Tesla/Lithium stocks discussion

drunkmonkey

It's a good point about no subsidies for the competition either. Seems like there bringing out a 2k performance upgrade for the long range awd. I take back what I said about the used market, that will safeguard it for a bit longer than I thought.

themossinator

seems like the market is betting on Tesla meeting their end of year sales targets? maybe a buy the rumour sell the news type situation incoming - I wouldn't chase it up here anyway

lucky john

there are so many fingers just waiting for the $420 to be hit. So close..

lucky john

lucky john wrote: »

there are so many fingers just waiting for the $420 to be hit. So close..

BINGO

Thargor

Up 88% in 6 months!

Sabre Man

Record deliveries in Q4 2019

https://electrek.co/2020/01/03/tesla-record-deliveries-q4-2019/

unkel

Over $453. Musk's 22% of TSLA now worth $18 billion

I've no sympathy for the big shorts, we know who they are. But I worry about some of the little shorts - they must really hurt, hope none of them are in financial ruin because of the irrational hatred some of them seem to have for Tesla. You'd wonder where that came from.

Personally I would have nearly doubled my investment in a year if I'd held onto my shares. It wasn't to be Can't complain, I made a substantial profit.

JMMCapital

unkel wrote: »

Over $453. Musk's 22% of TSLA now worth $18 billion

I've no sympathy for the big shorts, we know who they are. But I worry about some of the little shorts - they must really hurt, hope none of them are in financial ruin because of the irrational hatred some of them seem to have for Tesla. You'd wonder where that came from.

Personally I would have nearly doubled my investment in a year if I'd held onto my shares. It wasn't to be Can't complain, I made a substantial profit.

I have listened to Many of the short sellers on a number of occasions and have to agree with them firstly the fact that most senior management are leaving and with huge severance packages is by no means a good thing. (I would be worried if I was a shareholder)

The stock price is clearly way too overvalued and is worth close to zero when you take a closer look into the financial statements, the 12 month income is under just 200 million dollars which is terrible it has taken 20 billion from investors to get here. The company is not worth anywhere close to market value of 80 billion.

I’m not going to lie The Model S was amazing but around that time the rest of the world was slow and is now catching up look at Porsche’s new model for example, there will be many more to come...

Listening to Chanos he highlights two key items from the recent shareholder conference call firstly, production has stalled for model S to 45,000 per quarter which should be slightly worrying for shareholders. Secondly, the margins in producing over in China will be relatively the same as in Fremont so what’s the point of setting up over there.

Look at solar city which was going to zero before taking it over for $20 a share (many of the Tesla short sellers had positions in solar city) if you read the lawsuits you will see the company was going to the walls anyway the bonds were hitting 20%. So the bears have already won round 1.

Sabre Man

Meanwhile in Gerrmany, Mercedes EQC flops with 55 units sold in Germany to date. Ouch!

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-killer-mercedes-benz-eqc-flops-germany/

JMMCapital

Sabre Man wrote: »

Meanwhile in Gerrmany, Mercedes EQC flops with 55 units sold in Germany to date. Ouch!

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-killer-mercedes-benz-eqc-flops-germany/

I would question that source..

lucky john

JMMCapital wrote: »

I would question that source..

https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article204706654/Elektroauto-Mercedes-EQC-Nur-19-Autos-im-November-zugelassen.html

Welt is very reputable and a lot better than the source you got this "production has stalled for model S to 45,000 per quarter " from. They did 7337 in Q419

As for Tesla killers, "look at Porsche’s new model for example". Look away.
The M3 performance matches or beats the Porsche Taycan is any comparison except price where the difference is stark...M3 preformance= $55,000 Porsche Taycan Turbo = $150,000.
https://insideevs.com/reviews/371526/porsche-taycan-vs-tesla-model-3-comparison/

I'll be surprised if the Taycan sells as many units in 10 years as the M3 sold in 2019.

JMM you might need to question what Chanos says now and again. He may not be the best authority on TSLA but at the end of the day it's your choice.

Sabre Man

JMMCapital wrote: »

I would question that source..

