Fri/Sat 25th-26th Oct 2019 : Rainfall Warning for SE.

Kermit.de.frog · 23-10-2019 5:37am #1

Main risks: Flooding, Snowfall
Potential Warnings: Yellow

During Thursday night and Friday morning pulses of heavy rain will cross the country from the southwest. Through the day heavy rain is expected in Munster and Leinster. Lighter and more patchy in Connaught/Ulster.

There is a risk of spot flooding.

It's meeting very cold air from the northwest. There is a risk of snowfall inland (temporary accumulations here) to low levels and on mountains. Rain and sleet elsewhere on coasts. Special attention should be given to the Wicklow mountains here which look particularly vulnerable to heavy snowfall because of the way this system is likely to pivot.

It will be a bitterly cold day with temperatures ranging from 0 - 4c (coldest in the south and east).

A bitterly cold night follows with temperatures sub zero for most (down to -3 or -4c in places) with ice and frost widespread.

Winds northeasterly, shifting to northwesterly later in the day.

Whether you get snow or not it will be a shock to the system so keep in mind the risks when travelling or out and about.

I'll update again this evening.

Graces7 · 23-10-2019 6:55am

OH MY!

OOOOOOOOOOOO! MYYYYYYYYYYYYYY!

:);)

Shiver me timbers..

sjb25 · 23-10-2019 7:01am

The s word on the boards weather forum

pauldry · 23-10-2019 7:22am

Looks like our Winter will be on a Friday this year

Comhrá · 23-10-2019 8:48am

....A bitterly cold night follows with temperatures sub zero for most (down to -3 or -4c in places) with ice and frost widespread.....

Wow, that's pretty extreme for late October, bearing in mind it's still Autumn.

Villain · 23-10-2019 8:51am

ECMWF shifts the low further Southeast but GFS sticking to its guns, will be interesting to watch, hoping for a covering on Lugnaquilla by Saturday morning to get a nice early icy mountain hike in

dsmythy · 23-10-2019 8:54am

Guess I better enjoy what seems to be setting up to be a nice October day today.

I think anyone off a mountain top should take a rain check on the snow though. First icy conditions potentially. Could catch some interests out.

sryanbruen · 23-10-2019 8:58am

Comhra wrote: »

Wow, that's pretty extreme for late October, bearing in mind it's still Autumn.

Max temperatures probably be more remarkable to be honest. Got down to -4.7C at the end of October last year here.

TTLF · 23-10-2019 10:00am

Might hop on the bus up to enniskerry the Saturday if There’s any lying snow In the Wicklow mts

vizualpics · 23-10-2019 10:15am

Has MT issued his Winter Forecast yet? Any links to same?

Zzippy · 23-10-2019 10:21am

Ah sh!te. I still have late tomatoes ripening in the polytunnel, was hoping for no frost for a few weeks yet.

Captain Snow · 23-10-2019 10:24am

Friday the cold arrives. 528 Dam arrives.

Saturday 528 Dam fragments across Ireland.
Ninja Snow across Ireland.

This Mornings ECM wants to keep us on the cold side. Messy High Pressure Building south of Greenland. LPs being kept out.

Friday Snow Risk

Friday Snow Depth (Experimental).

arctictree · 23-10-2019 11:18am

Looking snowy for the south east on Friday according to the 06z GFS. Best spots slightly inland and on higher ground.

Stevieluvsye · 23-10-2019 11:19am

Good stuff. Off on Friday. Might see some action

Billcarson · 23-10-2019 11:20am

Surely max daytime temps on Friday won't be as cold as 0- 4c? The hills yes, but at low levels??

Supercell · 23-10-2019 11:45am

Trip up the mountains this weekend so. Saw snow in Annamoe when I lived there before in October so its definitely possible, great stuff!

RobertKK · 23-10-2019 12:00pm

Looks good for the high ground for Kilkenny according to the charts.

Gonzo · 23-10-2019 12:12pm

Billcarson wrote: »

Surely max daytime temps on Friday won't be as cold as 0- 4c? The hills yes, but at low levels??

