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Wind / Rainfall warnings :Potentially very windy Weds 18th Dec 2019

  • 17-12-2019 8:22pm
    #1
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,069 Mod ✭✭✭✭


    Think it is worth putting up a thread for this event on Weds as there is potential for the warnings to increase from the present Yellow. Models have been grappling with this set up for a few days and have all upgraded wind speeds in the last run.

    Since the Met Eireann warning has come out some models suggesting that some areas could be potentially very windy as in the Orange warning level, a few coastal areas are showing up by some models with even higher gusts. Couple this with the heavy rain forecast and it makes for difficult weather conditions.

    The strongest winds tomorrow evening are fast moving, gone through in a few hours up along the Atlantic Seaboard.


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Comments

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,069 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM 12Z

    Very fast moving deepening system on it's approach towards the SW hitching a ride from the Jet. From what I can make out the disturbance is 984 hPa at 03.00 and 968 hPa at 21.00, drop of 16 hPa in 18hrs, not quite a bomb but a decent fast drop. Unpredictable , the fact that the stronger winds are predicted later in the day gives forecasters a bit of time to see which way this goes.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,069 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM 12Z

    This last run sees the strongest winds graze the SW and showing some very strong winds in the W later that evening. ECM has upgraded the winds a lot in the last run bringing the system much closer to the coast.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,069 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    As typhoony pointed out , big upgrade from the GFS 12Z


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,069 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ICON in between runs but they look similar , earlier had shown very strong winds (in the Red level ) over Atlantic coastal counties but has pulled this back now to more over the sea and up along the coasts so this now more in line with the ECM.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,069 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ARPEGE might be a good average atm.

    EURO 4 looks a bit over done. What ye reckon ?

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,069 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Rainfall predictions


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Good work Meteorite.

    Looks a real tricky one. Could be a nasty surprise as media very quiet. System has potential to bring stronger wind gusts than during Atiyah.


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,647 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    Good work Meteorite.

    Looks a real tricky one. Could be a nasty surprise as media very quiet. System has potential to bring stronger wind gusts than during Atiyah.

    Seconded.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,178 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Id say these types of gusts

    Mace Hd 130kph
    Sherkin 125kph
    Valentia 122kph
    Roches Pt 110kph
    Belmullet 120kph
    Sligo 112kph
    Shannon 115kph


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,069 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    !CON 18Z looking extremly windy, has brought the strongest winds in overland again on this run.

    Orange warning levels at least from Kerry to Donegal if this verifies. Showing very high gusts inland as well.

    Will the other models follow suit.

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,951 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    A very tricky setup but most models developing that second wave of strong gusts in the West tomorrow night, including HARMONIE on DMI site now.

    The Met Éireann forecast after nine news made very little of it and their current text forecast seems a little bizarre, perhaps they are waiting to see what overnight runs bring.

    Current forecast for tomorrow night:
    Wednesday night will start wet in most places but the rain will quickly clear northwards, with just the odd coastal shower overnight. Southerly winds will drop off light to moderate with a few patches of mist and fog forming. Overnight lows of 5 to 7 degrees.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,178 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Latest GFS calmer than previous run by about 20kph so 110 or 120 on West coast tops in that setup


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,069 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    pauldry wrote: »
    Latest GFS calmer than previous run by about 20kph so 110 or 120 on West coast tops in that setup

    Just going to post the same, looks strong though onto the S coasts on this run .

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,069 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ARPEGE 12Z just rolling out, bringing stronger winds in over Atlantic counties on this run, still not as strong as the ECM or ICON but stronger than the last run and stronger across the country gusting widespread up to 90 km/h

    Currently up to 110km/h in coastal counties from Kerry up to W Donegal and possibly up to 120km/h on some coastal fringes.

    Still not certain but I personally would be leaning between ECM and ARPEGE. In saying that I thought in the last couple of wind events, or near non events for many, ICON did very well especially in the last couple of runs.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,069 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    EURO 4 I think tends to overdo it but even so looks extremely windy up along Atlantic coasts. Not showing the winds penetrate as far inland on this run but showing stronger winds in coastal areas.

    ????


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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,126 ✭✭✭Snow Garden


    Thanks Meteorite, looks like this one could catch people by surprise.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,207 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Knock Airport TAF giving gusts up to 46 knots between 7pm and 9pm, not very strong, however forecast winds are from the south/south east and that is strong from that direction. I think this thread will be busy come this time tomorrow


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,126 ✭✭✭Snow Garden


    National Warning

    Status Yellow - Wind warning for Ireland

    Southeast winds, later veering southerly will gust 90-110km/h on Wednesday, strongest in coastal areas.

