Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Enzokk · 24-10-2019 01:41PM

Tea Shock wrote: »

RTE are saying the EU are deciding tomorrow.

Also that some in Number 10, specifically Dominic Cummings, wants to abandon the WAB altogether and go for an election now. Perhaps via the Tory party bringing a motion of no confidence in their own government. The irony!

The optics of the Tories calling a no-confidence vote in themselves would be tough to live down. In any interview between any other candidate and a Tory candidate the immediate question would be, if you and your party doesn't have confidence in Johnson to lead the country, why should voters?

Inquitus · 24-10-2019 01:44PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

They can do that, but that would give the opposition the opportunity to form a GNU. Or they could move a bill for an election, but that would allow the opposition the opportunity to tack something on to that bill like expanding the vote to 16 or 17 year olds.

Oh what a tangled web we weave...

A GNU with Bercow at the helm has been mooted, if the opposition can get their **** together!

Joe_ Public · 24-10-2019 01:54PM

Inquitus wrote: »

A GNU with Bercow at the helm has been mooted, if the opposition can get their **** together!

You never know but cant see it. When you see the squabbling going on between opposition over last nights nhs amendment, it does rather make talk of any sort of gnu look a bit fanciful. Think Cummings made that calculation some time back.

Leroy42 · 24-10-2019 01:58PM

Enzokk wrote: »

The optics of the Tories calling a no-confidence vote in themselves would be tough to live down. In any interview between any other candidate and a Tory candidate the immediate question would be, if you and your party doesn't have confidence in Johnson to lead the country, why should voters?

Oh that's easy to get around, same way they ditched TM but carried on with the same policies. The line will be that parliament was stopping Johnson from leading and delivering Brexit, with an extra but about them all being paid EU shills and anti democratic, and that they wanted to give the country the same opportunity as the Tory party to give Johnson full support.

And then simply pivot to attacking Corbyn

SeaBreezes · 24-10-2019 02:00PM

Tea Shock wrote: »

RTE are saying the EU are deciding tomorrow.

Also that some in Number 10, specifically Dominic Cummings, wants to abandon the WAB altogether and go for an election now. Perhaps via the Tory party bringing a motion of no confidence in their own government. The irony!

I wonder if that's because the ONLY reason for Brexit is to avoid the tax laws coming in Jan2020 and that's the real deadline? A referendum with agreement would take them past that deadline and force financial transparency? And you may be sure the EU would be looking at the Cayman Isles first for transparency..

prawnsambo · 24-10-2019 02:07PM

Field east wrote: »

But apparently, BJ thought of a further idea to try and show the ‘two fingers’ or something along those lines ie. THE UNSIGNED LETTER SENT WAS A PHOTOCOPY. There is no end to the guy. So that’s how he plans to treat his ‘European friends’ who he keeps referring to. God help him when it comes to negotiating trade deals with anybody but especially Europe

This was probably said by the usual 'source' in Downing street. But it's not true. I think perhaps Jolyon Maugham tweeted (or retweeted) images of both the Benn Act letter and the actual one. Fonts and type-spacing were different. So no, it wasn't a photocopy.

Leroy42 · 24-10-2019 02:11PM

The other major concern is just how duplicitous they are being in terms of the actual requirements for the NI/GB border. The cabinet are giving out completely different versions, with Johnson stating in the HoC yesterday that there would be no controls.

Others are saying there will be, but in any event they will be minimal, very little actually checked.

Whilst I don't personally care for however they lie to their own MP's, the big danger, in fact I would say it is a given, is that the UK will continue to reduce any controls they do put in so that in effect Ireland is forced to implement its own controls to avoid the rest of the EU placing controls on anything coming form Ireland.

Zubeneschamali · 24-10-2019 02:13PM

Field east wrote: »

THE UNSIGNED LETTER SENT WAS A PHOTOCOPY.

It turns out that that was baloney. Cummings A #10 source told journalists that they had sent a photocopy of the letter from the Benn Act as part of Johnson's defiance, along with a letter contradicting it.

But neither of those was true - the accompanying letter had been carefully drafted so as not to contradict the request, and the Benn letter was not a photocopy. Faisal Islam tweeted them out side by side - the letter was more neatly typed and formatted than the one in the legal text of the Act:

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1185895759633420288

Joe_ Public · 24-10-2019 02:18PM

Simple trick but clever enough. Get everybody talking about the apparently photocopied letter while the reality of johnsons humiliation in requesting an extension is relatively overlooked. Got to say it did its job reasonably effectively.

Danzy · 24-10-2019 02:18PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Allow it? What exactly is he going to do about it if the EU say No to his extension request?

The only way to avoid it at this stage is to revoke A50.

Which shows how dangerous the whole "Keep No Deal on the table as a bluff" policy has been.

Why would the EU deny the extension, they want this deal passed as much as he does.

Zubeneschamali · 24-10-2019 02:22PM

Danzy wrote: »

Why would the EU deny the extension, they want this deal passed as much as he does.