How about www.mercedes-fans.de then?

https://www.mercedes-fans.de/magazin/news/mercedes-benz-eqc-entaeuschende-zulassungszahlen-flop-statt-top-im-november-wurden-nur-19-eqc-in-deutschland-zugelassen.15381

The e-tron seems to be doing OK though.

lucky john

Sabre Man wrote: »

Meanwhile in Gerrmany, Mercedes EQC flops with 55 units sold in Germany to date. Ouch!

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-killer-mercedes-benz-eqc-flops-germany/

By the time G4 is built in Germany, Tesla will have increased their advantage way beyond anything coming to the market in the next 2 years. Other Auto makers need to STOP looking at what TESLA is doing today and look at what they plan to to do over the next couple of years. By then Tesla will be building a car with a million mile battery, supper fast charging doing 700 miles/charge for less than €40,000. They will be building and selling over 1 million per year (M3 and MY) and making a 20% margin. All cars will have at least level 4 self driving and be the safest cars on the roads bar none.

OwlsZat

JMMCapital wrote: »

I’m not going to lie The Model S was amazing but around that time the rest of the world was slow and is now catching up look at Porsche’s new model for example, there will be many more to come...

Hardly doing your thesis much help comparing the M3 to a car costing 3x the price....

themossinator

JMMCapital wrote: »

I have listened to Many of the short sellers on a number of occasions and have to agree with them firstly the fact that most senior management are leaving and with huge severance packages is by no means a good thing. (I would be worried if I was a shareholder)

The stock price is clearly way too overvalued and is worth close to zero when you take a closer look into the financial statements, the 12 month income is under just 200 million dollars which is terrible it has taken 20 billion from investors to get here. The company is not worth anywhere close to market value of 80 billion.

I’m not going to lie The Model S was amazing but around that time the rest of the world was slow and is now catching up look at Porsche’s new model for example, there will be many more to come...

Listening to Chanos he highlights two key items from the recent shareholder conference call firstly, production has stalled for model S to 45,000 per quarter which should be slightly worrying for shareholders. Secondly, the margins in producing over in China will be relatively the same as in Fremont so what’s the point of setting up over there.

Look at solar city which was going to zero before taking it over for $20 a share (many of the Tesla short sellers had positions in solar city) if you read the lawsuits you will see the company was going to the walls anyway the bonds were hitting 20%. So the bears have already won round 1.

"the competition is coming"

Scottie99

I’ve been watching this lad for about 12months, he tends to be on money regarding Tesla.

https://youtu.be/KB-yc-lVExw

https://youtu.be/YDyq0HAmx2k Regarding competition

unkel

Scottie99 wrote: »

I’ve been watching this lad for about 12months, he tends to be on money regarding Tesla.

https://youtu.be/KB-yc-lVExw

I disagree with him that a million mile battery is a big break through. I reckon it is unimportant in the market right now. Who cares if it can do the current one third of a million miles (500k km) or a million miles (1500k km)? Of course it matters when (if) the Robotaxi comes along but that is some time away

I can't see the Tesla battery investor day do much for share price. There is no break through in battery technology. Even though Tesla will dress it up like one.

unkel

Scottie99 wrote: »

https://youtu.be/YDyq0HAmx2k Regarding competition

No disrespect, but that's the same old mantra we've been hearing so many times over many years. Tesla back in 2012 was so far ahead and only now are the other car makers trying to do what Tesla managed to do back then. It is a lot harder than they thought, they will suffer, they will go bankrupt and Tesla will sell millions of cars.

Even if this pans out 100%, every Tesla fanboi on the planet knows this argument. I've not much time for a youtuber coming out with this stuff in 2020 as if it were expert analysis.

lucky john

unkel wrote: »

I disagree with him that a million mile battery is a big break through.

One of the big arguments thrown out by EV sceptics is that whatever the environment gains by driving EV's it's lost by what goes into manufacturing a battery and then having to replace it and scrap it after a short life.

One Tesla MS owner has put up 1 million Km in his car but he changed the battery once at least at around 300,000 km. To show sustainability and true environment protection a long live battery is very important. It's all part of the Tesla mission. 1 million miles is a big step but 1 million km is a most and asap.

unkel

lucky john wrote: »

One of the big arguments thrown out by EV sceptics is that whatever the environment gains by driving EV's it's lost by what goes into manufacturing a battery and then having to replace it and scrap it after a short life.