They could well be in parts of Wicklow, Carlow and Kilkenny. more like 5 to 7C elsewhere.

57-580UK.GIF?23-6

The system is further south yet again today, wintry falls look more restricted to high ground in Wicklow and Kilkenny. If the system moves much further south, it could well miss us altogether.

57-574UK.GIF?23-6

Gonzo · 23-10-2019 12:19pm

Frost also looks like an issue with temperatures below 0C at night for much of the country from Friday to Tuesday.

Saturday morning:
72-580UK.GIF?23-6

Sunday morning:
96-580UK.GIF?23-6

bazlers · 23-10-2019 12:39pm

Would I be right in saying the majority of the snow from the beast from the east was from streams off the sea rather than any particular advancing front?

highdef · 23-10-2019 12:45pm

bazlers wrote: »

Would I be right in saying the majority of the snow from the beast from the east was from streams off the sea rather than any particular advancing front?

No, the majority of the intense snow was from a weather system/front (Emma) advancing from the south. Many parts of the east of Ireland (especially the east midlands) did experience a lot of snow before the main weather front arrived (Beast from the East) by way of often prolonged and heavy snow showers. But the system from the south did give (in most places) the main bulk of the snow.

Gonzo · 23-10-2019 12:50pm

bazlers wrote: »

Would I be right in saying the majority of the snow from the beast from the east was from streams off the sea rather than any particular advancing front?

The Beast from the East gave prolonged snow showers in a narrow band stretching from Dublin, through Kildare and on into parts of Westmeath and Offally. Snow showers were rather isolated further north and south of there with many places seeing nothing at all until Storm Emma. It wasn't untill Storm Emma got going that many places received the majority of their snowfall over a 24 to 36 hour period.

Spanish Eyes · 23-10-2019 12:53pm

I'll be in Estepona Spain, current temp 24d and sunny!

Sorry to miss the snow though ha ha.

realdanbreen · 23-10-2019 12:55pm

Its kinda weird that there are adults on here that actually think getting snow is 'great stuff' !

Stevieluvsye · 23-10-2019 12:57pm

realdanbreen wrote: »

Its kinda weird that there are adults on here that actually think getting snow is 'great stuff' !

I'd thread carefully around here with comments like that :pac:

23-10-2019 12:59pm

realdanbreen wrote: »

Its kinda weird that there are adults on here that actually think getting snow is 'great stuff' !

Awwww the thought of snow reminds me of childhood and fun. Now I know it doesn’t usually end up fun if you’re an adult. But happy thoughts are good for mental health.

Tabnabs · 23-10-2019 12:59pm

realdanbreen wrote: »

Its kinda weird that there are adults on here that actually think getting snow is 'great stuff' !

compsys · 23-10-2019 1:08pm

realdanbreen wrote: »

Its kinda weird that there are adults on here that actually think getting snow is 'great stuff' !

Why is that?

highdef · 23-10-2019 1:20pm

Snow chances are looking slimmer and slimmer as time passes. It's really only been GFS that had been hinting at a possible snow event. None of the other models were having much/any of it. The more regular posters here also know that this latest iteration of the GFS model has had a known cold bias and roll-out of it was delayed as the algorithms were tinkered with. It's quite possible that cold bias has not been fully sorted out and it is really as we begin to move into the autumn/winter period that we see evidence of it.

It's also quite plausible that GFS is just over doing the cold in this particular instance as a once-off but only time will tell.

