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General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

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Comments

  • #392
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    hotmail.com wrote: »
    Social Democrats on 2 - no seat for Gary Gannon in Dublin Central is his prediction.
    Not if there is an increase like that for FF. Fitzpatrick will pass him.


  • #393
    I Am The Law
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 657 ✭✭✭I Am The Law


    VinLieger wrote: »
    Its actually even worse than that, in the last 20-30 years weve been having far less children thanks to how expensive its gotten, creche etc, so by 2040 the ratio of workers to retirees will be about 3:1 compared to 5:1 now. With that many people out of the income tax net and so many more elderly drawing on critical services like health as well as the state pension being unfundable in this scenario and we are well and truly screwed because politicians continually refuse to plan for this ticking time bomb and want to make it worse by not increasing retirement.

    I wouldn't worry about it. By 2040 all our new Irish citizens will be working in legitimate employment and contributing vast amounts of PAYE, PRSI and USC keeping us all cosy in our old age.


  • #394
    VinLieger
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,946 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    beggars_bush wrote: »
    Increase pension contributions from workers
    No party will have that in their manifesto though

    Not how the state pension works unfortunately which is part of the problem, too many people believe their state pension will be there when they retore but in reality contributions paid in today are actuslly given out to a current retiree tomorrow and with currently only 35% with a private pension were in serious trouble. But that wont be talked about this election sycle cus its way too real and depressing.


  • #395
    MarinersBlues
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,327 ✭✭✭MarinersBlues


    is_that_so wrote: »
    It means that the FF 32% could be as low as 29% or as high as 35% and that the FG 20% may be as high as 23% or as low as 17%. The MOE is used because people polled are random and one cannot say with absolute certainty support levels have been exactly captured. Usually the level of MOE indicates the accuracy although most do hover in around 3% anyway.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margin_of_error

    The margin of error is a direct function of the sample size.

    If a poll is of 1000 people then the margin is always 3%

    There may be other issues such as selection bias that won't be covered by MOE.


  • #396
    darlett
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,316 ✭✭✭darlett


    It feels like the big project of this generation is to be the Children's Hospital, for which it seems a massive error is building it in inner city. Madness for emergencies with the **** state of traffic. Also thoughtless for parents if children travelling to Dublin for regular treatments as the journey in from M50 can be maddeningly slow. Its crying out to be built on a site near Blanchardstown as was suggested.

    Is there any party with a policy to reconsider this. Do FF agree with FG? It seems like it should be a bigger campaign issue, but I cant see anyone with it as a policy. Tbf, I can't see any policies full stop.


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  • #397
    blanch152
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,851 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    FrancieBrady wrote: »
    Of getting himself some publicity? Course he will, there are plenty who cheer his every utterance since he had a pop at travellers.


    Casey could take a seat in Donegal, he could lose his deposit in Dublin West, you are the only one suggesting he run there.


  • #398
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,589 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    blanch152 wrote: »
    Casey could take a seat in Donegal, he could lose his deposit in Dublin West, you are the only one suggesting he run there.

    I was reacting to a post rather than suggesting anything for Casey.
    Hotmail.com wrote:
    Peter Casey to run in Dublin West?



    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=112294604&postcount=281

    My suggestion would be that he retire. The public have suggested it to him 3 times now.


  • #399
    Skylinehead
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,690 ✭✭✭✭Skylinehead


    darlett wrote: »
    It feels like the big project of this generation is to be the Children's Hospital, for which it seems a massive error is building it in inner city. Madness for emergencies with the **** state of traffic. Also thoughtless for parents if children travelling to Dublin for regular treatments as the journey in from M50 can be maddeningly slow. Its crying out to be built on a site near Blanchardstown as was suggested.

    Is there any party with a policy to reconsider this. Do FF agree with FG? It seems like it should be a bigger campaign issue, but I cant see anyone with it as a policy. Tbf, I can't see any policies full stop.

    Decision was made, construction has started. Would be lunacy to tear it all down and start from scratch now. What was that about cost overruns? Think what they would be having to start again.