One Tesla MS owner has put up 1 million Km in his car but he changed the battery once at least at around 300,000 km. To show sustainability and true environment protection a long live battery is very important. It's all part of the Tesla mission. 1 million miles is a big step but 1 million km is a most and asap.

That 1m km Tesla has in fact done 500k km on its last battery (and 680k km on its last motor). Everybody in the know, already knows that EVs last longer than ICE cars and that EV batteries will out last the life of the EV. Whether a battery does 500k km or 1500k km makes no difference and it won't convince a head-in-the-sand sceptic or a retard politician both of whom have no interest in facts...

lucky john

unkel wrote: »

I've not much time for a youtuber coming out with this stuff in 2020 as if it were expert analysis.

the utuber is Gali, the tesla investor that Musk let ask the question at an earnings call a couple of years ago. He's also the tesla expert brought on to plenty of US shows to debate with Chanos and friends. His analysis is good and very knowledgeable on all things Tesla. He has been proven right way more often than some of the highly paid guys in expensive suits that cover Tesla. Well worth watching.

unkel

lucky john wrote: »

Well worth watching.

He said nothing in above two newish vids that I haven't heard many times before over the last few years. Don't get me wrong though, I don't disagree with a lot of it. But don't expect me to get interested in this guy either

JMMCapital

Market Cap / Unit Sold in 2019

Hyundai: $3500
Nissan: $4500
GM: $6400
Ford: $6500
VW: $9k
Honda: $10k
Toyota: $20k

$TSLA: $218,000

Bigus

JMMCapital wrote: »

Market Cap / Unit Sold in 2019

Hyundai: $3500
Nissan: $4500
GM: $6400
Ford: $6500
VW: $9k
Honda: $10k
Toyota: $20k

$TSLA: $218,000

An interesting chart, however What’s the average selling price of a unit for those companies ? and few of them get their full list price unlike Tesla ?
Also Even pessimists believe Tesla volumes will expand exponentially however that’s some ground to make up, but it'd be fairer to compare Tesla to lower volume higher end producers like BMW, Mercedes , jaguar land rover even Ferrari etc.

unkel

JMMCapital wrote: »

Market Cap / Unit Sold

Interesting ratio, but not sure of the relevance. The value of a company (not necessarily the same as the market cap) is the net present value of all future profits. Nothing much to do with the current number of cars sold, margin per car, or bottom line profitability

That said, maybe it's a coincidence, but I put in a buy order on Hyundai shares earlier this morning

lucky john

JMMCapital wrote: »

Market Cap / Unit Sold in 2019

Hyundai: $3500
Nissan: $4500
GM: $6400
Ford: $6500
VW: $9k
Honda: $10k
Toyota: $20k

$TSLA: $218,000

That's a bit like comparing a traditional book seller like Borders' to Amazon around 2000. In 1994 Amazon was born. In 1998 Borders' had 256 stores, 36,000 employees and sales of $256 per sq ft. By 2011 it had 10,500 employees and was bust.

Don't forget Ford and GM are only there because the US government saved them. lets see what those figures look like at the end of 2020, 2021 ect

JMMCapital

lucky john wrote: »

That's a bit like comparing a traditional book seller like Borders' to Amazon around 2000. In 1994 Amazon was born. In 1998 Borders' had 256 stores, 36,000 employees and sales of $256 per sq ft. By 2011 it had 10,500 employees and was bust.

Don't forget Ford and GM are only there because the US government saved them. lets see what those figures look like at the end of 2020, 2021 ect

Just found it interesting..

lucky john

bought my Tesla shares in Nov 2015 @ $230 so just crossed the 100% line. When I told my broker at the time I wanted to buy Tesla he said "Who!" When I bought it was with a ten year or $1000/share horizon regardless of the up and downs. That remains the plan.

unkel

lucky john wrote: »

bought my Tesla shares in Nov 2015 @ $230

That's a lot of risk you took those first 4 years! I bought mine in May 2019 @ $230

Unfortunately I sold them after 6 months with 33% net profit. Not complaining though...

lucky john

only regret is that I didn't buy 10 times more shares at the time.