General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

Harry Palmr · 31-01-2020 04:47PM

Every government leaves behind an in-tray which becomes the next admins starting point, the better question to ask is how many governments haven't created a new crisis for the next crowd to deal with?

Fianna Fial, like the Republicans in the USA are quite good at leaving a fiscal bomb under the desk when they vacate office.

CrankyHaus · 31-01-2020 04:55PM

I think with this government, despite its undeniable achievements, the costly infrastructural failures in health, housing and transport are too great to break out the champagne.

FrancieBrady · 31-01-2020 05:04PM

NIMAN wrote: »

I think that is true in terms of truth on the internet i.e. not true at all.

I'd say it's a bit of satire myself.

LoughNeagh2017 · 31-01-2020 05:40PM

My misanthropic tendencies prevent me from voting. I imagine how the politician already has such a better life than me and I don't want to play a part in their success and wealth.

is_that_so · 31-01-2020 07:55PM

L1011 wrote: »

Rainbow 94-97. Economy in a decent condition, significant improvements in service provision and rights achieved during office. Dumped out by voters who wanted tax cuts.

Actually it was Spring and Labour they dumped. He caused conniptions in Labour rank and file with that Reynolds deal.

WoollyRedHat · 31-01-2020 10:48PM

Fritzbox wrote: »

What mess are you suggesting FG are leaving behind? Ireland's economy grew by 5.6% last year - do you have any idea how well that compares with the rest of Europe? Hell, even the Chinese economy "only" grew by 6.1% last year.

https://www.newstalk.com/news/irish-economy-see-highest-growth-eu-2019-922452

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/17/china-gdp-for-full-year-and-q4-2019.html

What's the point of pointing to economic growth as a performance marker when the government is so slow in investment of country in terms of infrastructure, transport, housing etc. when our economy is doing well. Key issue with successive governments is inertia while things either stay still or regress. Transportation in this country is getting progressively worse due to lack of implementation , lack of vision and poor planning

By the way, how much of that growth is attributable to massive FDI inflating the numbers. Statistics can be misleading. Better to have a balanced economy that is growing due to our own industries in a sustainable manner, rather than being heavily reliant on foreign investment that could reduce significantly in medium to long term, leaving the country financially exposed if we have nothing else to fall back on.

An Ciarraioch · 01-02-2020 12:38AM

https://twitter.com/davidcochrane/status/1223386066662645760

cameramonkey · 01-02-2020 12:45AM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

https://twitter.com/davidcochrane/status/1223386066662645760

Heard about that from a Fine Gael politician tonight. He said much the same SF in the lead. He said that his canvasing teams are getting a very negative response with lots of voters saying they will vote SF. It is not a strong SF area, very rural Leinster. Have to wait and see the poll to really judge.

L1011 · 01-02-2020 12:47AM

cameramonkey wrote: »

Heard about that from a Fine Gael politician tonight. He said much the same SF in the lead. He said that his canvasing teams are getting a very negative response with lots of voters saying they will vote SF. It is not a strong SF area, very rural Leinster.

The area - only area really - showing very high SF in the other polls was non-Dublin Leinster. So there could be some localised support going on.

cameramonkey · 01-02-2020 12:51AM

L1011 wrote: »

The area - only area really - showing very high SF in the other polls was non-Dublin Leinster. So there could be some localised support going on.

I would be surprised if SF get over 17-20%. But there are a lot of people who feel disenfranchised out there.The big issues of the election have been housing, health and pensions and SF have been playing a good game. The economy though strong does not seem to be helping FG. Its south Leinster not border Leinster.

Kh1993 · 01-02-2020 01:11AM

FF 23, SF 21 and FG 19 in Times Ireland poll. How reputable Panelbase is remains to be seen.

Greens on 10, and interestingly enough Labour on 5 alongside SDs and PBP on 5 too

Rjd2 · 01-02-2020 01:12AM

Kh1993 wrote: »

FF 23, SF 21 and FG 19 in Times Ireland poll. How reputable Panelbase is remains to be seen.

don't they have a good reputation from their UK work?

FrancieBrady · 01-02-2020 01:21AM

Kh1993 wrote: »

FF 23, SF 21 and FG 19 in Times Ireland poll. How reputable Panelbase is remains to be seen.

Greens on 10, and interestingly enough Labour on 5 alongside SDs and PBP on 5 too

Have they polled here before?

antimatterx · 01-02-2020 01:24AM

Kh1993 wrote: »

FF 23, SF 21 and FG 19 in Times Ireland poll. How reputable Panelbase is remains to be seen.

Greens on 10, and interestingly enough Labour on 5 alongside SDs and PBP on 5 too

Oh my sweet ****ing God. How are FG third?

Kh1993 · 01-02-2020 01:25AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Have they polled here before?

No, first Irish poll. Seem to have been accurate with UK GE.

FrancieBrady · 01-02-2020 01:30AM

antimatterx wrote: »

Oh my sweet ****ing God. How are FG third?

I think their supporters here were expecting it. I thought they'd have a bit of a bounce from the various debates...not so. Falling below 20 will set teeth on edge and bells ringing. Interesting week ahead.

Fann Linn · 01-02-2020 01:31AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I think their supporters here were expecting it. I thought they'd have a bit of a bounce from the various debates...not so. Falling below 20 will set teeth on edge and bells ringing. Interesting week ahead.

