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General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

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  • #512
    Sierra Oscar
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,669 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    pirlo80 wrote: »
    Can anyone explain (briefly) why RTE are not allowing ML McDonald to take part in the leaders debate ? Surely if SF are polling at 21% they have to have her on the debate ?

    They are arguing that Sinn Féin aren't fielding enough candidates to allow Mary Lou to be in the reckoning to be Taoiseach. The debate is being billed as a future Taoiseach's debate. Only Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil are fielding enough candidates to be in the driving seat to take the top job.


  • #513
    McMurphy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,365 ✭✭✭✭McMurphy


    pirlo80 wrote: »
    Can anyone explain (briefly) why RTE are not allowing ML McDonald to take part in the leaders debate ? Surely if SF are polling at 21% they have to have her on the debate ?

    That big question is trending on twitter at the minute, tbh Doherty would be a better rep than ML (imo) anyway.

    Will keep an eye on the twitter thing, don't be surprised if RTE give way.


  • #514
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,589 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    An Ciarraioch wrote: »
    SF are only running 42 candidates, according to Adrian Kavanagh, so the irony here is that they could actually have too few in play if they actually did get a result in the low-twenties!

    https://adriankavanaghelections.org/2017/04/19/candidates-for-the-next-2017-2021-general-election-by-constituency/

    If memory serves...didn't Ipsos have SF 6 points ahead of where they finished in the 2016 GE.
    A pinch of poll salt with this one too.


  • #515
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    An Ciarraioch wrote: »
    They're saying based on past results, though that logic would have meant an FG v Labour debate in 2016.
    I'd say there's an averaging out of a bit more than 5 years! Both would always come out ahead.


  • #516
    hotmail.com
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,367 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    I bet Leo would love to threaten a no deal Brexit again.


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  • #517
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    If memory serves...didn't Ipsos have SF 6 points ahead of where they finished in the 2016 GE.
    A pinch of poll salt with this one too.
    They had them at 15% 4 days before but at 19% about 3 weeks before the election. My own feeling is that their true level is about mid-teens at most. Be hard to make sense of these polls if a RedC poll drops them down to 15%.


  • #518
    maynooth_rules
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,511 ✭✭✭maynooth_rules


    Sinn Fein are utterly toxic for transfer votes as well, which will kill them


  • #519
    Frank Bullitt
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,930 ✭✭✭✭Frank Bullitt


    image.jpg

    Party leader satisfaction ratings, as measured in the first campaign poll for Election 2020 for The Irish Times by Ipsos MRBI.


  • #520
    charlie14
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,579 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    is_that_so wrote: »
    Still the most popular choice according to this poll. Martin is down too.

    It is not affecting FF`s percentage though.

    With FG down 6% and Varadkar down 16% it would be interesting to see how much the drop in support for Varadkar influenced the drop in support for FG.


  • #521
    blackcard
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,317 ✭✭✭blackcard


    is_that_so wrote: »
    They had them at 15% 4 days before but at 19% about 3 weeks before the election. My own feeling is that their true level is about mid-teens at most. Be hard to make sense of these polls if a RedC poll drops them down to 15%.

    In the 2019 local elections, FF got 26.9%, FG 25.2%, SF 9.5%. Similar gap between FF and FG as in latest poll. What is the cause of the SF rise?


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  • #522
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Coveney and Bruton to be put forward by FG now.

    Coveney could save them if put to fore.

    Certainly seems more real this poll with usual over egging of Shinners number.


  • #523
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    charlie14 wrote: »
    It is not affecting FF`s percentage though.

    With FG down 6% and Varadkar down 16% it would be interesting to see how much the drop in support for Varadkar influenced the drop in support for FG.
    There's not really much correlation between the two. Leaders are out front and they have taken some hits so people are more aware of him. I don't see how you can link perceived leader popularity to voting intentions.


  • #524
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    blackcard wrote: »
    In the 2019 local elections, FF got 26.9%, FG 25.2%, SF 9.5%. Similar gap between FF and FG as in latest poll. What is the cause of the SF rise?
    They have had them this high before and they've had them at 14% in the last year. It is a snapshot which may or may not be proven true.


  • #525
    hotmail.com
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,367 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    blackcard wrote: »
    In the 2019 local elections, FF got 26.9%, FG 25.2%, SF 9.5%. Similar gap between FF and FG as in latest poll. What is the cause of the SF rise?

    Probably disillusionment with both the main parties and Independents.

    It's almost like the Gilmore surge in 2011.