  • #400
    hotmail.com
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,367 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    darlett wrote: »
    It feels like the big project of this generation is to be the Children's Hospital, for which it seems a massive error is building it in inner city. Madness for emergencies with the **** state of traffic. Also thoughtless for parents if children travelling to Dublin for regular treatments as the journey in from M50 can be maddeningly slow. Its crying out to be built on a site near Blanchardstown as was suggested.

    Is there any party with a policy to reconsider this. Do FF agree with FG? It seems like it should be a bigger campaign issue, but I cant see anyone with it as a policy. Tbf, I can't see any policies full stop.

    The hospital is linked by Luas and bus and is one stop away from Heuston Station on the Luas.

    Blanch is poorly served by public transport and the M50 is a growing nightmare. So James' makes far more sense.

    I suspect the over expense at James' would have happened at Blanch as well.


  • #401
    darlett
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,316 ✭✭✭darlett


    Skylinehead wrote: »
    Decision was made, construction has started. Would be lunacy to tear it all down and start from scratch now. What was that about cost overruns? Think what they would be having to start again.

    Ooooh! I stand corrected. :oI thought they were still circling around waiting to dig the first sod. Er, well then, it's as you were. As far as the over spend goes, is much of that specific to the site, or is it all equipment etc?


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  • #402
    darlett
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,316 ✭✭✭darlett


    hotmail.com wrote: »
    The hospital is linked by Luas and bus and is one stop away from Heuston Station on the Luas.

    Blanch is poorly served by public transport and the M50 is a growing nightmare. So James' makes far more sense.

    I suspect the over expense at James' would have happened at Blanch as well.

    Probably correct that similar expense calculations would be made for Blanch. But crazy to suggest that James is somehow better for access for the majority of the public than a site connected by motorway. Firstly most people travelling to the st James will have to take on and get past the m50 so if it's as bad as you say they are effected. In truth, outside of rush hour the m50 isn't that bad, and certainly no worse than the roads inside it. The LUAS access is handy for what fraction of people? Even in Dublin? Heuston for people only near a train station in the south part of the country? I dont think even Shane Ross would suggest parents bringing a child to hospital, or visiting them in hospital, by driving to one of these few stations and travelling up to Heuston and then getting the luas. Bus? Well Connolly would have that too.

    The obvious truth is most of the country would and could not get to a hospital by public transport.
    Anyway, ship has already sailed. Oh, does St. James have a port?


  • #403
    McMurphy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,365 ✭✭✭✭McMurphy


    Skylinehead wrote: »
    Decision was made, construction has started. Would be l to tear it all down and start from scratch now. What was that about cost overruns? Think what they would be having to start again.

    They should have built on the curragh imo, govt owned land, handy to the M7, and about twenty minutes away from Dublin.


  • #404
    VinLieger
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,946 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    McMurphy wrote: »
    They should have built on the curragh imo, govt owned land, handy to the M7, and about twenty minutes away from Dublin.

    It had to be linked with an existing hospital, it couldnt be standalone


  • #405
    hotmail.com
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,367 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    darlett wrote: »
    Probably correct that similar expense calculations would be made for Blanch. But crazy to suggest that James is somehow better for access for the majority of the public than a site connected by motorway. Firstly most people travelling to the st James will have to take on and get past the m50 so if it's as bad as you say they are effected. In truth, outside of rush hour the m50 isn't that bad, and certainly no worse than the roads inside it. The LUAS access is handy for what fraction of people? Even in Dublin? Heuston for people only near a train station in the south part of the country? I dont think even Shane Ross would suggest parents bringing a child to hospital, or visiting them in hospital, by driving to one of these few stations and travelling up to Heuston and then getting the luas. Bus? Well Connolly would have that too.

    The obvious truth is most of the country would and could not get to a hospital by public transport.
    Anyway, ship has already sailed. Oh, does St. James have a port?


    Sick children will be transported by ambulance. Visitors and staff can use public transport.

    St James' is also not in the city centre, another myth of this drama.


  • #406
    VinLieger
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,946 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    hotmail.com wrote: »
    Sick children will be transported by ambulance. Visitors and staff can use public transport.

    St James' is also not in the city centre, another myth of this drama.

