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General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

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Comments

  • #482
    L1011
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 72,777 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    malistheman wrote: »
    When was the poll taken ?

    16th-18th. So it covers Holohangate mostly, so we can't assume that it's going to dink the SF figures in it.


  • #483
    An Ciarraioch
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,806 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    Also 10% Ind
    1% Ind Alliance and an intriguing
    3% "Others" .


  • #484
    Itssoeasy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 41,012 ✭✭✭✭Itssoeasy


    malistheman wrote: »
    When was the poll taken ?

    Between last Thursday and Saturday.


  • #485
    silver2020
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,045 ✭✭✭silver2020


    is_that_so wrote: »
    The poll was taken on Thursday, Friday and Saturday of last week in the days after the election campaign began.

    probably because Mary Lou has been fairly quiet and an obvious bounce from finally going back into government in NI after 3 years of a tantrum (DUP also had a tantrum)


  • #486
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Last IPSOS poll from October.

    FG 29
    FF 25
    SF14
    Lab 6
    PBP 1
    SD1
    GR 8
    IA<1
    Others 14


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  • #487
    hotmail.com
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,367 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    Sierra Oscar wrote: »
    FF 25% (-)
    FG 23% (-6)
    SF 21% (+7)
    GP 8% (-)
    Lab 5% (-1)
    S-PBP 2% (+1)
    Soc Dems 2% (+1)
    I4C 1% (-1)

    Both polls show a drop in support for FG.


  • #488
    L1011
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 72,777 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    silver2020 wrote: »
    probably because Mary Lou has been fairly quiet

    If there is an element of that, it would be in their interests NOT to have her on too many debates.


    Also, FF-SF Government anyone?


  • #489
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    hotmail.com wrote: »
    Both polls show a drop in support for FG.
    Yeah, but this one feel more credible. I note as well that Leo is the most popular choice for Taoiseach. All to play for. 20% DK so still high.


  • #490
    hotmail.com
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,367 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    The Sinn Fein policy on the pension age has taken the other parties by surprise.

    It has gone down very well across the country.


  • #491
    mojesius
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,394 ✭✭✭mojesius


    Wow didn't expect SF to be as high or labour as low as that poll suggests


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  • #492
    Bishop of hope
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,255 ✭✭✭Bishop of hope


    SF in with a real chance of being the powerbrokers, maybe with being the largest party if that kind of momentum continues.?
    Marylou for taoiseach, our first female one, this could be a truly historic election.


  • #493
    road_high
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,863 ✭✭✭✭road_high


    hotmail.com wrote: »
    The Sinn Fein policy on the pension age has taken the other parties by surprise.

    It has gone down very well across the country.

    I’m sure it has but who and how is it going to be paid for? Like the rest of their fairy tales. A spell in government would do these spoofers no harm- Mary lou can do Health and Doherty into Housing- both are seasoned experts according to themselves so it’ll be great to see them in action.


  • #494
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    hotmail.com wrote: »
    The Sinn Fein policy on the pension age has taken the other parties by surprise.

    It has gone down very well across the country.
    It's a very stupid policy no matter how good it sounds. What would they do with the thousands or tens of thousands who've been on a pension from 66? They'll be looking for a refund!


  • #495
    Bishop of hope
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,255 ✭✭✭Bishop of hope


    road_high wrote: »
    I’m sure it has but who and how is it going to be paid for? Like the rest of their fairy tales. A spell in government would do these spoofers no harm- Mary lou can do Health and Doherty into Housing- both are seasoned experts according to themselves so it’ll be great to see them in action.

    Couldn't do much worse than the incumbents.


  • #496
    road_high
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,863 ✭✭✭✭road_high


    silver2020 wrote: »
    probably because Mary Lou has been fairly quiet and an obvious bounce from finally going back into government in NI after 3 years of a tantrum (DUP also had a tantrum)

    All the SF coverage is generally positive populist tripe- only negative I read was the Holohan affair and no one even heard of him before so would make no impact really. All FG coverage is mired in bad news and plain idiocy (like the Black and Tans furore).


  • #497
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Bishop of hope wrote: »
    Couldn't do much worse than the incumbents.
    That remains to be seen. Wait till they "recruit" the thousands of nurses and doctors and try to build the 100,000 houses. FF seem to be in the driving seat here as there would not enough votes for some wacky left-wing coalition around SF and both of the big parties would oppose it anyway. Last seats will be very interesting now in the 4/5 seaters.


  • #498
    charlie14
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,579 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    is_that_so wrote: »
    Yeah, but this one feel more credible. I note as well that Leo is the most popular choice for Taoiseach. All to play for. 20% DK so still high.

