General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

hotmail.com · 19-01-2020 12:10AM

robman60 wrote: »

If anyone is to bounce, I'd be thinking greens and not SF.

Possibly.

These polls may give rise to coalition talk and move the focus away from policies.

If it looks like the Greens or Sinn Fein can form a government with either of the two big parties, we can expect 3 weeks of coalition talk.

Sierra Oscar · 19-01-2020 12:15AM

hotmail.com wrote: »

Interesting!

Could there be a Sinn Fein bounce?

I doubt it. Sinn Féin haven't had a great week either. I'd say it's more likely that a big gap has opened up between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. Could be 10%.

Worth noting that if this transpires it won't suit Fianna Fáil at all. They would much prefer to go under the radar for the campaign. Worked well for them in 2016.

FrancieBrady · 19-01-2020 12:17AM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

I doubt it. Sinn Féin haven't had a great week either. I'd say it's more likely that a big gap has opened up between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. Could be 10%.

I doubt the Holohan stuff will figure...Thursday is usually the poll day for these is it not?

Sierra Oscar · 19-01-2020 12:18AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I doubt the Holohan stuff will figure...Thursday is usually the poll day for these is it not?

That's true actually. The polling might even pre-date the election somewhat?

PopePalpatine · 19-01-2020 12:19AM

hotmail.com wrote: »

For a Labour TD to oppose the Bus Connects and the improvement of public transport is another reason this guy needs the heave ho.

He's standing up for those with large gardens - this is not supposed to be Labour territory.

Ugh, that reminds me, my bus route takes me past Joe Costello's office which had a "Communities Not Corridors" poster take pride of place in its front window.

Water John · 19-01-2020 12:20AM

Mon- Thurs this week IWT.

sid waddell · 19-01-2020 12:20AM

Did this out this morning for anybody interested.

In the UK election I predicted the Tories would get 359 and Labour 199 so wasn't too far out though I did overestimate the Liberal Democrats.

A good FF poll tonight and you'd have to pile another few seats on top of what I've predicted here, Wicklow and Louth anyway.

Fine Gael election campaigns when in government are what would happen if the Tories didn't have a mass propaganda machine behind them, because Fine Gael dont have one.