    All sick children attending the hospital will be transported by ambulance.... Really? So they will send ambulances from kerry and donegal all the way to Dublin? I can tell youve never had to take a child to an A and E.

    Also by every metric it is most deffinitely in the city centre only contrarians like yourself would state otherwise


  • #407
    McMurphy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,365 ✭✭✭✭McMurphy


    VinLieger wrote: »
    It had to be linked with an existing hospital, it couldnt be standalone

    Ok, didn't realise that. Kind of major obstacle from the outset so.


  • #408
    hotmail.com
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,367 ✭✭✭✭hotmail.com


    VinLieger wrote: »
    All sick children attending the hospital will be transported by ambulance.... Really? So they will send ambulances from kerry and donegal all the way to Dublin? I can tell youve never had to take a child to an A and E.

    Also by every metric it is most deffinitely in the city centre only contrarians like yourself would state otherwise

    Very sick children will be taken by ambulance. Less sick children can be taken by car to St James'. Most visitations to hospitals are for staff and visitors, not sick children.

    This isn't being contrarian. It's just stating the obvious. And by the way, not all parents drive and less will drive going into the future.


  • #409
    Skylinehead
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,690 ✭✭✭✭Skylinehead


    darlett wrote: »
    Ooooh! I stand corrected. :oI thought they were still circling around waiting to dig the first sod. Er, well then, it's as you were. As far as the over spend goes, is much of that specific to the site, or is it all equipment etc?

    Not sure, but BAM, the contractor, is very prone to understating costs.


  • #410
    boardise
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,530 ✭✭✭boardise


    I listened to the interview with Martin on the RTE This Week prog today .
    It will be recalled that the Central Bank last Dec said that 34,000 houses would need to be built each year for the next 10 years to keep pace with demand.
    When specifically asked how many houses FF would get built next year -Martin asserted that the figure would be 'MORE THAN THE 34,000
    Central Bank figure ( and the same for subsequent years )
    This to me is quite an extraordinary claim made on National radio and I presume it will receive the media attention it deserves.
    I ,for one ,will hope that the policy can stack up and that the logistics will be outlined for land acquisition , labour and cost.


  • #411
    CrabRevolution
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,957 ✭✭✭CrabRevolution


    boardise wrote: »
    I listened to the interview with Martin on the RTE This Week prog today .
    It will be recalled that the Central Bank last Dec said that 34,000 houses would need to be built each year for the next 10 years to keep pace with demand.
    When specifically asked how many houses FF would get built next year -Martin asserted that the figure would be 'MORE THAN THE 34,000
    Central Bank figure ( and the same for subsequent years )
    This to me is quite an extraordinary claim made on National radio and I presume it will receive the media attention it deserves.
    I ,for one ,will hope that the policy can stack up and that the logistics will be outlined for land acquisition , labour and cost.


    Is presume the 34'000 figure is both private and social housing? Is he promising to build 35'000 social houses a year at a cost of 10s of billions? Or how does he expect to create an explosion in private house building?


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  • #412
    Bishop of hope
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,255 ✭✭✭Bishop of hope


    A meltdown of Ministers and a loss of any chance of 2nd seats in most constituencies is what's the fear among FG now.
    It seems they are taking the "questionable" poll seriously.
    Expect the billions of promises coming at you soon, money for everything that has suddenly magically jumped off a tree.

    https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2020/shock-poll-leaves-fg-fearful-of-a-ministerial-meltdown-38875629.html


  • #413
    Ludo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,015 ✭✭✭Ludo


    Bishop of hope wrote: »
    A meltdown of Ministers and a loss of any chance of 2nd seats in most constituencies is what's the fear among FG now.
    It seems they are taking the "questionable" poll seriously.
    Expect the billions of promises coming at you soon, money for everything that has suddenly magically jumped off a tree.

    https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2020/shock-poll-leaves-fg-fearful-of-a-ministerial-meltdown-38875629.html

    So the same as every other party are already doing then.


