General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

Wanderer78 · 19-01-2020 09:19AM

is_that_so wrote:

Are you saying they sleep around?

I'd say they re a more lgbt+ party to be fair

NIMAN · 19-01-2020 09:19AM

So FG and SF are neck and neck?

is_that_so · 19-01-2020 09:23AM

NIMAN wrote: »

So FG and SF are neck and neck?

Probably but definitely more likely to be a lot closer than this. This one was called before Leo polled the GE, about the time of the RIC thing.

An Ciarraioch · 19-01-2020 09:26AM

is_that_so wrote: »

Probably but definitely more likely to be a lot closer than this. This one was called before Leo polled the GE, about the time of the RIC thing.

Also, the B&A SF figures tend to be inflated compared to Red C and Ipsos-MORI.

golfball37 · 19-01-2020 09:27AM

Varadkar does not deserve another term for his handling of insurance fraud within his own party. The thoughts of Martin being Taoiseach however makes me ill. A horrible vista

is_that_so · 19-01-2020 09:31AM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Also, the B&A SF figures tend to be inflated compared to Red C and Ipsos-MORI.

Yeah, by quite a bit. They've often had them in the twenties. Have more confidence in both of those. Lots of oddities about this, not least the time it was run but I guess they have a contract couldn't have known. After all a poll is a snapshot of the mood.

blanch152 · 19-01-2020 10:24AM

SafeSurfer wrote: »

Maybe people will think of their pockets and the BS pledge to abolish USC and vote ABFG.

The poll shows that people aren’t voting ABFG, they are voting FF and to a lesser extent, Greens.

SF have never got above 20% in a poll and look like they never will, while always performing worse in an election than a poll, Soc Dems are an irrelevance, independent Alliance have collapsed, I4C in Europe, Labour in the doldrums while who knows which party Paul Murphy is in now.

Given the open goals that FG have handed them, I am amazed at how poorly they have performed.

LuasSimon · 19-01-2020 10:28AM

Charlie Flanagan MP for Laois has to take a lot of credit for Fine Gaels nosedive in the poll with his march for the Black and Tans and his hatred of nationalists.

LuasSimon · 19-01-2020 10:34AM

When we’re Fine Gael last as low as 20% in the poll . Must be very low in some regions . South Dublin is bound to still have a high FG voting preference considering all the wealth there and you would have most elderly farmers blindly voting FG but there vote amongst young people in many areas must be fair low .
For many young people Fine Gael are the party of the rich and many are so rich they have no comprehension of the issues so many face to survive on a daily basis all over the country .

retalivity · 19-01-2020 10:38AM

LuasSimon wrote: »

Charlie Flanagan MP for Laois has to take a lot of credit for Fine Gaels nosedive in the poll with his march for the Black and Tans and his hatred of nationalists.

Youve mispelled "Queen's County", as Mr. Tanagan would say

seligehgit · 19-01-2020 11:01AM

Sir Oxman wrote: »

Sunday Times Poll
Fine Gael has plummeted to its lowest ever rating in The Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes polling series, falling seven points in a month to 20%, while Fianna Fail is up five to 32% at the outset of the election.

Sample size less than 1,000 and a decent margin of error 3.3%.

Could be 6.6% swing.

That 10% independents and others figure gives no breakdown to assist in indicating the number of undecided voters.

McMurphy · 19-01-2020 11:09AM

seligehgit wrote: »

Sample size less than 1,000 and a decent margin of error 3.3%.

Could be 6.6% swing.

That 10% independents and others figure gives no breakdown to assist in indicating the number of undecided voters.

Have a look at when the poll was conducted. Could be a swing alright, things may well get worse.

FrancieBrady · 19-01-2020 11:11AM

is_that_so wrote: »

Lots of health warning about them and the poll.
Their support level for SF is way above the average and has been consistently out of sync with other polls. Most other polls see SF on 15% at most and that is the long-term trend.
They were outside the MOE for the last GE for FF and just about on it for FG.
They use the smallest sample, under 1000.
Don't knows have been in the 22%-28% in their polls over the last year. December was 28% so January would probably have been similar enough.

It is tabloid fodder for now and a bit of faux excitement for journalists to badger parties with. You would expect other polls will show it to be tighter but FF may indeed have the edge.

