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General Election December, 2019 (U.K.)

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12357…204

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    #122
    Dyr
    Registered Users Posts: 23,246 ✭✭✭✭Dyr


    I see Labour *edit* are deciding on whether to add an open borders policy to their election manifesto that's on a scale unheard of


    That's them done for anyway. Johnson Brexit it is.


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    #123
    quokula
    Registered Users Posts: 3,570 ✭✭✭quokula


    Rjd2 wrote: »
    Anyone creditable or remotely neutral suggesting he will switch? He would have switched months ago if he was going to.

    He was re-selected by tory members a few months in his area to run so chatter about him switching was never serious or in good faith.

    Small point but it's not really "his area" - I lived there when he was parachuted in back in 2015 because it was a safe Tory seat. He then lost more than half of his majority at the last election so it's no longer quite so safe.

    Anecdotal but most of my neighbours there were English pensioners, true blue Tory types, but they dislike Boris because of Heathrow and there's a mixture of feelings on Brexit (it's easy to forget there are still a lot of remainers among the core Tory vote).

    I fully expected him to switch constituency back when the election was first announced, but hard to imagine it happening now as it would be too big a story. Plus I'd imagine most people in the area who've been turned off Boris already switched in 2017 so he probably has a relatively stable core voter base there now.


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    #124
    Bannasidhe
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 19,219 Mod ✭✭✭✭Bannasidhe


    The BBC are leading with how NHS A&E waiting times are 'worst ever', and the highest ever number of people waiting for routine operations.
    This is 'good' news for Labour.

    Had to laugh seeing Hancock (Health Sec) saying this shows why Corbyn needs to be stopped. Party in charge of health cluster**** says it will be worse if the lot who haven't been in charge get in.


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    #125
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users Posts: 14,359 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    Farage to announce a Tory pact any moment now.


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    #126
    lawred2
    Registered Users Posts: 24,281 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    Bannasidhe wrote: »
    The BBC are leading with how NHS A&E waiting times are 'worst ever', and the highest ever number of people waiting for routine operations.
    This is 'good' news for Labour.

    Had to laugh seeing Hancock (Health Sec) saying this shows why Corbyn needs to be stopped. Party in charge of health cluster**** says it will be worse if the lot who haven't been in charge get in.

    we've made complete sh!t of the economy and we are intent on making things infinitely worse

    but Labour over there - who haven't been in government for a decade - they are going to be worse than us on the economy *

    just believe us...


    * one has to ask - whose economy do they speak of? It's not the average British person


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    #127
    Joe_ Public
    Registered Users Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    Johnson has to be in trouble in uxbridge. I did see it pointed out that the conservatives had even listed it as a vulnerable seat. Maybe they're confident they'll still win it but:

    Heathrow runway issue - extinction rebellion plans to whip up opposition against him on his ambiguous policy.

    HS2 - goes through constituency and big opposition to it.

    Student vote - brunel university population of 15k, a potential game changer if labour manages to mobilise it. Even 5k could be decisive.

    Bit of a complicating factor that the labour candidate has an issue with past Antisemitic remarks. Hardly ideal though not exactly as if johnson is in a position to take the high moral ground on that.

    Will be interesting to see how much of Johnson we see on the local campaign trail. Have a feeling he will be very busy elsewhere!


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    #128
    BonnieSituation
    Registered Users Posts: 18,921 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    liamtech wrote: »
    I hope you are all correct - just to make that clear i genuinely do - I just worry that the opposition will remain in opposition, despite more than 50% of the electorate voting for them - and the torys will have a majority

    Time will tell. Btw i will be staying up for results night - all argument and disagreement aside, anyone else planning on it???

    Perhaps we could set up a separate thread and discuss the results as they come in:)

    Northern Ireland results will be fascinating for me in particular

    The North and Scotland are always my main interests.

    And like every election of any hue I will have it on overnight.


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    #129
    Bannasidhe
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 19,219 Mod ✭✭✭✭Bannasidhe


    Joe_ Public wrote: »
    Johnson has to be in trouble in uxbridge. I did see it pointed out that the conservatives had even listed it as a vulnerable seat. Maybe they're confident they'll still win it but:

    Heathrow runway issue - extinction rebellion plans to whip up opposition against him on his ambiguous policy.

    HS2 - goes through constituency and big opposition to it.

    Student vote - brunel university population of 15k, a potential game changer if labour manages to mobilise it. Even 5k could be decisive.

