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Wind / Rainfall warnings :Potentially very windy Weds 18th Dec 2019

  • 17-12-2019 8:22pm
    #1
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,803 Mod ✭✭✭✭


    Think it is worth putting up a thread for this event on Weds as there is potential for the warnings to increase from the present Yellow. Models have been grappling with this set up for a few days and have all upgraded wind speeds in the last run.

    Since the Met Eireann warning has come out some models suggesting that some areas could be potentially very windy as in the Orange warning level, a few coastal areas are showing up by some models with even higher gusts. Couple this with the heavy rain forecast and it makes for difficult weather conditions.

    The strongest winds tomorrow evening are fast moving, gone through in a few hours up along the Atlantic Seaboard.


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Comments

  • #2
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,803 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM 12Z

    Very fast moving deepening system on it's approach towards the SW hitching a ride from the Jet. From what I can make out the disturbance is 984 hPa at 03.00 and 968 hPa at 21.00, drop of 16 hPa in 18hrs, not quite a bomb but a decent fast drop. Unpredictable , the fact that the stronger winds are predicted later in the day gives forecasters a bit of time to see which way this goes.

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  • #3
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,803 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM 12Z

    This last run sees the strongest winds graze the SW and showing some very strong winds in the W later that evening. ECM has upgraded the winds a lot in the last run bringing the system much closer to the coast.

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  • #4
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,803 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    As typhoony pointed out , big upgrade from the GFS 12Z


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  • #5
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,803 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ICON in between runs but they look similar , earlier had shown very strong winds (in the Red level ) over Atlantic coastal counties but has pulled this back now to more over the sea and up along the coasts so this now more in line with the ECM.

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  • #6
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,803 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ARPEGE might be a good average atm.

    EURO 4 looks a bit over done. What ye reckon ?

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  • #7
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,803 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Rainfall predictions


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  • #8
    ninebeanrows
    Registered Users Posts: 12,778 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Good work Meteorite.

    Looks a real tricky one. Could be a nasty surprise as media very quiet. System has potential to bring stronger wind gusts than during Atiyah.


  • #9
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,054 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    Sleety_Rain wrote: »
    Good work Meteorite.

    Looks a real tricky one. Could be a nasty surprise as media very quiet. System has potential to bring stronger wind gusts than during Atiyah.

    Seconded.


  • #10
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,870 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Id say these types of gusts

    Mace Hd 130kph
    Sherkin 125kph
    Valentia 122kph
    Roches Pt 110kph
    Belmullet 120kph
    Sligo 112kph
    Shannon 115kph


  • #11
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,803 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    !CON 18Z looking extremly windy, has brought the strongest winds in overland again on this run.

    Orange warning levels at least from Kerry to Donegal if this verifies. Showing very high gusts inland as well.

    Will the other models follow suit.

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  • #12
    Villain
    Registered Users Posts: 15,944 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    A very tricky setup but most models developing that second wave of strong gusts in the West tomorrow night, including HARMONIE on DMI site now.

    The Met Éireann forecast after nine news made very little of it and their current text forecast seems a little bizarre, perhaps they are waiting to see what overnight runs bring.

    Current forecast for tomorrow night:
    Wednesday night will start wet in most places but the rain will quickly clear northwards, with just the odd coastal shower overnight. Southerly winds will drop off light to moderate with a few patches of mist and fog forming. Overnight lows of 5 to 7 degrees.


  • #13
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 6,870 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Latest GFS calmer than previous run by about 20kph so 110 or 120 on West coast tops in that setup


  • #14
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,803 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    pauldry wrote: »
    Latest GFS calmer than previous run by about 20kph so 110 or 120 on West coast tops in that setup

    Just going to post the same, looks strong though onto the S coasts on this run .

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  • #15
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,803 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ARPEGE 12Z just rolling out, bringing stronger winds in over Atlantic counties on this run, still not as strong as the ECM or ICON but stronger than the last run and stronger across the country gusting widespread up to 90 km/h

    Currently up to 110km/h in coastal counties from Kerry up to W Donegal and possibly up to 120km/h on some coastal fringes.

