223150191085264896

Ciaran Ahern . Strange

boardise · 03-02-2020 06:34PM

The 'Green wave' seems to have run out through the sands of selfishness on the beach of indifference.

Many voters apparently not ready to cough up extra tax for the promise of potential benefits that might accrue to their successors years hence.

is_that_so · 03-02-2020 06:39PM

Itssoeasy wrote: »

So up to 30 of the 39 are as clear as mud then ? Next Sunday and possibly this day week wil be a mess.

First seat or two maybe not but yeah pretty much I reckon. A glance at the details of polls shows you how all over the place support seems to be. Could be later than this day week especially if margins are tight in some of them!

beggars_bush · 03-02-2020 06:46PM

sid waddell wrote: »

SF's candidate is a councillor.

Local elections are not General elections and the ground has shifted a lot since then anyway.

The vast majority of people don't follow politics on a day to day basis and have had no contact with a TD or councillor in the last four years. I do follow politics and even I couldn't tell you off the top of my head who my local councillors are.

People involved in politics at a local level or who follow it on a day to day basis especially at local level are often the worst people to predict what's going to happen. All politics isn't local, there are usually big national swings involved.

The key to predicting is in trying to work out where the line between local votes and national swings lies.

SF are bouncing big time, and if they came within a whisker of taking a seat in LD-WH with 13.7% of the national vote in 2016, anything from 16-17% of the national vote up should comfortably see them over the line this time.

I'm sorry, SF have no councillor in Westmeath or Longford

LeinsterDub · 03-02-2020 06:51PM

boardise wrote: »

The 'Green wave' seems to have run out through the sands of selfishness on the beach of indifference.

Many voters apparently not ready to cough up extra tax for the promise of potential benefits that might accrue to their successors years hence.

This nonsense again? What extra tax?

sid waddell · 03-02-2020 06:57PM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Same story in a whole raft of constituencies up and down the country.

What will end up happening is Sinn Féin candidates in 'heartland' areas will have a big surplus on election day. Big deal, they don't have the running mates in place so the irony is they will probably actually end up electing a second Fianna Fáil TD in these constituencies. I can't see their transfers going to Fine Gael and the smaller party candidates won't have the first preference votes to stay ahead as the counts go on.

It's hard to see where Sinn Féin will actually make decent seat gains. The vote seems to be concentrated in key constituencies where they could do very well in this election, but aren't fielding additional candidates as on a poor day they could split the vote and loose everything.

You have to look at their 2016 vote in each constituency off 13.7% of the national vote and take it from there.

SF have 22 seats now. They should hang onto all or nearly all of those - the second seats in Dublin Mid-West and Louth are only ones that look under real threat. For argument's sake I'll give them those.

The real low hanging fruit in terms of gains are Dublin West and the second seat in Donegal - the ones they screwed up badly last time. Meath West should be low hanging fruit as well as they took a seat there before. So we'll say 25 up to now.

Then we're into the battleground target gains:
These are: Cavan Monaghan second seat, Meath East, Wexford, Longford-Westmeath and Dublin Bay South. All these are very winnable off a small swing. Win all of these and they're onto 30.

After that it gets tough for them but there are possibilities.

Kildare South is one. They finished fifth there in 2016 in a three seater. That's now a four seater but effectively still three because it contains the Ceann Comhairle. Their candidate Patricia Ryan was eliminated on the second last count, about 1900 odd votes behind the FF candidate who got in. That's doable for them.

Kildare North is even tougher but again could be doable. It's a commuter constituency and the sort of place their message might hit home. But Catherine Murphy is there and she should get back, and the Greens will also be challenging. There are two FF TDs and they'll be hard to dislodge. Emmett Stagg for Labour could poll decently even if he won't get in. So a lot of competition.

Mayo is a possibility with not that huge a swing. Last time Rose Conway Walsh was eliminated on the second last count 1700 behind FF's Lisa Chambers who got the last seat. FG might be expected to be weaker this time with Enda Kenny not running.

Tipperary is another I'd be looking at as a possibility but no more. Potential for SF to cannibalise Seamus Healy's vote but they'd need a big boost in first preferences, at least 2-3k - transfers were disastrous last time.

They came close enough in Galway West last time but there are several left candidates jockeying for position this time in the shape of Catherine Connolly, Niall O'Tuathail (Soc Dem) and the Greens. I think they're unlikely to take this one.

Clare is another one like Mayo and Tipp - a possibility but no more. The Green candidate Roisin Garvey has been widely mentioned as a possible surprise here alongside former Labour TD Michael MacNamara now running as an independent. FG scrambling for two but will hardly get it. FF will definitely take two and FG one but there is room for one non FF/FG seat.