My point is that if Johnson does not want No Deal under any circumstances, handing control of No Deal over to the EU, the people he has been poking with a stick since he took office, is risky.

I think that in fact he would be quite happy if they denied the request and forced a no deal since he would be the hero who delivered Brexit and the EU would be the baddies who forced No Deal.

Danzy · 24-10-2019 02:33PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

My point is that if Johnson does not want No Deal under any circumstances, handing control of No Deal over to the EU, the people he has been poking with a stick since he took office, is risky.

I think that in fact he would be quite happy if they denied the request and forced a no deal since he would be the hero who delivered Brexit and the EU would be the baddies who forced No Deal.

Johnson is as keen to avoid a No Deal, they EU are as well.

No Deal is even less likely than a revocation of article 50.

If no deal receiveda dozen votes in the Commons, it would be a shock to all.

Varadkar during the week commenting that an election win for Johnson and pass the deal would be welcome.

They can't interfere much but Juncker and Tusk etc will have a mass said for Johnson on election night.

woohoo!!! · 24-10-2019 02:36PM

Very noticeable and disturbing that the opposition are all playing the union card, sucking up to the DUP, and isn't it terrible that there'll be barriers that upsets unionists. Perhaps they should have a unionist veto after all.

Yet again, nationalists and non aligned being ignored. Swinson is a Tory lite, who may well lose her seat and is mostly interested in capturing Labour votes and get ex tories to join. Corbyn is just too indecisive, doesn't inspire confidence and as for Johnson...

British Brexit unicorns are strong in all of them. I'm with Macron, a short extension to sign or not, but either way, make a damm decision and quit the cunning tactics that just delay and delay

Tea Shock · 24-10-2019 02:49PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

The other major concern is just how duplicitous they are being in terms of the actual requirements for the NI/GB border. The cabinet are giving out completely different versions, with Johnson stating in the HoC yesterday that there would be no controls.

Others are saying there will be, but in any event they will be minimal, very little actually checked.

Whilst I don't personally care for however they lie to their own MP's, the big danger, in fact I would say it is a given, is that the UK will continue to reduce any controls they do put in so that in effect Ireland is forced to implement its own controls to avoid the rest of the EU placing controls on anything coming form Ireland.

Well I have only heard them talking about checks that are going from NI to GB which we don't have to care about

If they start acting the shyte with checks coming from GB to NI though, then there'll have to be something in the future relationship that we can use to punish them with. If they leave with no deal at the end of 2020, there wouldn't be any comeback available to the EU.

I keep saying it on this thread, these are cowboys and everything they do should be viewed upon with the greatest of suspicion

Water John · 24-10-2019 03:00PM

Macron may be correct. Only give them a sort period to get the Deal through Parliament, not enough time to mess around and call a GE.
After all, the EU doesn't want to get involved in a country's domestic affairs.

Kermit.de.frog · 24-10-2019 03:03PM

woohoo!!! wrote: »

Very noticeable and disturbing that the opposition are all playing the union card, sucking up to the DUP, and isn't it terrible that there'll be barriers that upsets unionists. Perhaps they should have a unionist veto after all.

The remainers are totally disingenuous.

Up until a week or two a go they were all saying you can't have a land border - the peace process etc etc...

...because it suited their agenda.

Now they are against an Irish sea "border".

...because it suits their agenda.

I'm pretty angry at how this island is being kicked around like a football to suit agendas.

They should just leave already. The whole lot of them can do more harm than they have already done.

The whole of Britain should be ashamed of it's self over it's behaviour these last few years from all sides.

Joe_ Public · 24-10-2019 03:06PM

Water John wrote: »

Macron may be correct. Only give them a sort period to get the Deal through Parliament, not enough time to mess around and call a GE.
After all, the EU doesn't want to get involved in a country's domestic affairs.

You could argue thats precisely what they'd be doing with the short extension though. At the very least, applying serious pressure. As stated by a previous poster, most pragmatic and least risky option is just to accept january request. And the EU is nothing if not pragmatic to its core.

Water John · 24-10-2019 03:15PM

January deadline allows Johnson the option of a GE. A few weeks to get the Bill through Parliament doesn't.

Seth Brundle · 24-10-2019 03:18PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The remainers are totally disingenuous.

Up until a week or two a go they were all saying you can't have a land border - the peace process etc etc...

...because it suited their agenda.

Now they are against an Irish sea "border".

...because it suits their agenda.

I'm pretty angry at how this island is being kicked around like a football to suit agendas.

They should just leave already. The whole lot of them can do more harm than they have already done.

The whole of Britain should be ashamed of it's self over it's behaviour these last few years from all sides.

Despite your own agenda, the remainers are pointing out the obvious that no matter what way an agreement (never mind a no-deal) is completed, the UK will in absolutely no measurable way be better off!
It is a bit of a no-brainer really!

