new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

timmyntc · 03-02-2020 05:17PM

PhantomHat wrote: »

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.26.919985v1

The document in question.

Not peer reviewed, and has a criminally low sample size (8 people, 1 of which was Asian).

creditcarder · 03-02-2020 05:22PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Perhaps there is no particular spin on things at this stage.

True.

PhantomHat · 03-02-2020 05:26PM

timmyntc wrote: »

Not peer reviewed, and has a criminally low sample size (8 people, 1 of which was Asian).

Agreed. Its purely hypothesized. Interesting nonetheless.

saabsaab · 03-02-2020 05:32PM

Thank God that the Moscow flight case came back negative.

It still shows how poor our response is. If it had been positive we would have a planeload of potential carriers moving through our population!

With that type of response it is only a matter of time before it happens for real, probably within days now.

Duke of Url · 03-02-2020 05:41PM

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

So if you're not Chinese, this virus won't affect you, is that what is being implied, by your good self?

Sound like you've got a great sci-fi movie script there somewhere, maybe send it to Marvel Comics they're always looking for ideas for comics, although add in some zombie stuff, that's all the rage.

I’m asking you why you think one person is carted off into isolation with Coronavirus symptoms ( Chinese) and Another person with “ Flu Symptoms “ from the UAE who have confirmed cases is allowed to Jog on....

Why do you think this was the case?

HSE were concerned enough to show up to both requests by the Airlines.

To me it shows the inconsistencies within the HSE

circadian · 03-02-2020 05:56PM

Duke of Url wrote: »

I’m asking you why you think one person is carted off into isolation with Coronavirus symptoms ( Chinese) and Another person with “ Flu Symptoms “ from the UAE who have confirmed cases is allowed to Jog on....

Why do you think this was the case?

HSE were concerned enough to show up to both requests by the Airlines.

To me it shows the inconsistencies within the HSE

With the lax behaviour and inconsistencies I'd expect to see our first cases within the next 3 days, I really wouldn't be surprised if the government isn't taking this as seriously as it appears to be.

Duke of Url · 03-02-2020 06:20PM

circadian wrote: »

With the lax behaviour and inconsistencies I'd expect to see our first cases within the next 3 days, I really wouldn't be surprised if the government isn't taking this as seriously as it appears to be.

I just hope that Ireland’s plan is not to use racial profiling to decide who gets tested or not.

During this time, consistency is key in checking everyone with any symptoms where both flu and this new coronavirus overlap.

4068ac1elhodqr · 03-02-2020 06:36PM

Duke of Url wrote: »

I’m asking you why you think one person is carted off into isolation with Coronavirus symptoms ( Chinese) and Another person with “ Flu Symptoms “ from the UAE who have confirmed cases is allowed to Jog on....

Why do you think this was the case?

They came from the epicentre of the basin source of the virus.

You do know there is a reason why medical folks now ask global travellers if you've been near the Hubei provence (where over 11,000) confirmed cases are?
They won't care if you're BruceLee, just back from Greenland (which has zero cases).

Really it's now spread from there to the rest of China now (17,000 total), as expected, so Chinese will (for better or worse) be subject to additional monitoring when traveling.
The next biggest region with cases is Japan, with 20 (twenty, two-zero).

But sure, don't let all that get in the way of a good conspiracy theory.

circadian · 03-02-2020 06:40PM

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

They came from the epicentre of the basin source of the virus.

You do know there is a reason why medical folks now ask global travellers if you've been near the Hubei provence (where over 11,000) confirmed cases are?
They won't care if you're BruceLee, just back from Greenland (which has zero cases).

Really it's now spread from to the rest of China now (17,000 total), so Chinese will (for better or worse) be subject to additional monitoring when traveling.
The next biggest region with cases is Japan, with 20 (twenty, two-zero).

But sure, don't let all that get in the way of a good conspiracy theory.

Ah here you snipped the quote and accuse the poster of conspiracy theories instead of quoting the entire context which is their concerns about the approach of the HSE, which given the fact that they handed out leaflets on a flight with possible infection, is warranted concerns.

4068ac1elhodqr · 03-02-2020 06:46PM

circadian wrote: »

Ah here you snipped the quote and accuse the poster of conspiracy theories instead of quoting the entire context which is their concerns about the approach of the HSE, which given the fact that they handed out leaflets on a flight with possible infection, is warranted concerns.

Can understand and agree with any concerns regarding the HSE, everyone would have concerns.

However this poster has now been running a theory implying this is a 'Chinese only flu'
I.e. It only affects the Chinese. Which is not far off from actually suggesting a synthetic targetted bio-weap.

The fact is within a month or two, somewhere equally populated like India or other 10m+ cities will be in the same situation if flight controls aren't enforced.

03-02-2020 06:48PM

Out of interest, at what point what ye support the closing of schools a la China or Vietnam etc.?

Duke of Url · 03-02-2020 06:49PM

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

Can understand and agree with any concerns regarding the HSE, everyone would have concerns.

However this poster has now been running a theory implying this is a 'Chinese only flu'
I.e. It only affects the Chinese. Which is not far off from actually suggesting a synthetic targetted bio-weap.