So, six possibles/outside chances there. Get all those and it would be 36.

After that, I don't see anything more. Dublin Rathdown, Dun Laoighaire, Cork North West, Cork South West, Limerick County, Roscommon, Galway East, these will not elect a Sinn Fein TD this time anyway, if any of them did I'd be astonished.

I think at best case scenario SF could be looking at a Labour 1992-like performance, but it might fall slightly short of that. 27-33 is the sort of frame I'd have them in right now.

cameramonkey · 03-02-2020 07:00PM

sid waddell wrote: »

I'm sorry but how could it have been better "for the country" to have had five years of unchecked Fine Gael government which would have imposed much harsher austerity, rather than have FG's worst impulses at least be checked and moderated by Labour?.

They could have formed a coherent opposition and held the government to account. They should have strongly apposed the FG impulse to attack the more vulnerable, instead they were an ineffective mudguard.

sid waddell wrote: »

The 2011-2016 governmment was one which was never going to be looked back on fondly by anybody because of the circumstances which it had to work with. But it could have been a lot worse than it was, and I'm glad Labour was there to provide that check.

Unfortunately they facilitated FGs worst impulses and did not check any of them. Some Labour TDs seemed more at home with FG policy and had no regard for the disadvantaged.

sid waddell wrote: »

Labour were not miracle workers and never claimed to be. SF effectively do claim that power now. Well guess what, they don't have it or anything remotely close to it.

Your obvious pro Labour bias is clouding you view. Do you remember all the promises Labour made many of which they broke. They promised the sun, moon and stars but whether through incompetence or lack of political nous they failed abjectly to improve the lot of those they claimed to represent.

is_that_so · 03-02-2020 07:06PM

cameramonkey wrote: »

They could have formed a coherent opposition and held the government to account. They should have strongly apposed the FG impulse to attack the more vulnerable, instead they were an ineffective mudguard.

The traditional biggest parties don't do opposition unless forced into it. It's as it should be. There is nothing more unedifying than politicians announcing they will be in opposition the minute the vote are counted. As Harney said even one day in power is better than a whole term in opposition. You also get nothing done.

mloc123 · 03-02-2020 07:08PM

sid waddell wrote: »

Kildare North is even tougher but again could be doable. It's a commuter constituency and the sort of place their message might hit home. But Catherine Murphy is there and she should get back, and the Greens will also be challenging. There are two FF TDs and they'll be hard to dislodge. Emmett Stagg for Labour could poll decently even if he won't get in. So a lot of competition.

No chance... Not even close IMO

sid waddell · 03-02-2020 07:10PM

cameramonkey wrote: »

They could have formed a coherent opposition and held the government to account. They should have strongly apposed the FG impulse to attack the more vulnerable, instead they were an ineffective mudguard.

Unfortunately they facilitated FGs worst impulses and did not check any of them. Some Labour TDs seemed more at home with FG policy and had no regard for the disadvantaged.

Your obvious pro Labour bias is clouding you view. Do you remember all the promises Labour made many of which they broke. They promised the sun, moon and stars but whether through incompetence or lack of political nous they failed abjectly to improve the lot of those they claimed to represent.

I didn't vote for Labour in 2011 or 2016 and I won't be giving them a number one in 2020. I might give them a number two.

You can do nothing in opposition. You have a say in government.

None of SF, Soc Dems, Solidarity etc. would have done any better than Labour did in that government. That's a fact. They may well have done considerably worse. Being in opposition means you have no responsibility and can say what you like without having to follow through on it.

There isn't a person alive who would have improved the lot of anybody if they were in government from 2011-2016. That's in the realm of miracle working, which doesn't exist. 2011-2016 was about making sure the country did not become ungovernable and didn't descend into complete chaos and that there was a chance to build after that. Labour succeeded in that task.

It is not a government that people will look back fondly on but it did its job and that job was to stabilise things.

cameramonkey · 03-02-2020 07:23PM

sid waddell wrote: »

I didn't vote for Labour in 2011 or 2016 and I won't be giving them a number one in 2020. I might give them a number two.

You can do nothing in opposition. You have a say in government.

None of SF, Soc Dems, Solidarity etc. would have done any better than Labour did in that government. That's a fact.

You dont think they could have handled the water charges debacle better for example? Many labour leaders say that they could have done better on many issues. Its not credible to say its a fact that they couldnt.

is_that_so · 03-02-2020 07:26PM

cameramonkey wrote: »

You dont think they could have handled the water charges debacle better for example? Many labour leaders say that they could have done better on many issues. Its not credible to say its a fact that they couldnt.

