General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

FrancieBrady · 21-01-2020 12:25AM

is_that_so wrote: »

In 2007 they did have momentum but it all flipped in the last week back to FF. Voters decide in the last 7 days.

They weren't the incumbents in 2007 though. The PD's took the incumbent hit then. Looks like FG are taking the hit for this government so far anyhow.

tayto lover · 21-01-2020 12:28AM

The “Black and Tans” have taken a high percentage of the FG votes it seems.

road_high · 21-01-2020 12:31AM

is_that_so wrote: »

In 2007 they did have momentum but it all flipped in the last week back to FF. Voters decide in the last 7 days.

FG could surprise as they’re coming from rock bottom and they’ve had so much bad press and fcuk ups it couldn’t possible get any worse. The 20% undecideds will be key and depends on how risk averse they are. I remember 2007 and there was a major turning point in the last week as the spotlight came on the economy and FF made hay (seems laughable in retrospect I know) but the sense out there was not to jeopardise things by rocking the boat too much -“keep the good time’s rolling”

mgn · 21-01-2020 12:31AM

tayto lover wrote: »

The “Black and Tans” have taken a high percentage of the FG votes it seems.

Look like the were good for something after all.

road_high · 21-01-2020 12:33AM

tayto lover wrote: »

The “Black and Tans” have taken a high percentage of the FG votes it seems.

Yep. An unbelievable own goal right at the start of an election. You couldn’t dream up the idiocy of Flanagan and co. Totally detached from reality

charlie14 · 21-01-2020 12:39AM

Water John wrote: »

SF are at 15% in Dublin but at 28% in Connacht/Ulster.
SF the highest party in Leinster?

Thought that a bit strange myself.
Interesting tweet from Gavin Reilly on the margin of error.
According to him by demographics it is +/- 2.8% whereas by age it is +/- 5.5%

markodaly · 21-01-2020 12:41AM

Many threads about the upcoming General Election, but very little on the way of actual policies being discussed or merits of plans debated. This thread is a thread for discussing and debating policy only.

Saying that, its kinda difficult to parse as policies are bandied about though the news-cycle and no manifesto's have been released yet.

[Sinn Féin]
One that seems to have slipped unde the radar is the acceptance from MLD that the Special Criminal Court, hated by Gerry Adams and the Provos of old.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/sinn-fein-call-for-review-not-abolition-of-special-criminal-court-976322.html

The party said it would abolish the non-jury court in the run-up to the last election, however, now it appears to have rowed back on the position, saying there should be a "review" instead.

The party's justice spokesperson Martin Kenny says there are clear issues with the Special Criminal Court:

"It's a 19th century implement to deal with 21st century crime.

"We need to have a review," he added. "In 2017, we sought a comprehensive review."

Speaking on the campaign trail earlier in the week party leader Mary Lou McDonald said the court was "not unproblematic" but said it would put its existence under review, rather than outright abolish it, if in government.

Review rather than abolish indeed.

Seeing as Crime is a majour political issue now, the SCC will be forefront in peoples mind as way with dealing violent drug lords.

Also for Sinn Fein, they want to reduce the state pension age back down to 65.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/sinn-f%C3%A9in-pledges-to-pay-state-pension-at-age-65-1.4142246?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fnews%2Fpolitics%2Fsinn-f%25C3%25A9in-pledges-to-pay-state-pension-at-age-65-1.4142246

Sinn Féin has pledged to keep the State pension age at 65, adding that it was “obscene and disrespectful” to force people who are older than that to work

Populism to buy votes imo. Do they also mention how the state is going to pay for the 350 Billion in upcoming pension liabilities?

[Fianna Fáil]
On the pension MM mentions that that they will outlaw contracts making compulsary retirement at 65 illegal.

https://www.rte.ie/news/election-2020/2020/0119/1108421-micheal-martin/

Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin has said if elected to government his party would seek to outlaw contracts that force people to retire at 65.

Not nessesarily something I would not agree with but a) probably unconstituional and b) does not help those with existing employment contracts.

[Fine Gael]

In relation to the pension they propose a transition payment for those having to retire at 65, until they get the state pension at 66 or later.

https://www.rte.ie/news/campaign-daily/2020/0120/1109680-fine-gael-promises-pension-transition-payment/

Fine Gael has promised a "transition payment" for people who wish to retire at 65 but who do not qualify for the State pension.

A transition payment would mean that people over 65 would have not have to seek job seekers' allowance in the intervening period.

I welcome SF's change in relation to the SCC, long time coming. However, their populist approach to the state pension is red flag to anyone with sense.
FF's and FG's appraoch on the latter is more mature.
Then again, if the voters lap up SF's policy, then we only have ourselves to blame with it all comes crashing down.

Spanish Eyes · 21-01-2020 12:45AM

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Might just be anecdotal evidence on my end but have noticed a lot of anger at SF being excluded from the televised debate, including interestingly from those that wouldn't be natural SF supporters.

Yes and I do not support SF at all. I want the hear them and listen to them outside of the Easter Lily shyte and Border County support. Bring it on.