    3 weeks to go, I feel that they will fall off. They will kick up a huge fuss about the debates.


  • #526
    charlie14
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,579 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    maynooth_rules wrote: »
    Sinn Fein are utterly toxic for transfer votes as well, which will kill them

    Strange poll, but if it is anyway reflected on polling day then I would not be so sure they will be toxic for transfers
    Especially when you see FG down 6%, Lab down 1% and FG up a corresponding 7%


  • #527
    Sierra Oscar
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,669 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    Some more figures from the Ipsos poll.

    https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1219390511322148870


  • #528
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Bishop of hope wrote: »
    Well maybe they'd not reach their quota but maybe they'd try a bit harder, but maybe people are fed up waiting for FG, because they surely haven't achieved much with either have they?
    I won't be voting SF BTW, but observing the two polls, both have SF within 2 points of FG.
    Hard to say what's happening here. A third poll could have them a lot lower. Polls when the DK get down to 10% or lower give you a sense of voting intentions. As 8-9 year incumbents, voters are probably considering a change anyway.


  • #529
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,589 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    hotmail.com wrote: »
    Probably disillusionment with both the main parties and Independents.

    It's almost like the Gilmore surge in 2011.

    3 weeks to go, I feel that they will fall off. They will kick up a huge fuss about the debates.

    Well they have had a ball bounced in front of them. It will play well with those who want to register a protest against the FFFG paralysis.


  • #530
    Water John
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,832 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Voters haven't swung directly from FG to SF. That's not how it works. Would expect SF to end up with 15-16%. Would expect the Greens to do well.
    FF to get the edge on FG.
    This is a more accurate poll. Looking forward to Red C poll.


  • #531
    hotmail.com
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,367 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    Sierra Oscar wrote: »
    Some more figures from the Ipsos poll.

    https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1219390511322148870

    Vastly different numbers from the Sunday Times poll.


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  • #532
    charlie14
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,579 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    is_that_so wrote: »
    There's not really much correlation between the two. Leaders are out front and they have taken some hits so people are more aware of him. I don't see how you can link perceived leader popularity to voting intentions.

    With FG down 6% and Varadkar down 16% then it certainly looks as if there is a correlation between the two
    Which is effecting which is the question though.


  • #533
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    charlie14 wrote: »
    Strange poll, but if it is anyway reflected on polling day then I would not be so sure they will be toxic for transfers
    Especially when you see FG down 6%, Lab down 1% and FG up a corresponding 7%
    SF do get transfers but mostly off the left. The traditional 3 party voters would generally not consider them. I doubt the Greens would either. The overall increase in their FPV means that they less concerned about toxicity although they do need a reasonable left vote to help. More importantly they could be highest in the pecking order for last seats. They also have a number of constituencies where they can run two, confident that one will be in contention and they might get a second one.


  • #534
    Water John
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,832 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    SF are at 15% in Dublin but at 28% in Connacht/Ulster.
    SF the highest party in Leinster?


  • #535
    An Ciarraioch
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,806 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    An attempt at a seat projection by Kevin Cunningham:

    https://twitter.com/kevcunningham/status/1219382907799842817


  • #536
    retalivity
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,936 ✭✭✭✭retalivity


    Water John wrote: »
    SF are at 15% in Dublin but at 28% in Connacht/Ulster.
    SF the highest party in Leinster?

    And 26% in leinster!


  • #537
    Phoebas
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,371 ✭✭✭Phoebas


    When is the next RedC poll out?


  • #538
    L1011
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 72,777 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    SF being vastly lower in Dublin than Rest-of-Leinster seems utterly insane. That said, some areas of Dublin have had SF-led councils...


  • #539
    ricero
    Closed Accounts Posts: 11,348 ✭✭✭✭ricero


    The tide is turning. The 18 - 34 demographic don't care about the tiresome attempts by the media to still say Sinn Fein are the political party of the IRA.

    Sinn Fein will become the dominant party in Ireland within the next decade I reckon.


  • #540
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    charlie14 wrote: »
    With FG down 6% and Varadkar down 16% then it certainly looks as if there is a correlation between the two
    Which is effecting which is the question though.
    I'm with Occam's Razor on this and that he's having a bad time because he is leader and they may not be doing so well because of their own overall performance, not because of him.


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  • #541
    boggerman1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,069 ✭✭✭boggerman1


    Stephan Donnelly having a mare on Clare Byrne Live.proving he’s an idiot too much in love with his own perceived intellectual ability


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