    Valid: 12:00 Wednesday 18/12/2019 to 23:59 Wednesday 18/12/2019

    Issued: 10:00 Tuesday 17/12/2019


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,207 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Gerry murphy on Radio 1 just now "it may become stormy for a while on the west coast tomorrow night , however winds will ease quickly after midnight"


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,069 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Gerry murphy on Radio 1 just now "it may become stormy for a while on the west coast tomorrow night , however winds will ease quickly after midnight"


    ICON has toned down the wind speeds in the 21Z run.

    Looks like it is falling more in line now with ECM and ARPEGE.




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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,069 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM 18Z has the system closer again, bringing a bit stronger winds into Cork on this run but probably keeping in the yellow level for the S and SW, as the wind core moves up along the coast possibly going higher for the W. All moving along very quickly.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,069 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Probably starting to see close to what this is going to finish up looking like . Possibly see parts of the W with a brief Orange wind warning stating with possible higher gusts on coasts .

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    The Marine Forecast, for coastal waters, is at Orange, which is relevant in this episode.
    Eerily calm and silent now.

    West Mayo offshore.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    Lift off here.. wild wind and sheeting icy rain.. No need to batten down any hatches as they rarely get unbattened these days, :eek: but did a brief check, torch in hand. Bitter cold.

    Safe inside thankfully.. Listening to the gathering storm

    West mayo offshore island

    NB just checked the updated met.ie forecast and they are quoting 87 for wind speeds tonight..


  • Registered Users Posts: 589 ✭✭✭aisling86


    Who is Midland weather channel here?
    Are we really looking at 140/km+ in cork?


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,153 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    aisling86 wrote: »
    Who is Midland weather channel here?

    Not on here AFAIK.
    aisling86 wrote: »
    Are we really looking at 140/km+ in cork?

    Sensationalism!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 529 ✭✭✭Goldfinch8


    Awful morning. Heavy rain hammering down. Starts all over again. Central Mayo.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,205 ✭✭✭Kutebride


    Calm and dry Dublin.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,951 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    A shocking day ahead with torrential rain and winds ahead, the models still struggling with the tonight, ECMWF has eased back a little but HIRLAM and some others still showing severe gusts on Western Coasts tonight.

    The marine warning update gives some information:
    Status Orange - Gale Warning

    Southeast gales or strong gales today on all coasts of Ireland and on the Irish sea. South to southwest winds will reach storm force this evening and tonight on coasts from Mizen Head to Slyne Head to Malin Head


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,951 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    Gerry just said possible Orange level winds possible tonight in the West and warnings could be updated.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,565 ✭✭✭Pangea


    Listening to BBC radio 5 live weather there, he said risk of very strong winds tonight and that they are keeping an eye on it.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,069 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Yes the ECM has eased off the wind by quite a bit, other models have eased the strongest gusts more to coastal areas but are still showing stronger than the ECM in general.

    A cross between the ECM and ARPEGE perhaps.

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    ARPEGE probably a good average .

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  • Registered Users Posts: 766 ✭✭✭Foggy Jew


    I know you weather enthusiasts don’t like being asked specific questions, but here goes anyway. What are the chances of the Stenna ferry leaving Holyhead @ 2.30 am tomorrow morning being disrupted? Thanks

    It's the bally ballyness of it that makes it all seem so bally bally.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,186 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    aisling86 wrote: »
    Who is Midland weather channel here?
    Are we really looking at 140/km+ in cork?

    Weather safety alerts has similar red warning potential. One way of getting people to visit your Facebook page I suppose.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,250 ✭✭✭Mav11


    Wind picking up here Dun Laoghaire , SW gust of 48.5 knots in the past few minutes!

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 698 ✭✭✭Tazio


    Foggy Jew wrote: »
    I know you weather enthusiasts don’t like being asked specific questions, but here goes anyway. What are the chances of the Stenna ferry leaving Holyhead @ 2.30 am tomorrow morning being disrupted? Thanks


    Hard one to call. I'm not a weather expert by any stretch of the imagination; but I've been (obsessively) looking at ferry sailing versus weather charts for the last 2 weeks to allow me make a sailing - in my humble opinion it won't sail due to sea conditions... but do just keep an eye on this site : https://www.stenaline.ie/ferries-to-britain/latest-sailing-updates/dublin-port-holyhead/holyhead-dublin-port


    Met give updates here

    http://archive.met.ie/forecasts/coastal.asp



    I was sailing on the Stena Europe and it was cancelled numerous times this weekend past due to Rough / Very Rough conditions; you're looking to travel on the Stena Adventurer which is a larger ship so not too sure of its restrictions. Wave height may be ~3.5 meters or greater at the time of your sailing.


    http://archive.met.ie/forecasts/5day-ireland.asp

    again not an expert here; just posting a very amateur opinion! Best of luck and hope your travel plans work out.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,693 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    Lashing rain here in cork city, miserable.