    Varadkar is down from 51% to 35%.


  • #499
    blackcard
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,317 ✭✭✭blackcard


    Next poll is when?


  • #500
    McMurphy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,365 ✭✭✭✭McMurphy


    road_high wrote: »
    All the SF coverage is generally positive populist tripe- only negative I read was the Holohan affair and no one even heard of him before so would make no impact really. All FG coverage is mired in bad news and plain idiocy (like the Black and Tans furore).

    Pretty much, while FFG are on the airwaves playfighting that they hate each other, the shinners are creeping up in the long grass.

    There'll be some egg on faces if they finish with up with more seats than FG do, because FG have taken their eye of the ball.


  • #501
    hotmail.com
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,367 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    The Greens are at 15% in Dublin according to this poll.

    This differs greatly from the Sunday Times poll which had them at 7% in Dublin.


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  • #502
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    charlie14 wrote: »
    Varadkar is down from 51% to 35%.
    Still the most popular choice according to this poll. Martin is down too.


  • #503
    Sierra Oscar
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,669 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    blackcard wrote: »
    Next poll is when?

    There's a RedC poll in the Sunday Business Post this weekend.

    Nothing else confirmed, although the likes of PaddyPower could commission a poll and drop it at any moment without a heads up.

    Party's are continuously polling for private campaign data at the moment so there really isn't any opportunity for other organisations to commission their own.


  • #504
    An Ciarraioch
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,806 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    Bishop of hope wrote: »
    SF in with a real chance of being the powerbrokers, maybe with being the largest party if that kind of momentum continues.?
    Marylou for taoiseach, our first female one, this could be a truly historic election.

    SF are only running 42 candidates, according to Adrian Kavanagh, so the irony here is that they could actually have too few in play if they actually did get a result in the low-twenties!

    https://adriankavanaghelections.org/2017/04/19/candidates-for-the-next-2017-2021-general-election-by-constituency/


  • #505
    pirlo80
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 47 ✭pirlo80


    Can anyone explain (briefly) why RTE are not allowing ML McDonald to take part in the leaders debate ? Surely if SF are polling at 21% they have to have her on the debate ?


  • #506
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    hotmail.com wrote: »
    The Greens are at 15% in Dublin according to this poll.

    This differs greatly from the Sunday Times poll which had them at 7% in Dublin.
    It might be a good idea not to mention that first one again. RedC will probably come in around the same levels. Greens would expect to do better in Dublin. National polls for small parties popular in pockets are not very useful.


  • #507
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,589 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    charlie14 wrote: »
    Varadkar is down from 51% to 35%.

    Widely different polls, but I think it is fairly clear that Leo is becoming a toxic figure for FG.

    I expect him to be put in the Enda Dungeon Suite for the rest of the campaign.


  • #508
    maynooth_rules
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,511 ✭✭✭maynooth_rules


    Bishop of hope wrote: »
    SF in with a real chance of being the powerbrokers, maybe with being the largest party if that kind of momentum continues.?
    Marylou for taoiseach, our first female one, this could be a truly historic election.

    Calm the **** down, thankfully Mary Lou wont be within a country mile of the Taoiseachs office. Shinners are starting to sound like crazy labour supporters in the past with their 'Gilmore for Taoiseach' posters


  • #509
    Bishop of hope
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,255 ✭✭✭Bishop of hope


    is_that_so wrote: »
    That remains to be seen. Wait till they "recruit" the thousands of nurses and doctors and try to build the 100,000 houses. FF seem to be in the driving seat here as there would not enough votes for some wacky left-wing coalition around SF and both of the big parties would oppose it anyway. Last seats will be very interesting now in the 4/5 seaters.

    Well maybe they'd not reach their quota but maybe they'd try a bit harder, but maybe people are fed up waiting for FG, because they surely haven't achieved much with either have they?
    I won't be voting SF BTW, but observing the two polls, both have SF within 2 points of FG.


  • #510
    An Ciarraioch
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,806 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    pirlo80 wrote: »
    Can anyone explain (briefly) why RTE are not allowing ML McDonald to take part in the leaders debate ? Surely if SF are polling at 21% they have to have her on the debate ?

    They're saying based on past results, though that logic would have meant an FG v Labour debate in 2016.


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  • #511
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    pirlo80 wrote: »
    Can anyone explain (briefly) why RTE are not allowing ML McDonald to take part in the leaders debate ? Surely if SF are polling at 21% they have to have her on the debate ?
    They'll be in one of them but not the other. Think it's the same with Virgin.


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