    Bit of a complicating factor that the labour candidate has an issue with past Antisemitic remarks. Hardly ideal though not exactly as if johnson is in a position to take the high moral ground on that.

    Will be interesting to see how much of Johnson we see on the local campaign trail. Have a feeling he will be very busy elsewhere!

    As a matter of interest I had a look to see if a PM had ever lost their seat in the UK.
    Yes is the answer, but only once.
    1906, Arthur Balfour in Manchester East when the Tories took a drubbing. The CP lost 246 seats.
    Even then, technically Balfour was not a 'sitting' PM, having stood down the month before.
    The incoming govt was the last majority Whig gov, and that election also saw Labour become a genuine contender - it's seats increased from 2 to 29.


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    #130
    Joe_ Public
    Registered Users Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    "Only the liberal democrats stand a realistic chance of taking seats from the conservatives which is necessary to deprive boris johnson of any majority and to guarantee a new parliament in which the arithmetic will deliver a peoples vote."

    Just heard chuka umunna say this at a LD launch. I suppose its positive he's dropping the revoke thing, but what he's saying cannot be right. They cannot believe that. It doesnt make sense.


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    #131
    LuckyLloyd
    Registered Users Posts: 36,132 ✭✭✭✭LuckyLloyd


    He’s not in trouble in Uxbridge lads. They’ll have done their internal polling and would have switched him if there was an issue.


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    #132
    Joe_ Public
    Registered Users Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    Bannasidhe wrote: »
    As a matter of interest I had a look to see if a PM had ever lost their seat in the UK.
    Yes is the answer, but only once.
    1906, Arthur Balfour in Manchester East when the Tories took a drubbing. The CP lost 246 seats.
    Even then, technically Balfour was not a 'sitting' PM, having stood down the month before.
    The incoming govt was the last majority Whig gov, and that election also saw Labour become a genuine contender - it's seats increased from 2 to 29.

    Yeah that's right. It will still literally be the first time its ever happened so history very heavily against it.


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    #133
    LuckyLloyd
    Registered Users Posts: 36,132 ✭✭✭✭LuckyLloyd


    Joe_ Public wrote: »
    "Only the liberal democrats stand a realistic chance of taking seats from the conservatives which is necessary to deprive boris johnson of any majority and to guarantee a new parliament in which the arithmetic will deliver a peoples vote."

    Just heard chuka umunna say this at a LD launch. I suppose its positive he's dropping the revoke thing, but what he's saying cannot be right. They cannot believe that. It doesnt make sense.

    If you want a referendum on deal vs remain, vote Labour. They have a chance to lead a government which will deliver that, the Lib Dem’s don’t.


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    #134
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users Posts: 14,359 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    Professor Moriarty wrote: »
    Farage to announce a Tory pact any moment now.

    And.....I'm wrong.


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    #135
    Joe_ Public
    Registered Users Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    LuckyLloyd wrote: »
    If you want a referendum on deal vs remain, vote Labour. They have a chance to lead a government which will deliver that, the Lib Dem’s don’t.

    Well, not exactly. If second referendum is your top priority then you vote for the party best placed to deliver it.

    Issue for lib dems is their extreme hostility towards corbyn and determination to keep him from power is not compatible with its principle aim of stopping brexit.


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    #136
    BonnieSituation
    Registered Users Posts: 18,921 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    LuckyLloyd wrote: »
    He’s not in trouble in Uxbridge lads. They’ll have done their internal polling and would have switched him if there was an issue.

    They couldn't really move him either. If they moved him it would have seen a massive collapse in the vote nationwide.

    He'll still win. But I can see the majority being cut.


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    #137
    liamtech
    Registered Users Posts: 2,290 ✭✭✭liamtech


    Professor Moriarty wrote: »
    And.....I'm wrong.

