new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

02-02-2020 03:29PM

You'd swear it was in the water in Wuhan or something. Do pandemics usually have such a strong focal point? I've no idea.

Dante7 · 02-02-2020 03:32PM

Cody montana wrote: »

Show me how coronavirus is 2000 times more lethal and how it’s twice as contagious.

If I do go to the trouble of providing the stats, will you admit that you are wrong and have been talking through your hoop?

PhantomHat · 02-02-2020 03:32PM

I'm listening to The Weekend on One from Sunday 2 February on RTÉ Radio 1 http://rte.ie/r.html?rii=9_11149056_31404_02-02-2020_

That Dr. Lamert interview from earlier

He appears about 5 mins after the hour mark

Call Me Jimmy · 02-02-2020 03:33PM

Deleted User wrote: »

You'd swear it was in the water in Wuhan or something. Do pandemics usually have such a strong focal point? I've no idea.

My take is the way this has grown there is a consequence of the suppression of information at that early stage. There was much longer period where it got to spread in a massively dense population without ANY awareness or preventative action. I think that's what's most unusual and only possible in a system that can silence health workers trying to sound the alarm.

This is it · 02-02-2020 03:35PM

Cody montana wrote: »

I do.

Haha, good lad

I needed a laugh.

02-02-2020 03:38PM

Call Me Jimmy wrote: »

My take is the way this has grown there is a consequence of the suppression of information at that early stage. There was much longer period where it got to spread in a massively dense population without ANY awareness or preventative action. I think that's what's most unusual and only possible in a system that can silence health workers trying to sound the alarm.

At what point does it get analysed and it be found that it's something new, though? For quite a while, it would just be thought of as the flu surely. Then as cases start to really ramp up, it becomes noticeable. Is it suppression of knowledge or lack of it?

Scuid Mhór · 02-02-2020 03:39PM

kaymin wrote: »

Irish times is now reporting on last night's flight:

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/passenger-on-moscow-dublin-flight-is-tested-for-coronavirus-1.4159243

"The aim of these plans in Ireland at this point in the response to novel Coronavirus is one of containment. This seeks to maximise the chance of a case being detected should one arise here and to prevent it being transmitted to another person.”

“The activation of protocols that achieve this is a core and expected feature of our preparedness and ongoing response. The protocol always ensures that the people involved are fully communicated with and are aware of what is going on. Their activation is an indication of the quality and responsiveness of the agencies and the staff who carry them out in the health services, the emergency service and at the ports of entry into Ireland.”

We had a good run.

mikhail · 02-02-2020 03:39PM

Dante7 wrote: »

You nearly have to admire the level of stupidity in posts like this. The willful ignorance in completely ignoring facts from experts. The answer to your question is that seasonal flu kills about 60,000 people each year. Flu has a mortality rate of <0.1%. Coronavirus is 2000 times more lethal and at least twice as contagious. Now do you understand?

2000 times more lethal than 0.1% is 200%. The number you're looking for is something like 20 times more lethal.

Dante7 wrote: »

If I do go to the trouble of providing the stats, will you admit that you are wrong and have been talking through your hoop?

If you can prove that a virus kills two people for every one infected (which is what a 200% mortality rate means), you're not only going to get an apology from the other guy, I'll nominate you for a Nobel prize.

Dante7 wrote: »

You nearly have to admire the level of stupidity in posts like this.

I just thought I'd quote this one again for some reason.

PokeHerKing · 02-02-2020 03:40PM

creditcarder wrote: »

I'm a climate change denier and it is actually kind of funny. I am more worried about this even though the climate change could be worse.

Hurricane during hurricane season = climate change.

City of 12 million people on virtual lockdown with a disease that's killing people and rates of infection are doubling by the day.

Pretty obvious one which should be more worrying to the average punter.

kaymin · 02-02-2020 03:42PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

At what point does it get analysed and it be found that it's something new, though? For quite a while, it would just be thought of as the flu surely. Is it suppression of knowledge or lack of it?

It first emerged when a doctor isolated a patient he suspected of having SARS - turns out he had coronavurus. He publicised it in some medical forums but was told to shut it by municipal police because he was causing social unrest . The Chinese supreme Court have since criticised the police. So there was suppression at the early stages though possibly not systemic.

