Unionists and a United Ireland.

The fact that the EU have said a reunification vote will see NI immediately return to the EU, and not have to face any sort of waiting period, is a huge boost for the pro-unity argument if Brexit goes badly.

Add in the potential for Scotland to vote for independence within the next 5 years and that would also make the case even more compelling. I can't see English people, who are increasingly asserting their identity, being willing to wrap themselves in the Union flag if the Scots tell them cheerio. And Sturgeon has made clear she wants an independent Scotland to be part of the EU as soon as possible.

Imagine then a situation in 10 years' time where the ROI and Scotland are part of the EU, enjoying the benefits of membership, while NI's economy is struggling as a distant satellite to an England and Wales that is looking increasingly inward and treating the place as a total afterthought (more even than now).

I think in that scenario plenty of unionists will say to themselves, maybe it's worth exploring whether there is a better alternative.

Unionists know that since the GFA Britain has tacitly withdrawn, it will not put up a fight for them in the event of a poll, they will remain neutral at best on the matter as a government.
They also know and fear (the belligerent ones anyhow) that a UI is happening by osmosis since the GFA too and that Brexit will hasten that process.
I think that explains the weird strategy that they adopted with Brexit, they hoped to shock the whole process and create borders and put insurmountable pressures on the GFA.
I don't think they bargained on Dublin outmanouvering them.

What they have done is cause the entire Unionist population to assess their future now in a very realistic way, as an afterthought at best in Westminster and fodder at worst to be sarcrificed in the interests of England. Scotland are facing up to the same reality.

Deleted User wrote: »

It has finally dawned on the DUP that Westminster wants rid of the North.

The reason the DUP hated the GFA so vociferously is because they knew that was what the GFA was - Westminster more or less saying they were happy out.

They never admitted it publicly, but now because they forced the British to drop them so publicly you have the likes of Bryson openly discussing and admitting it.

Jonathan Powell, former chief of staff to Tony Blair and a respected commentator on Brexit, has said he reckons Irish unity could be on the way in ten years:

"Once you put a border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom, Northern Ireland’s going to be part of a united Ireland for economic purposes," he told the BBC.

"That will increase the tendency toward a united Ireland for political reasons, too.

"I think there is a good chance there will be a united Ireland within 10 years."

https://www.irishnews.com/news/northernirelandnews/2019/12/17/news/brexit-could-lead-to-united-ireland-in-a-decade--1792498

There was a very interesting discussion on this afternoon's Talkback show on BBC NI radio discussing those comments, and whether Brexit has made reunification more likely. Begins from 9:00 on:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000cb0s

Emma Little-Pengelly, who lost her South Belfast seat, was on, as was the commentator Brian Feeney,and a few others. Interesting moment where reporter Hugh Jordan said he was told by a well-placed source that at a meeting in Dublin, a senior DUP politician said the Union was finished within 15 years.

Surprising number of unionist callers who said they were now willing to support reunification based on the manner in which the DUP handled Brexit.

Though it's a bit of a running joke from Star Trek there's a few bets reunification could happen in 2024 in an eeriely similar way to how the Simpsons predicted a Trump Presidency (though different means of course)

So a border poll will happen sooner or later and sooner or later will return a yes vote.

Will the Republic vote to take them?

I wouldn’t think so, a lot of people view “nordies” as a breed apart and once it would effect their pockets would quickly loose any misty eyed notions.

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

The most important aspect of any discussion on a united Ireland is who leads it - ironically, Stephen Donnelly may have helped today by calling on the Government to lay out its own unity plans, as taking the focus away from Sinn Féin makes it far more likely that the centre ground in NI will engage in the debate. Better still, perhaps a cross-Border forum like the Citizens Assembly, but involving business, religious, sporting, cultural groups etc, might be best placed to work through the various issues as they arise.

The all party committee with the input of some unionists too have done some work on it already.
I agree it has to be led by the government of the day.

As much as I would love to see a UI in the next decade or 15 years, I think that's a bit optimistic.

Some of the things which will delay it?

- people say older bigoted people are dying off. I see plenty of examples of bigoted youngsters. Just look at all the bonfires every July.