But sadly.... not going to happen. It is playing into SF's hand to exclude them I think.

beggars_bush · 21-01-2020 12:48AM

Gloves are off between FG and FF
Looking forward to the mud slinging

charlie14 · 21-01-2020 12:49AM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Definitely. Party polling is done on a constituency by constituency basis unless it is policy based questions that are being asked. Much more reliable in predicting the actual TD's that will be elected.

If this is being reflected in SF`s own polling, then I imagine we should see them adding candidates in 4 and 5 seat constituencies before nominations close.

Billcarson · 21-01-2020 12:59AM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Yes and I do not support SF at all. I want the hear them and listen to them outside of the Easter Lily shyte and Border County support. Bring it on.

But sadly.... not going to happen. It is playing into SF's hand to exclude them I think.

My first thought on this issue would be it could backfire on ff and fg and could get more people in favour of sf then might otherwise be the case.

cameramonkey · 21-01-2020 01:16AM

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Might just be anecdotal evidence on my end but have noticed a lot of anger at SF being excluded from the televised debate, including interestingly from those that wouldn't be natural SF supporters.

SF should really push this issue. They should take court proceedings even if they are going to lose, drag it out as long as possible, push the news agenda with the story. They can portray(rightly) themselves as being excluded by the elites and play the outsider card. It's really a godsend for them because RTE who are about as popular pedo at a children's party will be fighting them in the courts and SF can play the victim. Everyone hates RTE.
It could be the lead story for a few days for SF and win or lose its still win win.
If I was them I would be throwing the kitchen sink at both RTE and Virgin and dragging them through the courts with injunctions.

cameramonkey · 21-01-2020 01:26AM

road_high wrote: »

FG could surprise as they’re coming from rock bottom and they’ve had so much bad press and fcuk ups it couldn’t possible get any worse.

They better shut up Leo quickly because he is not popular at the moment. His comment about owning his house at 24 today is another example of his utter detachment from ordinary people.

Sir Oxman · 21-01-2020 01:39AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

If memory serves...didn't Ipsos have SF 6 points ahead of where they finished in the 2016 GE.
A pinch of poll salt with this one too.

And they had FG on 30% last poll 2016 and underestimated FF
The trend for FG is clear - losses. LV is a negative for them down 16% Gov satisfaction has dropped 15% as well
FF gains
Labour nowhere
Greens a few gains
No one can take SFs figures as read they are continually overrated in polls

Strazdas · 21-01-2020 02:06AM

tayto lover wrote: »

The “Black and Tans” have taken a high percentage of the FG votes it seems.

I have my doubts. Lots of angry ranting on social media from the usual suspects but it was hardly something that had the nation energised.

Varadkar himself says it is things like the health service that is coming up on the doorsteps.

Bishop of hope · 21-01-2020 08:31AM

Strazdas wrote: »

I have my doubts. Lots of angry ranting on social media from the usual suspects but it was hardly something that had the nation energised.

Varadkar himself says it is things like the health service that is coming up on the doorsteps.

I heard he said yesterday that he wasn't blaming himself or Charlie or any other minister for their slump. Typical FG, blame somebody else.

McMurphy · 21-01-2020 08:31AM

Strazdas wrote: »

I have my doubts. Lots of angry ranting on social media from the usual suspects but it was hardly something that had the nation energised.

Are you saying it was cancelled due to some complaining on social media?

It happened to be headline news up and down the country with people absolutely disgusted if memory serves me correctly. You might be following Charlies lead with a bit of revisionism yourself there.

seamus · 21-01-2020 08:48AM

If anything the polls indicate that the Irish voter is in a very fickle place at the moment and there's a solid 5-7% who will give their vote to whichever party has most impressed them in a given week. Take another poll this week and the outcome will change again.

The only permanent indicators we have from those two polls now are that FF and the Greens look like they have a solid base of around 25% and 8% each and the smaller parties/independents are going to be slaughtered.

This uncertainty will least give us something to look forward to during the count, even if we know the final numbers won't yield much of interest.

I too have my doubts about the impact of the RIC affair and whether anyone will remember or care come 8th February.

Godot. · 21-01-2020 08:56AM

Sinn Fein are running what, 44 candidates? Even if they somehow won them all they wouldn't be the largest party/senior partner in a coalition. The RTE debate is for the next Taoiseach. The outrage from the Shinnerbots on social media is laughable.

FrancieBrady · 21-01-2020 09:10AM

Strazdas wrote: »

I have my doubts. Lots of angry ranting on social media from the usual suspects but it was hardly something that had the nation energised.

Varadkar himself says it is things like the health service that is coming up on the doorsteps.

seamus wrote: »

If anything the polls indicate that the Irish voter is in a very fickle place at the moment and there's a solid 5-7% who will give their vote to whichever party has most impressed them in a given week. Take another poll this week and the outcome will change again.

The only permanent indicators we have from those two polls now are that FF and the Greens look like they have a solid base of around 25% and 8% each and the smaller parties/independents are going to be slaughtered.

