new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

Ulysses Gaze · 27-01-2020 12:20PM

Duke of Url wrote: »

What I would like to get an update on is the confirmed cases.

The media are acting like the 1950 people in China are on life support with a killer virus and we’re all getting wiped out.

Meanwhile the 3 positive results in France:

The head of France’s health department, Jerome Salomon, said Saturday evening that all three are doing “very well.”

Then we turn to the 4 positive results in the US:

The patient has been hospitalized, but no other details about that case were made available.

The other three patients remain hospitalized in isolation, but are said to be doing well.

That's all well and good, but even with first world medical care, how would a French city cope with 2,000 cases of this? How would Dublin cope with 2k-3k cases like this?

harpstilidie · 27-01-2020 12:49PM

Was hoping to visit China on holiday in the summer. Nothing booked yet thankfully.

Be mad to even consider it now would I?

IAMAMORON · 27-01-2020 12:54PM

harpstilidie wrote: »

Was hoping to visit China on holiday in the summer. Nothing booked yet thankfully.

Be mad to even consider it now would I?

I honestly think you would be mad not to.

Be careful eating rice in takeaways, it can be an awful source of food poison, particularly in the summertime.

There will be a lot more things on the news by then.

4068ac1elhodqr · 27-01-2020 12:55PM

Real world indicators to this may be important signposts, this morning shows:
FTSE, CAC, DAX, RTS have all opened (at least) 2% negative. Oil drops to $58. But BTC & Gold up.

VinLieger · 27-01-2020 12:55PM

harpstilidie wrote: »

Was hoping to visit China on holiday in the summer. Nothing booked yet thankfully.

Be mad to even consider it now would I?

For the moment yeah, just wait a week or two and it will be a lot clearer how bad or not this could be.

Yurt2 · 27-01-2020 12:55PM

harpstilidie wrote: »

Was hoping to visit China on holiday in the summer. Nothing booked yet thankfully.

Be mad to even consider it now would I?

It will probably be all played out by summertime you'd imagine. Thinking cynically, you'll be in a sweet spot to purchase rock-bottom return flights to China in a month or so.

VinLieger · 27-01-2020 12:57PM

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

Real world indicators to this may be important signposts, this morning shows:
FTSE, CAC, DAX, RTS have all opened (at least) 2% negative. Oil drops to $58. But BTC & Gold up.

TBH all that show is that there's still too many unknowns about whats happening, in times of uncertainty things like Gold and now BTC apparently will of course spike but its not a signal of anything significant yet.

Nijmegen · 27-01-2020 01:04PM

"Chinese student in isolation in Waterford amid coronavirus fears" (Irish Examiner).

Likely nothing to worry about in this case until you actually get a test back, but it is worth noting that the third level institutions have just come back into term and do nowadays have a lot of students from China who will have gone home for the holidays.

27-01-2020 01:08PM

Scientists create hybrid flu that can go airborne
H5N1 virus with genes from H1N1 can spread through the air between mammals.

A team of scientists in China has created hybrid viruses by mixing genes from H5N1 and the H1N1 strain behind the 2009 swine flu pandemic
“If these mammalian-transmissible H5N1 viruses are generated in nature, a pandemic will be highly likely,” says Hualan Chen, a virologist at the Harbin Veterinary Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, who led the study.

Article Date MAY 2013
https://www.nature.com/news/scientists-create-hybrid-flu-that-can-go-airborne-1.12925 2

Inside the Chinese lab poised to study world's most dangerous pathogens
Maximum-security biolab is part of plan to build network of BSL-4 facilities across China.

2017
https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the-chinese-lab-poised-to-study-world-s-most-dangerous-pathogens-1.21487 2

and in 2019.........

LabLinks: Infection and Immunity
Monday, September 23, 2019
7:30 a.m.–6:00 p.m.

This event will take place at
Wanda Realm Hotel Wuhan
3rd Floor Conference Hall
105 Donghu Rd
Wuchang District
Wuhan City
Hubei Province
430077 China

Keynote Speakers

Dr. Hong-Bing Shu, Professor and Vice President, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China
Dr. Hualan Chen, Professor, Harbin Veterinary Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS), Harbin, China

http://info.cell.com/lablinks-infection-and-immunity

Ripe for conspiracy theories!!

also in Canada

University severs ties with two researchers who were escorted out of National Microbiology Lab

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/lab-researcher-rcmp-national-microbiology-lab-1.5212851

In 2009, a former researcher at the lab was convicted of trying to smuggle genetic material from the Ebola virus across the Manitoba-North Dakota border.

Konan Michel Yao had 22 vials of the substance in the trunk of his car when he tried to cross the border.

The vials were wrapped in aluminum foil inside a glove and packaged in a plastic bag, along with electrical wires.