    Technically you are wrong - but i noticed he made no mention of the unite to remain crowd in that press conference - he just kept saying that TBP will run against Labour seats

    Which could mean the Brexit Party WONT run where there is a sitting Lib Dem, Green, or Plaid candidate - and where the Unite to Remain Pact is in force

    In other words a constituency that would look like this

    Tory
    The Brexit Party
    Labour
    Green
    Lib Dem - Incumbant
    Plaid


    So in this hypothetical constituency, the Remain vote is CLEARLY split, thanks to Labour not joining Unite for Remain - while the leave vote would be very much unified

    Thats what i think he is heading for - not confirmed - speculation based on his choice of words but the BEEB presenter highlighted that 3 times he said TBP, not running against tory seats, but will ABSOLUTELY run against Labour - (didnt mention remain pact seats LD/GREEN/PLAID et al - one could assume he will not run against Dominic Grieve too)

    EDIT - trying to find more info on this but cant - could be a nonsense

    EDIT - OK Looks like a NONSENSE! seems he clarified himself that he will not be sanding down any more seats

    Farage can be very clear sometimes, but at other times he is very ambiguous

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/general-election-2019-live-nigel-farage-urged-to-pull-more-brexit-party-candidates-as-deadline-day-a4286751.html

    Apologies for that, it was the Beeb that seemed to suggest a change in BP policy - we will know for sure at 4 o clock

    Sic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants



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    #138
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users Posts: 14,359 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    Hilarious to hear a right wing populist like Farage complaining about the "abuse" his candidates are receiving. Pot, kettle, black.


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    #139
    quokula
    Registered Users Posts: 3,570 ✭✭✭quokula


    LuckyLloyd wrote: »
    He’s not in trouble in Uxbridge lads. They’ll have done their internal polling and would have switched him if there was an issue.

    This is likely true. While his margin isn't that large, this is after losing a large majority in 2017 in what was previously a very safe seat.

    It's likely that the majority of people who would switch to Labour there already have done.


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    #140
    quokula
    Registered Users Posts: 3,570 ✭✭✭quokula


    liamtech wrote: »
    Technically you are wrong - but i noticed he made no mention of the unite to remain crowd in that press conference - he just kept saying that TBP will run against Labour seats

    Which could mean the Brexit Party WONT run where there is a sitting Lib Dem, Green, or Plaid candidate - and where the Unite to Remain Pact is in force

    In other words a constituency that would look like this

    Tory
    The Brexit Party
    Labour
    Green
    Lib Dem
    Plaid


    So in this hypothetical constituency, the Remain vote is CLEARLY split, thanks to Labour not joining Unite for Remain - while the leave vote would be very much unified

    Thats what i think he is heading for - not confirmed - speculation based on his choice of words but the BEEB presenter highlighted that 3 times he said TBP, not running against tory seats, but will ABSOLUTELY run against Labour - (didnt mention remain pact seats LD/GREEN/PLAID et al - one could assume he will not run against Dominic Grieve too)

    He said they wouldn't run in seats the Tories won in 2017. Not seats held by Tories now. Considering a bunch of the Lib Dems actually were Tories in 2017 that means he won't be running against them (though I don't know if they're being moved to different constituencies next time) - the actual number of Lib Dems who won seats in 2017 was so small that it probably wasn't worth discussing, so I doubt he's trying to implicitly say anything by only focussing on Labour. He's focussing on Labour because they're the only party that can stop Brexit.


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    #141
    liamtech
    Registered Users Posts: 2,290 ✭✭✭liamtech


    quokula wrote: »
    He said they wouldn't run in seats the Tories won in 2017. Not seats held by Tories now. Considering a bunch of the Lib Dems actually were Tories in 2017 that means he won't be running against them (though I don't know if they're being moved to different constituencies next time) - the actual number of Lib Dems who won seats in 2017 was so small that it probably wasn't worth discussing, so I doubt he's trying to implicitly say anything by only focussing on Labour. He's focussing on Labour because they're the only party that can stop Brexit.

    Well in that hypothetical seat its an incumbent of one of the LD, Green, et al Unite to Remain - or a seat where the pact is being enforced - so that would give the Tories an advantage

    EDIT - OK Looks like a NONSENSE! seems he clarified himself that he will not be sanding down any more seats

    Farage can be very clear sometimes, but at other times he is very ambiguous

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/poli...-a4286751.html

    Apologies for that, it was the Beeb that seemed to suggest a change in BP policy - we will know for sure at 4 o clock

    Sic semper tyrannis - thus always to Tyrants



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    #142
    Joe_ Public
    Registered Users Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    Matt Hancock and conservative response to dreadful nhs statistics:

    "These figures show just how important it is that we stop jeremy corbyn."

    You just really have to laugh. When will uk voters wake up and realise they're being trolled. Just shows how a brexit election is so not good for opposition.


