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General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

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  • #542
    hotmail.com
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,367 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    In terms of age, the Greens are most popular with middle age and older people.

    The environment is clearly not as important for young people, as is being made out.


  • #543
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    boggerman1 wrote: »
    Stephan Donnelly having a mare on Clare Byrne Live.proving he’s an idiot too much in love with his own perceived intellectual ability
    I watched him for 2 minutes waiting for this poll. He's insufferable.


  • #544
    Bishop of hope
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,255 ✭✭✭Bishop of hope


    ricero wrote: »
    The tide is turning. The 18 - 34 demographic don't care about the tiresome attempts by the media to still say Sinn Fein are the political party of the IRA.

    Sinn Fein will become the dominant party in Ireland within the next decade I reckon.

    Well I haven't sold my house in London yet, so at least I have an escape, back to Boris, not sure which is worse.


  • #545
    tayto lover
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 54,158 ✭✭✭✭tayto lover


    Sierra Oscar wrote: »
    Some more figures from the Ipsos poll.

    https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1219390511322148870

    Greens 15% in Dublin.
    More tree huggers in Dublin.

    The Greens will tax the people out of existence. Lunatics.


  • #546
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    ricero wrote: »
    The tide is turning. The 18 - 34 demographic don't care about the tiresome attempts by the media to still say Sinn Fein are the political party of the IRA.

    Sinn Fein will become the dominant party in Ireland within the next decade I reckon.
    They can't unless they crack the centre. If they crack the centre they lose the left!


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  • #547
    Water John
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,832 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Red C will adjust polling to reflect the likelyhood of voter turnout. Will be worth reading the background to their poll which will accompany it in the SBP.
    Should be out Sat evening.


  • #548
    Sierra Oscar
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,669 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    ricero wrote: »
    The tide is turning. The 18 - 34 demographic don't care about the tiresome attempts by the media to still say Sinn Fein are the political party of the IRA.

    Sinn Fein will become the dominant party in Ireland within the next decade I reckon.

    Tbh, a stint in Government and Sinn Féin will have the same issues as all that have come before them.


  • #549
    jpfahy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,039 ✭✭✭jpfahy


    blackcard wrote: »
    In the 2019 local elections, FF got 26.9%, FG 25.2%, SF 9.5%. Similar gap between FF and FG as in latest poll. What is the cause of the SF rise?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ORifieiZiP4


  • #550
    Phoebas
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,371 ✭✭✭Phoebas


    boggerman1 wrote: »
    Stephan Donnelly having a mare on Clare Byrne Live.proving he’s an idiot too much in love with his own perceived intellectual ability
    There's a fair bit of consensus across all parties re SlainteCare and Donnelly keeps trying to go off reservation.


  • #551
    road_high
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,862 ✭✭✭✭road_high


    ricero wrote: »
    The tide is turning. The 18 - 34 demographic don't care about the tiresome attempts by the media to still say Sinn Fein are the political party of the IRA.

    Sinn Fein will become the dominant party in Ireland within the next decade I reckon.

    They’re completely unproven ffs! They’ve never sat in government in the Dáil which is a great leveller for political aspirations. Just ask so many that have went before. But unlike SF they deserve respect for stepping up to the mark and governing.
    SF would much rather scurry off to the opposition benches but they may be running out of runway and we can all at least see the glories they’ve been promising for so long


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  • #552
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Sierra Oscar wrote: »
    Some more figures from the Ipsos poll.

    https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1219390511322148870
    Demographics from that feed are interesting, especially in the over 65s! FF 40%


  • #553
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Phoebas wrote: »
    There's a fair bit of consensus across all parties re SlainteCare and Donnelly keeps trying to go off reservation.
    SlainteCare is all party and a lot of time and effort went into it.


  • #554
    road_high
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,862 ✭✭✭✭road_high


    is_that_so wrote: »
    Demographics from that feed are interesting, especially in the over 65s! FF 40%

    And they actually vote!


  • #555
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    road_high wrote: »
    And they actually vote!
    Yep. Think this could be an interesting campaign for opinion polls!


  • #556
    blackcard
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,317 ✭✭✭blackcard


    An Ciarraioch wrote: »
    Shane Coleman predictions in Sunday Independent (aggregates his constituency forecasts):

    FF 55
    FG 46
    Ind 18
    SF 17
    Green 11
    Lab 8
    Soc Dems 2
    Sol/PBP 2 (Coppinger, Smith)
    Aontú 1

    I don't think those figures will be a million miles away. Which would leave the following options.
    FF in power with supply and confidence arrangement with FG
    Coalition between FF and FG
    Coalition between FF, SF and others. Others could be Greens, Lab or independents. Can't see Greens or Lab wanting to go into coalition after recent experiences. My bet would be FF with supply and confidence from FG


  • #557
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,589 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Water John wrote: »
    Red C will adjust polling to reflect the likelyhood of voter turnout. Will be worth reading the background to their poll which will accompany it in the SBP.
    Should be out Sat evening.