Kermit.de.frog · 24-10-2019 03:20PM

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Despite your own agenda, the remainers are pointing out the obvious that no matter what way an agreement (never mind a no-deal) is completed, the UK will in absolutely no measurable way be better off!
It is a bit of a no-brainer really!

They are not - they are using faux concern for the people on this island to suit their agendas.

The sooner they are out the better for everyone.

We have a deal.

Time to move on. Leave the psychodrama to them.

Jim2007 · 24-10-2019 03:29PM

Tea Shock wrote: »

If they start acting the shyte with checks coming from GB to NI though, then there'll have to be something in the future relationship that we can use to punish them with. If they leave with no deal at the end of 2020, there wouldn't be any comeback available to the EU.

They don't need a comeback, it would be a WTO issue, members would lodge objections they are not receiving the same treatment under MFN, so they would be WTO scansions, penalties etc...

Joe_ Public · 24-10-2019 03:32PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The remainers are totally disingenuous.

Up until a week or two a go they were all saying you can't have a land border - the peace process etc etc...

...because it suited their agenda.

Now they are against an Irish sea "border".

...because it suits their agenda.

I'm pretty angry at how this island is being kicked around like a football to suit agendas.

They should just leave already. The whole lot of them can do more harm than they have already done.

The whole of Britain should be ashamed of it's self over it's behaviour these last few years from all sides.

Given they are remainers whats the big issue with them being against any type of border? Isnt that the whole point of remaining?

Tea Shock · 24-10-2019 03:32PM

Water John wrote: »

Macron may be correct. Only give them a sort period to get the Deal through Parliament, not enough time to mess around and call a GE.
After all, the EU doesn't want to get involved in a country's domestic affairs.

They'll never say it out loud, but I think the EU would be more than willing to lean towards anything that would be more likely to take the Tory's out of power. Leaving them to have run an election campaign while the UK are still in the EU, after all Johnson's bluster over the last 5 months of "We will be leaving on October 31st come what may", with an election campaign then occurring with them talking about a new exit date several months away, wouldn't play well and would be sure to split the eurosceptic vote!

Tea Shock · 24-10-2019 03:36PM

Jim2007 wrote: »

They don't need a comeback, it would be a WTO issue, members would lodge objections they are not receiving the same treatment under MFN, so they would be WTO scansions, penalties etc...

Not checking goods being moved within your own nation would not contravene most-favored-nation rules

MrMusician18 · 24-10-2019 03:37PM

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Despite your own agenda, the remainers are pointing out the obvious that no matter what way an agreement (never mind a no-deal) is completed, the UK will in absolutely no measurable way be better off!
It is a bit of a no-brainer really!

In fairness he has a point. Remainers (hint is in the name) have been using every crack in the plan that they can find in order to try to lever a way to overturn the result.

Do I really believe that remainers give two hoots about NI? Some do of course, and those people are easy to spot (since they cared before Brexit) but the majority are using it to further their own agenda.

Zubeneschamali · 24-10-2019 03:38PM

Danzy wrote: »

No Deal is even less likely than a revocation of article 50. If no deal received a dozen votes in the Commons, it would be a shock to all.

How about if it received 308 votes, as at 7 pm on the 13th March, or 278, as at 7.33 pm on that date?

woohoo!!! · 24-10-2019 03:40PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Given they are remainers whats the big issue with them being against any type of border? Isnt that the whole point of remaining?

It's the implication that the DUP should have a veto. Yet again British politicians demonstrating lack of knowledge or care on Ireland, just something to be used and discarded.

Joe_ Public · 24-10-2019 03:55PM

woohoo!!! wrote: »

It's the implication that the DUP should have a veto. Yet again British politicians demonstrating lack of knowledge or care on Ireland, just something to be used and discarded.

I would have thought its very simple. Remainers dont want any dup veto because by staying in the EU it doesnt arise. Isnt that agenda fairly crystal clear? Labour have brexiteers who want a CU and close sm alignment so again the issue doesnt arise. And thats a compromisise position available to the gov if it is serious about getting its deal through.

Akrasia · 24-10-2019 04:31PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Given they are remainers whats the big issue with them being against any type of border? Isnt that the whole point of remaining?

Yep

When the leavers have no good ideas, there's nothing wrong with remainers going
We don't like this idea because it shafts the good friday agreement
and We don't like this other idea because it shafts the United Kingdom

The brexiters need to defend their brexit, let the remainers defend remaining in the EU

LeinsterDub · 24-10-2019 04:34PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The remainers are totally disingenuous.

Up until a week or two a go they were all saying you can't have a land border - the peace process etc etc...

...because it suited their agenda.

Now they are against an Irish sea "border".

...because it suits their agenda.

I'm pretty angry at how this island is being kicked around like a football to suit agendas.

They should just leave already. The whole lot of them can do more harm than they have already done.

The whole of Britain should be ashamed of it's self over it's behaviour these last few years from all sides.

In the way the leavers said no Prime Minister could vote for a border in the sea, that they'd say by the DUP, no deal wasn't an option....

Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

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