1. CARLOW – KK (5)
1 FG 3 FF 1 GREEN

2. CAVAN-MONAGHAN (5)
2 FG 2 FF 1 SF

3. CLARE (4)
2 FF 2 FG

4. DUBLIN BAY NORTH (5)
1 FG 1 FF 1 LAB 1 GREEN 1 SF

5. DUBLIN BAY SOUTH (4)
1 FG 1 FF 1 GREEN 1 LAB

6. DUN LAOIGHAIRE (4)
1 FF 1 GREEN 1 FG 1 SOLIDARITY (BOYD BARRETT)

7. DUBLIN CENTRAL (4)
1 SF 1 FG 1 SOC DEM 1 GREEN

8. DUBLIN FINGAL (5)
1 FG 2 FF 1 LAB 1 GREEN

9. DUBLIN NORTH WEST (3)
1 SOC DEM 1 SF 1 FF

10. DUBLIN MID WEST (4)
1 FF 1 FG 1 SF 1 SOLIDARITY (KENNY)

11. DUBLIN RATHDOWN (3)
2 FG, 1 GREEN

12. DUBLIN SOUTH CENTRAL (4)
1 SF 1 IND (JOAN COLLINS) 1 FF 1 LAB

13. DUBLIN SOUTH WEST (5)
1 FG 1 FF 1 SOLIDARITY (PAUL MURPHY) 1 SF 1 GREEN

14. DUBLIN WEST (4)
1 FG 1 FF 1 SF 1 GREEN

15. CORK EAST (4)
2 FF 1 FG 1 LAB

16. CORK NORTH WEST (3)
2 FF 1 FG

17. CORK NORTH CENTRAL (4)
1 SF 1 FG 1 FF 1 SOLIDARITY (BARRY)

18. CORK SOUTH CENTRAL (4)
2 FF 1 FG 1 GREEN

19. CORK SOUTH WEST (3)
1 FF 1 FG 1 IND (MICHAEL COLLINS)

20. DONEGAL(5)
2 FF 2 SF 1 IND (THOMAS PRINGLE)

21. GALWAY EAST (3)
1 IND (ANNE RABBITTE) 1 FF 1 FG

22. GALWAY WEST (5)
2 FF 1 FG 2 IND (NOEL GREALISH, CATHERINE CONNOLLY)

23. KERRY (5)
2 IND (HEALY RAES) 1 FG 2 FF

24. KILDARE NORTH (4)
1 SOC DEM 1 FG 1 FF 1 GREEN

25. KILDARE SOUTH (4)
3 FF 1 FG

26. LAOIS-OFFALY (5)
2 FF 2 FG 1 SF

27. LIMERICK CITY (4)
1 FF 1 FG 1 SF 1 LABOUR

28. LIMERICK COUNTY (3)
2 FF 1 FG

29. LONGFORD-WESTMEATH (4)
1 IND (MORAN) 1 FG 2 FF

30. LOUTH (5)
1 SF 1 GREEN 1 LAB 1 FF 1 FG

31. MAYO (4)
2 FG 2 FF

32. MEATH EAST (3)
1 FF 2 FG

33. MEATH WEST (3)
2 FF 1 FG 1

34. ROSCOMMON-GALWAY (3)
2 IND (NAUGHTEN, FITZMAURICE) 1 FF

35. SLIGO-LEITRIM (4)
2 FF 1 SF 1 IND (HARKIN)

36. TIPPERARY (5)
3 IND (LOWRY, MCGRATH, HEALY), 2 FF

37. WATERFORD (4)
1 FF 1 FG 1 SF 1 IND (SHANAHAN)

38. WEXFORD (5)
2 FG 2 FF 1 LAB

39. WICKLOW (5)
2 FG 1 FF 1 SF 1 GREEN

Totals:
FG 41
FF 58
GREEN 13
SF 17
LAB 8
SOC DEM 3
OTHERS 20

padohaodha · 19-01-2020 12:26AM

Only one ff candidate in limerick county. Can't win 2 seats

An Ciarraioch · 19-01-2020 12:28AM

sid waddell wrote: »

Did this out this morning for anybody interested.

In the UK election I predicted the Tories would get 359 and Labour 199 so wasn't too far out though I did overestimate the Liberal Democrats.

A good FF poll tonight and you'd have to pile another few seats on top of what I've predicted here, Wicklow and Louth anyway.

Fine Gael election campaigns when in government are what would happen if the Tories didn't have a mass propaganda machine behind them, because Fine Gael dont have one.