- it's assumed all Catholics in the north are in favour of a UI. I think it's safe to assume plenty would vote to remain part of UK in the case of a border poll.

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

This is an assumption often thrown out with little evidence to back it up. An RTE/TG4 poll from this summer showed 65% in favour, 19% against. When undecideds were excluded, it was 77% in favour.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/fresh-plea-for-border-poll-as-survey-shows-65-back-united-ireland-1.3905167

Many have friends and even family north of the border. We cheer on sportsmen and women from the north when they represent us. That stuff matters and resonates.

The lesson from the equal marriage and abortion referendums is that personal stories connect with people. I find it hard to believe that when the likes of former president Mary McAleese, sports stars from the world of rugby & GAA etc. and other notable personalities throw their weight behind unity that the majority in the south will pull up the drawbridge and say 'nah, we prefer to be divided'. That's not the country I know.

There isn't a political party willing to represent partitionists either and there won't be, because those who turn a blind eye are a tiny minority.
They will have to get behind loudmouths of journalism like Eoghan Harris and Ruth Dudley Edwards. Oh and John Bruton probably.

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

This is an assumption often thrown out with little evidence to back it up. An RTE/TG4 poll from this summer showed 65% in favour, 19% against. When undecideds were excluded, it was 77% in favour.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/fresh-plea-for-border-poll-as-survey-shows-65-back-united-ireland-1.3905167

Many have friends and even family north of the border. We cheer on sportsmen and women from the north when they represent us. That stuff matters and resonates.

The lesson from the equal marriage and abortion referendums is that personal stories connect with people. I find it hard to believe that when the likes of former president Mary McAleese, sports stars from the world of rugby & GAA etc. and other notable personalities throw their weight behind unity that the majority in the south will pull up the drawbridge and say 'nah, we prefer to be divided'. That's not the country I know.

Points taken, I work with a load of lads from Northern Ireland and get on great with them so a non issue for me however the question is not clear cut.

markodaly wrote: »

A UI will look very different from how people imagine it.

You got the DeLorean working then mark!


Why would your 'imagining'(which is what it is, unless you really do have time travelling abilities) be any more reliable than anybody else's?

BENDYBINN wrote: »

Old unionists and old republicans are dying out fast.
Young people can see the bigger picture and will not be tied in to outdated bigoted religious beliefs........expect big changes

"Funny, how you get more right wing as you get older."

Even back in the days of the worst of the Troubles, back when the Stiff Little Fingers were writing songs about what was going on around them, there were young folk up there who professed to be anti-sectarian, or just a-sectarian. In fact, the SLF themselves were a cross-community band. They represented, in a way, what we hoped the future of Northern Ireland would look like.

But even though we've seen 400 years of roughly the same cycle in that troubled province, the belief that the old guard will die off, leaving the new guard to have a fresh, more positive perspective, has clung on. This has never really manifested itself, though, and it makes it hard to discern if the current (relative) peace the North has enjoyed for the last 20 or so years is merely an ebb rather than a confident march towards a new NI society.

And it's one of the odd things about war, which is that as the memories of horror abates, what's left is the legends and the stories, and young people seem attracted to this - it seems to be a progression almost as old as man himself. And the young people then think they'd like to get involved in this war business and make a name for themselves, to take up a cause of their people, to get a bit of glory. And that's a danger I think remains in Northern Ireland where you have these young lads identifying strongly with one side or the other and wishing to take up for their side, not knowing that it's not just a game.

So, let's not be complacent in saying the younger generation will be better. It's been said before, I think. There is work yet to be done, and let's see it continue to be done, and be ever vigilant.

BarryD2 wrote: »

See what I mean.......................... a UI is a long, long, long way off with people of your view. And there's plenty out there.

Yeah, the problem would be the potential for latent bigotry against the British Unionists, and a new Ireland could be rife with it. Largely unspoken, but self-justified in the belief that it's payback time.

Unionists sitting in the dail may provide a good alternative right wing party to the left wing monopoly we currently have going on.

They will have guaranteed representation the same as any other party.. win a seat in the election.