Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Rumours abound on Twitter that Johnson is going to push for a mid December election

Tuesday December 10th apparently.

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Rumours abound on Twitter that Johnson is going to push for a mid December election

But how can he get the election?

listermint wrote: »

But how can he get the election?

While its in labours interests to keep him stewing for as long as possible i do wonder if this waiting for no deal line is going to wear thin very soon. If extension is settled this week for instance, how can labour seriously keep refusing it?

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I think cummings is the one desperate for quick election on a people v parliament ticket so he can wallow in a gloves off dirty campaign.

Indeed, but many think it will be a gamble. Two unknowns are how the Lib Dems and the Brexit Party will fare and how much damage they can do to Con and Lab.

Strazdas wrote: »

Indeed, but many think it will be a gamble. Two unknowns are how the Lib Dems and the Brexit Party will fare and how much damage they can do to Con and Lab.

Lib Dems will do decent i'd think, probably hurt labour while damage BP could do to tories is considerable. So volatile its really hard to be certain. If you get some effective alliances working on either side, could have a real bearing.

Strazdas wrote: »

If it was a hung parliament again, it would send the Brexit process right back to square one. It would make it virtually impossible to get any WA through.

It might even come to a point that they will simply say the only way is a binding referendum.

That will take six months alone to agree wording and options

Strazdas wrote: »

If it was a hung parliament again, it would send the Brexit process right back to square one. It would make it virtually impossible to get any WA through.

If Labour did reasonably ok, you might get a situation where the pressure came on lib dems to back corbyn for pm so to get referendum in place. With snp, green and other support. What odds on all that though? Plus, it would require yet another extension. No easy way out!

listermint wrote: »

But how can he get the election?

Corbyn said to be backing an election if No Deal Brexit is ruled out, which isn't asking much as so few MPs want, a dozen?

His shadow cabinet want a 2nd referendum as part of it which is another joke, they want to avoid an election, understandably given the polling, they are looking tougher now than under Foot, according to the Guardian.

Real bind for the opposition there, if they don't want the deal, won't allow an election, people will hammer them the longer it goes on.

Doesn't matter what you think of Brexit, they are stuck in the ultimate gonzo political position at the moment.

Deleted User wrote: »

One thing I haven't seen much commentary on is Scotland's attitude to BJ's deal. If it goes through, it will drive the SNP nuts since they will look at how NI has a new status due to the new customs arrangements while they will be exiting fully from the EU. Surely there will be much unrest over this?

Nicola Sturgeon was on TV last week saying the deal was a complete disaster for Scotland, with virtually no positives.

marno21 wrote: »

Surely if no deal is ruled out pre-election, a post election Tory majority can just repeal the relevant legislation and plough the UK into the abyss?

Once the WAB passes No deal becomes the default when they inevitably fail to get a FTA at the end of 2020 and if the government have a decent majority of MPs elected on a hardline brexit at all costs mandate, (including a coalition with the Brexit party)there is nothing the opposition can do to stop it

Akrasia wrote: »

Once the WAB passes No deal becomes the default when they inevitably fail to get a FTA at the end of 2020 and if the government have a decent majority of MPs elected on a hardline brexit at all costs mandate, (including a coalition with the Brexit party)there is nothing the opposition can do to stop it

There is also the danger of a no deal exit if an election is called and Johnson changes the date to after the new extension end date. That's what Labour are afraid of.

Strazdas wrote: »

Nicola Sturgeon was on TV last week saying the deal was a complete disaster for Scotland, with virtually no positives.

She has to say that, but the whole mess is a huge boost for the SNP. After Independence they should give Cameron, May and Johnson medals.

Akrasia wrote: »

if the government have a decent majority of MPs elected on a hardline brexit at all costs mandate, (including a coalition with the Brexit party)there is nothing the opposition can do to stop it

Imagine you are trading in your car for a new one, and the deal is taking more time than you allowed for it (even though everyone warned you it would). So you go out to your current car and break a few windows.

That'll show the salesman you mean business!

That's pretty much what deliberately leaving talks on the Future Relationship during the Transition Period would be like: disrupt trade by jumping to WTO rules so that you can start the same negotiation for a Free Trade Deal from a weaker position and under enormously more pressure to get the deal done. Mad stuff.

prawnsambo wrote: »

Yeah. It's a knotty problem. I can't see a way to nullify it. Earliest election date is now December 10th (I think). And there's an issue with holding it later than that before Christmas as the polling stations (in schools) won't be available because of school exams. Which pushes it into the new year. And then it gets really squeaky.

Absolutely. Does the HoC stop sitting once an election is called ? Presumably if an election is called shortly the house won't have time to scrutinise and pass the required legislation for the WA/WAB, or will it ?
I think they're definitely going to need a longer or another extension come January, especially if the election isn't held until mid Jan - whatever new government is returned will need the time.

Its all a bit mad Ted !