1. CARLOW – KK (5)
1 FG 3 FF 1 GREEN

2. CAVAN-MONAGHAN (5)
2 FG 2 FF 1 SF

3. CLARE (4)
2 FF 2 FG

4. DUBLIN BAY NORTH (5)
1 FG 1 FF 1 LAB 1 GREEN 1 SF

5. DUBLIN BAY SOUTH (4)
1 FG 1 FF 1 GREEN 1 LAB

6. DUN LAOIGHAIRE (4)
1 FF 1 GREEN 1 FG 1 SOLIDARITY (BOYD BARRETT)

7. DUBLIN CENTRAL (4)
1 SF 1 FG 1 SOC DEM 1 GREEN

8. DUBLIN FINGAL (5)
1 FG 2 FF 1 LAB 1 GREEN

9. DUBLIN NORTH WEST (3)
1 SOC DEM 1 SF 1 FF

10. DUBLIN MID WEST (4)
1 FF 1 FG 1 SF 1 SOLIDARITY (KENNY)

11. DUBLIN RATHDOWN (3)
2 FG, 1 GREEN

12. DUBLIN SOUTH CENTRAL (4)
1 SF 1 IND (JOAN COLLINS) 1 FF 1 LAB

13. DUBLIN SOUTH WEST (5)
1 FG 1 FF 1 SOLIDARITY (PAUL MURPHY) 1 SF 1 GREEN

14. DUBLIN WEST (4)
1 FG 1 FF 1 SF 1 GREEN

15. CORK EAST (4)
2 FF 1 FG 1 LAB

16. CORK NORTH WEST (3)
2 FF 1 FG

17. CORK NORTH CENTRAL (4)
1 SF 1 FG 1 FF 1 SOLIDARITY (BARRY)

18. CORK SOUTH CENTRAL (4)
2 FF 1 FG 1 GREEN

19. CORK SOUTH WEST (3)
1 FF 1 FG 1 IND (MICHAEL COLLINS)

20. DONEGAL(5)
2 FF 2 SF 1 IND (THOMAS PRINGLE)

21. GALWAY EAST (3)
1 IND (ANNE RABBITTE) 1 FF 1 FG

22. GALWAY WEST (5)
2 FF 1 FG 2 IND (NOEL GREALISH, CATHERINE CONNOLLY)

23. KERRY (5)
2 IND (HEALY RAES) 1 FG 2 FF

24. KILDARE NORTH (4)
1 SOC DEM 1 FG 1 FF 1 GREEN

25. KILDARE SOUTH (4)
3 FF 1 FG

26. LAOIS-OFFALY (5)
2 FF 2 FG 1 SF

27. LIMERICK CITY (4)
1 FF 1 FG 1 SF 1 LABOUR

28. LIMERICK COUNTY (3)
2 FF 1 FG

29. LONGFORD-WESTMEATH (4)
1 IND (MORAN) 1 FG 2 FF

30. LOUTH (5)
1 SF 1 GREEN 1 LAB 1 FF 1 FG

31. MAYO (4)
2 FG 2 FF

32. MEATH EAST (3)
1 FF 2 FG

33. MEATH WEST (3)
2 FF 1 FG 1

34. ROSCOMMON-GALWAY (3)
2 IND (NAUGHTEN, FITZMAURICE) 1 FF

35. SLIGO-LEITRIM (4)
2 FF 1 SF 1 IND (HARKIN)

36. TIPPERARY (5)
3 IND (LOWRY, MCGRATH, HEALY), 2 FF

37. WATERFORD (4)
1 FF 1 FG 1 SF 1 IND (SHANAHAN)

38. WEXFORD (5)
2 FG 2 FF 1 LAB

39. WICKLOW (5)
2 FG 1 FF 1 SF 1 GREEN

Totals:
FG 41
FF 58
GREEN 13
SF 17
LAB 8
SOC DEM 3
OTHERS 20

That would definitely see Leo gone as FG leader, and an FF-Green coalition would have a range of options in terms of other partners and pacts.

sid waddell · 19-01-2020 12:31AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I think the 20 - 30+ theory must be the big shock.

Wouldn't surprise me with the start FG have had and a very bad lead in too, optics have been bad for a long time.

FF running on silent this last while too. Which seems to be working for them.

Momentum or lack of momentum tends to be amplified in a campaign/election.

Thus we had the PDs getting 14 seats in 1987, the Spring tide in 1992, FF nearly getting a majority in 2002, FG doing similar in 2011 and a record Labour seat haul in 2011.

We had the PDs collapsing in 1989, Labour halving in seat numbers in 1997, Fine Gael's collapse in 2002, Fianna Fail's in 2011 as well as the Greens that year, Labour's in 2016 and to a lesser extent Fine Gael also collapsing in 2016.

Sinn Fein tend to be outside these big swings, certainly in terms of positive momentum as they still struggle on transfers, they haven't had a really bad election yet since they became an electoral force in 1997/2002.

The Greens were the only party going into this election with real positive momentum and a buzz about them.

Fianna Fail are beginning to pick up momentum simply by just being around to pick up the pieces from Fine Gael and because, like the Tories, their vote is traditionally very sticky, people tend to always come back to them out of sheer habit.

Heraldoffreeent · 19-01-2020 12:33AM

sid waddell wrote: »

Did this out this morning for anybody interested.

In the UK election I predicted the Tories would get 359 and Labour 199 so wasn't too far out though I did overestimate the Liberal Democrats.

A good FF poll tonight and you'd have to pile another few seats on top of what I've predicted here, Wicklow and Louth anyway.

Fine Gael election campaigns when in government are what would happen if the Tories didn't have a mass propaganda machine behind them, because Fine Gael dont have one.