It's also plausible that the GFS is right and all the other are wrong but we'll know the answer to that in about 48 hours from now :P

bazlers · 23-10-2019 1:22pm

highdef wrote: »

No, the majority of the intense snow was from a weather system/front (Emma) advancing from the south. Many parts of the east of Ireland (especially the east midlands) did experience a lot of snow before the main weather front arrived (Beast from the East) by way of often prolonged and heavy snow showers. But the system from the south did give (in most places) the main bulk of the

So the south east got the majority from the actual approaching front, then it petered out the further north it went. Where as Midlands and east was from the streamers the previous day.

arctictree · 23-10-2019 1:29pm

bazlers wrote: »

highdef wrote: »

No, the majority of the intense snow was from a weather system/front (Emma) advancing from the south. Many parts of the east of Ireland (especially the east midlands) did experience a lot of snow before the main weather front arrived (Beast from the East) by way of often prolonged and heavy snow showers. But the system from the south did give (in most places) the main bulk of the

So the south east got the majority from the actual approaching front, then it petered out the further north it went. Where as Midlands and east was from the streamers the previous day.

My location, (East Wicklow) completely missed the streamers although a few miles to the North of me got plastered. Only really got snow from the storm, but then got nearly a meter of it. I remember it was -2c at midday the day before the storm.

Graces7 · 23-10-2019 1:49pm

Stevieluvsye wrote: »

I'd thread carefully around here with comments like that :pac:

lol.. thoughts are free though!

Villain · 23-10-2019 2:57pm

realdanbreen wrote: »

Its kinda weird that there are adults on here that actually think getting snow is 'great stuff' !

No, what’s weird is people thinking that it matters what adults think about the weather, the weather certainly doesn’t care.

Now let it snow, let it snow, let it snow

Being serious though it is really only GFS showing anything interesting, ECMWF and ICON have shifted south and don’t support snow, well only on the highest peaks.

It seems an awful lot of people believe GFS based on questions I’m getting!

Stevieluvsye · 23-10-2019 2:59pm

Villain wrote: »

No, what’s weird is people thinking that it matters what adults think about the weather, the weather certainly doesn’t care.

Now let it snow, let it snow, let it snow

Being serious though it is really only GFS showing anything interesting, ECMWF and ICON have shifted south and don’t support snow, well only on the highest peaks.

It seems an awful lot of people believe GFS based on questions I’m getting!

Ye but everyone knows GFS stands for "Good for Snow" always right for the white stuff

jambofc · 23-10-2019 3:23pm

this is a non event apart from the summits if you ask me

realdanbreen · 23-10-2019 3:58pm

Stevieluvsye wrote: »

I'd thread carefully around here with comments like that :pac:

Oh Oh! You sound like you might be from Oughterard or Ballinamore! :eek:

Stevieluvsye · 23-10-2019 3:59pm

realdanbreen wrote: »

Oh Oh! You sound like you might be from Oughterard or Ballinamore! :eek:

Nah bud, i couldn't give two fiddlers but some of this lot, they take their weather watching VERY seriously

realdanbreen · 23-10-2019 4:06pm

Stevieluvsye wrote: »

Nah bud, i couldn't give two fiddlers but some of this lot, they take their weather watching VERY seriously

Really! I mean I can sort of understand those guys that go chasing Tornadoes and stuff in the states for the thrill . But we get nothing very exciting weaterwise in this country. We have never had a tornado or Hurricane of note and when we got heavy snow for a few days a couple of years ago the whole place closed down!

odyboody · 23-10-2019 4:08pm

Villain wrote: »

No, what’s weird is people thinking that it matters what adults think about the weather, the weather certainly doesn’t care.

Now let it snow, let it snow, let it snow

Being serious though it is really only GFS showing anything interesting, ECMWF and ICON have shifted south and don’t support snow, well only on the highest peaks.

It seems an awful lot of people believe GFS based on questions I’m getting!

Think the people who asking probably never heard of the GFS, they get their weather from DJ's and Red Top papers, (notice I didnt say News Papers)

ytpe2r5bxkn0c1 · 23-10-2019 4:19pm

I've a feeling this is just being hyped by those who want snow. Cold, yes. Snow anywhere but peaks, unlikely.

Kermit.de.frog · 23-10-2019 5:10pm

It's always fun to speculate

It does look like any snow mostly on high ground above circa 300 metres.

Wet type sleet/snow to lower levels at times well inland away from windward coasts in the east.