Time to ditch Leo, Harris and Murphy.

cameramonkey · 01-02-2020 01:33AM

antimatterx wrote: »

Oh my sweet ****ing God. How are FG third?

They ignored the housing and heath crisis. This is enough to swing many voters.

gmisk · 01-02-2020 01:33AM

Fann Linn wrote: »

Time to ditch Leo, Harris and Murphy.

Send up the Coveney bat signal! And defrost Richard Bruton!

FrancieBrady · 01-02-2020 01:38AM

gmisk wrote: »

Send up the Coveney bat signal! And defrost Richard Bruton!

Coveney is too much FG on home issues, brilliant on Brexit. He gets too easily embattled on the issues here and goes full on arrogant FG. Bruton is too bland to send out at 19%.

Not sure if they can pull this out of the fire unless something comes out of left field (or is brought put of left field if you get my drift). A week, as they say, is a long time in politics.

gmisk · 01-02-2020 01:42AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Coveney is too much FG on home issues, brilliant on Brexit. He gets too easily embattled on the issues here and goes full on arrogant FG. Bruton is too bland to send out at 19%.

Not sure if they can pull this out of the fire unless something comes out of left field (or is brought put of left field if you get my drift). A week, as they say, is a long time in politics.

Your probably right but I don't think they have many more cards to play.
I'd say they will position Coveney to take over if result is a total disaster

Snow Garden · 01-02-2020 01:43AM

Why are all parties promising to pile more money into the HSE? Do they not realise how wasteful they are?
It needs root and branch reform. The health budget is not the problem.

FrancieBrady · 01-02-2020 01:44AM

gmisk wrote: »

Your probably right but I don't think they have many more cards to play.
I'd say they will position Coveney to take over if result is a total disaster

They are heading into wipeout territory, but the really interesting thing is FF are not surging ahead.

Snow Garden · 01-02-2020 01:45AM

I think FF and FG will finish neck and neck in terms of seats.

FrancieBrady · 01-02-2020 01:46AM

Snow Garden wrote: »

Why are all parties promising to pile more money into the HSE? Do they not realise how wasteful they are?
It needs root and branch reform. The health budget is not the problem.

I couldn't watch it properly but Brian Dobson seemed to be tying Martin up in knots on his health plans this evening. Lots of hand waving going on.

votecounts · 01-02-2020 02:07AM

In reality, SF will get about 15% on election day which should get them about 20 seats. They should be happy with that with big name retirements, people leaving the party, etc.
Although it makes me ill to think about it, I fully expect FF to be the leading party by quite a margin. Labour, Greens and SD seem their preferred coalition option.

KevRossi · 01-02-2020 02:14AM

antimatterx wrote: »

Oh my sweet ****ing God. How are FG third?

They were handed the country on a golden plate in early 2011 with a mandate to end cronyism, nepotism, golden circles, and to introduce a new form of politics in Ireland. They could have totally reformed the bloated HSE, chased parasitic ambulance chasing solicitors out of the legal system and made sure that when NAMA sold out state owned houses and land that it was sold on our conditions.

Instead they took the attitude that it was their time at the feeding trough after 14 years of FF and they carried on with business as usual. Any chance they had to shoot themselves in the foot they did, then reloaded, and shot themselves in the other foot for good measure. Nothing from the Mahon tribunal recommendations was ever introduced here, even though they spent years making political hay out of that tribunal.

They deserve everything they are getting. A clueless bunch of arrogant idiots.

(And I'm giving neither FF nor SF anywhere near a nr.1 in the polls before anyone starts)

votecounts · 01-02-2020 02:19AM

New politics was the buzz word for a while, but in reality FG were always going to feed at the through. Maria Bailey, Alan Farrell and Dara Murphy certainly didn't help them either.

theguzman · 01-02-2020 02:20AM

KevRossi wrote: »

They were handed the country on a golden plate in early 2011 with a mandate to end cronyism, nepotism, golden circles, and to introduce a new form of politics in Ireland. They could have totally reformed the bloated HSE, chased parasitic ambulance chasing solicitors out of the legal system and made sure that when NAMA sold out state owned houses and land that it was sold on our conditions.

Instead they took the attitude that it was their time at the feeding trough after 14 years of FF and they carried on with business as usual. Any chance they had to shoot themselves in the foot they did, then reloaded, and shot themselves in the other foot for good measure. Nothing from the Mahon tribunal recommendations was ever introduced here, even though they spent years making political hay out of that tribunal.

They deserve everything they are getting. A clueless bunch of arrogant idiots.

(And I'm giving neither FF nor SF anywhere near a nr.1 in the polls before anyone starts)

Fine Gael were in Coalition with Labour from 2011-2016, they couldn't touch the HSE or Public Sector thanks to Labour. It was a terrible shame that FG didn;t get an overall majority in 2011 and unleash Thatcherite cuts onto the bloated public and civil sector and eradicate the unions and HSE properly.

FrancieBrady · 01-02-2020 02:21AM

votecounts wrote: »

New politics was the buzz word for a while, but in reality FG were always going to feed at the through. Maria Bailey, Alan Farrell and Dara Murphy certainly didn't help them either.

What? Why did it have to be the 'reality'? Have you given up?

General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

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