1. CARLOW – KK (5)
1 FG 3 FF 1 GREEN

2. CAVAN-MONAGHAN (5)
2 FG 2 FF 1 SF

3. CLARE (4)
2 FF 2 FG

4. DUBLIN BAY NORTH (5)
1 FG 1 FF 1 LAB 1 GREEN 1 SF

5. DUBLIN BAY SOUTH (4)
1 FG 1 FF 1 GREEN 1 LAB

6. DUN LAOIGHAIRE (4)
1 FF 1 GREEN 1 FG 1 SOLIDARITY (BOYD BARRETT)

7. DUBLIN CENTRAL (4)
1 SF 1 FG 1 SOC DEM 1 GREEN

8. DUBLIN FINGAL (5)
1 FG 2 FF 1 LAB 1 GREEN

9. DUBLIN NORTH WEST (3)
1 SOC DEM 1 SF 1 FF

10. DUBLIN MID WEST (4)
1 FF 1 FG 1 SF 1 SOLIDARITY (KENNY)

11. DUBLIN RATHDOWN (3)
2 FG, 1 GREEN

12. DUBLIN SOUTH CENTRAL (4)
1 SF 1 IND (JOAN COLLINS) 1 FF 1 LAB

13. DUBLIN SOUTH WEST (5)
1 FG 1 FF 1 SOLIDARITY (PAUL MURPHY) 1 SF 1 GREEN

14. DUBLIN WEST (4)
1 FG 1 FF 1 SF 1 GREEN

15. CORK EAST (4)
2 FF 1 FG 1 LAB

16. CORK NORTH WEST (3)
2 FF 1 FG

17. CORK NORTH CENTRAL (4)
1 SF 1 FG 1 FF 1 SOLIDARITY (BARRY)

18. CORK SOUTH CENTRAL (4)
2 FF 1 FG 1 GREEN

19. CORK SOUTH WEST (3)
1 FF 1 FG 1 IND (MICHAEL COLLINS)

20. DONEGAL(5)
2 FF 2 SF 1 IND (THOMAS PRINGLE)

21. GALWAY EAST (3)
1 IND (ANNE RABBITTE) 1 FF 1 FG

22. GALWAY WEST (5)
2 FF 1 FG 2 IND (NOEL GREALISH, CATHERINE CONNOLLY)

23. KERRY (5)
2 IND (HEALY RAES) 1 FG 2 FF

24. KILDARE NORTH (4)
1 SOC DEM 1 FG 1 FF 1 GREEN

25. KILDARE SOUTH (4)
3 FF 1 FG

26. LAOIS-OFFALY (5)
2 FF 2 FG 1 SF

27. LIMERICK CITY (4)
1 FF 1 FG 1 SF 1 LABOUR

28. LIMERICK COUNTY (3)
2 FF 1 FG

29. LONGFORD-WESTMEATH (4)
1 IND (MORAN) 1 FG 2 FF

30. LOUTH (5)
1 SF 1 GREEN 1 LAB 1 FF 1 FG

31. MAYO (4)
2 FG 2 FF

32. MEATH EAST (3)
1 FF 2 FG

33. MEATH WEST (3)
2 FF 1 FG 1

34. ROSCOMMON-GALWAY (3)
2 IND (NAUGHTEN, FITZMAURICE) 1 FF

35. SLIGO-LEITRIM (4)
2 FF 1 SF 1 IND (HARKIN)

36. TIPPERARY (5)
3 IND (LOWRY, MCGRATH, HEALY), 2 FF

37. WATERFORD (4)
1 FF 1 FG 1 SF 1 IND (SHANAHAN)

38. WEXFORD (5)
2 FG 2 FF 1 LAB

39. WICKLOW (5)
2 FG 1 FF 1 SF 1 GREEN

Totals:
FG 41
FF 58
GREEN 13
SF 17
LAB 8
SOC DEM 3
OTHERS 20

Mary Fitz has to be in with a shout in Dublin Central, and Anne Rabbitte isn't Ind, She's FF, Sean Canney is the IND.

FrancieBrady · 19-01-2020 12:34AM

Cavan/Monaghan is a 4 seater Sid.

sid waddell · 19-01-2020 12:38AM

padohaodha wrote: »

Only one ff candidate in limerick county. Can't win 2 seats

That would be insane if true. I presume they can still nominate somebody, what's the deadline? It's not as if Collins would be in any danger by having a running mate, FG and FF will be taking all three seats here between them for sure.