    Still not certain but I personally would be leaning between ECM and ARPEGE. In saying that I thought in the last couple of wind events, or near non events for many, ICON did very well especially in the last couple of runs.

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  • #16
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,803 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    EURO 4 I think tends to overdo it but even so looks extremely windy up along Atlantic coasts. Not showing the winds penetrate as far inland on this run but showing stronger winds in coastal areas.

    ????


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  • #17
    Snow Garden
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,126 ✭✭✭Snow Garden


    Thanks Meteorite, looks like this one could catch people by surprise.


  • #18
    Oscar Bravo
    Registered Users Posts: 10,054 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Knock Airport TAF giving gusts up to 46 knots between 7pm and 9pm, not very strong, however forecast winds are from the south/south east and that is strong from that direction. I think this thread will be busy come this time tomorrow


  • #19
    Snow Garden
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,126 ✭✭✭Snow Garden


    National Warning

    Status Yellow - Wind warning for Ireland

    Southeast winds, later veering southerly will gust 90-110km/h on Wednesday, strongest in coastal areas.

    Valid: 12:00 Wednesday 18/12/2019 to 23:59 Wednesday 18/12/2019

    Issued: 10:00 Tuesday 17/12/2019


  • #20
    Oscar Bravo
    Registered Users Posts: 10,054 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Gerry murphy on Radio 1 just now "it may become stormy for a while on the west coast tomorrow night , however winds will ease quickly after midnight"


  • #21
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,803 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Oscar Bravo wrote: »
    Gerry murphy on Radio 1 just now "it may become stormy for a while on the west coast tomorrow night , however winds will ease quickly after midnight"


    ICON has toned down the wind speeds in the 21Z run.

    Looks like it is falling more in line now with ECM and ARPEGE.




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  • #22
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,803 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM 18Z has the system closer again, bringing a bit stronger winds into Cork on this run but probably keeping in the yellow level for the S and SW, as the wind core moves up along the coast possibly going higher for the W. All moving along very quickly.

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  • #23
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,803 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Probably starting to see close to what this is going to finish up looking like . Possibly see parts of the W with a brief Orange wind warning stating with possible higher gusts on coasts .

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  • #24
    Graces7
    Registered Users Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    The Marine Forecast, for coastal waters, is at Orange, which is relevant in this episode.
    Eerily calm and silent now.

    West Mayo offshore.


  • #25
    Graces7
    Registered Users Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    Lift off here.. wild wind and sheeting icy rain.. No need to batten down any hatches as they rarely get unbattened these days, :eek: but did a brief check, torch in hand. Bitter cold.

    Safe inside thankfully.. Listening to the gathering storm

    West mayo offshore island

    NB just checked the updated met.ie forecast and they are quoting 87 for wind speeds tonight..


  • #26
    aisling86
    Registered Users Posts: 584 ✭✭✭aisling86


    Who is Midland weather channel here?
    Are we really looking at 140/km+ in cork?


  • #27
    DOCARCH
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,684 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    aisling86 wrote: »
    Who is Midland weather channel here?

    Not on here AFAIK.
    aisling86 wrote: »
    Are we really looking at 140/km+ in cork?

    Sensationalism!


  • #28
    Goldfinch8
    Registered Users Posts: 529 ✭✭✭Goldfinch8


    Awful morning. Heavy rain hammering down. Starts all over again. Central Mayo.


  • #29
    Kutebride
    Registered Users Posts: 1,091 ✭✭✭Kutebride


    Calm and dry Dublin.


  • #30
    Villain
    Registered Users Posts: 15,944 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    A shocking day ahead with torrential rain and winds ahead, the models still struggling with the tonight, ECMWF has eased back a little but HIRLAM and some others still showing severe gusts on Western Coasts tonight.

    The marine warning update gives some information:
    Status Orange - Gale Warning

    Southeast gales or strong gales today on all coasts of Ireland and on the Irish sea. South to southwest winds will reach storm force this evening and tonight on coasts from Mizen Head to Slyne Head to Malin Head


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  • #31
    Villain
    Registered Users Posts: 15,944 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    Gerry just said possible Orange level winds possible tonight in the West and warnings could be updated.


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