EDIT: FF on 49% in Munster according to Gavin Reilly on Twitter! Not sure how they worked that out.

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1218687175237218305?s=19

???

Their last poll in 2016 was

FG 30 Lab 4 FF 22 SF 15

the parties finished

FG 25.5 Lab 6.6 FF 24.3 SF 13.8

Not hard to see which party support they got most wrong.

RedC's Final poll was:

FG 30 Lab 7 FF 20 SF 15

hotmail.com · 19-01-2020 11:14AM

Peter Casey to run in Dublin West?

is_that_so · 19-01-2020 11:17AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

???

Their last poll in 2016 was

FG 30 Lab 4 FF 22 SF 15

the parties finished

FG 25.5 Lab 6.6 FF 24.3 SF 13.8

Not hard to see which party support they got most wrong.

RedC's Final poll was:

FG 30 Lab 7 FF 20 SF 15

So everyone got it wrong. I'm referring to their ongoing polls. All of out sync and as others have said SF have never been anywhere near 20%. I find other polls consistently more believable.

hotmail.com · 19-01-2020 11:21AM

No doubt that this opinion poll is flawed with a smaller sample size and they over estimate the SF vote.

Nevertheless it is reflecting a general trend away from FG to FF.

FF were the largest party in the Local Elections last year after all. It seems now that it's almost unstoppable now - FF will be the largest party in the Dail after this election and Michael Martin will be Taoiseach.

blanch152 · 19-01-2020 11:22AM

McMurphy wrote: »

Have a look at when the poll was conducted. Could be a swing alright, things may well get worse.

It is really the last pre-election poll, rather than the first poll of the election campaign, given when it was taken.

FG are heading out of government, that is the nature of modern politics. The fact that only two parties - FF and the Greens - are picking up votes must be a worry for the others.

FrancieBrady · 19-01-2020 11:24AM

hotmail.com wrote: »

Peter Casey to run in Dublin West?

He'll get a lot of encouragement from this poll. He's in it for the publicity/ego so he probably will.

blanch152 · 19-01-2020 11:29AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

He'll get a lot of encouragement from this poll. He's in it for the publicity/ego so he probably will.

Wouldn’t have a chance

hotmail.com · 19-01-2020 11:31AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

He'll get a lot of encouragement from this poll. He's in it for the publicity/ego so he probably will.

Well Leo is a dead cert in Dublin 15. I'm not sure how Casey will affect the constituency if at all.

FrancieBrady · 19-01-2020 11:33AM

blanch152 wrote: »

Wouldn’t have a chance

Of getting himself some publicity? Course he will, there are plenty who cheer his every utterance since he had a pop at travellers.

is_that_so · 19-01-2020 11:40AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Of getting himself some publicity? Course he will, there are plenty who cheer his every utterance since he had a pop at travellers.

And then what? He'll be of retirement age the next time any election comes along.

FrancieBrady · 19-01-2020 11:41AM

is_that_so wrote: »

And then what? He'll be of retirement age the next time any election comes along.

He might retire and stop embarrassing himself and us?

Kermit.de.frog · 19-01-2020 11:53AM

The Brits will be claiming we punished Varadkar for being against Brexit.

McMurphy · 19-01-2020 12:01PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The Brits will be claiming we punished Varadkar for being against Brexit.

Oh please.

Turbohymac · 19-01-2020 12:06PM

Another election..total waste of taxpayers money..the whole system needs reform..pointless at present whichever party wins..for me I've heard all the same promises 45 years ago and still people actually listen to their empty promises..I'd happily go as far as saying our health system was even better back then..

VinLieger · 19-01-2020 12:45PM

FF also promising to put retirement age back to 65, no wonder they are flying ahead, turkeys voting for christmas

NIMAN · 19-01-2020 12:49PM

VinLieger wrote: »

FF also promising to put retirement age back to 65, no wonder they are flying ahead, turkeys voting for christmas

Promise things you can't ever deliver, I suppose thats what all political parties do.

So SF and FF are going to end homelessness, fix the HSE, solve the drug issue, allow us all to retire at 65......

They must have planted an awful lot of magic money trees.

Kermit.de.frog · 19-01-2020 12:52PM

Most FF thing you will see today...

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NIMAN · 19-01-2020 01:00PM

Greta would love him!

General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

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