The fact is within a month or two, somewhere equally populated like India or other 10m+ cities will be in the same situation if flight controls aren't enforced.

Wtf Lol. Where did you get this from?

circadian · 03-02-2020 06:51PM

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

Can understand and agree with any concerns regarding the HSE, everyone would have concerns.

However this poster has now been running a theory implying this is a 'Chinese only flu'
I.e. It only affects the Chinese. Which is not far off from actually suggesting a synthetic targetted bio-weap.

The fact is within a month or two, somewhere equally populated like India or other 10m+ cities will be in the same situation if flight controls aren't enforced.

I suspect you're confusing that poster with someone else.

ceadaoin. · 03-02-2020 06:51PM

Kaya Prehistoric Landlord wrote: »

Considering cancelling plans to meet a friend next week who will have been through at least two international airports a few days beforehand.
I'm sure the probability of him being infectious with this is tiny, but as a father, the severity of impact could be unspeakable.

I suppose we'll soon see if there are in fact loads of people infected outside China, who just haven't developed symptoms yet.

Around 31 December: First reported symptoms.
January 23: Wuhan locked down.

Taking a two-week incubation period, then I suppose the next few days might be particularly telling. Most people who were infected before the lockdown should be showing symptoms by then - and I suppose the greatest number of infected leaving Wuhan would have been in the last few days before the lockdown.

The incubation period in most of the studied cases has been 5-7 days. If people have been infected before the lockdown they will more than likely be showing symptoms by now.

Also, it does seem like children are less effected by this. In the study of the first 400 or so known deaths, there were none in the under 15 age bracket. Several children have been shown to be asymptomatic while infected. That makes me feel a bit better, as my child is my first concern in all this too.

4068ac1elhodqr · 03-02-2020 06:56PM

circadian wrote: »

I suspect you're confusing that poster with someone else.

Possibly so, there have been some very strange questions on the focus of the Chinese, and previous links to a single poorly referenced study saying it only affects chinese males.

Ah:

SeaBreezes wrote: »

On twitter it seems this virus affects Asian males more, but early days yet. Nobody really knows.

^ "On twitter is seems"... is never going to be good.

Also some silly questions are why Chinese travellers are being profiled. Like it or not, pretty much every state is taking preventative measures.
China as x850 more (verified, even more unconfirmed) cases than any other country.

creditcarder · 03-02-2020 07:05PM

ceadaoin. wrote: »

The incubation period in most of the studied cases has been 5-7 days. If people have been infected before the lockdown they will more than likely be showing symptoms by now.

Also, it does seem like children are less effected by this. In the study of the first 400 or so known deaths, there were none in the under 15 age bracket. Several children have been shown to be asymptomatic while infected. That makes me feel a bit better, as my child is my first concern in all this too.

That's lucky and kind of odd.

circadian · 03-02-2020 07:06PM

creditcarder wrote: »

That's lucky and kind of odd.

Sars was similar and if you look at things like chickenpox it's much more severe in adults. It's not unusual for children to fend off viral infections more successfully than adults.

tom1ie · 03-02-2020 07:12PM

Duke of Url wrote: »

I just hope that Ireland’s plan is not to use racial profiling to decide who gets tested or not.

During this time, consistency is key in checking everyone with any symptoms where both flu and this new coronavirus overlap.

The virus doesn’t give a damn if ur black, white, Asian, European,human, or bat.

wakka12 · 03-02-2020 07:25PM

Surely there are much more cases abroad going undetected? How could such a huge number of people in China with such an infectious disease only cause a handful all over the rest of the world

Duke of Url · 03-02-2020 07:28PM

tom1ie wrote: »

The virus doesn’t give a damn if ur black, white, Asian, European,human, or bat.

No sh!t Sherlock

Below is the what I said that yourself and Accumulator choose to ignore in relation to incoming flights .....

Duke of Url wrote: »

I just hope that Ireland’s plan is not to use racial profiling to decide who gets tested or not.

During this time, consistency is key in checking everyone with any symptoms where both flu and this new coronavirus overlap.

4068ac1elhodqr · 03-02-2020 07:41PM

Duke of Url wrote: »

I just hope that Ireland’s plan is not to use racial profiling to decide who gets tested or not.
During this time, consistency is key in checking everyone with any symptoms where both flu and this new coronavirus overlap.

They will (hopefully) check anyone who's been anywhere near Wuhan/Hubei* within the last 14 days, as they have 11,000+ cases. Guess what? Some of those may well be Chinese.

Now if you're Chinese and flying in from the Antartic after a 3mth stay, guess what, that flight manifestation, and background check will deem you not be of any risk whatsoever.

* However the issue now is that other citiies and regions outside of Wuhan are also getting closed down e.g. there are x5 districts with circa 500 confirmed cases (each), outside of the epicentre of Hubei.

The way things are going, everyone (of any race) who's been in China (anywhere mainland) within at least 14days could likely get tested.