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    #143
    lawred2
    Registered Users Posts: 24,281 ✭✭✭✭lawred2


    Joe_ Public wrote: »
    Matt Hancock and conservative response to dreadful nhs statistics:

    "These figures show just how important it is that we stop jeremy corbyn."

    You just really have to laugh. When will uk voters wake up and realise they're being trolled. Just shows how a brexit election is so not good for opposition.

    I presume he was met with a follow up question as to how it showed such a thing?


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    #144
    Joe_ Public
    Registered Users Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    lawred2 wrote: »
    I presume he was met with a follow up question as to how it showed such a thing?

    No, just a raised eyebrow from andrew neil on politics live. Hancock isnt actually in the studio, qoute was just flashed up on screen.

    Edit: should point out that neil corrected that it was a conservative hq response not hancock personally. But still.

    Also said that on a show where the two main topics were nhs and flooding, the tories somehow couldnt find a single candidate with time enough to appear.


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    #145
    Rjd2
    Registered Users Posts: 12,009 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    BonnieSituation wrote: »
    They couldn't really move him either. If they moved him it would have seen a massive collapse in the vote nationwide.

    He'll still win. But I can see the majority being cut.

    They would also be throwing away a winnable seat unless they somehow had a more appealing Tory in the wings. When you look at London and Scotland they can't be doing that.

    He should win it, but Labour have made a serious effort to unseat him their so it could be close at least. He and Swinson the last time I checked were similar odds to hold their seats...2/7 or so. Pretty wild that.:o


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    #146
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users Posts: 14,359 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    Rjd2 wrote: »
    They would also be throwing away a winnable seat unless they somehow had a more appealing Tory in the wings. When you look at London and Scotland they can't be doing that.

    He should win it, but Labour have made a serious effort to unseat him their so it could be close at least. He and Swinson the last time I checked were similar odds to hold their seats...2/7 or so. Pretty wild that.:o

    He's 1/10 to retain his seat. Bookies think he'll definitely be re-elected.


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    #147
    Joe_ Public
    Registered Users Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    Professor Moriarty wrote: »
    He's 1/10 to retain his seat. Bookies think he'll definitely be re-elected.

    Thats just a bookies odds pricers view, though, not a reflection of what any money might suggest, i would argue. Its only small money but on the exchanges i notice johnson has traded low as 1/5 but as high as 2/5. Thats bets actually laid. Yes, he's clear favourite but as a sitting pm, thats not very clearcut. Bit like clinton in 2016, i can see it start to switch against him over course of campaign. Probably not enough but could be close.


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    #148
    robinph
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 24,066 Mod ✭✭✭✭robinph


    Joe_ Public wrote: »
    Thats just a bookies odds pricers view, though, not a reflection of what any money might suggest, i would argue. Its only small money but on the exchanges i notice johnson has traded low as 1/5 but as high as 2/5. Thats bets actually laid. Yes, he's clear favourite but as a sitting pm, thats not very clearcut. Bit like clinton in 2016, i can see it start to switch against him over course of campaign. Probably not enough but could be close.

    He'll probably be saved by standing against dolphins, raving loony party and Lord Buckethead which will take a few votes that might otherwise go to an actual candidate with a chance.


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    #149
    Rjd2
    Registered Users Posts: 12,009 ✭✭✭✭Rjd2


    robinph wrote: »
    He'll probably be saved by standing against dolphins, raving loony party and Lord Buckethead which will take a few votes that might otherwise go to an actual candidate with a chance.

    Are the Monster Raving Loony party not more right wing though? :)


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    #150
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users Posts: 14,359 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    Joe_ Public wrote: »
    Thats just a bookies odds pricers view, though, not a reflection of what any money might suggest, i would argue. Its only small money but on the exchanges i notice johnson has traded low as 1/5 but as high as 2/5. Thats bets actually laid. Yes, he's clear favourite but as a sitting pm, thats not very clearcut. Bit like clinton in 2016, i can see it start to switch against him over course of campaign. Probably not enough but could be close.

    Well 1/10 is a pretty decisive indicator, much and all as I'd like to see him lose. Anyway, Corbyn's unpopularity will save him. Any Tories who might be considering not voting for him will hold their nose and vote Johnson lest Corbyn becomes PM.


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    #151
    BonnieSituation
    Registered Users Posts: 18,921 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    This is not a parody:

    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson_MP/status/1194377557405261824?s=09

    ---

    How can anyone take this guy seriously?

    "Yeah, but Corbyn..."


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