Sierra Oscar · 19-01-2020 12:41AM

sid waddell wrote: »

That would be insane if true. I presume they can still nominate somebody, what's the deadline? It's not as if Collins would be in any danger by having a running mate, FG and FF will be taking all three seats here between them for sure.

It's only one candidate for FF there are the moment. Close of nominations isn't until January 22nd so it wouldn't surprise me if there are a few additions yet.

Liberta Per Gli Ultra · 19-01-2020 12:43AM

You left the "Solidarity" out of Solidarity-PBP in your poll.

https://www.irishtimes.com/election2020/solidarity-pbp-say-alternative-left-government-possible-1.4142986

sid waddell · 19-01-2020 12:43AM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Cavan/Monaghan is a 4 seater Sid.

Was in 2016, it's back up to 5 now.

Dublin Central and Kildare North have gone from 3 seaters to 4 seaters with Laois-Offaly being combined from two 3 seaters into one 5 seater.

160 seats overall this time, up from 158 in 2016.

padohaodha · 19-01-2020 12:50AM

The Collins mafia won't allow the slightest threat to them so only one candidate for FF. 2 FG will get elected though both insipid. O'Donoghue IND only one with an outside shot

FrancieBrady · 19-01-2020 12:53AM

sid waddell wrote: »

Was in 2016, it's back up to 5 now.

Dublin Central and Kildare North have gone from 3 seaters to 4 seaters with Laois-Offaly being combined from two 3 seaters into one 5 seater.

160 seats overall this time, up from 158 in 2016.

Of course. Apologies..brainfart!

Water John · 19-01-2020 12:55AM

MM simply tells him he won't be a Minister if he doesn't, if the figures show they should run a second candidate.

McMurphy · 19-01-2020 12:57AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

https://twitter.com/MHealyRae/status/1218667407285407749

This is the level folks

I'll just leave this here.

https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/election-2020/fine-gael-removes-controversial-election-2020-campaign-video-within-12-hours-of-being-posted-online-38872531.html

Sir Oxman · 19-01-2020 01:07AM

Sunday Times Poll
Fine Gael has plummeted to its lowest ever rating in The Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes polling series, falling seven points in a month to 20%, while Fianna Fail is up five to 32% at the outset of the election.

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Sierra Oscar · 19-01-2020 01:08AM

Christ, that's some hammering for Fine Gael.

hotmail.com · 19-01-2020 01:10AM

Sir Oxman wrote: »

Sunday Times Poll
Fine Gael has plummeted to its lowest ever rating in The Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes polling series, falling seven points in a month to 20%, while Fianna Fail is up five to 32% at the outset of the election.

Confirmation that Leo isn't that popular after all.

KevRossi · 19-01-2020 01:10AM

sid waddell · 19-01-2020 01:10AM

The divil ya know.

blackcard · 19-01-2020 01:11AM

Sir Oxman wrote: »

Sunday Times Poll
Fine Gael has plummeted to its lowest ever rating in The Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes polling series, falling seven points in a month to 20%, while Fianna Fail is up five to 32% at the outset of the election.

FF and SF coalition home and hosed. All is forgiven for FF

hotmail.com · 19-01-2020 01:12AM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

I doubt it. Sinn Féin haven't had a great week either. I'd say it's more likely that a big gap has opened up between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. Could be 10%.

Worth noting that if this transpires it won't suit Fianna Fáil at all. They would much prefer to go under the radar for the campaign. Worked well for them in 2016.

Correctly predicted.

Water John · 19-01-2020 01:12AM

Didn't see that gap coming. Thought Greens might have a good flip.
I suspect FF will start releasing a raft of policies in the middle of the campaign.

Sir Oxman · 19-01-2020 01:12AM

Is the ST poll the one that overestimates SF all the time by about 5-7%?
The shifts in FG and FF are statistically relevant for sure.
Look at Greens - not much movement there at all and as for Labour...

antimatterx · 19-01-2020 01:13AM

****, we're done.

Need to really throw the kitchen sink at the campaign now to catch FF

General Election and Government Formation Megathread (see post #1)

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