02-02-2020 03:43PM

mikhail wrote: »

2000 times more lethal than 0.1% is 200%. The number you're looking for is something like 20 times more lethal.

Virus Death Rate
Wuhan Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
2%*

SARS
10%

MERS
34%

Swine Flu
0.02%

Seasonal Flu
<0.01%

givyjoe · 02-02-2020 03:45PM

Cody montana wrote: »

I do.
This will fizzle out.
Mark my words.

You do? Do tell us more. What actions will lead to this fizzling out, because exactly the opposite is currently happening.

Yurt2 · 02-02-2020 03:45PM

kaymin wrote: »

The appeal to Europe for supplies was made by China yesterday.

Also, according to the article I linked:

Even as unrest was growing in virus-hit regions, China has maintained that the shortage of medical supplies was a result of the Lunar New Year holidays.

China had requested assistance with medical material and detection kits from neighbouring Japan and Korea from last week. A Chinese acquaintance of mine has said that Japan has halted Chinese immigrants in Japan from posting masks to China (don't know how true this is). As the problem grows in scale, neighbors with the ability to help will inevitably start looking to protect their own needs and capacity to respond.

thecretinhop · 02-02-2020 03:47PM

Thailand claims coronavirus break-through: Patient now 'disease-free'
Thailand claims coronavirus break-through: Patient now 'disease-free' https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7957889/Thai-medics-claim-coronavirus-break-Patient-declared-disease-free-48-hours.html?ito=native_share_article-masthead

mikhail · 02-02-2020 03:49PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Virus Death Rate
Wuhan Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
2%*

SARS
10%

MERS
34%

Swine Flu
0.02%

Seasonal Flu
<0.01%

Thanks for the data, though I'd appreciate a source. You've quoted 10 times lower for flu than the guy I was replying to, which still leaves his maths out by an order of magnitude.

thecretinhop · 02-02-2020 03:49PM

this is so fkd up its unreal, how can a new natural corana virus, be suddenly treated with flu and hiv drugs??

Call Me Jimmy · 02-02-2020 03:50PM

I think we've seen a couple of cases like that, including the first US case?

Dante7 · 02-02-2020 03:51PM

mikhail wrote: »

2000 times more lethal than 0.1% is 200%. The number you're looking for is something like 20 times more lethal.

If you can prove that a virus kills two people for every one infected (which is what a 200% mortality rate means), you're not only going to get an apology from the other guy, I'll nominate you for a Nobel prize.

I just thought I'd quote this one again for some reason.

Apologies, typo. Zero in wrong place. Seasonal flu mortality is <0.01%. 2019-nCoV is currently estimated at 2%, which is a 200 times greater. R0 for flu averages around 1.3 compared to current estimates for nCoV of between 2.5 and 4.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

02-02-2020 03:51PM

mikhail wrote: »

Thanks for the data, though I'd appreciate a source. You've quoted 10 times lower for flu than the guy I was replying to, which still leaves his maths out by an order of magnitude.

I found it here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

But yeah, I just saw 0.13% elsewhere when I googled it again. That link has sources at the bottom.

mikhail · 02-02-2020 03:53PM

thecretinhop wrote: »

this is so fkd up its unreal, how can a new natural corana virus, be suddenly treated with flu and hiv drugs??

If you met a guy who was highly allergic to nuts, and so was his cousin, would that be surprising to you?

Cody montana · 02-02-2020 03:55PM

Dante7 wrote: »

If I do go to the trouble of providing the stats, will you admit that you are wrong and have been talking through your hoop?

There will be no global pandemic.
People are recovering from this.
It’s now February.

Ralphyroo · 02-02-2020 03:58PM

thecretinhop wrote: »

this is so fkd up its unreal, how can a new natural corana virus, be suddenly treated with flu and hiv drugs??

They're both anti viral drugs. And the coronavirus is a virus. Not really that surprising

4068ac1elhodqr · 02-02-2020 04:02PM

Cody montana wrote: »

There will be no global pandemic.
People are recovering from this.
It’s now February.

You'd better let the WHO people know, who called it a 'global {pandemic} emergency' just a matter of days ago.