This uncertainty will least give us something to look forward to during the count, even if we know the final numbers won't yield much of interest.

I too have my doubts about the impact of the RIC affair and whether anyone will remember or care come 8th February.

The RIC/DMP 'outrage' caused the quickest about face by a government I have seen in my almost 60 years.

FrancieBrady · 21-01-2020 09:12AM

Godot. wrote: »

Sinn Fein are running what, 44 candidates? Even if they somehow won them all they wouldn't be the largest party/senior partner in a coalition. The RTE debate is for the next Taoiseach. The outrage from the Shinnerbots on social media is laughable.

RTE have basically decided who will negotiate the formation of the next government.
At this stage that is not clear at all.

is_that_so · 21-01-2020 09:13AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

They weren't the incumbents in 2007 though. The PD's took the incumbent hit then. Looks like FG are taking the hit for this government so far anyhow.

I was talking about FF v FG. Up until that last week voters seemed to be looking for change but they decided against it. That's where we are now, also about 9 years of incumbents. Last seven days are key, not these early skirmishes.

is_that_so · 21-01-2020 09:16AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

RTE have basically decided who will negotiate the formation of the next government.
At this stage that is not clear at all.

They haven't and it is. It will be one of the two because of the numbers they will bring. No other combination is possible without one or the other with FF looking the most likely.

FrancieBrady · 21-01-2020 09:19AM

is_that_so wrote: »

They haven't and it is. It will be one of the two because of the numbers they will bring. No other combination is possible without one or the other.

It could be SF and FF based on two polls now. Or FG and SF.

The national broadcaster should not be engaging in the exclusionary politics of FF/FG.

If it looks like the electorate are going to say that the top two are going to be FF and one of either FG or SF then the debate should reflect that.

Ludo · 21-01-2020 09:25AM

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Might just be anecdotal evidence on my end but have noticed a lot of anger at SF being excluded from the televised debate, including interestingly from those that wouldn't be natural SF supporters.

Anger might be too strong a word for it, but as a non-SF voter I do find it odd that they are excluded. They should be allowed take part.
This would never make me consider voting for them though. That decision is based on policies not a tv debate exclusion.

Godot. wrote: »

Sinn Fein are running what, 44 candidates? Even if they somehow won them all they wouldn't be the largest party/senior partner in a coalition. The RTE debate is for the next Taoiseach. The outrage from the Shinnerbots on social media is laughable.

That on the other hand is a VERY good point. If they are not going to run enough candidates to lead the country then off they go with the other also-rans.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

RTE have basically decided who will negotiate the formation of the next government.
At this stage that is not clear at all.

Nope..by that logic they would have to let in ALL Parties. I don't see SF whinging about Labour/Green leaders being excluded.

Phoebas · 21-01-2020 09:26AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

It could be SF and FF based on two polls now. Or FG and SF.

The national broadcaster should not be engaging in the exclusionary politics of FF/FG.

If it looks like the electorate are going to say that the top two are going to be FF and one of either FG or SF then the debate should reflect that.

Whatever the rights or wrongs of not having Mary Lou in the debate, the idea that Sinn Fein are in second place, based on one isolated poll, isn't grounded in reality.

"Gilmore for Taoiseach" anyone?

is_that_so · 21-01-2020 09:27AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

It could be SF and FF based on two polls now. Or FG and SF.

The national broadcaster should not be engaging in the exclusionary politics of FF/FG.

If it looks like the electorate are going to say that the top two are going to be FF and one of either FG or SF then the debate should reflect that.

Only if SF don't fancy opposition again. There will be other far more amenable prospective partners to do deals with plus a fairly inevitable supply and confidence agreement but it is going to be one or the other and very unlikely to include SF. They are not excluding them, there will be other opportunities.

FrancieBrady · 21-01-2020 09:32AM

Phoebas wrote: »

Whatever the rights or wrongs of not having Mary Lou in the debate, the idea that Sinn Fein are in second place, based on one isolated poll, isn't grounded in reality.

"Gilmore for Taoiseach" anyone?

Other than putting a wet finger into the air, the two polls we have potentially put them in second place. Assuming the MoE.

I don't want this to be a defence of SF. I just don't think the national broadcaster should be pre-empting the poll in this way. There are clearly 3 parties in the running here. I think that is why more than SF have issue with it.

golfball37 · 21-01-2020 09:35AM

I would welcome SF getting 20% of the vote as we need to move on from FFG and grow up. I won't be voting for them nor do I agree with them on most things but its time the swamp was drained here and FFG merged in the national interest.
The reality is come election day SF will max out on 14% as per usual.

is_that_so · 21-01-2020 09:39AM

golfball37 wrote: »

I would welcome SF getting 20% of the vote as we need to move on from FFG and grow up. I won't be voting for them nor do I agree with them on most things but its time the swamp was drained here and FFG merged in the national interest.
The reality is come election day SF will max out on 14% as per usual.

I'd say national interest here means your interest! That voting patterns don't suit you or that you dislike certain parties getting a lot of votes is no evidence of a swamp.

General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

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