If the Chinese themselves wanted to point fingers, perhaps their own leaders would be a start: The Politburo Standing Committe admitted to "shortcomings and deficiencies" in the country's response to the deadly coronavirus outbreak.
A crackdown on wildlife markets (where the virus emerged) has been ordered.

saabsaab · 03-02-2020 07:54PM

wakka12 wrote: »

Surely there are much more cases abroad going undetected? How could such a huge number of people in China with such an infectious disease only cause a handful all over the rest of the world

That is a worry but perhaps it is because the likely cases are being picked out quickly, knowing their origin. and 'sat' on before they can pass it on?

bodhrandude · 03-02-2020 07:58PM

A question I wanted to throw out there, what about packages from Aliexpress, could they contain the virus? I know there have been reports that the virus is weak on solid flat surfaces, just curious though.

saabsaab · 03-02-2020 08:05PM

bodhrandude wrote: »

A question I wanted to throw out there, what about packages from Aliexpress, could they contain the virus? I know there have been reports that the virus is weak on solid flat surfaces, just curious though.

From what I have read the virus won't survive more than 24 hours outside of a living host. So allowing for travel time there would be zero risk.

PokeHerKing · 03-02-2020 08:10PM

bodhrandude wrote: »

A question I wanted to throw out there, what about packages from Aliexpress, could they contain the virus? I know there have been reports that the virus is weak on solid flat surfaces, just curious though.

Up to 5 days in the right conditions according to "some experts". I certainly wouldn't be risking it. I mean that's pretty much the Simpsons prediction.

Duke of Url · 03-02-2020 08:13PM

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

They will (hopefully) check anyone who's been anywhere near Wuhan/Hubei* within the last 14 days, as they have 11,000+ cases. Guess what? Some of those may well be Chinese.

Now if you're Chinese and flying in from the Antartic after a 3mth stay, guess what, that flight manifestation, and background check will deem you not be of any risk whatsoever.

* However the issue now is that other citiies and regions outside of Wuhan are also getting closed down e.g. there are x5 districts with circa 500 confirmed cases (each), outside of the epicentre of Hubei.

The way things are going, everyone (of any race) who's been in China (anywhere mainland) within at least 14days could likely get tested.

If the Chinese themselves wanted to point fingers, perhaps their own leaders would be a start: The Politburo Standing Committe admitted to "shortcomings and deficiencies" in the country's response to the deadly coronavirus outbreak.
A crackdown on wildlife markets (where the virus emerged) has been ordered.

Again, I do not know why you think I am highlighting this virus as a Chinese thing.

This virus has such a long incubation period that at this stage there could be hundreds if not 1000s of cases outside of China. Every one person who contracted This virus has the chance to infect 2.67 people more. With so many people getting connecting flights around the world nobody knows who’s sitting beside who and who that person was sitting beside on the previous flight.

I believe we have a right to know what the HSE are making there Judgements on if One person is Quarantined coming in from Moscow and other from a UAE flight is free to go yet both are showing symptoms that are consistent with both flu and this virus.

03-02-2020 08:13PM

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

A 'handful' in the US & Europe, and one in UAE.

Besides, not many folks in Beijing fly back and fourth to Timbuktu.
again... Conspiracy Theories... ->

There is huge Chinese industry in African countries where a lot of infrastructure is being put in place by a Chinese workforce, so it does very much stand to be affected.

4068ac1elhodqr · 03-02-2020 08:26PM

Duke of Url wrote: »

Again, I do not know why you think I am highlighting this virus as a Chinese thing.

You're not, and that's the problem.
It is (like it or not), 'a Chinese thing' for the time being, and likely the next month or two.

Duke of Url wrote: »

This virus has such a long incubation period that at this stage there could be hundreds if not 1000s of cases outside of China.

1-14 days max (maybe an average 5-7days) really isn't long.
Nearly 100 tests have been done across the uk in the last two weeks, only one, maybe two, were positve (recent arrivals from China).

Duke of Url wrote: »

... With so many people getting connecting flights around the world

Not many people getting flights out of China this week, nor last. Many major airlines simply refuse to operate from there now.

Duke of Url wrote: »

I believe we have a right to know what the HSE are making there Judgements on if One person is Quarantined coming in from Moscow and other from a UAE flight is free to go yet both are showing symptoms that are consistent with both flu and this virus.

Unless you have the background specifics of each individual, it's hard to know. Did the Moscow passenger come from China beforehand? UAE only has 1 case to to date, hardly a risk if came directly from there.

4068ac1elhodqr · 03-02-2020 08:30PM

Deleted User wrote: »

There is huge Chinese industry in African countries where a lot of infrastructure is being put in place by a Chinese workforce, so it does very much stand to be affected.

Agree, however the main labour workforce would likely be doing fixed contracts e.g. 4wks on, 4wks off, perhaps even longer (6mths on/off) flying back every week would hurt the paypacket.

wakka12 · 03-02-2020 08:35PM

saabsaab wrote: »

That is a worry but perhaps it is because the likely cases are being picked out quickly, knowing their origin. and 'sat' on before they can pass it on?

Yes but even if they are picked out quickly, there are just so few examples. There are so many reports of infected Chinese people who were tourists in other countries for days at a time before their infection was detected or they went to hospital and they apparently didnt infect hardly a single other person? It seems impossible given how infectious it appears to be in China

new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

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