And just 2 weeks ago this map was mostly white:
There is a chance of stopping it (outside of China only <3mth). But any country that gets into the 000's of cases (not even thousands) will have a bit of 'situation' to say the least.

24194694-7957645-As_of_Sunday_morning_more_than_14_300_people_have_been_infected_-a-202_1580633049449.jpg

24194694-7957645-As_of_Sunday_morning_more_than_14_300_people_have_been_infected_-a-202_1580633049449.jpg

Needless to say this map (from this morning) is already behind by a few hundred, figures wise.

RebelButtMunch · 02-02-2020 04:09PM

No new cases in Singapore but still 10k Chinese workers to return. Source straits times

02-02-2020 04:10PM

Call Me Jimmy wrote: »

My take is the way this has grown there is a consequence of the suppression of information at that early stage. There was much longer period where it got to spread in a massively dense population without ANY awareness or preventative action. I think that's what's most unusual and only possible in a system that can silence health workers trying to sound the alarm.

The first known case was in early December - but whether this was recognised at the time as significant or only in retrospect, I don't know. But a Doctor reported it in an online chat forum on 30th December. By that stage there was within-hospital quarantine. The doctor was detained by police and forced to sign a confession admitting "wrongdoing". Maybe this was only the local authorities acting - but the doctors report was picked up and amplified. The websites were then censored - surely evidence of central authorities acting? When the authorities first closed the food market they still did not curb/ban the wildlife trade more generally. Apparently for an upcoming Communist Party Congress the priority was "order".

Of course, when the disease got out of hand and the did act the mayor and the local police (who had detained and silenced the first doctor to publically report it) were fingered for blame.

"In those weeks, the authorities silenced doctors and others for raising red flags. They played down the dangers to the public, leaving the city’s 11 million residents unaware they should protect themselves. They closed a food market where the virus was believed to have started, but didn’t broadly curb the wildlife trade. Even as cases climbed, officials declared repeatedly that there had likely been no more infections.

By not moving aggressively to warn the public and medical professionals, public health experts say, the Chinese government lost one of its best chances to keep the disease from becoming an epidemic.

“This was an issue of inaction,” said Yanzhong Huang, a senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations who studies China. “There was no action in Wuhan from the local health department to alert people to the threat.”

The first case, the details of which are limited and the specific date unknown, was in early December. By the time the authorities galvanized into action on Jan. 20, the disease had grown into a formidable threat."

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/01/world/asia/china-coronavirus.html

givyjoe · 02-02-2020 04:13PM

Cody montana wrote: »

There will be no global pandemic.
People are recovering from this.
It’s now February.

Would you care to back up any of your statements with actual sources with stats?

Theres an almost equal number of deaths versus 'cures' in China. An alarmingly low cure rate considering the level of infections.

https://news.qq.com//zt2020/page/feiyan.htm?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf#news

Cody montana · 02-02-2020 04:21PM

givyjoe wrote: »

Would you care to back up any of your statements with actual sources with stats?

Theres an almost equal number of deaths versus 'cures' in China. An alarmingly low cure rate considering the level of infections.

https://news.qq.com//zt2020/page/feiyan.htm?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf#news

Population of earth: 7.5 billion
Deaths: 305

You are welcome.

bmcc10 · 02-02-2020 04:22PM

Yurt! wrote: »

China had requested assistance with medical material and detection kits from neighbouring Japan and Korea from last week. A Chinese acquaintance of mine has said that Japan has halted Chinese immigrants in Japan from posting masks to China (don't know how true this is). As the problem grows in scale, neighbors with the ability to help will inevitably start looking to protect their own needs and capacity to respond.

Ye they where clearing the shelves it is hard to find masks anywhere in Japan atm and a lot of places have put a limit on how much you can buy.

Bubbaclaus · 02-02-2020 04:23PM

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/30/health/flu-deadly-virus-15-million-infected-trnd/index.html

Can anyone point me to the hysterical thread about this virus? 180,000 hospitalised and 10,000 dead in the US this season alone.

gozunda · 02-02-2020 04:23PM

Cody montana wrote: »

Can you imagine a whole plane of people being isolated because someone is suspected of having the flu?

How many people die due to the flu each year?

Indeed.

https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/coronavirus-china-wuhan-outbreak-deaths/

new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

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