Yao told officers he was taking the vials to his new job with the National Institutes of Health at the Biodefense Research Laboratory in Bethesda, Md., because he didn't want to start from scratch in his research.

Yao was sentenced to 17 days in jail, which he had already served, and fined $500

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/winnipeg-microbiology-lab-rcmp-investigation-1.5209670

now whether that was more sinister or just idiotic it shows that security among these researchers is terrible. Not impossible for this to be something from a lab that escaped.

27-01-2020 01:10PM

Nijmegen wrote: »

"Chinese student in isolation in Waterford amid coronavirus fears" (Irish Examiner).

Likely nothing to worry about in this case until you actually get a test back, but it is worth noting that the third level institutions have just come back into term and do nowadays have a lot of students from China who will have gone home for the holidays.

I dont understand why there isnt a quarantine period now for all entering Europe from infected areas

27-01-2020 01:12PM

Nijmegen wrote: »

"Chinese student in isolation in Waterford amid coronavirus fears" (Irish Examiner).

Likely nothing to worry about in this case until you actually get a test back, but it is worth noting that the third level institutions have just come back into term and do nowadays have a lot of students from China who will have gone home for the holidays.

No signs of illness. That's good at least.

Duke of Url · 27-01-2020 01:15PM

Deleted User wrote: »

I dont understand why there isnt a quarantine period now for all entering Europe from infected areas

So the EU would close its borders to France, US, Australia and so on?

27-01-2020 01:15PM

My university has strongly suggested that I do not return to China for the next semester (24th Feb), and students have been told not to return early. This is a government warning, so they're likely expecting the effects of this virus to continue for some time yet.

4068ac1elhodqr · 27-01-2020 01:16PM

VinLieger wrote: »

TBH all that show is that there's still too many unknowns about whats happening, in times of uncertainty things like Gold and now BTC apparently will of course spike but its not a signal of anything significant yet.

Gold of course is the defacto safe haven, but any (day-on-day) 2%+ type drop will compound itself over time if not adjusted.
Many investors have Chinese based investment funds/trusts as part of their portfolios. Airlines, travel and oil producers most at risk.

27-01-2020 01:24PM

Duke of Url wrote: »

So the EU would close its borders to France, US, Australia and so on?

What's wrong with quarantine?

Duke of Url · 27-01-2020 01:37PM

Deleted User wrote: »

What's wrong with quarantine?

Nothing wrong with quarantine

I’m highlighting that the France, US, Australia all have cases of the Coronavirus. These people were on planes with 100s of others where air is recycled .There is a complete unknown now who has the virus in the EU due to the incubation period of 10 to 14 days.

Who do we quarantine? Just everyone from China who arrives?

Even the top health Chief believes it’s already in the UK

Public Health England medical director Dr Yvonne Doyle told Sky News she suspects there are already cases of coronavirus in the UK.

4068ac1elhodqr · 27-01-2020 01:45PM

Duke of Url wrote: »

Nothing wrong with quarantine
I’m highlighting that the France, US, Australia all have cases of the Coronavirus. These people were on planes with 100s of others where air is recycled .There is a complete unknown now who has the virus in the EU due to the incubation period of 10 to 14 days.
Who do we quarantine? Just everyone from China who arrives?
Even the top health Chief believes it’s already in the UK
Public Health England medical director Dr Yvonne Doyle told Sky News she suspects there are already cases of coronavirus in the UK.

Public Health England have already stated, that any suspected cases should be quarantined.

E.g. If someone walks into their GP that matches the risk criteria and displays symptons, then they should be isolated in a spare room and not allowed to leave.

Likely until a specalist ambulance arrives, for safe transport to a hospital with a containment/isolation facility.

mikhail · 27-01-2020 01:50PM

harpstilidie wrote: »

Was hoping to visit China on holiday in the summer. Nothing booked yet thankfully.

Be mad to even consider it now would I?

Likely to be over by then. I wouldn't book anything yet, mind.

megatron989 · 27-01-2020 01:53PM

Legacy Better Explosion wrote: »

Public Health England have already stated, that any suspected cases should be quarantined.

E.g. If someone walks into their GP that matches the risk criteria and displays symptons, then they should be isolated in a spare room and not allowed to leave.

Likely until a specalist ambulance arrives, for safe transport to a hospital with a containment/isolation facility.

These plans are all well and good if you have a sporadic handful of cases. What happens if you have thousands? And we aren't talking about thousands of people with upper respatory disease like the common Cold or flu, but thousands of people with lower respatory disease like pneumonia. That's the key difference and the systems in the UK or here in Ireland especially just don't have capacity for that kinda emergency.

whiskeyman · 27-01-2020 01:53PM

Deleted User wrote: »

No signs of illness. That's good at least.

'He is not ill and as a precaution he has agreed not to attend college and stay in his accommodation by himself for the time being."

Just like most students so...