That IW mess was a Phil Hogan solo run, and his second cockup in a very short time. Why do you think they sent him to Europe?

Sir Oxman · 03-02-2020 07:31PM

sid waddell wrote: »

The problem for the Social Democrats is that they really have no established party structure nationwide, they were effectively a pop up party like the PDs and the Democratic Left.

The PDs did OK for a while but they relied on high profile candidates with high name recognition, who had made their name mostly in Fianna Fail, rather than any real grass roots party which could continually produce new candidates. There was a similar dynamic at play with the Democratic Left.

After the initial strong burst of enthusiasm in 1987, the PDs continually lost vote share at every election from 1989 on and eventually withered away to nothing because they had nothing coming through from the grass roots, and because they had no real ideological raison d'etre - they came into existence in the first place because of a private FF falling out.

Democratic Left came about because of a falling out in the Worker's Party. Renua came about because of a falling out in Fine Gael. Aointu because off a falling out in Sinn Fein. The Social Democrats exist basically because of a falling out between Roisin Shortall and Labour.

The Social Democrats have good people involved, and a good few candidates I'd be willing to give a high vote to, in some cases a number one vote, if I were in their constituency.

But their two current TDs, Shortall and Byrne, are old and this might be their last Dail term presuming they get re-elected. Donnelly jumped ship very quickly in a way that probably wouldn't have happened had they been a more established party.

They need new candidates to be elected to have any hope of surviving long term, and while there might be a chance of that this time with Gannon and O'Tuathail and possibly O'Callaghan, they will inevitably run into difficulties as a party at some point down the tracks, and when that happens, they will face a battle for their very existence, their lack of ideological difference with Labour will become apparent, and people will ask why the SDs and Labour are two separate parties at all.

The one thing Labour has going for it is its history, tradition and established party structure. They are in extremely choppy waters currently but tradition can sustain a party through that until the wheel begins to turn.

SF's emergence means it will be more difficult for Labour to revitalise itself than before however.

Bang on the money.

Sir Oxman · 03-02-2020 07:34PM

No voting in Tipperary on Saturday due to the death of a candidate this evening, an independent Marese Skehan.

Harry Palmr · 03-02-2020 07:36PM

Beyond what the legislation says why not just continue with the existing number of candidates? What am I missing?

Sir Oxman · 03-02-2020 07:39PM

cameramonkey wrote: »

Yes it would have been better in the long run to stay out of government both for the country and for Labour. If FG wanted to impose their right wing policies with the results we have now they just should of let them at it. Labour could have formed a strong opposition to fight those policies. By going into government they decimated the party, imposed cruel conditions on the poor and those having difficulty with the downturn. They were not strong enough or ideologically driven enough to get enough out of the coalition, a bit like the Greens with FF.

This is mainly the result of FG perusing pro big business and punishing the poorer in society ably supported by Labour. FG and Labour's ineptitude and arrogance are to blame for much of FF recent support.

The greens and Labour would be much bigger parties now if they had not acted as ineffective mudguards for both FG and FF. Labour are judged by their deeds in government not their words outside it. They deserve to be ignored for their destruction of peoples hopes and their arrogance while imposing austerity.

We would have had a Labour opposition from 2011 and who knows a Labour led coalition or Labour govt in 2016 if they had kept away from FG in 2011.

Whatever was going to happen was going to happen in 2011-2016, FG aren't complete idiots and wouldn't/couldn't have tried anything even more harsh than happened.

Sir Oxman · 03-02-2020 07:41PM

sid waddell wrote: »

I know you meant that in terms of how many seats they'll get this time, but in terms of the longer term and policy positions, I really do think they will end up as another Haughey-era FF - and long term FF are the party they want to wipe out and occupy the ground of.

SF's policy positions have been moderated a lot over the last 15 years or so when they were nakedly anti-EU and anti-business. They currently occupy a sort of populist, nationalistic, quasi-social democratic ground with a fair smattering throughout the party membership of more unreconstructed nationalists who likely have some very conservative leanings. That isn't a million miles off what FF were under Haughey.

I do think there are plenty of good people in SF, but overall I just don't see a real commitment there to being a constructive socialist/social democratic party, what I see is a willingness to say anything they think will win votes, that the popularity of the party is the most important thing, and there is still a sort of cult-like air about them as a party, or at least that's the perception I get. And I say that as somebody who voted for them last time - but not this time.

Mary Lou McDonald started off by flirting with FF, remember.

This has been my guiding light in my vew of SF since they were elected to the Dail.
The whiff of FF is more concerning to me than the other hogwash thrown at them.

I'm still mulling my vote precisely because of this.

General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

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