Is anyone else starting to become a bit excited?

Addison Fancy Macrame wrote: »

Funny enough I always fed FIAT to my stock portfolio and it nearly ways went down!

Bitcoin is safer than most stocks bar the top few by mkt cap in S&P it seems.

To be fair, an ETF which is dumbly buying everything on the S&P 500 would have gone up drastically over the past couple of years (courtesy of the Fed kindly providing piles of cash to primary dealers, which feels great for some while it lasts but will not end well).

Lex Luthor wrote: »

stock market is at an ath at the moment....bubble about to burst, not sustainable

It is unsustainable. But I don’t think anyone can predict when it will burst. Could be one month, one year, or 5 years. The Fed is clearly ready to do “whatever it takes” (even if it means potentially destroying the value of the dollar) to prevent markets from falling - this won’t go on forever but who know how much longer they can keep the music playing.

cnocbui wrote: »

If you had written that 2 years ago, it would have been true; 1 year ago, it would have been true; 6 months ago, it would have been true - but the thing is, so long as interest rates are zero or negative, it isn't true.

That's not entirely accurate!

There was a massive correction in the last quarter of 2018. So, "1 year ago" it was approx 20% lower than the previous summer.

dotsman wrote: »

There was a massive correction in the last quarter of 2018. So, "1 year ago" it was approx 20% lower than the previous summer.

Yes this happened when the Fed started to increase interest rates again to bring them to equilibrium value and to engage in quantitative tightening to normalise their balance sheet. And then once they saw the result they changed track (interest rates lowered again and now we even have unofficial QE via the repo market) and the markets started rising again.

Which demonstrates stock prices have little to do with the economy and very much to do with historically low interest rates and money printing.

Thing is - it is now pretty clear the Fed sees a market crash as unacceptable and will provide lower rates for as long as it takes and as much liquidity as it takes to prevent one for happening. I don’t think they can/will do it forever, but it is very hard to say how much longer it can last (could end soon, but could also be another decade).

]So while I agree a market crash should be imminent in a functioning system, since the game is basically rigged I would be cautious calling for one. Long term it is probably good for crypto and precious metals though, as it is damaging trust in fiat currencies (the ECB or the BOJ have similar policies).

cnocbui wrote: »

That wasn't massive, it was just a correction, not a crash. I am not aware of the scale of the correction in the Irish market, but in the US it was only 10%.

I have been thinking a major crash is surely imminent for years, and it hasn't happened. If things were normal I am sure there would have been a crash, but there is nowhere else for all the money to go. Bonds are dead, no yield there. Stick the money in a bank and watch it get eaten away.

Equities are the only game in town so the ridiculous valuations just keep pushing up due to scarcity and demand.

I would both love and hate an actual crash. I don't expect one while zero and negative interest rate insanity persists.

As "corrections" go, it was pretty massive. Nasdaq dropped 22%. The 2008 crash (one of the biggest market crashes in history), saw a drop of 37% on the Nasdaq.

Anyway, not debating the ins and outs of stock markets. Was just correcting your statement that 1 year ago, the stock market was at an all time high.

cnocbui wrote: »

dotsman wrote: »

Was just correcting your statement that 1 year ago, the stock market was at an all time high.

I didn't say that.

I'm afraid you did...

cnocbui wrote: »

Lex Luthor wrote: »

stock market is at an ath at the moment....bubble about to burst, not sustainable

If you had written that 2 years ago, it would have been true; 1 year ago, it would have been true; 6 months ago, it would have been true - but the thing is, so long as interest rates are zero or negative, it isn't true.

Don't mean to be pedantic

Here we go again

Bob24 wrote: »

Dash and Monero have been on fire in the past couple of days (even compared to the rest of the bunch). They had been poor performers in the past few months and I thought people were slowly writing them off due to regulatory fears and delistings from exchanges, but I might have been wrong.

Still on fire! Dash up 42% in the past 7 days (vs 10% for Bitcoin)

Basically the value doubled in the past 2 weeks.

Disclosure: I don’t have any :-)

Addison Fancy Macrame wrote: »

Could get rejected here but we are above the top line of the 7 month falling wedge. Bullish but apprehensive.

Still long and accumulating as always.

Why 7 months? Why not 6 or 8. Crypto heads love seeing patterns where they don’t exist. It’s why we have lads going on about 30,40, 60, 90 day moving averages. Anything to suit the narrative. Tether sent a load of magic dollars to Binance late last night. That’s being used to pump the price. The few desperate fûckers still using margin to go short and long will be cleaned out once again.

Simples.

Grumpypants wrote: »

You are consistant, contistanly wrong, but consistant none the less.

You spelled consistent wrong, consistently wrong.

barneystinson wrote: »

You spelled consistent wrong, consistently wrong.

I'll be sure to use some of my bitcoin profits on a dictionary.

Dohnjoe wrote: »

Did you buy any crypto yet?

I didn’t. I find cash to be a great ‘day to day’ currency and I tend to invest in property. Not something that is filled with conmen and destined to collapse.

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

I didn’t. I find cash to be a great ‘day to day’ currency and I tend to invest in property. Not something that is filled with conmen and destined to collapse.

Oh I agree, but the small amount I tossed in over the years has beaten any other investment I've ever made, by light years. The coins might not be real, but the cash gains are. Could be worth a flutter.