Winning_Stroke · 27-01-2020 02:14PM

Maybe having open air live meat markets in a massive urbanisation isn't the best of ideas. Bat soup just isn't worth it.

Call Me Jimmy · 27-01-2020 03:18PM

Chinese shutting down their economy for a few weeks... let that sink in

ceadaoin. · 27-01-2020 03:48PM

megatron989 wrote: »

These plans are all well and good if you have a sporadic handful of cases. What happens if you have thousands? And we aren't talking about thousands of people with upper respatory disease like the common Cold or flu, but thousands of people with lower respatory disease like pneumonia. That's the key difference and the systems in the UK or here in Ireland especially just don't have capacity for that kinda emergency.

Except by all accounts, for the majority of people, it is just a cold symptoms wise. I could see how everyone who sneezes freaking out and going to the hospital though could overwhelm the system and also lead to overcrowding in hospitals like we are seeing in china.

27-01-2020 03:55PM

Call Me Jimmy wrote: »

Chinese shutting down their economy for a few weeks... let that sink in

China has a far greater degree of electronic transfers (wechat/Taobao/etc) than other countries I've been in. I haven't used cash in the last two years of being in China, so the idea of them needing to shut down their economy is unlikely. There's still plenty of options for the economy to continue while being monitored or having safety measures being in place.

Nijmegen · 27-01-2020 03:57PM

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Except by all accounts, for the majority of people, it is just a cold symptoms wise. I could see how everyone who sneezes freaking out and going to the hospital though could overwhelm the system and also lead to overcrowding in hospitals like we are seeing in china.

At the moment authorities and experts are saying they're not sure (a) the total number, but likely well in excess of 100,000 total; (b) they're not sure how infectious the disease is human-to-human; and (c) how lethal it is compared to a normal influenza season outbreak. All we can say for sure is that it is a fast moving disease in China where cases are likely to and are indeed popping up elsewhere because people travel.

If (b) is "high" then those with weakened immune systems, the elderly and sick and young, are indeed at high risk as they are during any influenza season; just with a version of the virus that does not have any effective treatment as yet.

If (c) is higher than usual, by the time it's confirmed the shelves will be empty so enjoy.

4068ac1elhodqr · 27-01-2020 03:58PM

megatron989 wrote: »

That's the key difference and the systems in the UK or here in Ireland especially just don't have capacity for that kinda emergency.

Show any significant country on the planet that would be fully prepared for such an event, (there isn't one) indeed some of the leading economies with private healthcare sytems would be the worst.

Someone average lad up in the Yorkshire Dales, or Mayo that hasn't been away from their farm, nor even visted a Chinese takeaway, that has flu simply isn't going to meet the criteria for testing, nor hopsitalisation.

The uk has already tested 73, so far negative. The only risk for the (Island) of Ireland would be a couple of the larger cities, esp around public transport systems.

Britian with a x10 more dense population and about x15 major cities, and very busy airports, would have more to be concerned about.

volchitsa · 27-01-2020 04:08PM

Concerning the source, has anyone mentioned this yet?
https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the-chinese-lab-poised-to-study-world-s-most-dangerous-pathogens-1.21487
Some of China's other bacteriology/virology labs have a very poor security record. The Beijing lab working with SARS has aparently let it escape multiple times.
Maybe the meat market is being unfairly blamed.

Nijmegen · 27-01-2020 04:37PM

volchitsa wrote: »

Concerning the source, has anyone mentioned this yet?
https://www.nature.com/news/inside-the-chinese-lab-poised-to-study-world-s-most-dangerous-pathogens-1.21487
Some of China's other bacteriology/virology labs have a very poor security record. The Beijing lab working with SARS has aparently let it escape multiple times.
Maybe the meat market is being unfairly blamed.

To be honest, if it leaked from a lab then there may be a better understanding of it than some random mutation in a meat market and they could be faster to get an inoculation.

volchitsa · 27-01-2020 04:42PM

Nijmegen wrote: »

To be honest, if it leaked from a lab then there may be a better understanding of it than some random mutation in a meat market and they could be faster to get an inoculation.

Not if they can't admit to it because of losing face. Big thing in China I gather, and they are very proud of their technological prowess so it would look particularly bad.

Anyway, it's just a suspicion, I know we have no evidence of that. Very odd coincidence all the same.

Nijmegen · 27-01-2020 04:49PM

volchitsa wrote: »

Not if they can't admit to it because of losing face. Big thing in China I gather, and they are very proud of their technological prowess so it would look particularly bad.

Anyway, it's just a suspicion, I know we have no evidence of that. Very odd coincidence all the same.

Just invent the jab in record quick time and pretend it was because of your technological prowess! Win win.

In any event, the source of the virus is - at this point - moot unless that lab theory leads to a faster handling of the crisis.

new coronavirus outbreak China, Korea, USA - mod warnings in OP (updated 24/02/20)

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