  • #414
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Bishop of hope wrote: »
    A meltdown of Ministers and a loss of any chance of 2nd seats in most constituencies is what's the fear among FG now.
    It seems they are taking the "questionable" poll seriously.
    Expect the billions of promises coming at you soon, money for everything that has suddenly magically jumped off a tree.

    https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2020/shock-poll-leaves-fg-fearful-of-a-ministerial-meltdown-38875629.html
    Yeah, can't beat a mic to encourage people to offer their "expert" opinions.


  • #415
    Bishop of hope
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,255 ✭✭✭Bishop of hope


    Ludo wrote: »
    So the same as every other party are already doing then.

    The old song comes to mind, "anything you can do I can do better, I can do anything better than you".


  • #416
    Zubeneschamali
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,686 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    RTÉ was traditionally very pro FF simply because RTÉ is semistate and FF were the traditional party of Government.

    Jobs were based on who you knew, so you had Gerry Ryan breezing in because he was a pal of the Haugheys. Miriam O'Callaghan's brother is FF, Tubridy's brother was a FF candidate, one grandfather a FF TD, the other Todd Andrews so connections to loads of FF TDs and Minsters over there, FF once approached Gaybo to run for President and so on.

    It is in the water at Montrose.


  • #417
    L1011
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 72,777 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Zubeneschamali wrote: »
    RTÉ was traditionally very pro FF simply because RTÉ is semistate and FF were the traditional party of Government.

    Jobs were based on who you knew, so you had Gerry Ryan breezing in because he was a pal of the Haugheys. Miriam O'Callaghan's brother is FF, Tubridy's brother was a FF candidate, one grandfather a FF TD, the other Todd Andrews so connections to loads of FF TDs and Minsters over there, FF once approached Gaybo to run for President and so on.

    It is in the water at Montrose.

    On the flipside of that, in the 80s, the production and technical side of RTÉ was a hotbed of Workers Party members. I'm not sure either really exists much anymore (except for the Tubbs/Miriam direct family connections)


  • #418
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Bishop of hope wrote: »
    The old song comes to mind, "anything you can do I can do better, I can do anything better than you".
    Otherwise known as an Irish election campaign! Starting to look suspiciously like the stupidity of the 2007 campaign!


  • #419
    RobertKK
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,771 ✭✭✭✭RobertKK


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    No matter what your views Varadkar is 100% right here.

    https://twitter.com/oconnellhugh/status/1218898285479583746


    Every time FF has been in government they have bust up the country.

    This is fact and some want to ignore it because they don't like Varadkar.

    The country will be busted up again.

    Leave FG in power long enough and its the same, their election policy in 2007 was spend, spend, spend, they did not see the impending disaster either.

    Ireland was part of the global downturn over a decade ago. FF did not cause the banking crisis in the US, UK or rest of Europe.
    As a very globalised economy it would not mattered who was in control of the reigns.


  • #420
    Zubeneschamali
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,686 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    L1011 wrote: »
    On the flipside of that, in the 80s, the production and technical side of RTÉ was a hotbed of Workers Party members. I'm not sure either really exists much anymore (except for the Tubbs/Miriam direct family connections)

    Back in the 70s, Hall's Pictorial Weekly morphed from a silly parody of regional news into a hugely popular satirical show during the 73-77 FG led coalition, lashing into the government. They dialled it way back when FF got in again, and RTÉ cancelled it altogether without giving any reasons when Haughey became Taoiseach, because heaven knows there was no need for satire after that.


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  • #421
    Phoebas
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,371 ✭✭✭Phoebas


    RobertKK wrote: »
    Leave FG in power long enough and its the same, their election policy in 2007 was spend, spend, spend, they did not see the impending disaster either.

    Ireland was part of the global downturn over a decade ago. FF did not cause the banking crisis in the US, UK or rest of Europe.
    As a very globalised economy it would not mattered who was in control of the reigns.

    That's a real cop out.
    It's the job of the government, not the opposition, to manage the economy and they have the entire civil service at their disposal to manage risks to it.

    It's true that the government don't control the world economy, but they do control how we deal with what it throws at us. FF made a complete mess of that.

    Have we all forgotten that week when the IMF arrived in town and FF cabinet ministers were lying through their teeth to us about it?


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