    RedC's first poll in 2016 was all over the place in terms of where they finished too. They were 5-6 points out on FG, FF, SF.

    Too early in the campaign to be sure yet, but the momentum is not with FG and it is hard to see where they will find it now.


  • #558
    L1011
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 72,777 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    SF would need to decide whether to trust these polls urgently as they'd want more second candidates in 4 and 5 seaters. Only two days to nominate


  • #559
    JP Liz V1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 91,077 ✭✭✭✭JP Liz V1


    pirlo80 wrote: »
    Can anyone explain (briefly) why RTE are not allowing ML McDonald to take part in the leaders debate ? Surely if SF are polling at 21% they have to have her on the debate ?

    Pat Kenny debate will also feature Leo (FG) and Michael (FF) only for VM1
    https://forumofgames.com/




  • #560
    retalivity
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,936 ✭✭✭✭retalivity


    Leo would want to be asking the PR company for a refund... A million quid for -16 points??


  • #561
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    L1011 wrote: »
    SF would need to decide whether to trust these polls urgently as they'd want more second candidates in 4 and 5 seaters. Only two days to nominate
    I think they'll stick as they are. Remember Donegal in 2016. :eek: They are going to be down 5 due to retirements and defections. I don't think they believe their vote is that high anyway.


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  • #562
    road_high
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,862 ✭✭✭✭road_high


    L1011 wrote: »
    SF being vastly lower in Dublin than Rest-of-Leinster seems utterly insane. That said, some areas of Dublin have had SF-led councils...

    That’s bizarre alright, SF never been strong in Leinster and were wiped out in the local elections (no cllrs in Carlow Kilkenny for example). I’d have expected them to be stronger in Dublin but maybe they’d have more exposure to their local government performance and are are less impressed


  • #563
    Water John
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,832 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    The PR company aren't magicians.


  • #564
    Mr.Nice Guy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 45,643 ✭✭✭✭Mr.Nice Guy


    Might just be anecdotal evidence on my end but have noticed a lot of anger at SF being excluded from the televised debate, including interestingly from those that wouldn't be natural SF supporters.


  • #565
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    road_high wrote: »
    That’s bizarre alright, SF never been strong in Leinster and were wiped out in the local elections (no cllrs in Carlow Kilkenny for example). I’d have expected them to be stronger in Dublin but maybe they’d have more exposure to their local government performance and are are less impressed
    I wonder if parties will just stick with their own private polling? They'll be a whole lot easier to make sense of than these polls.


  • #566
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »
    Might just be anecdotal evidence on my end but have noticed a lot of anger at SF being excluded from the televised debate, including interestingly from those that wouldn't be natural SF supporters.
    Is this actual anger or social media anger?


  • #567
    road_high
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,862 ✭✭✭✭road_high


    L1011 wrote: »
    SF would need to decide whether to trust these polls urgently as they'd want more second candidates in 4 and 5 seaters. Only two days to nominate

    Well all the ones where they are doing poorly are rigged according to their mobs on social media so go figure


  • #568
    robman60
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,229 ✭✭✭robman60


    tayto lover wrote: »
    Greens 15% in Dublin.
    More tree huggers in Dublin.

    The Greens will tax the people out of existence. Lunatics.

    Looking at a breakdown of the numbers it seems most of their voters are in the wealthiest (AB) demographic so I suppose they're not too concerned. Juxtapose the 18% they enjoy with that group to the 0% they have with the poorest.


  • #569
    mgn
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,904 ✭✭✭mgn


    Water John wrote: »
    The PR company aren't magicians.

    Well the had a spell cast on the media for long enough, only recently did the cop on to Leo the he was all spin and no substance.


  • #570
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    RedC's first poll in 2016 was all over the place in terms of where they finished too. They were 5-6 points out on FG, FF, SF.

    Too early in the campaign to be sure yet, but the momentum is not with FG and it is hard to see where they will find it now.
    In 2007 they did have momentum but it all flipped in the last week back to FF. Voters decide in the last 7 days.


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  • #571
    Sierra Oscar
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,669 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    is_that_so wrote: »
    I wonder if parties will just stick with their own private polling? They'll be a whole lot easier to make sense of than these polls.

    Definitely. Party polling is done on a constituency by constituency basis unless it is policy based questions that are being asked. Much more reliable in predicting the actual TD's that will be elected.


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