    Airport TAF is expecting max gusts of 55kts from 6-10. They are from the southeast however which is an unusual direction so not sure how they will be.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 698 ✭✭✭Tazio


    Lashing rain here in cork city, miserable.

    Airport TAF is expecting max gusts of 55kts from 6-10. They are from the southeast however which is an unusual direction so not sure how they will be.




    It's quite gusty here at airport for sure... this was posted ~ 30 mins ago; it'll get worse later:

    METAR
    31m ago:
    Wind 150° 24kt, gusting 34kt. Visibility 8000m. Rain. Clouds broken 300ft. Temperature 9°C, dew point 9°C. QNH 990hPa. No significant change.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭Mortelaro


    Wet and wild in Arklow
    Gusting to almost 60kmh southeast at the moment
    Vile


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,178 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Southeast winds always seem more stormy than they are is there any reason for this.

    Gusty and wet in Sligo with a few rattles even though gusta are only 35 or 40 knots


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 40,061 ✭✭✭✭Harry Palmr


    Jasus this country - sub arctic sun one day and then chilly monsoon the next!

    Rain arrived here at just about 7.30 and it's now tipping down and gusty. I have to do some outdoor work this afternoon so I'm really hoping this at least eases off by say 3 pm


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,015 ✭✭✭John.Icy


    SE'rly element might make things a little more spicy in Eastern coastal areas (i.e. Dublin). We've really missed out on some of the windier episodes lately - don't think the airport has hit a yellow warning gust in several storms.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,069 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ICON 06Z now showing stronger winds in Kerry and Clare for this evening and not as strong in the W as earlier shown. Has a different shape to it today bringing strong winds inland from Kerry / Clare in a N/ E direction.

    Changing right at the last minute, ARPEGE rolling out, will see if it looks similar.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,548 ✭✭✭FishOnABike


    pauldry wrote: »
    Southeast winds always seem more stormy than they are is there any reason for this.

    Gusty and wet in Sligo with a few rattles even though gusta are only 35 or 40 knots


    Traditinally houses in exposed areas would have been built with their gable end to the prevailing wind. Similarly vegatation would be sculpted by the prevailing wind. A south east wind would be broadside to both and might seem stronger as a result.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,951 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    Warning updated with times extended but remains Yellow:
    Status Yellow - Wind warning for Ireland

    Update:
    Southeast winds, later veering southerly will gust 90-110km/h today. Winds will peak this evening and tonight. Stronger winds are possible in west and southwest coastal areas.

    Valid: 12:00 Wednesday 18/12/2019 to 03:00 Thursday 19/12/2019

    Issued: 10:00 Tuesday 17/12/2019

    Updated: 10:43 Wednesday 18/12/2019


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    Traditinally houses in exposed areas would have been built with their gable end to the prevailing wind. Similarly vegatation would be sculpted by the prevailing wind. A south east wind would be broadside to both and might seem stronger as a result.

    Interesting, Rural houses in Ireland tend to be front facing south, back to the north. The coldest house I ever rented bucked this trend. A modern build to face the road and impossible to heat ( up in the mountains) Its old ruined neighbour was in the north /south tradition,

    Out here on the north coast shore, they built the ruined cottage next to me, 150 years old, gable ends north and south. Square on to the Atlantic gales And my demountable dwelling the same way.

    The nearest house, a few hundred years away around the same era, , is the front to the south and back to the north tradition

    As for trees.... all gone. A few stalwart fuschias un perturbed by wind direction.

    One day I shall have a look at the other houses out here ;)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,684 ✭✭✭Darwin


    This storm seems to be hard to pin down, it does look like some fairly strong winds (100Km/h+) for a while tonight as the low sweeps north. Those strong winds are showing further east on 6z GFS vs the 6z Icon.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,207 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Cork 11am TAF giving gusts of up to 55 knots between 7pm - 10pm . Strong enough considering the direction.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,684 ✭✭✭Darwin


    Shannon airport TAF only 45 knots, seems to be missing the worst of the winds offshore and further inland east of Limerick.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,693 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    If this is what gusts from the south east at about 35/40kts is like, then 55 will sound bad! Lashing rain here with h that's sounding a lot stronger then they are.


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