Bigger issue probably flooding.

Looks an ugly, uncomfortable, cold autumn day for most.

Northwest looking dryer and brighter.

q85dw7osi4lebg · 23-10-2019 5:48pm

In before damp squib comments from the usual army

Meteorite58 · 23-10-2019 6:00pm

An interesting one all right, been watching the charts the last few days and no doubt that the GFS is leading the way and again on the latest run is very bullish with the coldest 850 hPa temps and bringing the low further in over the country and showing the highest precipitation levels and making it more a Fri / Sat event with some very heavy rain early Sat morning. A useful event this early in the season to check how the GFS performs. At the moment showing widespread 10cm + Snow across large parts of the Southern half of the country early Sat with temps staying around 0C in places up until early Sat afternoon !!!! A cold bias , hmmm :rolleyes:

ECM 06Z having none of it , ARPEGE 12Z showing some wintry stuff but keeping the bulk of the rainfall over the sea, ICON has moved the LP closer and more over the country on the latest run with bigger rainfall accumulations on the 12Z ( possible flooding in Southern counties ), showing wintry falls but temps far too high for anything to stick bar the highest ground.

Nothing certain yet with small changes in the charts having big effects one way or the other.

Artane2002 · 23-10-2019 6:07pm

I have to say, these are probably the most interesting charts I've seen since that failed easterly last year if not even more interesting. There is a very sharp temperature gradient running across England, somewhere there is going to get absolutely drenched. Heavy enough rain over here too. We all know sleet/snow is going to be mostly for high ground and that's fine, but it is amusing to be talking about snow potential in October. That's not to mention the exceptionally low daytime temperatures seen on the charts.

nacho libre · 23-10-2019 6:43pm

Artane2002 wrote: »

I have to say, these are probably the most interesting charts I've seen since that failed easterly last year if not even more interesting. There is a very sharp temperature gradient running across England, somewhere there is going to get absolutely drenched. Heavy enough rain over here too. We all know sleet/snow is going to be mostly for high ground and that's fine, but it is amusing to be talking about snow potential in October. That's not to mention the exceptionally low daytime temperatures seen on the charts.

Yes, parts of England and Wales could end up with 60mm of rain from this.
As you say it's not often we see the potential for snow at any level in October.
It could be a fun day on the Wicklow mountains this weekend!

Gonzo · 23-10-2019 7:12pm

nacho libre wrote: »

Yes, parts of England and Wales could end up with 60mm of rain from this.
As you say it's not often we see the potential for snow at any level in October.
It could be a fun day on the Wicklow mountains this weekend!

if it happens then it could be early winter for many places. America/Canada and Scandinavia have had a few proper snow storms and winter conditions at times over the past month. A snowfall in Ireland a week before the end of October is incredibly early too, even if it's restricted to mountain tops. Aside from Friday's fun, most of us could see plenty of night frosts over the next 1 to 2 weeks. I don't think I saw frost more than 3 or 4 times through the entirety of last winter.

Billcarson · 23-10-2019 7:16pm

Last Oct saw a number of frosts, then hardly any from early nov until well into jan.

sryanbruen · 23-10-2019 7:16pm

Even Dublin Airport, which some regard as a frost hollow, did not see a single air frost between 30 Oct and 17 Jan last year.

Billcarson · 23-10-2019 7:19pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

Even Dublin Airport, which some regard as a frost hollow, did not see a single air frost between 30 Oct and 17 Jan last year.

Did dublin airport record its coldest oct night last yr,if I remember?

sryanbruen · 23-10-2019 7:20pm

Billcarson wrote: »

Did dublin airport record its coldest oct night last yr,if I remember?

Yes, the -4.7C that I mentioned earlier in this thread. Had to wait until 31st January to see a lower temperature than that!

arctictree · 23-10-2019 7:24pm

Lying snow in October in my experience is a one in 8 year event here in Wicklow.

Fri/Sat 25th-26th Oct 2019 : Rainfall Warning for SE.

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